Ontario Society of Professional Engineers OSPE Green Infrastructure Roundtable - Green Infrastructure – Cost Effectiveness and Technical Challenges for Flood Mitigation
Green Infrastructure – Cost Effectiveness and Technical Challenges for Flood Mitigation, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, January 30, 2018 - Mississauga, Ontario
The presentation presents regulations and policies regarding cost effective infrastructure, explores green infrastructure capital costs in Ontario based on recent project tender costs and other North American extensive program sources, explores lifecycle cost (LCC) impacts of widespread green infrastructure implementation in Ontario, including cost per household and impacts on the current infrastructure deficit, and presents benefit cost analysis for city-wide grey and green infrastructure strategies including benefit/cost ratios for flood damage reduction. Unit costs of no regret programs such as sanitary downspout disconnection and plumbing isolation programs, and wastewater and stormwater system upgrades, and green infrastructure retrofits are presented per hectare. Gaps in research relying on meta-analysis estimates of flood control benefits that do not consider local engineering or costs are presented. Impacts of green infrastructure on wastewater systems and infiltration stresses is presented, and correlation of wastewater infiltration stresses with local sewer back-up risks is shown for the City of Markham. Water supply risks of green infrastructure relying on infiltration including chloride stresses are explored. The unfavourable benefit-cost profile of green infrastructure and potential impacts on wastewater system flood risks and municipal water supplies suggests a strategic review of implementation targets and policies is warranted to identify financially sustainable and technically-appropriate requirements.
An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure - TRIECA Conference 2019Robert Muir
TRIECA Conference , 2019, An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure Benefits and Costs, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, Fabian Papa, M.A.Sc., MBA, P.Eng., President, FP&P HydraTek
Presentation reviews regulations on policies on infrastructure cost, provides a history of cost benefit analysis, reviews Ontario green infrastructure policy and cost considerations, identifies research gaps in cost benefit analysis, evaluates the costs and benefits of grey, green and blended grey and green infrastructure strategies considering full lifecycle costs and system-wide implementation in the City of Markham. Analysis is based on this upcoming WEAO paper https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
Clean Air Partnership Green Infrastructure CAC Meeting - Don Mills Channel Fl...Robert Muir
Presentation on the application of Cost Benefit Analysis to water resources engineering projects, including for municipal flood control as part of Municipal Class Environmental Assessment infrastructure projects and city-wide programs. Evaluation of green infrastructure (Low Impact Development (LID)) capital costs and grey infrastructure costs.
An Economic Analysis of Green v. Grey InfrastructureRobert Muir
Water Environment Association of Ontario 2019 Annual Conference, Toronto, Ontario, April 16, 2019
by Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Fabian Papa, MBA, P.Eng.
Presentation reviews policies and regulations in Ontario promoting cost-effective infrastructure servicing. Summarizes the assessment of cost effectiveness of grey, green and blended green and grey flood damage reduction strategies on a system-wide basis. Identifies triple-bottom-line benefits of erosion mitigation reduction and water quality improvements due to green infrastructure implementation. Details of the analysis are presented in the proceedings paper also included here: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
The analysis indicates benefit cost ratios for flood control and other benefits and assesses funding impacts on stormwater utility fees in a case study in the City of Markham. Markham's current Flood Control Program consisting largely of grey infrastructure is shown to be cost-effective with benefits exceeding costs by 2 to 1 based on insured loss deferral (and a higher ratio considering higher total losses). Green infrastructure is shown to be less cost-effective at delivering flood control and the cost for achieving water quality benefits exceeds the estimated willingness to pay 'value' of those benefits. The analysis suggests that a critical, strategic evaluation of green infrastructure implementation targets is required prior to system-wide implementation, given cost concerns.
Grey and Green Infrastructure Benefit Cost, Return on Investment Analysis for...Robert Muir
This presentation was made to the Southern Ontario Municipal Stormwater Discussion Group on September 27, 2018 in Brantford, Ontario. It describes benefit-cost analysis to show the return on investment (ROI) of infrastructure improvements to reduce flood damages (insured and total), and to achieve other benefits including erosion mitigation and water quality improvements. Earlier benefit cost analyses for projects ranging from the Winnipeg floodway to the Stratford, Ontario storm system master plan are shown. The benefit-cost ratio of an Ontario flood control study is shown including a comparison of grey and green infrastructure cost effectiveness - analysis shows the grey infrastructure solution can meet the current Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) benefit/cost threshold of 2:1 required to be eligible for federal funding. In addition, city-wide analysis of grey infrastructure storm and sanitary system upgrades and green infrastructure / low impact development infrastructure strategies is summarized.
Results show that the grey infrastructure solution can meet the DMAF benefit/cost threshold of 2:1 but that the benefit/cost of green infrastructure is substantially below it considering flood reduction benefits. When other benefits are considered, and targeted implementation of green infrastructure is considered (e.g., representing 25% of the urban area with limited overland drainage design standards) and considering additional benefits including a substantial 'willingness to pay' estimate for water quality improvements, costs continue to exceed benefits. The insurance industry and some affiliated research groups have suggested that natural infrastructure or green infrastructure should be considered to improve climate resilience and reduce flood damages - this analysis would suggest that approach is misguided and could misdirect scare resources to ineffective strategies.
Review of urban flood risk mapping methods to guide risk reduction strategies. Tiered vulnerability assessment for urban storm (overland pluvial and sewer), sanitary / wastewater and riverine systems is illustrated from "Flood Plain to Floor Drain", consistent with the author's design standards guideline for best practices and projects in existing communities. Example risk mapping / tiered vulnerability evaluations in Markham, Ontario and Stratford, Ontario are shown emphasizing where simple and intermediate risk assessment can guide no-regret, practically deployed policies and programs to reduce urban flood risk, and there advanced risk assessment can guide minor and major capital projects as part of more comprehensive studies in high risk areas that warrant infrastructure investments to lower flood damages in specific local systems. Presentation was made as part of the Ontario Urban Flooding Collaborative organized by Green Communities Canada.
An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure - TRIECA Conference 2019Robert Muir
TRIECA Conference , 2019, An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure Benefits and Costs, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, Fabian Papa, M.A.Sc., MBA, P.Eng., President, FP&P HydraTek
Presentation reviews regulations on policies on infrastructure cost, provides a history of cost benefit analysis, reviews Ontario green infrastructure policy and cost considerations, identifies research gaps in cost benefit analysis, evaluates the costs and benefits of grey, green and blended grey and green infrastructure strategies considering full lifecycle costs and system-wide implementation in the City of Markham. Analysis is based on this upcoming WEAO paper https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
Clean Air Partnership Green Infrastructure CAC Meeting - Don Mills Channel Fl...Robert Muir
Presentation on the application of Cost Benefit Analysis to water resources engineering projects, including for municipal flood control as part of Municipal Class Environmental Assessment infrastructure projects and city-wide programs. Evaluation of green infrastructure (Low Impact Development (LID)) capital costs and grey infrastructure costs.
An Economic Analysis of Green v. Grey InfrastructureRobert Muir
Water Environment Association of Ontario 2019 Annual Conference, Toronto, Ontario, April 16, 2019
by Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Fabian Papa, MBA, P.Eng.
Presentation reviews policies and regulations in Ontario promoting cost-effective infrastructure servicing. Summarizes the assessment of cost effectiveness of grey, green and blended green and grey flood damage reduction strategies on a system-wide basis. Identifies triple-bottom-line benefits of erosion mitigation reduction and water quality improvements due to green infrastructure implementation. Details of the analysis are presented in the proceedings paper also included here: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
The analysis indicates benefit cost ratios for flood control and other benefits and assesses funding impacts on stormwater utility fees in a case study in the City of Markham. Markham's current Flood Control Program consisting largely of grey infrastructure is shown to be cost-effective with benefits exceeding costs by 2 to 1 based on insured loss deferral (and a higher ratio considering higher total losses). Green infrastructure is shown to be less cost-effective at delivering flood control and the cost for achieving water quality benefits exceeds the estimated willingness to pay 'value' of those benefits. The analysis suggests that a critical, strategic evaluation of green infrastructure implementation targets is required prior to system-wide implementation, given cost concerns.
