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Panel 1: History of Resilience & the Sociology of Climate Change
- 4. Overheated))
- 5. Water)Wars)
- 7. Heat4Related)Deaths)and)Excess)Deaths,) July)1995) Excess)Deaths)=)739) Heat4related)Deaths)=)521)
- 35. ! ! ! RBD$University:$$ $Feb$19320,$2016,$at$Columbia$&$NYU$ ! ! Panel on History of Resilience ! ! Klaus$H.$Jacob$ ! khj1@columbia.edu! ! ! ! Lamont5Doherty!Earth!Observatory! Earth!Ins>tute! Columbia$University$ ! !
- 36. Some Basic Observations in the Context of Disaster Resilience • Extreme Natural Events are part of the Earth’s Processes • These natural events have not turned into (Un-)Natural Disasters until Civilizations got into Nature’s harm’s way: Dissociation of Modern Societies from ‘Living with Nature’ • The building of Cities and Infrastructure, often in grotesque denial of these natural processes and their potential Hazards, can turn disasters into catastrophes. • With Technological Development (Industrialization, Energy, Transportation Agro-Industry, largely based on Fossil Fuels) we now have Climate Change as an important man-made amplifier of natural hazards that increasingly expose our unprepared societal and physically built assets to exponentially rising risks. Example: Sea Level Rise. • While much of the Vulnerability of Human Societies comes from Socio-Economic Pressures (Including Population Explosion), the increasing Risks from Extreme ‘Natural’ Events amplifies and accelerates the Risks, Impacts and Social Vulnerabilities.
- 37. EXAMPLES:
- 38. The Future History: The Design of Solutions. What are the Needed Elements: • Understand and Quantify the Hazards of ‘Natural” Processes (Earth Science, Climate Science, ….) • Understand the Vulnerabilities (“Fragilities”) of our Social and Built Assets to these Hazards (Tasks for the social, economics, geo-science, and engineering disciplines). • Quantify and Map the Risks that exist now, and how they are likely to evolve in time and space, with and without intervention. • Then let the education and information age loose on the political, economic, social, psychological interplay, and see whether we make rational, informed decisions, or run -- like lemmings -- over the cliff in sheer denial of the obvious.
- 39. EXAMPLES:
- 40. Some Warnings for Urban Planners and Designers (and all of us): • Protection (by engineered solutions) of coastal habitats from the Rising Seas is likely to be unsuccessful in the long run. In fact it may cause sooner or later great human loss and instabilities. • Adaptation by ‘Living with the Water’ (technological solutions to a limited extent), but more likely by well planned and socially well managed Retreat to Higher Ground (or to regions with sufficient water supply in drought-stricken portions of the Earth) is more likely to be successful and sustainable. • This requires setting aside the intellectual, financial, and social resources commensurate with this huge task. • This is a matter of Inter-generational Equity and Justice • There is a Moral Imperative that currently seems to be Lacking (Not withstanding Glimmers of Efforts like COP21).
- 42. The Resilience of Resilience Thinking Jesse M. Keenan
- 43. Resilience of “Old” People Playing Sports?
- 44. Google Trends
- 45. Google Trends
- 46. Highlights Hosseini, S., Barker, K. & Ramirez-Marquez, J. (2016), A Review of Definitions and Measures of System Resilience. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 145, 47-61. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.006
- 47. Resilience & Adaptive Cycle Holling (1973)
- 48. Diverse Perspectives Socio-Economic Resilience1 Engineering Resilience Software Resilience2 1GEM Nexus (2016). 2Malavotla, et al. (2014). Enhancing Architecture Design Decisions in Evolution with Group Decision Making Principles, SEREN.
- 49. Two Theories of Resilience Reversion to the Status Quo 1Socio-economic Resilience, Wikipedia. Retrieved 2-15-15.. Unified Theory1
- 50. Resilience ≠ Absolute Good Complexity Subjectivity Institutional Neoliberal: Individual v. Collective
- 51. Institutional Limitations of Resilience “One person’s resilience may be another’s vulnerability…. If collective alternatives are not sought, the existing institutions that have contributed to such predicaments not only remain unchallenged, but are relied upon to steer societal responses based on the same underlying assumptions that first led to the problems” Alexander, David E. 2013. Resilience and Disaster Risk Reduction: An Etymological Journey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13 (11), 2707– 2716. pg. 2714.
- 52. Institutional Limitations of Resilience "It is crucial to note that there can also be a negative dimension of having high resilience. A system can sometimes become resilient in a less desirable regime. For instance, urban regions besieged by impoverishment may be stuck in “poverty traps,” where a suite of socioeconomic factors have induced a highly robust state of squalor. Low levels of education, endemism of substance abuse, and poor quality of governance can generate a series of tight feedback loops that prove immensely difficult to be overcome. The same genre of dynamics can also affect rural regions, urban fringes, and other socio-ecological systems, manifesting in environmental degradation and the depletion of valuable ecosystem services. This is the case in many urban areas of the developing world, and illustrates that resilience can work as both a vehicle of sustainability and an agent of destitution.” [Emphasis Added] Wu, J. & Wu, T. (2012). Ecological Resilience as a Foundation for Urban Design and Sustainability. In Pickett, S.T.A., Cadenasso, M.L. & McGrath, B. (Eds.), Ecological Resilience and Urban Design (pp. 211-229). New York, NY.: Springer. Pg. 224.
- 53. Empirical Limits to Resilience State of Rio de Janeiro, Reuters (2011).
- 54. Empirical Limits to Resilience Amundsen, H. (2012). Illusions of resilience? An Analysis of Community Responses to Change in Northern Norway. Ecology and Society 17(4), 46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05142-170446
- 55. Empirical Limits to Resilience John Bacus (2011)
- 56. Empirical Limits to Resilience ODKW (2015)
- 57. RBD-U Resilience Technical Resilience Building Codes Adaptive Materials Intelligent Systems Community Resilience Ad Hoc Networks Participatory Urbanism Managed Interdependencies
- 58. Future of Resilience Research
- 59. Future of Resilience Research Hosseini, S., Barker, K. & Ramirez-Marquez, J. (2016), A Review of Definitions and Measures of System Resilience, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 145, 47-61. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.006 Lam, N.S.N., Reams, M., Kenan, L., Li, Chi & Mata, L.P. (2016). Measuring Community Resilience to Coastal Hazards Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Natural Hazards Review, 17(1), 04015013-1-12.