Fisheries and Aquaculture a way of Life or a Science: a Personal, a National and a Global Perspective
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Fisheries and Aquaculture a way of Life or a Science: a Personal, a National and a Global Perspective Venice, Italy 28 March 2015
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Fisheries and Aquaculture a way of Life or a Science: a Personal, a National and a Global Perspective
- 1. Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO
- 6. Way of life? Science? Scientific process?
- 22. • 805 million people estimated to be suffering from chronic hunger in 2012–14, down 100 million in the last decade. • The vast majority, 791 million, live in developing countries. Hunger 1014.5 929.9 946.2 840.5 805.3 994.1 908.7 930.8 824.9 790.7 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2009-11 2012-14 World Developing regions No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % WORLD 1 014.5 18.7 929.9 14.9 946.2 14.3 840.5 12.1 805.3 11.3 Number of undernourished (millions) and prevalence (%) of undernourishment 1990–92 2000–02 2005–07 2008–10 2012–14*
- 23. Vitamin A deficiency Causes blindness. 250 million preschool children affected. Iron deficiency Anaemia contributes to 20% of all maternal deaths. 40% of preschool children anaemic in developing countries. Iodine deficiency Impairing cognitive development in children 54 countries still iodine-deficient Millions of children suffering nutrition deficiency Source: WHO 805 million hungry people Source: WHO Trend Worldwide obesity has nearly doubled since 1980. Adults (aged 20 or older) More than 1.4 billion (35% of total) overweight in 2008 Over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women (11 % of total) obese in 2008. Children (under the age of 5) More than 40 million children overweight or obese in 2012. Billions of obese or overweight people Source: WHO Food security and nutrition status Hunger hand-in-hand with poverty
- 24. Contribution of fish to human nutrition 22.9 19.4 11.6 10.3 7.6 6.5 24.1 16.7 0 10 20 30 Asia Africa Europe Oceania Northern America Latin America &… LIFDCs World % Fish as a percentage of total animal protein intake Fish provides high quality animal protein Fish especially important to countries with low animal protein intake Vitamin A Protein DHA EPA Vitamin D Vitamin B12 Zinc Iron Calcium Selenium Iodine Fish, a source of nutrients Daily need (RDI) for children: DHA+EPA (Ω-3); seafood main source 150 (250) µg Vitamin A; 250 million preschool children deficient 150 (250) mg Iron; 1.6 billion people deficient 8.9 mg (at 10% bioavailability) Iodine; seafood natural source, 2 billion people deficient 120 µg Zinc; 800 000 child deaths per year 5.6 mg (at moderate bioavailability)
- 51. State of World Marine Fish Stocks
- 54. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012 Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption Non-food uses Per capita food fish supply Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg)
- 55. • . OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022) Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red. WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red Country/ region Fish Demand (2030) Total fish prod. (2012, mil. tonne) S-D gap 2030 (col. 4 minus col. 3) kg/cap. Total (mil. tonne) WORLD 29.1 261.2 156.5 -104.7 S.S. Africa 10.8 15.1 6.9 -8.2 L.A. & C. 12.2 18.3 14.8 -3.4 N. Africa 12.9 3.7 2.8 -0.8 Europe 27.3 23.4 16.0 -7.4 N. America 29.8 12.9 6.7 -6.1 Oceania 31.9 1.8 1.4 -0.3 Asia 37.0 186.3 107.8 -78.5 Future fish supply and demand projections FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results) Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged
- 56. Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9% [Million Tonnes] 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China 61% Asia 91% Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production
- 58. Way of life? Science? Scientific process?
Editor's Notes
- What do I mean by a way of life and what do I mean by science. I am not very precise. Way of life is a life is life without choices or careers. The surroundings dictate more or less what you have to do, generation after generation. There may be some variety or choice but the main path and purpose is clear and simple. In our case, fisheries. This is not the way sociology would define the phrase today and in it is also has bit of the ideas of life stance but ultimately you don´t have much choice in the matter in my interpretation.
- Fishing is an ancient practice dating back at least forty thousand years to a time during the Paleolithic when we were still hunter gatherers. To put this timeline in perspective homo sapiens our own species appeared 200.000 years ago and by this time we had started to wear cloths, moved away from home, that is out of Africa and further afield. But we didn’t start farming until about 20.000years later. However, there were still some very interesting beast around like wooly rhinos, mammoth and sabre toothed cats. And a lot of climate change was still to be experienced. Techniques were very simple hand gathering, spearing possibly angling and netting and trapping came later. Evidence of this early fishing engagement can be seen from isotopic analysis of skeletal remains of Tianyuan man in China as well early examples of settlements are always associated with fishing as a major source of food as e.g. in Lepenski Vir in Serbia. Fishing then develops steadily through the ages and is basically an important part of most ancient societies and is accredited to the Chines folklore hero Fu Xi, has its own champion in the Greco-Roman God Neptune with is fishing trident and has its important place in the Bible. It is also clear that trade developed early and to a large extent around fishing and the trade in fishing was also often linked to and related to the trade in salt. This is not surprising since when permanent settlement started to appear fishing communities were perhaps less self-sufficient than others for many items and therefore needed to trade more than others. This is not at all at odds with their still hunter gatherer nature since they are known to trade extensively with outside communities. In fact trade in certain products and trade-links in these products that still exist today can be over a thousand years old as is the case in the trade between the Nordic Countries and Italy in stockfish.
- Aquaculture is much younger than capture fisheries and much younger than agriculture. The cradle is undoubtedly in China and in the second millennium BCE even though eels may have been raised as early as 6000 in Australia. Farming is thought to have started when fish, probably the common carp ended up accidentally in flooded rice paddies after bad weather. A fortunate genetic mutation later during the Tang dynasty led to the emergence of gold fish. However, aquaculture was known in various areas of the world such as Japan, Hawaii and romans also bred fish in ponds. This tradition migrated to monasteries in central Europe which in that way kept themselves stocked with fish in spite of long distance from the ocean. Aquaculture as we know it today has however evolved from the late 19th. Century but the production levels we know today only started appearing after 1950. In spite of great production strides in salmonids in western countries China is the by far the greatest producer in a production volume which now totals half the fish supplied for human consumption.
- The latest FAO estimates indicate that global hunger reduction continues: about 805 million people are estimated to be chronically undernourished in 2012–14 most of them in developing countries. This is down more than 100 million over the last decade, and over 200 million lower than in 1990–92. In the same period, the prevalence of undernourishment has fallen from 18.7 to 11.3 percent globally and from 23.4 to 13.5 percent for the developing countries. We can not say that there haven’t been improvements but there is still a long way to go until we reach our goal.
- Hunger, or undernourishment, is not evenly spread around the world. The largest numbers and proportions are in Asia and Africa but Latin America and the Caribbean have their share at around 5 percent of the total. However, hunger is not the only problem since large numbers suffer from various nutritional deficiencies. This is particularly true of children. In the upper right hand part of the slide you can see the statistics and the effects of the most serious ones. Below it you can see the alarming trends in obesity, which increasingly causes great problems and even greater future concerns. On the bottom left is then a graph that shows what links all of this together, namely poverty, which is intrinsically linked to hunger, nutritional deficiencies and obesity wherever you look.
- Let us now return to fish. As you can see from the bottom left-hand corner, fish is full of essential micronutrients, high quality proteins and fats which supply both energy and essential omega 3 fatty acids. The table on the bottom right shows how relatively little is needed on a daily basis to fulfill these requirements. One little fish like the one on the right can supply all of these needs if ingested whole. Protein is however considered conventionally as the most important nutritional element supplied by fish. In the graph in the top left-hand corner you can see that fish supplies almost 17 percent of the world’s animal protein, variable between regions and lowest in fact in Latin America and the Caribbean region. It is relatively more important in Low Income Food Deficit Countries. In the graph in the top right corner you can see that the lower the total animal protein intake is, the higher the level of fish protein is. The blue and red dots of the African and Asian countries all cluster towards the y-axis or the left in the graph. The size of the bubbles, especially in the case of the Asia, represented by red bubbles, indicates the size of the populations behind the country statistics. The story to take home from this graph is that LIFDCs are especially sensitive to any reduction in the supply of fish protein which would reflect very negatively in their total animal protein intake. The role of the omega 3 fatty acids is an especially important one and the medical doctor Professor Michael Crawford of Imperial Collage London maintains that Homo Sapiens, that is our own species, didn’t start to think rationally until we moved to the coast or to the rivers and started fishing and eating fish. He further says that the future of mankind therefore relies on fish and the oceans. A sobering thought.
