On Wednesday 21 October 2015, the British Embassy in Paris hosted a workshop which examined recent severe weather events in France and the UK and looked at how learning from these events could be shared between the two countries. Participating on the day were the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Mark Walport, former vice-chair of IPCC WKI Dr. Jean Jouzel, and representatives from the Met Office and Meteo France, UK and French government departments with a role in national emergency planning and response, and the French and UK insurance sectors.

1. www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr
Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy
France – UK Workshop on
Resilience to Severe Weather
21 October 2015
Flood forecasting
in France
Isabelle LELEU
SCHAPI
(Central Service for Hydrometeorology and
Support to Flood Forecasting)
General Directorate for Risk Prevention

2. 2
Flood Forecasting in France
 The « Vigicrues » system today
 Plans for tomorrow

3. 3
The « Vigicrues » system today (1)
 A flood vigilance map : provides risk levels on the river
sections that are monitored by the State services (~22000 km)
4 colours used :
With vigilance reports, at both national and local levels,
when possible including forecasts (expected values of
water level or flow)

4. 4
The « Vigicrues » system today (2)
 Access to real time data
> 1500 water level
or flow stations

5. 5
The « Vigicrues » system today (3)
 The vigilance information is updated at least twice a day
(at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm)
 Vigilance maps and reports (with forecasts) are made
available to the public via the Internet :
http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr
 They are simultaneously pushed to the civil security
and local authorities
→ The « Vigicrues » system is regularly updated and
extended in a process of continous improvement and
progress, and through feedback on past events.

6. 6
Plans for tomorrow (1)
 The "Vigicrues" system currently gives satisfaction but
improvement needs were expressed by different types
of users :
 Publish graphs combining water level (or flow)
observations and forecasts
 Predicting areas likely to be flooded (in connection
with the water level forecasts)
 Better warn people about the risk of flash floods
 Develop custom services on mobile
→ Major projects have been carried out for several years
to meet these needs.

7. 7
Plans for tomorrow (2)
Predicting areas likely to be flooded
Flooded area scenarios in
connection with 3 water levels
at a given hydrometric station
Mapping of potential flooded
areas related to Custines station
(Moselle river in France)
(scan25® from IGN ;
potential flooded areas from
©DREAL Lorraine /
SPC Meuse-Moselle)

8. 8
Prefects
are
informed
Plans for tomorrow (3)
Better warn people about the risk of flash floods
Observed rainfall amount
(from radar data)
Automatic hydrological modeling
in each river basin and comparison of
predicted flow with critical thresholds
River basins
expected to
exceed threshold
Automated Flash Flood warningAutomated Flash Flood warning
sent to concerned municipalitiessent to concerned municipalities

9. 9
Plans for tomorrow (4)
 Early 2016 :
 Graphs combining observations and forecasts on
« Vigicrues » website
 Potential flooded area maps produced for > 20 % of our
forecasting points (~1400 municipalities are already concerned)
→ first access restricted to local authorities
 End of 2016 :
 Opening of the automated Flash Flood warning service
 Later (2017/2018) :
 A more ergonomic « Vigicrues » website offering a wider range
of services
 With custom services on mobile
→ To better assist the national and local authorities,
communities, economic actors, stakeholders and individuals
in crisis management

10. www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr
Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy
Thank you !
Tarn river in Arthès (Tarn, France) - Nov 2011