Grey and Green Infrastructure Benefit Cost, Return on Investment Analysis for...Robert Muir
This presentation was made to the Southern Ontario Municipal Stormwater Discussion Group on September 27, 2018 in Brantford, Ontario. It describes benefit-cost analysis to show the return on investment (ROI) of infrastructure improvements to reduce flood damages (insured and total), and to achieve other benefits including erosion mitigation and water quality improvements. Earlier benefit cost analyses for projects ranging from the Winnipeg floodway to the Stratford, Ontario storm system master plan are shown. The benefit-cost ratio of an Ontario flood control study is shown including a comparison of grey and green infrastructure cost effectiveness - analysis shows the grey infrastructure solution can meet the current Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) benefit/cost threshold of 2:1 required to be eligible for federal funding. In addition, city-wide analysis of grey infrastructure storm and sanitary system upgrades and green infrastructure / low impact development infrastructure strategies is summarized.
Results show that the grey infrastructure solution can meet the DMAF benefit/cost threshold of 2:1 but that the benefit/cost of green infrastructure is substantially below it considering flood reduction benefits. When other benefits are considered, and targeted implementation of green infrastructure is considered (e.g., representing 25% of the urban area with limited overland drainage design standards) and considering additional benefits including a substantial 'willingness to pay' estimate for water quality improvements, costs continue to exceed benefits. The insurance industry and some affiliated research groups have suggested that natural infrastructure or green infrastructure should be considered to improve climate resilience and reduce flood damages - this analysis would suggest that approach is misguided and could misdirect scare resources to ineffective strategies.
Review of urban flood risk mapping methods to guide risk reduction strategies. Tiered vulnerability assessment for urban storm (overland pluvial and sewer), sanitary / wastewater and riverine systems is illustrated from "Flood Plain to Floor Drain", consistent with the author's design standards guideline for best practices and projects in existing communities. Example risk mapping / tiered vulnerability evaluations in Markham, Ontario and Stratford, Ontario are shown emphasizing where simple and intermediate risk assessment can guide no-regret, practically deployed policies and programs to reduce urban flood risk, and there advanced risk assessment can guide minor and major capital projects as part of more comprehensive studies in high risk areas that warrant infrastructure investments to lower flood damages in specific local systems. Presentation was made as part of the Ontario Urban Flooding Collaborative organized by Green Communities Canada.
IDF Trend Analysis, Future Climate Projections & System Design for Extreme We...Robert Muir
Presentation on policies promoting climate resilience in Ontario, a review of insurance industry and government agency statements on extreme weather trends, a review of national and local engineering climate datasets annual maximum series and derived IDF trends, particularly southern Ontario. A review of engineering and academic studies for multiple municipalities highlights many unsupported claims on extreme weather trends. Practical design approaches given decreasing or stationary IDF trends, and allowances for future climate changes effects are noted, including the consideration of design stress test analysis with synthetic hyetographs or rain intensity increases. Design hyetographs are shown to be more critical to infrastructure system design than IDF curve shifts in regions such as Southern Ontario.
Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Man...Robert Muir
Natural Environment Climate Change Summit, Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Management & Infrastructure Investments, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, March 7, 2019, Ajax, Ontario
The presentation explores the drivers for cost efficiency assessment infrastructure investments including those to mitigate flooding due to extreme weather and future climate change impacts on high intensity rainfall that contributes to urban flooding. Flood risk factors including severe rainfall trends are explored as well as hydrologic stresses due to urbanization and design standard evolution. Measures to reduce flooding in the City of Markham are explored using benefit cost analysis in the context of its comprehensive city-wide Flood Control Program. The program includes many projects that demonstrate a high return on investment (ROI) for flood risk reduction, making them eligible for Infrastructure Canada's Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) grant funding. An evaluation of risk management strategies is presented that includes traditional grey infrastructure engineering solutions such as sewer capacity upgrades, and emerging green infrastructure strategies including engineered and enhanced assets (e.g., bioswales, rain gardens, infiltration trenches, GSI). The strategies take a holistic, system-wide approach to evaluating benefits and lifecycle costs, including initial capital on on-going operation and maintenance costs. The analysis will be presented a t the annual Water Environment Association of Ontario conference in 2019 in Toronto, Ontario. A link to the paper material is presented here: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
Urbanization and Baseflow Impacts - Evidence-based Water Budget Management an...Robert Muir
Green infrastructure, low impact development practices (LIDs), also called stormwater management best management practices (SWM BMPs), are often proposed to restore water balance functions and mitigate impacts or urbanization on runoff and recharge. One argument is that baseflows are lowered due to reduced infiltration and discharges to watercourses. It is a simple textbook theory.
What does the data show? The following slide presentation was prepared to respond to the Ontario draft LID guidance manual in early 2017 since water balance impacts have been cited as justification for this infrastructure.
Local studies show that baseflows have increased over decades of urbanization, calling into question the need for such measures considering that potential impact has not materialized. As noted in TRCA's Approved Updated Assessment Report under the Clean Water Act, at most gauges there was an upward trend in baseflows which prompted this: "These overall increases to baseflow volumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflow" - so for those keeping score, data - one, common thought - zero. TMIG also analyzed baseflows in the GTA and noted “The seven-day average consecutive low flow data provides an indication of the observed baseflows within a watercourse, and hence is a suitable measure for determining whether baseflow trends exist in an urbanizing area. The trend analysis identified noticeable baseflow trends in 13 of the 24 recording stations. Of these eight urban and two rural stations exhibited an upward trend, suggesting increasing baseflow.”
National Guideline Development for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Storm Drainage In...Robert Muir
The development of the National Research Council of Canada's benefit cost guideline for storm drainage and flood control infrastructure presented at the WEAO 2021 Collection Systems Committee Fall Webinar, October 28, 2020
Green Infrastructure / Low Impact Development LID Design Tool and Lifecycle C...Robert Muir
National Water and Wastewater Benchmarking Initiative Stormwater Task Force Fall Workshop, Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada
by Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
Presentation reviews the history of low impact development best management practices in Ontario, York Region and the City of Markham. Application of Analytical Probabilistic Models to assess LID performance and capacity for cost-effective design is reviewed. Lifecycle costs of distributed and centralized green infrastructure LID features are compared with conventional grey infrastructure stormwater management approaches. Normalized unit costs of various LID technologies are compared including annualized capital depreciation and operation and maintenance costs. Recent Ontario green infrastructure LID BMP implementation costs for bioswales, infiltration trenches, rain gardens and permeable pavement are summarized. City of Markham North Markham's LID servicing strategy is reviewed including impact of new development LID servicing on tax rates or stormwater utility fees.
WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE – SAFETY FACTOR...Robert Muir
Water Environment Association of Ontario
Annual Conference 2018
Lijing Xu, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., LEED AP, Robert J Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
City of Markham
April 17, 2018
This is the presentation of the paper findings: https://drive.google.com/open?id=15pc52qgbwOasSP5O1YU2GgEQLfqkjwbW
Storm intensity not increasing - factual review of engineering data - Canada ...Robert Muir
Storm Intensity Not Increasing. Review of Weather Event Statement in Insurance Bureau of Canada’s “Telling the Weather Story” prepared by Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. Environment Canada analysis and engineering dataset review for Canada and Ontario, July, 2015. "Old extremes are the new normal".
As illustrated through these slides, Telling the Weather Story makes a statement on the increased frequency of storms and weather events, indicating that in parts of Canada, events that occurred every 40 years are occurring every 6 years, due to climate change.
The statement on increased frequency is unfounded as (based on ICLR's IPCC source and material and IBC's presentation to the Empire Club of Canada) it is based on a theoretical shift in temperature frequency from a global climate change report, and is contrary to Environment Canada’s actual analysis and data on local rainfall intensity trends.
The Telling the Weather Story statement on increased storm intensity, based on temperature theory has been i) embraced as rainfall facts and research by many organizations, ii) embellished to apply to extreme rainfall, and iii) considered in policy and economic reports. Organizations promoting the misinformation in the statement include TD Economics, The Toronto Star / thestar.com, CBC News, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Columbia Institute Centre for Civic Governance, Civic Action, CBC Doc Zone, The Calgary Sun, CanadianUnderwriter.ca, Aviva Canada, Insurance Bureau of Canada.
Due to the unfounded Telling the Weather Story Weather Story statement, policies and efforts toward mitigating increasing urban flood damages may be misdirected to climate change mitigation, as opposed to more effective risk identification/management efforts, urban planning / stormwater management policies and infrastructure remediation / capital investment efforts that address the root causes of increased damages, not related to theoretical storm frequency shifts.
It is an inconvenient truth that increases in temperature, and in theory water vapour, have not translated into increased rainfall intensities. Research at MIT and Columbia in fact states the contrary, that rainfall intensities can decrease at higher temperatures and that intensities are governed by CAPE and not temperature.
Environment Canada has been correcting false reporting by the insurance industry on this topic of increasing rainfall frequency, for example correcting CBC reporting:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/more-than-half-of-homeowners-insurance-claims-stem-from-water-damage-broker-says-1.3291111
Or recent reporting in Canadian Underwriter, specifically on the Weather Story:
http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/insurance/new-ibc-flood-model-shows-1-8-million-canadian-households-at-very-high-risk-1004006457/
CBC/Radio-Canada Ombudsman Guy Gendron's ruling highlights media issues with accurate extreme rain reporting here as well: https://bit.ly/2RPx7p9
Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room f...Robert Muir
OPWA Right of Way Management Conference, Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018
Keynote Address by Robert Muir, Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
The presentation "Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment" explores strategic infrastructure investment planning and cost-effective asset management for public assets. The cost efficiency assessment of various mitigation measures is explored using benefit cost analysis in the context of Markham's comprehensive city-wide Flood Control Program. The program includes many projects that demonstrate a high return on investment (ROI) for flood risk reduction, making them eligible for Infrastructure Canada's Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) grant funding.
Wetland Flood Reduction - Distribution of Wetland Features and Applicability ...Robert Muir
This presentation was prepared to advise Green Communities Canada on the applicability of green infrastructure for flood risk reduction as part of the Ontario Urban Flooding Collaborative. It includes a review of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation's Laurel Creek watershed assessment (a case study in their 2017 report "When the Big Storms Hit: The Role of Wetlands to Limit Urban and Rural Flood Damage". The review suggests that the ICCA case study is atypical for both urban and rural areas in Ontario, meaning that opportunities for flood storage and damage reduction are more limited than suggested.
Addressing Climate Change through Engineering PracticeRobert Muir
Climate Change Training Session for Municipal and Conservation Authority Engineers, Planners and Decision Makers.
Toronto - 26 April 2017
Presented by Hani Farghaly, PhD., P.Eng.
Ontario Ministry of Transportation
This comprehensive review of highway drainage infrastructure resiliency under climate change indicates that impacts to storm sewers, roadway drainage surfaces, and culverts is limited with projected climate change effects.
Robert Muir Level of Service Upgrades and Climate Change Adaptation NRC Works...Robert Muir
Workshop on adaptation to climate change impact on
Urban / rural storm flooding
February 27, 2018
Changes in catchment characteristics
and remediation priorities due to climate change and
level of service upgrades
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
Robert Muir Extreme Rainfall Trends - NRC Workshop on urban rural storm flood...Robert Muir
The National Research Council's Workshop on adaptation to climate change impact on Urban / rural storm flooding February 27, 2018. Presentation on: National, regional, local IDF trend
analysis & hyetograph selection to
define risks and system stresses
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
ICLR Friday Forum: Reducing flood risk in Toronto (February 2016)glennmcgillivray
ICLR held a Friday Forum workshop February 19, 2016 entitled 'Reducing flood risk in Toronto', led by David Kellershohn with Toronto Water. Urban flooding continues to drive significant losses for homeowners, municipalities and insurers across Canada. Toronto has been affected by significant urban flood events in 2000, 2005 and 2013. This presentation focused on basement flood protection work underway in Toronto.
David Kellershohn, as the Manager of Stormwater Management for the City of Toronto, is responsible for implementing the City's Wet Weather Flow Master Plan. This program includes the City's Basement Flooding Protection Program and the Coordinated Watercourse Erosion Management program. Ten year capital budget plans for these efforts exceed $1.6 billion over the next ten years.
Prior to joining the City of Toronto in 2009, David worked in the land development consulting industry for 12 years where he designed drainage systems for projects ranging from large subdivisions and large downtown condominium buildings through to small individual site designs.
David has a Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Waterloo and a Master's Degree in Civil Engineering from McMaster University, where he studied the water quality of Hamilton Harbour.
Flood plains to floor drains design standard adaptation for urban flood risk ...Robert Muir
Presented to Flood Master Class by Insurance Business Magazine this presentation examines quantitative risk assessment of riparian, overland and wastewater (sanitary) sewer system flooding. Analysis of City of Toronto and City of Markham historical flooding is shown to be highly correlated to design standard limitations related to the era of construction. Risks are shown to extend over a range of scales from floodplain (river) to flood drain (homes) based on detailed GIS spatial analysis. Flood risk mitigation measures are presented to achieve design standard adaptation in local areas with specific limitations.
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...glennmcgillivray
ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar on June 18, 2021 titled 'Floodplain mapping over Canada: Investigating performance at inundation level and understanding dynamics of population flood exposure', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic, Director of Engineering Studies, ICLR/Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University.
Surface runoff estimates from atmospheric re-analysis datasets are increasingly preferred by hydrologists for modelling floods in regions where traditional observations are not sufficiently available. This presentation explores the fidelity of four widely used re-analyses runoff products as hydraulic forcings to a flood inundation model in describing inundation dynamics over Canada. The re-analysis obtained runoff is used with the Catchment-based Macroscale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) global hydrodynamic model, to derive high-resolution floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The floodplain maps derived from each reanalysis dataset are compared with the regional developed or ‘benchmark floodplain maps’ over six selected flood-prone basins (test basins) in Canada through a set of performance statistics. Using the superior reanalysis runoff dataset, a few historic flood events over the test basins are simulated and subsequently compared with MODIS satellite-derived floodplain information. We notice that more than 75% of the inundation is precisely captured for these events.
The second part of the presentation will focus on the use of four global population datasets (together with census data from Statistics Canada as the reference), their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment across Canada. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains.
This work (i) strongly supports the need for careful selection of a re-analysis dataset while performing inundation modelling for large regions: and (ii) also highlights the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. The results derived from this study may be useful for flood risk management and contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.
On July 16, 2021 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Edmonton's approach to stormwater flood management', led by Susan Ancel, Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. EPCOR has developed a $1.6 billion Stormwater Integrated Resource Plan (SIRP) to mitigate the impacts of flooding in the community. SIRP envisions all stakeholders – citizens, businesses, industry, the City of Edmonton and EPCOR working together to build a flood-resilient future. The goal is to Slow, Move, Secure, Predict and Respond to flooding events to prevent or reduce the impact. EPCOR’s planned flood mitigations projects will take 20 years to complete. The types of projects that are included in SIRP include dry ponds, low impact development, tunnels, combined sewer separation, outfall control gates, inflow/infiltration reduction, building flood proofing, increased sensors and automatic controls and emergency response equipment. The plan was developed through consultation with Climate Change Adaptation, Insurance and Financial sector groups across North America.
Susan Ancel is the Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. In her prior role, she was Director of Stormwater Strategies, where she was responsible for developing an Integrated Resource Plan for flood mitigation that considered capital and operational risk mitigation planning, as well as the interrelationships between utilities, insurance, disaster response agencies and the public. Prior to her Stormwater Strategies role she was the Director of Water Distribution and Transmission for EPCOR. Susan is a Mechanical engineer with over 30 years’ experience with the municipal utility sector. She has also served on numerous industry committees including the Board of Directors for the Geospatial Information Technology Association (GITA) from 2001 to 2007 and was President of GITA in 2006. She currently serves on the Board of Directors for Canadian Water Network.
The team will cover the Current Status of the project (Rembrandt Koppelaar), Water Demands (Xiaonan Wang, Koen H. van Dam), Infrastructure construction (Rembrandt Koppelaar) and Toilet usage (Xiaonan Wang, Koen H. van Dam)
IDF Trend Analysis, Future Climate Projections & System Design for Extreme We...Robert Muir
Presentation on policies promoting climate resilience in Ontario, a review of insurance industry and government agency statements on extreme weather trends, a review of national and local engineering climate datasets annual maximum series and derived IDF trends, particularly southern Ontario. A review of engineering and academic studies for multiple municipalities highlights many unsupported claims on extreme weather trends. Practical design approaches given decreasing or stationary IDF trends, and allowances for future climate changes effects are noted, including the consideration of design stress test analysis with synthetic hyetographs or rain intensity increases. Design hyetographs are shown to be more critical to infrastructure system design than IDF curve shifts in regions such as Southern Ontario.
Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Man...Robert Muir
Natural Environment Climate Change Summit, Extreme Weather Resiliency and Climate Adaptation Through Strategic Asset Management & Infrastructure Investments, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, March 7, 2019, Ajax, Ontario
The presentation explores the drivers for cost efficiency assessment infrastructure investments including those to mitigate flooding due to extreme weather and future climate change impacts on high intensity rainfall that contributes to urban flooding. Flood risk factors including severe rainfall trends are explored as well as hydrologic stresses due to urbanization and design standard evolution. Measures to reduce flooding in the City of Markham are explored using benefit cost analysis in the context of its comprehensive city-wide Flood Control Program. The program includes many projects that demonstrate a high return on investment (ROI) for flood risk reduction, making them eligible for Infrastructure Canada's Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) grant funding. An evaluation of risk management strategies is presented that includes traditional grey infrastructure engineering solutions such as sewer capacity upgrades, and emerging green infrastructure strategies including engineered and enhanced assets (e.g., bioswales, rain gardens, infiltration trenches, GSI). The strategies take a holistic, system-wide approach to evaluating benefits and lifecycle costs, including initial capital on on-going operation and maintenance costs. The analysis will be presented a t the annual Water Environment Association of Ontario conference in 2019 in Toronto, Ontario. A link to the paper material is presented here: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
Urbanization and Baseflow Impacts - Evidence-based Water Budget Management an...Robert Muir
Green infrastructure, low impact development practices (LIDs), also called stormwater management best management practices (SWM BMPs), are often proposed to restore water balance functions and mitigate impacts or urbanization on runoff and recharge. One argument is that baseflows are lowered due to reduced infiltration and discharges to watercourses. It is a simple textbook theory.
What does the data show? The following slide presentation was prepared to respond to the Ontario draft LID guidance manual in early 2017 since water balance impacts have been cited as justification for this infrastructure.
Local studies show that baseflows have increased over decades of urbanization, calling into question the need for such measures considering that potential impact has not materialized. As noted in TRCA's Approved Updated Assessment Report under the Clean Water Act, at most gauges there was an upward trend in baseflows which prompted this: "These overall increases to baseflow volumes are contrary to the common thought that increased impervious cover leads to reduced baseflow" - so for those keeping score, data - one, common thought - zero. TMIG also analyzed baseflows in the GTA and noted “The seven-day average consecutive low flow data provides an indication of the observed baseflows within a watercourse, and hence is a suitable measure for determining whether baseflow trends exist in an urbanizing area. The trend analysis identified noticeable baseflow trends in 13 of the 24 recording stations. Of these eight urban and two rural stations exhibited an upward trend, suggesting increasing baseflow.”
National Guideline Development for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Storm Drainage In...Robert Muir
The development of the National Research Council of Canada's benefit cost guideline for storm drainage and flood control infrastructure presented at the WEAO 2021 Collection Systems Committee Fall Webinar, October 28, 2020
Green Infrastructure / Low Impact Development LID Design Tool and Lifecycle C...Robert Muir
National Water and Wastewater Benchmarking Initiative Stormwater Task Force Fall Workshop, Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada
by Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
Presentation reviews the history of low impact development best management practices in Ontario, York Region and the City of Markham. Application of Analytical Probabilistic Models to assess LID performance and capacity for cost-effective design is reviewed. Lifecycle costs of distributed and centralized green infrastructure LID features are compared with conventional grey infrastructure stormwater management approaches. Normalized unit costs of various LID technologies are compared including annualized capital depreciation and operation and maintenance costs. Recent Ontario green infrastructure LID BMP implementation costs for bioswales, infiltration trenches, rain gardens and permeable pavement are summarized. City of Markham North Markham's LID servicing strategy is reviewed including impact of new development LID servicing on tax rates or stormwater utility fees.
WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE – SAFETY FACTOR...Robert Muir
Water Environment Association of Ontario
Annual Conference 2018
Lijing Xu, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., LEED AP, Robert J Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
City of Markham
April 17, 2018
This is the presentation of the paper findings: https://drive.google.com/open?id=15pc52qgbwOasSP5O1YU2GgEQLfqkjwbW
Storm intensity not increasing - factual review of engineering data - Canada ...Robert Muir
Storm Intensity Not Increasing. Review of Weather Event Statement in Insurance Bureau of Canada’s “Telling the Weather Story” prepared by Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. Environment Canada analysis and engineering dataset review for Canada and Ontario, July, 2015. "Old extremes are the new normal".
As illustrated through these slides, Telling the Weather Story makes a statement on the increased frequency of storms and weather events, indicating that in parts of Canada, events that occurred every 40 years are occurring every 6 years, due to climate change.
The statement on increased frequency is unfounded as (based on ICLR's IPCC source and material and IBC's presentation to the Empire Club of Canada) it is based on a theoretical shift in temperature frequency from a global climate change report, and is contrary to Environment Canada’s actual analysis and data on local rainfall intensity trends.
The Telling the Weather Story statement on increased storm intensity, based on temperature theory has been i) embraced as rainfall facts and research by many organizations, ii) embellished to apply to extreme rainfall, and iii) considered in policy and economic reports. Organizations promoting the misinformation in the statement include TD Economics, The Toronto Star / thestar.com, CBC News, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Columbia Institute Centre for Civic Governance, Civic Action, CBC Doc Zone, The Calgary Sun, CanadianUnderwriter.ca, Aviva Canada, Insurance Bureau of Canada.
Due to the unfounded Telling the Weather Story Weather Story statement, policies and efforts toward mitigating increasing urban flood damages may be misdirected to climate change mitigation, as opposed to more effective risk identification/management efforts, urban planning / stormwater management policies and infrastructure remediation / capital investment efforts that address the root causes of increased damages, not related to theoretical storm frequency shifts.
It is an inconvenient truth that increases in temperature, and in theory water vapour, have not translated into increased rainfall intensities. Research at MIT and Columbia in fact states the contrary, that rainfall intensities can decrease at higher temperatures and that intensities are governed by CAPE and not temperature.
Environment Canada has been correcting false reporting by the insurance industry on this topic of increasing rainfall frequency, for example correcting CBC reporting:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/more-than-half-of-homeowners-insurance-claims-stem-from-water-damage-broker-says-1.3291111
Or recent reporting in Canadian Underwriter, specifically on the Weather Story:
http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/insurance/new-ibc-flood-model-shows-1-8-million-canadian-households-at-very-high-risk-1004006457/
CBC/Radio-Canada Ombudsman Guy Gendron's ruling highlights media issues with accurate extreme rain reporting here as well: https://bit.ly/2RPx7p9
Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room f...Robert Muir
OPWA Right of Way Management Conference, Ajax, Ontario, November 13, 2018
Keynote Address by Robert Muir, Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
The presentation "Thinking Fast and Slow in the ROW, Mission Possible Strategies to Make Room for Bike Lanes and Bioswales in a Crowded Environment" explores strategic infrastructure investment planning and cost-effective asset management for public assets. The cost efficiency assessment of various mitigation measures is explored using benefit cost analysis in the context of Markham's comprehensive city-wide Flood Control Program. The program includes many projects that demonstrate a high return on investment (ROI) for flood risk reduction, making them eligible for Infrastructure Canada's Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund (DMAF) grant funding.
Wetland Flood Reduction - Distribution of Wetland Features and Applicability ...Robert Muir
This presentation was prepared to advise Green Communities Canada on the applicability of green infrastructure for flood risk reduction as part of the Ontario Urban Flooding Collaborative. It includes a review of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation's Laurel Creek watershed assessment (a case study in their 2017 report "When the Big Storms Hit: The Role of Wetlands to Limit Urban and Rural Flood Damage". The review suggests that the ICCA case study is atypical for both urban and rural areas in Ontario, meaning that opportunities for flood storage and damage reduction are more limited than suggested.
Addressing Climate Change through Engineering PracticeRobert Muir
Climate Change Training Session for Municipal and Conservation Authority Engineers, Planners and Decision Makers.
Toronto - 26 April 2017
Presented by Hani Farghaly, PhD., P.Eng.
Ontario Ministry of Transportation
This comprehensive review of highway drainage infrastructure resiliency under climate change indicates that impacts to storm sewers, roadway drainage surfaces, and culverts is limited with projected climate change effects.
