Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges
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NASF 2016: OUTLOOK POLICY AND TRADE SESSION Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges 1st March 2016, Bergen, Norway
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Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges
- 1. 11th Session of the NORTH ATLANTIC SEAFOOD FORUM MARCH 1–3, 2016 BERGEN, NORWAY 1 Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GLOBAL POLICY AND TRADE SESSION: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges
- 2. Total Landings of Marine Fisheries 2
- 3. Marine Fish Landings by Continent 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Milliontonnes Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania 3
- 4. Fish Landings: Developed vs Developing Nations 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0e+001e+072e+073e+074e+075e+076e+07 yrs Landings(t) 4
- 5. Global Trend in the State of World Marine Fish Stocks, 1974-2011 5
- 6. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012 Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption Non-food uses Per capita food fish supply Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg) 6
- 7. Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9% [Million Tonnes] 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China 61% Asia 91% Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production 7
- 8. 0 5 10 15 20 25 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Kgpercapitaperyear USDbillion World seafood exports World seafood consumption Linear (World seafood exports) Linear (World seafood consumption) Globalization in a graph: world seafood exports vs world average seafood consumption 1976 to 2014 8
- 9. 35.2% 35.4% 35.6% 35.8% 36.0% 36.2% 36.4% 36.6% 36.8% 37.0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2013 2014 Percentagetraded Milliontonnes Production volume Trade volume Proportion of production traded Production vs trade – last three years 9
- 10. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 USDbillion Developed Import Developing Import 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 USDbillion Developed Export Developing Export World seafood trade: developed vs developing 10
- 11. 0 50 100 150 200 250 Fish Meat (Terrestrial) Terrestrial meat price index vs. Fish price inde Jan 2000 – Jan 2015 11
- 12. Conclusion from this analyzes is: • Total production has stabilized over the last 20 years. • Capture fisheries landings have shifted from developed countries to developing countries. • Degree of overfishing has been stabilizing over the last 20 years but is still unacceptable. • Aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries in production for human consumption. • Great expansion in trade, particularly from developing countries to developed countries, is slowing down. 12
- 13. Conclusion from this analyzes is: A. Center of gravity for fish production has moved from developed countries to developing countries, where small scale fisheries will be extremely important. B. Center of gravity has moved from capture fisheries to aquaculture, particularly aquaculture in Asia. 13
- 14. Will there be any international trade in fish? 1. Political reasons? The general political environment is favorable. Something dramatic has to happen to change that. 2. What about demand? 14
- 15. • . OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022) Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red. WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red Country/ region Fish Demand (2030) Total fish prod. (2012, mil. tonne) S-D gap 2030 (col. 4 minus col. 3) kg/cap. Total (mil. tonne) WORLD 29.1 261.2 156.5 -104.7 S.S. Africa 10.8 15.1 6.9 -8.2 L.A. & C. 12.2 18.3 14.8 -3.4 N. Africa 12.9 3.7 2.8 -0.8 Europe 27.3 23.4 16.0 -7.4 N. America 29.8 12.9 6.7 -6.1 Oceania 31.9 1.8 1.4 -0.3 Asia 37.0 186.3 107.8 -78.5 Future fish supply and demand projections FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results) Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged 15
- 16. What about environmental reasons? a. Climate change: Video presentation delivered on the on the occasion of the Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact held in Boracay Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y b. We have done relatively well in the last 20 years post CCRF. The situation is stable in fisheries but the next 20 years may be different, continued challenge. c. Aquaculture has a very light ecological foot print compared to terrestrial animal protein production systems. However question marks around animal protein and trophic levels. 16
- 17. 17
- 18. Main Challenges There are many challenges some of which have been mentioned They fall into two categories: 1. Refining the management and governance of fisheries in developed and middle income-countries. 2. Refining the certification/traceability systems to benefit a broader group of producers. 18
- 19. Main Challenges However, there are two main fundamental major challenges, both in the shadow of climate change: • Aquaculture • Small Scale Fisheries • Decent Work 19
- 20. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING 20
Editor's Notes
- This graph shows the state of world fisheries production. It is obvious to all and we all know, that under present conditions, capture fisheries are leveling off at the same time as consumption per capita per year increases. This is made possible by the growth in aquaculture, the fastest growing food sector, which is now almost equal to capture fisheries for human consumption but we still have a sizeable portion going for non-human food consumption, mostly animal feed.
- The situation of wild stocks is unacceptable, too many stocks, or around 30% of stocks, are overfished. Even though the last two SOFIA reports have not reported an increase in this section the statistical trend has not changed. We both have to and can change this. The dark blue area in the graph shows the stocks which are harvested within biologically sustainable levels and the light blue shows the stocks that are fished unsustainably.