- However, as mentioned earlier, aquaculture production has expanded greatly. This growth has been disproportionate around the world, which gives us reason to believe that there is still great scope for expansion for years to come. Asia, and particularly China, lead both in production of aquaculture products as well as in consumption of fish in general.
- This graph shows the state of world fisheries production. It is obvious to all and we all know, that under present conditions, capture fisheries are leveling off at the same time as consumption per capita per year increases. This is made possible by the growth in aquaculture, the fastest growing food sector, which is now almost equal to capture fisheries for human consumption but we still have a sizeable portion going for non-human food consumption, mostly animal feed.
- One of the main driving elements behind the BGI is the future predicted scenarios we see in the modeling work we have done in the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of FAO on our own or with others. The OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections to 2022, shown top left on the slide, predicts increasing consumption in most regions of the world up to an average level of almost 21 kg per capita per annum compared to the widely recommended level of around 15 kg per capita per annum. The worrying exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows a drop from the already low level of below 10 kg per capita per annum to below 8 kg in the period. Red figures represent a drop from earlier values, black figures represent an increase. The results from the WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 projections show world consumptions at almost 19 kg per capita per annum. However, there are very varied changes in consumption between the regions. Most of them are positive or do not cause concern but the drop in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa down to below 6 kg, which is consistent with the OECD-FAO predictions, is very worrying as well as the drop in the already low levels in Latin America and the Caribbean region and in the North-Africa and Middle-East region to below 8 and 10 kg respectively. Here we should remember, as I mentioned earlier that the recommended levels are around 15 kg per capita per annum. It is surely obvious to all that were this to be the reality by 2030, it would be totally unacceptable to all of us. The present level of world fisheries and aquaculture consumption is 160 million tons a year. The predictions from the various scenarios in the Fish to 2030 report are all around 200 million tons per year. This is roughly consistent with the OECD-FAO outlook trend. In a simplified demand model done by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department using as drivers population growth and GDP growth based on the link between GDP and fish consumption, and essentially removing all production restrictions, the results are that the world would want to consume 260 million tons of fish by 2030 if supply was available. Under this scenario the world would consume on the average just shy of 30 kg per capita per annum and Sub-Saharan Africa, North-Africa and the Middle-East region and Latin America and the Caribbean region would all consume 3-5 kg more fish per capita per annum or 11-13 kg per capita per annum. This would be a result by 2030 that we could all live with but to get that result we need to produce more fish by 2030, to the tune of 100 million tons a year more than we produce today.
- The situation of wild stocks is unacceptable, too many stocks, or around 30% of stocks, are overfished. Even though the last two SOFIA reports have not reported an increase in this section the statistical trend has not changed. We both have to and can change this. The dark blue area in the graph shows the stocks which are harvested within biologically sustainable levels and the light blue shows the stocks that are fished unsustainably.
- Climate change will impact capture fisheries in many ways, like fish migration, breeding, spawning and feeding patterns. Fish populations will likely shift, are even already shifting away from tropical latitudes to higher latitudes, more to the north than to the south. There could also be high local extinction rates in the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Fish seize might change: large fish will have a smaller maximum body size due to reduced oxygen capacity of seawater. But new fishing areas will become available from decreases in ice cover. The climate changes can lead to economic and governance issues for fisheries. Shifting fish stocks in international waters may present issues for governments attempting to reach fishing agreements. On the whole global fisheries’ losses are estimated at 17-41 billion USD by 2050? Fish yield is projected to be increased by 30-70% in high latitudes but to fall by 40-60% in the tropics and Antarctica. Potential negative implications for aquaculture are: Inability to catch sufficient feed-fish due to ower catches impacting fishmeal and fish oil production Acidic water affecting shellfish growth Increasing flood risks to fish and shrimp ponds Coastal species at increased risk of extinction Algal blooms causing possible mass die-offs in farmed fish But positive impacts could be: Faster growth rates; Better food conversion efficiency; Longer growing seasons; Range expansion for suitable growing areas; To put things realistically, many potential changes but I believe that potentially we can handle them, if we work together.
- What do I mean by a way of life and what do I mean by science. I am not very precise. Way of life is a life is life without choices or careers. The surroundings dictate more or less what you have to do, generation after generation. There may be some variety or choice but the main path and purpose is clear and simple. In our case, fisheries. This is not the way sociology would define the phrase today and in it is also has bit of the ideas of life stance but ultimately you don´t have much choice in the matter in my interpretation.