Robert Muir Level of Service Upgrades and Climate Change Adaptation NRC Works...Robert Muir
Workshop on adaptation to climate change impact on
Urban / rural storm flooding
February 27, 2018
Changes in catchment characteristics
and remediation priorities due to climate change and
level of service upgrades
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
Robert Muir Extreme Rainfall Trends - NRC Workshop on urban rural storm flood...Robert Muir
The National Research Council's Workshop on adaptation to climate change impact on Urban / rural storm flooding February 27, 2018. Presentation on: National, regional, local IDF trend
analysis & hyetograph selection to
define risks and system stresses
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
ICLR Friday Forum: Reducing flood risk in Toronto (February 2016)glennmcgillivray
ICLR held a Friday Forum workshop February 19, 2016 entitled 'Reducing flood risk in Toronto', led by David Kellershohn with Toronto Water. Urban flooding continues to drive significant losses for homeowners, municipalities and insurers across Canada. Toronto has been affected by significant urban flood events in 2000, 2005 and 2013. This presentation focused on basement flood protection work underway in Toronto.
David Kellershohn, as the Manager of Stormwater Management for the City of Toronto, is responsible for implementing the City's Wet Weather Flow Master Plan. This program includes the City's Basement Flooding Protection Program and the Coordinated Watercourse Erosion Management program. Ten year capital budget plans for these efforts exceed $1.6 billion over the next ten years.
Prior to joining the City of Toronto in 2009, David worked in the land development consulting industry for 12 years where he designed drainage systems for projects ranging from large subdivisions and large downtown condominium buildings through to small individual site designs.
David has a Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Waterloo and a Master's Degree in Civil Engineering from McMaster University, where he studied the water quality of Hamilton Harbour.
Flood plains to floor drains design standard adaptation for urban flood risk ...Robert Muir
Presented to Flood Master Class by Insurance Business Magazine this presentation examines quantitative risk assessment of riparian, overland and wastewater (sanitary) sewer system flooding. Analysis of City of Toronto and City of Markham historical flooding is shown to be highly correlated to design standard limitations related to the era of construction. Risks are shown to extend over a range of scales from floodplain (river) to flood drain (homes) based on detailed GIS spatial analysis. Flood risk mitigation measures are presented to achieve design standard adaptation in local areas with specific limitations.
ICLR Friday Forum: Floodplain mapping over Canada: performance at inundation...glennmcgillivray
ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar on June 18, 2021 titled 'Floodplain mapping over Canada: Investigating performance at inundation level and understanding dynamics of population flood exposure', led by Dr. Slobodan Simonovic, Director of Engineering Studies, ICLR/Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University.
Surface runoff estimates from atmospheric re-analysis datasets are increasingly preferred by hydrologists for modelling floods in regions where traditional observations are not sufficiently available. This presentation explores the fidelity of four widely used re-analyses runoff products as hydraulic forcings to a flood inundation model in describing inundation dynamics over Canada. The re-analysis obtained runoff is used with the Catchment-based Macroscale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) global hydrodynamic model, to derive high-resolution floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The floodplain maps derived from each reanalysis dataset are compared with the regional developed or ‘benchmark floodplain maps’ over six selected flood-prone basins (test basins) in Canada through a set of performance statistics. Using the superior reanalysis runoff dataset, a few historic flood events over the test basins are simulated and subsequently compared with MODIS satellite-derived floodplain information. We notice that more than 75% of the inundation is precisely captured for these events.
The second part of the presentation will focus on the use of four global population datasets (together with census data from Statistics Canada as the reference), their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment across Canada. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains.
This work (i) strongly supports the need for careful selection of a re-analysis dataset while performing inundation modelling for large regions: and (ii) also highlights the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. The results derived from this study may be useful for flood risk management and contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.
On July 16, 2021 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Edmonton's approach to stormwater flood management', led by Susan Ancel, Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. EPCOR has developed a $1.6 billion Stormwater Integrated Resource Plan (SIRP) to mitigate the impacts of flooding in the community. SIRP envisions all stakeholders – citizens, businesses, industry, the City of Edmonton and EPCOR working together to build a flood-resilient future. The goal is to Slow, Move, Secure, Predict and Respond to flooding events to prevent or reduce the impact. EPCOR’s planned flood mitigations projects will take 20 years to complete. The types of projects that are included in SIRP include dry ponds, low impact development, tunnels, combined sewer separation, outfall control gates, inflow/infiltration reduction, building flood proofing, increased sensors and automatic controls and emergency response equipment. The plan was developed through consultation with Climate Change Adaptation, Insurance and Financial sector groups across North America.
Susan Ancel is the Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. In her prior role, she was Director of Stormwater Strategies, where she was responsible for developing an Integrated Resource Plan for flood mitigation that considered capital and operational risk mitigation planning, as well as the interrelationships between utilities, insurance, disaster response agencies and the public. Prior to her Stormwater Strategies role she was the Director of Water Distribution and Transmission for EPCOR. Susan is a Mechanical engineer with over 30 years’ experience with the municipal utility sector. She has also served on numerous industry committees including the Board of Directors for the Geospatial Information Technology Association (GITA) from 2001 to 2007 and was President of GITA in 2006. She currently serves on the Board of Directors for Canadian Water Network.
The team will cover the Current Status of the project (Rembrandt Koppelaar), Water Demands (Xiaonan Wang, Koen H. van Dam), Infrastructure construction (Rembrandt Koppelaar) and Toilet usage (Xiaonan Wang, Koen H. van Dam)
Results, calculations, and assumptions of the resilience.io WASH sector in GA...
Similar to Ontario Society of Professional Engineers OSPE Green Infrastructure Roundtable - Green Infrastructure – Cost Effectiveness and Technical Challenges for Flood Mitigation
During this meeting, the technical team from Imperial College London (ICL) and the Institute for Integrated Economics Research (IIER) showed the preliminary results from the resilience.io model prototype. They showed the water demand per district and how the technology infrastructure modelling can be used to meet water demands and sanitation treatment needs, as well as use case indicators and model functionality.
A presentation about protecting clean water during construction projects. Presented by Robert Roseen of Geosyntec Consulting during the Buzzards Bay Coalition's 2014 Decision Makers Workshop series. Learn more at www.savebuzzardsbay.org/DecisionMakers
Robert Muir Green Infrastructure for Climate Adaptation NRC Workshop on Urban...Robert Muir
Workshop on adaptation to climate change impact on
Urban / rural storm flooding
February 27, 2018
Is green infrastructure an effective
adaptation measure to climate change in
old and new developments?
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
Presentation- Fourth meeting of the Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation -...OECD Environment
Presentation- Fourth meeting of the Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation - Data and analytics infrastructure adaptation, Jim Hall, University of Oxford
A more robust cost benefit analysis model of permeable pavement for stormwater management in the Hudson Valley.
Presented at the 2014 Southeast NY Stormwater Conference
Audience: planners, municipal decision makers, consultants and general public
Ecosystem services for watershed management, Water Planning,Riccardo Rigon
Blal Sdem Esmail Ph.D. defense. Blal talk covers his work on water management seen from the point of view of ecosystem services. He briefly presents two case studies in Germany and Asmara.
Financial modeling of public private partnership in wastewater treatmentIJARIIT
This article basically determines the assets in which water resources are polluted the environment by anthropogenic
sources like agricultural and household formation. As matter of fact, Public think that the environmental impact of wastewater
pollution has increased day by day many conventional wastewater treatment techniques like chemical adsorption. Hence the
activated sludge is applied to remove the pollution but there are still some limitations which have high operation costs. The use
of waste water treatment in public and private works as a different medium is receiving increased interest so that its low
operation and maintenance costs. As per as the water treatment is concerned it is easy to have a good effectiveness and ability
for degrading contaminant. Hence, this paper reviews is the use of waste water treatment technologies to remove contaminants
from wastewater like a high oxidant which represent the main pollutants in wastewater as per as a financial modeling of the
public private partnership of wastewater treatment.