- One of the main driving elements behind the BGI is the future predicted scenarios we see in the modeling work we have done in the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of FAO on our own or with others. The OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections to 2022, shown top left on the slide, predicts increasing consumption in most regions of the world up to an average level of almost 21 kg per capita per annum compared to the widely recommended level of around 15 kg per capita per annum. The worrying exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows a drop from the already low level of below 10 kg per capita per annum to below 8 kg in the period. Red figures represent a drop from earlier values, black figures represent an increase. The results from the WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 projections show world consumptions at almost 19 kg per capita per annum. However, there are very varied changes in consumption between the regions. Most of them are positive or do not cause concern but the drop in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa down to below 6 kg, which is consistent with the OECD-FAO predictions, is very worrying as well as the drop in the already low levels in Latin America and the Caribbean region and in the North-Africa and Middle-East region to below 8 and 10 kg respectively. Here we should remember, as I mentioned earlier that the recommended levels are around 15 kg per capita per annum. It is surely obvious to all that were this to be the reality by 2030, it would be totally unacceptable to all of us. The present level of world fisheries and aquaculture consumption is 160 million tons a year. The predictions from the various scenarios in the Fish to 2030 report are all around 200 million tons per year. This is roughly consistent with the OECD-FAO outlook trend. In a simplified demand model done by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department using as drivers population growth and GDP growth based on the link between GDP and fish consumption, and essentially removing all production restrictions, the results are that the world would want to consume 260 million tons of fish by 2030 if supply was available. Under this scenario the world would consume on the average just shy of 30 kg per capita per annum and Sub-Saharan Africa, North-Africa and the Middle-East region and Latin America and the Caribbean region would all consume 3-5 kg more fish per capita per annum or 11-13 kg per capita per annum. This would be a result by 2030 that we could all live with but to get that result we need to produce more fish by 2030, to the tune of 100 million tons a year more than we produce today.
- To open the Philippines’s presentation, Please right click on the hyperlink and select “open Hyperlink”
- The fact is that from the point of view of an ecological footprint, as can be seen from this slide, aquaculture does very well compared to terrestrial animal protein food systems and some of them, like mollusks, supply additional ecosystem services beyond their food production. In general, then the run-of-the-mill aquaculture species does about as well, if not better, than the best of the terrestrial species are doing in this respect. I am not saying “stop producing meat” in terrestrial livestock food systems. Being an old terrestrial animal veterinarian I wouldn’t dream of doing that, but don’t tell me there are more environmental constraints to producing fish than other animal proteins, when the facts show the exact opposite.
- On Decent Work: Promoting decent work has become a priority along the whole seafood value chain. Media attention in the last period has brought spotlight on cases of labour exploitation, abuses including extreme cases of slavery and forced labour on board of fishing vessels and the whole value chain. The issue is widespread not only in developing countries but some cases were reported also in developed countries. The spectrum of non-decent working issues is very broad, including for example forced labour and slavery on board of fishing vessels, poor occupational safety and health in post-harvest operations, child labour in small-scale fisheries, lack of social dialogue, but also under-employment and low productivity. But there are also ‘good news’: governments, NGOs, CSOs and private sector companies are starting collaborations and give increasing attention towards the issue. A number of meetings have taken place recently in which decent work issues were discussed. These include for example the Seafood and Social Development Meeting, Engaging the Seafood Industry in the Social Development of Seafood-Producing Communities in Developing Countries in (Annapolis, USA, September 2015); the ILO experts’ meeting on labour exploitation in the Atlantic region (Oslo, November 2015) and the Seaweb Seafood Summit (Malta, February 2016). Throughout these meetings the need to promote decent work in the seafood sector through partnerships among different actors, including civil society and private sector was confirmed. Consumers in developed countries are paying more and more attention to sustainable and fair production/harvesting of seafood resources. This represents an opportunity for seafood companies to increase traceability along the value chain through the establishment of internal control mechanisms and collaboration with other enterprises in a pre-competitive environments. Governments have also a great role to play. Besides partnering with different actors, governments should enforce the legal framework in which the private sector should operate. In 2007, the ILO adopted the Work in Fishing Convention which sets standards for working and living conditions on board of fishing vessels. To date the convention have not entered into force and has been ratified only by 6 countries (and Morocco is one of those). In 2000, the International Labour Organization launched the Decent Work Agenda. FAO recognizes the promotion of quality jobs as a priority to fight poverty in rural areas. This includes promoting decent working conditions along the fish value chain. We started our efforts in 2014 facilitating a multi-stakeholder dialogue on the occasion of the FAO-Conxemar annual meeting. This so-called Vigo dialogue continued in 2015 and will take place also in 2016. Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Congo, France, Morocco and South Africa.
- Most of the pictures are taken from the Cancun Underwater Museum. MUSA It is a Non-Profit Organization based in Cancun México devoted to the Art of Conservation. This museum has a total of 500 sculptures with three different galleries submerged between three and six meters started in 2009 and completed at the end of 2013. A series of sculptures by Jason deCaires Taylor and five other Mexican sculptors of the Cancún National Marine Park. The museum was thought up by Marine Park Director Jaime Gonzalez Canto with the help of sculptor Jason deCaires Taylor. The underwater museum is to benefit the protection of the coral reefs. Artificial reefs are usually created by sunken ships and other objects that have fallen to the bottom of the ocean floor. The statues are a new technique and material for coral to grow and collect. Art was seen as saving the oceans. As each statue was made with PH-neutral cement, coral, seaweed, and algae are able to grow and develop better than on an old ship. Stable structures with a stable base have been known to be the perfect surface for an artificial reefs to form. The statues also feature holes in them, which allow marine wildlife to colonize and feed off the coral. Coral reefs will increase, but so will marine life. After only a short time under the water, the statues began to change and nature started to do its part in growing with the help of humans. In time, all the statues will be covered and their figures will barely be visible The museum also benefits the community. With the new installment, more tourists are coming and new tours are being created for them. A Cancun tour guide and diver, Juan Carlos Garrido worries the museum will not last. The museum is good for his touring and diving business, but he is concerned that the statues and coral reefs may become ruined or even more damaged by a storm or the numbers of tourist that will come. These statues are meant to keep coral developing and if some get damaged the statues are able to continue that growth.