http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3539e.pdf World Aquaculture Performance Indicators (WAPI) is an endeavour initiated by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department to develop user-friendly tools for compiling, generating and providing easy access to quantitative information on aquaculture sector performance at the national, regional and global levels. This ppt is a sample presentation prepared based on information provided by WAPI tools and associated knowledge products (e.g. technical papers or policy briefs). © FAO: http://www.fao.org

1. GLOBAL FISH DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK
WITH A FOCUS ON CHINA
A sample presentation
based on WAPI tools and
associated knowledge products

2. FISH DEMAND
2

3. Status and trends of per capita fish consumption:
Developing regions versus developed regions
3
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 2)

4. Fish as a poor people’s food
4
Source: “Fish as a poor people’s food”, FAO Aquaculture Newsletter (FAN) 58 (pp. 49-51)

5. World: contribution of fish to animal protein intake
remaining stable at around 17 percent
5
Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module

6. Fish’s contribution to animal protein intake:
China (23%) > World (17%)
6
Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module

7. World: Freshwater & diadromous fish ranked #4 among the
top-10 food items with greatest increase in contribution to
global protein intake
7
Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module

8. World: Freshwater &
diadromous fish has
become the largest
seafood item.
8Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 8)

9. Freshwater & diadromous fish: a dominant seafood
item (>50%) in only 31 countries or territories
9
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 10)
Image: @2017 Google

10. Marine fish: a dominant seafood item (>50%) in more
than 170 countries or territories
10
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 11)
Image: @2017 Google

11. 47 million tonnes of fish demand growth (from mid 2010s
to early 2020s) driven by income and population growth
11
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 24)
Image: @2017 Google
Notes: population growth (in every country) follows UN’s projection (medium-fertility-variant); income growth follows IMF’s
projection of per capita GDP; and fish prices remain constant.

12. Regional distribution of fish demand growth driven by
income and population growth from mid-2010s to early
2020s
12Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 22)

13. Species composition of fish demand growth driven by
income and population growth from mid-2010s to early
2020s
13
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 23)

14. FISH SUPPLY
14

15. Aquaculture has been the sole force behind global fish production
growth since the 1990s
15
Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module

16. Aquaculture < Capture fisheries in most countries
16
Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module

17. Imbalanced global aquaculture production
17
• Top-10 aquaculture countries accounting for nearly 90 percent of world production in 2015
• Top-10: China (62%) + 6 other Asian countries (22%) + Norway (1.8%) + Egypt (1.6%) + Chile (1.4%)
Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module

18. 19 million tonnes of fish supply generated by trend
aquaculture growth from mid-2010s to early 2020s
18
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 27)
Image: @2017 Google
Note: trend aquaculture growth means the aquaculture production in every country grows according to its recent trend

19. Regional distribution of trend aquaculture growth from
mid-2010s to early 2020s
19
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 26)
Note: trend aquaculture growth means the aquaculture production in every country grows according to its recent trend

20. Species composition of trend aquaculture growth from
mid-2010s to early 2020s
20
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 25)
Note: trend aquaculture growth means the aquaculture production in every country grows according to its recent trend

21. FISH DEMAND-SUPPLY GAPS
21

22. Estimated fish demand-supply gaps in early 2020s
22
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 30)
Image: @2017 Google
Note: fish demand growth driven by income and population growth (with fish price remaining constant); fish supply growth generated by trend aquaculture growth
• Trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries or territories would be able to generate enough fish to cover their fish demand growth from
the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, whereas a deficit is expected in 170 countries or territories.
• Trend aquaculture growth in nearly 120 countries or territories would cover less than 5 percent of their expected fish demand growth.
• While the trend aquaculture growth would exceed 10 percent a year in less than 20 countries or territories, aquaculture in over 130
countries or territories needs to grow faster than 10 percent a year in order to generate enough fish to satisfy the fish demand growth

23. Regional distribution of fish demand-supply gaps in
early 2020s
23
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 29)
Note: fish demand growth driven by income and population growth (with fish price remaining constant); fish supply growth
generated by trend aquaculture growth

24. Species composition of fish demand-supply gaps in
early 2020s
24
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Figure 28)
Note: fish demand growth driven by income and population growth (with fish price remaining constant); fish supply growth
generated by trend aquaculture growth

25. World: estimated fish demand-supply gaps in early
2020s
25
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Table 4)
Notes: 1. Standard projections are based on mean income elasticity coefficients and medium-fertility-variant population
projections. 2. Conservative projections are based on the lower bound of the 95 percent interval of income elasticity
coefficients and low-fertility-variant population projections.
Standard1
Conservative2
Standard1
Conservative2
Fish 28.3 11.8 4.5 9.9 6.9
Finfish 12.7 1.8 4.8 8.4 5.4
Marine fish 10.7 6.7 4.0 40.3 30.9
Freshwater & diadromous fish 2.0 - 4.8 4.8 5.5 3.2
Shellfish 15.7 10.0 3.6 13.0 10.0
Crustaceans 5.2 3.3 4.8 14.5 11.3
Molluscs 10.4 6.7 3.1 12.3 9.4
Shell molluscs 8.6 5.4 3.1 10.9 8.2
Cephalopods 1.8 1.3 1,393.8 1,303.9
Aquaculture growth needed
Annual aquaculture growth
from mid-2010s to early 2020s (%)Demand-supply gap
(million tonnes)
Trend
aquaculture
growth
World

26. China: estimated fish demand-supply gaps in early
2020s
26
Source: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 607 (Table A)
Notes: 1. Standard projections are based on mean income elasticity coefficients and medium-fertility-variant population
projections. 2. Conservative projections are based on the lower bound of the 95 percent interval of income elasticity
coefficients and low-fertility-variant population projections.
Standard
1
Conservative
2
Standard
1
Conservative
2
Fish 13.7 5.0 4.1 8.6 5.9
Finfish 2.6 - 1.9 4.4 5.8 3.3
Marine fish 1.3 0.5 5.7 18.4 10.8
Freshwater & diadromous fish 1.2 - 2.3 4.3 5.1 2.9
Shellfish 11.1 6.9 3.7 12.5 9.5
Crustaceans 3.2 2.0 4.3 14.6 11.2
Molluscs 8.0 4.9 3.5 11.8 8.9
Shell molluscs 7.2 4.3 3.5 11.1 8.3
Cephalopods 0.8 0.5
China
Demand-supply gap
(million tonnes)
Annual aquaculture growth
from mid-2010s to early 2020s (%)
Trend
aquaculture
growth
Aquaculture growth needed

27. FAO World Aquaculture
Performance Indicators (WAPI):
An initiative to facilitate evidence-based
policymaking and sector management
in aquaculture and fisheries
27

28. Welcome collaboration on WAPI
28
WAPI@fao.org