Dr Xiaonan Wang presents the How to build resilience.io for sustainable urban energy and water systems, Energy seminar for The Energy Futures Lab at Imperial College, London on 2nd December 2016
Incorporating Cost‐Benefit Analysis into AF project proposals: Example applic...SPREP
Similar to Ontario Society of Professional Engineers OSPE Green Infrastructure Roundtable - Green Infrastructure – Cost Effectiveness and Technical Challenges for Flood Mitigation (20)
City of Markham IDF & Design Hyetograph Review Robert Muir
Review of historical Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data in Markham, Ontario, Canada as well as IDF trends in southern Ontario and across Canada. Presented to the Southern Ontario Municipal Stormwater Discussion Group. Comparison with Insurance Industry and media reporting on climate change effects (e.g., Telling the Weather Story). Review of design hyetographs and design standards updates to improve resiliency.
Climate Change & Urban Development Have Impacted Streamflows in Southern OntarioRobert Muir
Dr. Trevor Dickinson, Professor Emeritus University of Guelph presented his work with Ramesh Rudra and Kishor Panjabi, Water Resources Engineering, University of Guelph to the Southern Ontario Stormwater Discussion Group at its September 27, 2018 meeting in Brantford, Ontario. The presentation shows the effects of climate on streamflows in southern Ontario including lower spring flow volumes and rates, and the effects of urbanization on streamflows including higher spring and summer flows. The distribution of flooding events through the years is reviewed, showing fewer spring and more summer period flood events. Climate change appears to increase winter runoff volumes due to higher temperatures which reduce spring volumes and peaks, a decrease in flood risk.
MNRF CWRA Technical Workshop March 6 2018 Rob Grech and Robert Muir City of M...Robert Muir
Presentations by Rob Grech and Rob Muir, City of Markham on climate change and modelling uncertainty including past rainfall intensity trends, future climate projections, application of IDF data, and ROI and cost considerations for flood risk remediation.
Toronto Overland Flow and Basement FloodingRobert Muir
Correlating Reported Basement Flooding
During 2000, 2005 and 2013
Extreme Rainfall Events with
100-Year Major Overland Flow Spread
Holistic Urban Flood Risk Assessment
From Flood Plain to Floor Drain
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Lost Rivers & Urban Flooding, Media, Myths & Smart Mitigation - Toronto Wards...Robert Muir
Presentation to Toronto Ward 13's Green 13 on urban flooding and risk factors including lost rivers, urbanization and intensification, and critical review of extreme rainfall intensity trends that are decreasing in Toronto and southern Ontario based on Environment and Climate Change Canada's Engineering Climate Datasets (version 2.3). Media myths regarding flooding are exposed including the GO Train flood of July 8, 2013 that was not unprecedented but was rather a low risk flood event that has occurred frequently in the past and the insurance industry discredited claims in "Telling the Weather Story" that weather that used to happen every 40 years is happening every 6 years. The economics of green infrastructure, low impact development measures, are evaluated including representative project costs and are shown to be unaffordable for widespread implementation in Wards 13 / 14. 3D Arc Scene images of Toronto lost rivers are illustrated across the city and within the historical Wendigo Creek and Spring Creeks in Ward 12 (aka lost rivers). Variations in reported basement flood density show lower flood risk in the Ward 13 combined sewer catchment (consistent with Toronto wide trends), and show higher reported flood density in partially separated sewer catchments.
Disentangling Impacts of Climate & Land Use Change on Quantity & Quality of R...Robert Muir
Climate change has lowered spring flood risks in Ontario rural watersheds due to higher temperatures, lower snowpack and lower spring runoff volumes. There have been no changes in precipitation affecting runoff volumes, and observed increases in summer runoff are due to urbanization, not climate change effects. Dr. Dickinson and Dr Rudra rightly describe the need for 'disentangling', given the prevalent approach of ignoring hydrologic changes in watersheds and incorrectly linking flood events on climate change and extreme rainfall and precipitation changes that have not been observed in local and regional data.
These findings on annual and seasonal patterns complement work by Environment and Climate Change Canada on short duration rainfall that shows no detectable trend in rainfall intensities in the Engineering Climate Datasets contrary to insurance industry statements:
https://www.slideshare.net/RobertMuir3/storm-intensity-not-increasing-factual-review-of-engineering-datasets
Explore the innovative world of trenchless pipe repair with our comprehensive guide, "The Benefits and Techniques of Trenchless Pipe Repair." This document delves into the modern methods of repairing underground pipes without the need for extensive excavation, highlighting the numerous advantages and the latest techniques used in the industry.
Learn about the cost savings, reduced environmental impact, and minimal disruption associated with trenchless technology. Discover detailed explanations of popular techniques such as pipe bursting, cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) lining, and directional drilling. Understand how these methods can be applied to various types of infrastructure, from residential plumbing to large-scale municipal systems.
Ideal for homeowners, contractors, engineers, and anyone interested in modern plumbing solutions, this guide provides valuable insights into why trenchless pipe repair is becoming the preferred choice for pipe rehabilitation. Stay informed about the latest advancements and best practices in the field.
Forklift Classes Overview by Intella PartsIntella Parts
Discover the different forklift classes and their specific applications. Learn how to choose the right forklift for your needs to ensure safety, efficiency, and compliance in your operations.
For more technical information, visit our website https://intellaparts.com
Sachpazis:Terzaghi Bearing Capacity Estimation in simple terms with Calculati...Dr.Costas Sachpazis
Terzaghi's soil bearing capacity theory, developed by Karl Terzaghi, is a fundamental principle in geotechnical engineering used to determine the bearing capacity of shallow foundations. This theory provides a method to calculate the ultimate bearing capacity of soil, which is the maximum load per unit area that the soil can support without undergoing shear failure. The Calculation HTML Code included.
Quality defects in TMT Bars, Possible causes and Potential Solutions.PrashantGoswami42
Maintaining high-quality standards in the production of TMT bars is crucial for ensuring structural integrity in construction. Addressing common defects through careful monitoring, standardized processes, and advanced technology can significantly improve the quality of TMT bars. Continuous training and adherence to quality control measures will also play a pivotal role in minimizing these defects.
About
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface.
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system.
• Compatible with IDM8000 CCR.
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
• Easy in configuration using DIP switches.
Technical Specifications
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
Key Features
Indigenized remote control interface card suitable for MAFI system CCR equipment. Compatible for IDM8000 CCR. Backplane mounted serial and TCP/Ethernet communication module for CCR remote access. IDM 8000 CCR remote control on serial and TCP protocol.
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system
• Copatiable with IDM8000 CCR
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
Application
• Remote control: Parallel or serial interface.
• Compatible with MAFI CCR system.
• Compatible with IDM8000 CCR.
• Compatible with Backplane mount serial communication.
• Compatible with commercial and Defence aviation CCR system.
• Remote control system for accessing CCR and allied system over serial or TCP.
• Indigenized local Support/presence in India.
• Easy in configuration using DIP switches.
COLLEGE BUS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PROJECT REPORT.pdfKamal Acharya
The College Bus Management system is completely developed by Visual Basic .NET Version. The application is connect with most secured database language MS SQL Server. The application is develop by using best combination of front-end and back-end languages. The application is totally design like flat user interface. This flat user interface is more attractive user interface in 2017. The application is gives more important to the system functionality. The application is to manage the student’s details, driver’s details, bus details, bus route details, bus fees details and more. The application has only one unit for admin. The admin can manage the entire application. The admin can login into the application by using username and password of the admin. The application is develop for big and small colleges. It is more user friendly for non-computer person. Even they can easily learn how to manage the application within hours. The application is more secure by the admin. The system will give an effective output for the VB.Net and SQL Server given as input to the system. The compiled java program given as input to the system, after scanning the program will generate different reports. The application generates the report for users. The admin can view and download the report of the data. The application deliver the excel format reports. Because, excel formatted reports is very easy to understand the income and expense of the college bus. This application is mainly develop for windows operating system users. In 2017, 73% of people enterprises are using windows operating system. So the application will easily install for all the windows operating system users. The application-developed size is very low. The application consumes very low space in disk. Therefore, the user can allocate very minimum local disk space for this application.
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Vaccine management system project report documentation..pdfKamal Acharya
The Division of Vaccine and Immunization is facing increasing difficulty monitoring vaccines and other commodities distribution once they have been distributed from the national stores. With the introduction of new vaccines, more challenges have been anticipated with this additions posing serious threat to the already over strained vaccine supply chain system in Kenya.
TECHNICAL TRAINING MANUAL GENERAL FAMILIARIZATION COURSEDuvanRamosGarzon1
AIRCRAFT GENERAL
The Single Aisle is the most advanced family aircraft in service today, with fly-by-wire flight controls.
