From http://www.futureexploration.net/

1. Newspaper extinction timeline
• Media strategy
• Thought leadership content
• Scenario planning
Published under a Creative Commons
Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence
Created by Ross Dawson
www.futureexploration.net
— stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas
When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017
UK, Iceland 2019
Canada, Norway 2020
Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021
Australia, Hong Kong 2022
Denmark 2023
New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024
Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025
South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026
Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027
Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028
France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029
Germany, Estonia 2030
Japan, Metro China 2031
Hungary, Lithuania 2032
Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033
Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034
Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035
Russia, Turkey 2036
Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037
Mongolia 2038
Argentina 2039
Rest of the world 2040+

2. GLOBAL NATIONAL
Increased cost
performance
of mobile
phones
Increased cost
performance
of tablets/
e-readers
Development
of high
performance
digital paper
Changes in
newsprint
and print
production
costs
Uptake of
digital news
monetization
mechanisms
Trends in
advertising
spend and
allocation
Development
of open
platforms
Technology uptake
Fixed bandwidth
availability and costs
Mobile bandwidth
availability and costs
Smartphone and e-reader
penetration
Industry structure
Financial position of
leading newspapers
Balance of advertising
and print sales revenue
Newspaper distribution
structures
Demographics
Age structure, birth rates,
and immigration
Degree of urbanization
Increase in literacy
Consumer behaviors
Media channel preferences
Willingness to pay for news
Relative interest in local
and global news
Government
Degree of regulation
Government financial
support for media
Censorship and
obstruction
Economic
development
Economic growth rate
Wealth inequality
Urban/ regional wealth
disparity
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* Notes to the timeline
This schedule for newspaper
extinction shows best
estimates given current trends.
The timeline is intended to
highlight the diversity of global
media markets and stimulate
useful strategic conversations.
Newspapers in their
current form becoming
insignificant is not the
same as the death of
news-on-paper, which
will continue in a
variety of forms.
Ways that newspaper publishers of
today will succeed in the transition
beyond “newspapers in their
current form” include transitioning
to other channels, providing
personalized news-on-paper, and
tapping niche markets.
Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors