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Yahara 2070 Introduction for Undergraduate Module
The document discusses potential futures for the Yahara watershed, emphasizing the interplay between human actions and ecological systems. It identifies long-term challenges such as agricultural intensification, urban development, and climate change that affect ecosystem services and water quality. Four scenarios are proposed to stimulate discussions about future choices, trade-offs, and the resilience of the watershed by connecting different perspectives and potential pathways.
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Yahara 2070 Introduction for Undergraduate Module
- 1. Possible futures forthe Yahara Watershed The Science of Future Thinking
- 2. “People are embeddedparts of the biosphere and shape it, from local to global scales, from the past to the future. At the same time people are fundamentally dependent on the capacity of the biosphere to sustain human development.” -- Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Center Future thinking is important because…
- 3. But sustaining natureand human development is a complex problem: • Uncertainty is high. • Time frames of environmental change span many generations. • People will reach different conclusions. • Multiple solutions are “good enough.”
- 4. To approach complexproblems, we can • Assume uncertainty is large, changeable, and co-created by people and nature. • Emphasize the diversity of perspectives. • Stress learning by individuals and groups. • Expect the unexpected.
- 5. “While the futureis uncertain and much of it is beyond our control, we can control many aspects of it. We choose our future: we create it by what we do or fail to do.” – Wendy Schultz, futurist Importantly, we must recognize we can make choices about the future.
- 6. TIME Principle 1: Throughouttime, we can make choices that will affect future outcomes.
- 7. Principle 2: Wecan think about what might happen as a result of these choices, highlighting alternative pathways to alternative futures.
- 8. Scenarios help usconsider these pathways • Scenarios are provocative, plausible stories about the future with contrasting social and environmental conditions. • They explore questions of “What if?” • They facilitate long-term thinking. • They help us learn ways to address change and vulnerability. 20702010
- 9. To 2070 Today Principle 3:We can anticipate future consequences of the alternatives. Scenarios help us with this, too. The future is already here; it’s just unevenly distributed. - William Gibson, speculative fiction writer
- 11. Water quality Groundwater supply ClimateregulationCrop production Flood regulation Recreation Aesthetics The complex problem: How could changes in land use, climate, and human demand impact ecosystem services, or natural benefits, for future generations in the Yahara Watershed?
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- 13. Long-term Changes andChallenges • Intensification of dairy agriculture – Trend towards fewer farms and cows but WAY more milk (and manure) per cow – Main source of water quality impairment • Increasing demand for biofuels • Urban development – Increase in impervious surfaces lake flooding – Loss of agricultural land concentration of manure • Changes in climate – Increase in annual precipitation – More frequent heavy rainfall events
- 14. These changes spangenerations Major Changes in the Yahara Watershed 1800-present
- 15. A consequence: persistentwater quality problems Nutrient pollution in lakes and streams – Multiple non-point sources (manure, agricultural fertilizer, urban, erosion) – Algal blooms, public health & aesthetics issues – 33 years of reduction efforts, but undetectable reduction in P-loading to lakes
- 16. What futures forwater and people are possible, given these long-term challenges? What is a desirable future, and what solutions can lead us there?
- 17. Yahara 2070’s creationstory Two Generations
- 18. Stories connect uswith future generations.
- 19. In the worldthere are lots of perspectives.
- 20. We sampled perspectivesfrom the Yahara Watershed through interviews and workshops, clustered them into themes, Illustrations by John Miller and condensed them into a few stories.
- 21. The Stories Tentative Name: Nested Watersheds Abandonment & Renewal Accelerated Innovation Connected Communities Dynamics:Adaptation Transformation Adaptation Transformation Key Factor in Change: Government Inaction Technology Values Nutshell: Government intervention maintains nature’s benefits Disaster decreases population, leads to reorganization Massive growth in technology businesses, including green tech Global shift in values toward sustainability Name: Each based on a different set of human choices and biophysical events
- 22. The “Atoms” Translations of thestories into numbers that a biophysical computer model can understand Models Narratives
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- 25. Model results: Ecosystemservices in the Yahara • Food production (for animals and humans) • Biofuel production (grass feedstocks) • Climate regulation (ecosystem carbon storage) • Freshwater supply (groundwater recharge) • Flood regulation (lake levels, flooding extent) • Groundwater quality (nitrate leaching) • Surface water quality (P loading to lakes)
- 26. Stories + Atoms= Implications for future human well-being Accelerated Innovation Nested Watersheds Connected Communities Abandonment & Renewal
- 27. The scenarios illuminatevulnerabilities we should consider preparing for. Example: Impacts of extreme flooding – The biggest flood in Abandonment & Renewal, 2031 – Similar to 2008 storm that flooded Lake Delton, WI
- 28. The four scenariostogether highlight choices and tradeoffs… What do we want—or need—the watershed to provide? What is biophysically possible and socially acceptable? What choices will allow us to handle shocks and build resilience? Abandonment & Renewal Nested Watersheds Connected Communities Accelerated Innovation
- 29. …and present cross-cuttingquestions for public discussion. What are the worst threats, and how can we avoid them? What are the best ideas or results, and how can we achieve them? What is a desirable future, and how do we get there? Abandonment & Renewal Nested Watersheds Connected Communities Accelerated Innovation
- 30. Ultimately, the scenarioscan help stimulate conversations about our vision of a desirable and possible future “If you want to build a ship, don’t start with collecting wood, cutting the plank and assigning work, but awake in people the longing for the wide and open sea.” – Antoine de Saint-Exupery (Citadelle)
- 31.