The A318, A319, A320 and A321 are twin-engine subsonic medium range aircraft.
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TECHNICAL TRAINING MANUAL GENERAL FAMILIARIZATION COURSE
Ontario Society of Professional Engineers OSPE Green Infrastructure Roundtable - Green Infrastructure – Cost Effectiveness and Technical Challenges for Flood Mitigation
1. Ontario Society of Professional Engineers – Green Infrastructure
Green Infrastructure –
Cost Effectiveness and
Technical Challenges for
Flood Mitigation
Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.
Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham
January 30, 2018 - Mississauga, Ontario 1
2. OUTLINE
1) Regulations & Policies on Cost Effective Infrastructure
2) Ontario Capital Costs
3) Ontario Lifecycle Costs and Economic Impacts
4) ROI for Flood Mitigation
5) Green Infrastructure Infiltration Impacts & Flood Risk
6) Green Infrastructure Water Supply Risks
2
3. Provincial Policy Statement (2014):
“Infrastructure … shall be provided in a coordinated, efficient and cost-effective
manner ….”
Infrastructure for Jobs and Prosperity Act (2015) O. Reg. 588/17 (2017):
Asset management plans must show “For each asset category, the lifecycle activities that
would need to be undertaken … and the costs of providing those activities.”
These activities must also consider “the lowest cost to maintain the current levels
of service”
Class Environmental Assessments (2015):
For wastewater projects “Economic Environment includes commercial and industrial land
uses and activities. It also includes the financial costs associated with the alternatives,
including construction, operation, maintenance, and property costs.”
Regulating Infrastructure Cost in Ontario
3Provincial Policy Statement 2014 Infr. for Jobs and Prosperity O Reg 588/17 Municipal Class EAs
4. History of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
4
• Long-standing requirement to evaluate
feasibility of flood reduction projects:
Eckstein 1958: “Feasibility is interpreted to mean that ‘the
benefits, to whomever they may accrue, are in excess if
the estimated costs’, following a requirement specified in
the Flood Control Act of 1936.”
Watt 1989: “It is therefore reasonable to require that all
projects that provide or improve flood protection be
justified economically before public funds are allocated”
“benefits should exceed cost by a sufficient margin”
https://files.onhttps://nparc.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/eng/view/accepted/?id=7b18d8c9-6c5f-425f-8338-ac4a24f8170bario.ca/infrastructure_update_2017-_eng_0.pdf
Watt 1989:
5. OSPE Bill 139 Comments on Green Infr. Cost
• “Estimates suggest that green infrastructure adaptation costs could be as
high as $400,000 per hectare, inclusive of recently tendered construction
projects. This means that the long-term province-wide costs to
developers and municipalities—and, ultimately, the end consumer and
economy—total hundreds of billions of dollars.” (OSPE - Oct. 2017)
Hectares Urban Land x Cost Per ha = Initial Capital Cost
852,000 x $390,000 = $332 B
5
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1az42-2TZrcmRm2uHVcxG6mc3LBtb8vv-
https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2016/11/green-infrastructure-solution-to-urban.html
OSPE Bill 139 Comments:
Initial Cost Assessment :
6. Green Infrastructure Capital Cost Review
• Costs from various sources have confirmed magnitude of cost issue and
need to assess lifecycle costs and cost effectiveness (over 1200 projects).
6
https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/05/are-lids-financially-sustainable-in.html
https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/green-infrastructure-capital-and.html
Ontario Tenders :
Philadelphia, NY Costs :
Ontario Tenders Philadelphia Clean Waters
$575,000 per ha
$568,000 per ha
$783,000 per imp. ha
New York State
7. OSPE Bill 139 Comments on Green Infr. Cost
• “Estimates suggest that green infrastructure adaptation costs could be as
high as $400,000 per hectare, inclusive of recently tendered construction
projects. This means that the long-term province-wide costs to
developers and municipalities—and, ultimately, the end consumer and
economy—total hundreds of billions of dollars.” (Oct. 2017)
Hectares Urban Land x Cost Per ha = Initial Capital Cost
852,000 x $726,000 = $619 B
7
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1XFCCwHe8R6VQ5J4kZ-hHyZVSdnL8zuYfUnit Cost for Flood Control (2019 WEAO Paper) :
8. OSPE Comments on Long-Term Infr. Plan 2017
• “green infrastructure must be viewed through the same lens as
conventional infrastructure, adhering to established asset management
principles and full cost accounting—meaning it must be addressed up-front
and directly, considering system-wide costs.” (Jan. 2018)
Full-cost accounting includes : Operation and maintenance costs (inspection,
routine intervention /restoration), depreciation
(long-term replacement).
8
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1_ehoK0opvzeBFLv1Vrc6QFIbS9B5qFA8
https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/green-infrastructure-capital-and.html
LTIP Comments:
Lifecycle Cost Assessment :
9. Lifecycle Costs for Green Infrastructure - Concerning
9https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2018/07/green-infrastructure-capital-and.htmlLifecycle Cost Assessment :
Capital cost - 860,000 / imp.ha
O&M cost - $20,000/imp.ha/yr
Service life – 50 years (avg.)
Annual Cost – $ 15.8 B
- $3,100 / household / year
- 3% of household
disposable income
Current Ontario stormwater
deficit is $6.8 B.
10. 0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
Standards Downspout
Prgm.
Backwater
Valve Pgm.
San.Sewer
Upgrades
Stm. Sewer
Upgrades
Green Infr.
Retrofit
Grey
Infrastructure
Flood
Benefit / Cost
= 2.5 (Insured Losses)
Green
Infrastructure Flood
Benefit / Cost = 0.11
(Insured Losses)
Best Practices
No Regrets
Policies &
Programs
High ROI
Approved Program $ 283 M
$1.7 B
for
25% of
City
= 6x
Fee
Increase
ROI on Infrastructure – Markham Flood Control Program
Cost($M)
$3 M
$1300/ha
$27 M
$11,000/ha
$253 M
$120,000/ha
$1.7 B
$726,000/ha
11. Damages & ROI on Infrastructure – Industry Research
• Relies only on ‘meta-analysis’:
– no local data or ignores published
local data (e.g., Pelly L. damages)
– no engineering analysis (Autocase
Metrolinx TEV, Green Team Analytics)
– incomplete benefit/cost assessments
(omits benefits) & mixes-up one-time
capital & annual costs (e.g., Oakville)
– extrapolates atypical wetland settings
to apply to broad urban/rural areas
– ‘rebrands’ quality control projects as
life and money saving flood projects
– ignores environmental constraints &
impacts with wetland flood control
https://goo.gl/xbxvyT
https://goo.gl/epVuBe
Green Team Report Review:
ICCA Wetland Report Review:
11
https://goo.gl/Y3vWzxIBC Wetland Report Review: :
12. Meta-Analysis & Press Promotion – Industry Research
• Overstates ‘meta-analysis’ of benefits as
real “Performance monitoring results” for
flood damage reduction (e.g., Pelly L.
benefits page 42)
• Omits cost-effectiveness of recommended
physical interventions: “cost rankings are
not normalized with consideration of
performance effectiveness” (Section 4.4)
• However Press Release (Jan. 18, 2019)
promotes recommendations as “solutions
that can be deployed practically and cost-
effectively within communities”
12
https://goo.gl/Y3vWzxICCA Weathering the Storm Report Review: :
13. 13
Infiltration & Flood Risk from Green Infrastructure
• Source control BMP infiltration risks on
sewer systems were identified in 1992
• Workshop of Ontario experts reviewed
1991 Interim Guidelines that first
introduced green infrastructure for new
development water quality control.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1dNFzxZxlzxUx-g9DzvVHSvwceXhddkCq
https://www.slideshare.net/RobertMuir3/robert-muir-green-infrastructure-for-climate-adaptation-nrc-workshop-on-urban-rural-storm-flooding-february-27-2018-ottawa
OSPE Watershed Planning Guidance Comments :
National Research Council Workshop Feb 2018 :
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9bXiDM6h5ViNkN1NTVweGZZMG8
1992 Workshop Summary :
14. 14
Infiltration & Flood Risk from Green Infrastructure
• Infiltration in
sanitary sewers
explains > 60% of
sewer back-up risk
at a postal code
spatial scale.
• Green infrastructure
relies on runoff
infiltration and
increases core
stress driving
basement flooding.
Sanitary Sewer Capacity
Insurance Back-up
Risk Code
Sanitary
Infiltration
Peak Flow Rate
Infiltration Drives Basement
Back-Up Risks in the Most Flood-
Prone, Partially-Separated Sewer
Service Areas
10 Yrs Continuous Flow Modelling (all areas)
All-pipe Hydraulic Model (2 Master Plans)
Sewer Back-up
Risk Level
Sanitary
Infiltration
Peak Flow Rate
Sanitary Sewer Capacity
Correlation of Sewer Back-up Risk
Level, Sewer Hydraulic Capacity, &
Normalized Infiltration Peak Flow Rate
Stress at Postal Code Scale
15. 15
Green Infrastructure Water Supply Risks
• Infiltration of runoff violates MECP Procedure F-6-1 to prevent ‘sewage’
(runoff in OWRA) discharge over municipal potable water supply lines.
• Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health publication Sources,
Pathways, and Relative Risks of Contaminants in Surface Water and
Groundwater: A Perspective Prepared for the Walkerton Inquiry
summarizes contamination types and indicates that presumably ‘clean’
runoff sources such as roof runoff can, contrary to local LID design
guidelines, exhibit high contaminant loads.
http://www.hydrorelief.org/frackdata/references/RisksContamWater.pdf
Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health :
https://www.ontario.ca/page/f-6-1-procedures-govern-separation-sewers-and-watermains
F-6-1 Procedures to Govern Separation of Sewers and Watermains :
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1T3vXEJ_nBi8e30KpcawVTfFPKx7A6y_v
WEAO MOECC LID Guidance review July 2017 :
16. 16
Green Infrastructure Water Supply Risks
• Infiltration of runoff increases
chloride concentrations in
aquifers. Municipal wells in
Waterloo, Kitchener and
Cambridge exceed Ontario
objectives and are increasing.
• Green infrastructure that
infiltrates road, and parking lot
runoff degrades drinking water
source quality.
https://www.therecord.com/news-story/9046980-chloride-levels-are-rising-in-waterloo-region-drinking-water/
Region of Waterloo Chloride Levels:
17. Conclusions
• System-wide capital cost and lifecycle cost assessment shows universal
implementation of green infrastructure (e.g., retrofitting 852,000
untreated hectares in Ontario) is financially unrealistic.
– > ½ trillion dollars in capital (opportunity cost for other priorities)
– $3100 / household / year = significant financial impact
• Green infrastructure infiltration stress on sanitary sewers increases
basement back-up risk in older service areas - shows focused
implementation should be avoided.
• Benefit/cost ratio is unfavourable – increasing program fees by 6-times,
up to 40% of total City tax revenue (financially unsustainable) with higher
capital costs alone (Markham Case Study focused implementation).
17
18. Conclusions … Continued
• Favourable green infrastructure benefit/cost analysis is based on
unreliable ‘meta-analysis’, with incomplete engineering input, and
extrapolates atypical ‘pilot’ studies to make unfounded universal claims.
• Green infrastructure runoff infiltration water supply impacts
overlooked by proponents focused on surface water systems:
– Clean runoff sources have high metals and pathogen concentrations
receiving only moderate treatment (Walkerton Inquiry)
– Infiltrated chlorides accelerate corrosion/deterioration of ductile iron
watermains, reducing asset life and increasing break risk (high chlorides
decrease soil resistivity)
– Infiltrated chlorides degrade aquifer and municipal well quality (e.g.,
Waterloo, Kitchener, Cambridge)
18
19. Thank You
Questions ?
More Rob :
Blog: www.CityFloodMap.com
Podcast: Open During Construction on iTunes
Twitter: @RobertMuir_PEng
More City of Markham :
Web: www.markham.ca
Twitter: @CityofMarkham
19
Editor's Notes
Good morning. I’d like to review green infrastructure cost effectiveness and technical challenges for flood mitigation, and advance some of the earlier OSPE and Markham commentary on this.
So I’ll review the legislation that compels us to consider cost.
Look at what widespread green infrastructure costs would mean in Ontario.
What lifecycle costs would mean in terms of funding requirements and tax impacts.
Then look at the return on investment of green infrastructure … compare that to grey infrastructure.
Then look at the adverse impacts of green infrstructure on flooding in urban areas and water supply risks.
There are many drivers for assessing infrastructure cost efficiency in Ontario from high level PPS goals to regulations surrounding asset management plans and within Eas.
Any infrastructure investment must consider costs and cost effectiveness. For green infrastructure, that has not received a lot of attention in Ontario when considering whole systems. We need to look at whole systems to understand the cost challenges.
Why assess costs and benefits (that is the technical effectiveness to solve specific problems) for flood control?
This is a long standing principle in water resource management where we accept that flood protection must be justified economically, benefits exceeding costs.
This goes back to the 1930’s in the US.
In the past cost benefit analysis was done for large projects and the US Army Corp of Engineers produced guidance for it and encouraged system-wide analysis.
Watt in Hydrology of Floods in Canada reminds us that flood protection must be economically justified.
XXX
Green infrastructure has never had that guidance on cost or a system-wide assessment on cost effectiveness for flooding.
Are green infrastructure costs a big thing? Yes. OSPE flagged this in late 2017 using some initial projects costs.
The Ontario GDP is 825 billion so 300 billion is a big number which warrants a closer look.
A closer look.
I’ve compiled 24 Ontario project costs, reviewed details for Philadelphia’s Clean Water Pilot – that’s over 1100 projects, and over a hundred New York projects and the overall cost of $800,000 per impervious hectare or 5-600,000 are justified so we are looking at half a trillion dollar in Ontario capital cost.
So that is a staggering cost across the province if green infrastructure is applied wherever water balance and at source quality controls are not in place, say pre year 2000 development.
There is a link to the background behind the higher $726 thousand per hectare unit cost which factors up Philadelphia CSO control costs for higher flood control volumes. That will be in my WEAO paper this year.
Why is that important to recognize that cost can be high? Because there is a narrative out there that green infrastructure saves money.
OSPE comments that a careful look at lifecycle costs is need.
This chart shows lifecycle costs for initial capital, O&M and rebuilds assuming we implement green infrastructure over 50 year.
We would level out at an annual cost of $15.8B.
W 5,169,170 private households in Ontario that’s $3100 / household / year or over 3% of disposable household income
15.8 B is a Big number – current stormwater deficit is 6.8B
https://globalnews.ca/news/3981337/ontario-household-debt-rising/
Ontario Debt to income 171%, Debt 154k/household, disposable income = 154/1.71 = 90k
Aside:
To fund this would increase municipal taxes in Markham by 3100/6762 = 46% based on average property taxes in Markham in 2018
http://torontostoreys.com/2018/07/gta-cities-highest-lowest-property-taxes/
How infrastructure about the cost effectiveness of infrastructure investments – we can look at this with Markham’s Flood Control Program and green we examined
This has the costs of all Markham’s Flood Control activities (list them).
We can break these down into Best Practices – the No Regrets Policies and Programs, a million dollars each – they have high benefit cost ratio, maybe cost a less that 1500 per hectare.
CLICK Grey infrastructure, those are sanitary and storm sewer upgrades – 283 millions with a benefit-cost ratio of 2 considering insured or higher with total losses. 11 thousand and 120 thousand per hectare respectively – the benefit cost or flood reduction considering insured losses is 2.5 – spend a dollar get 2.5 dollars of benefit
CLICK – then Green infrastructure, if we converted a quarter of the city, we would have a benefit cost ratio of 0.11 for insured losses – spend a dollar, get 11 cents of benefit
CLICK – We have 283 million approved in the overall program. An we consider green infrastructure only in the most strategic locations, as part of park revitalization and for one large naturalized pond retrofit costing 10’s of millions.
CLICK – But we cannot justify spending over 1.7 B in capital across the city, raising taxes 30%, to add rain gardens and bioswales in all old areas, along all the streets.
Today in a boardroom in Markham these costs, excluding green infrastructure, are being used to set the Flood Control Program fee for the next 5 years – it is a non-starter to suggest that we would adopt green infrastructure, increase costs and fees 6 times to $300 a year which is about 30% of Markham’s total tax intake. Unrealistic.
We must focus on the most cost effective grey infrastructure solutions for flood control. We look at other benefits in the WEOA paper – green infrastructure benefits do not exceed costs
Besides cost there are technical reasons to avoid green infrastructure in old areas.