MACROECONOMICS

       The Big Picture




                         1
the Three (3) Goals of


MACROECONOMIC POLICY

            Price Stability
            Economic Growth
            Full Employment

                              2
INFLATION
A sustained increase in the general
  price level as measured by the
consumer price index (CPI) or the
    implicit price deflator (IPD)
        A continuing rise in the general
            level of prices of goods and
       services. The purchasing power
        of the monetary unit ~ such as
         the ($) dollar ~ declines when
                    inflation is present.



                                            3
with respect to:   INFLATION
A Consumer Price Index (the “CPI”) measures changes in the
price level of consumer goods and services purchased by
households. The CPI is a statistical estimate constructed using
the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are
collected periodically. The annual percentage change in a CPI is
used as a measure of inflation.

The GDP deflator (implicit price deflator for GDP) is a measure of
the level of prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods
and services in an economy. In most systems of national
accounts the GDP deflator measures the ratio of nominal (or
current-price) GDP to the real (or chain volume) measure of GDP.
Dividing the nominal GDP by the GDP deflator and multiplying it
by 100 would then give the figure for real GDP, hence deflating
the nominal GDP into a real GDP measure. Consider the price
deflator as the ratio of the current year price of a good to the
same good’s price in some defined base year.

                                                                   4
Unanticipated INFLATION Hurts
 Lenders and Helps Borrowers
    Why interest? The interest rate is the
    price the borrower pays for the use of
    the money. Lenders have to be
    compensated for foregoing current
    consumption.
    The real rate of interest
     – The nominal or market rate minus
     – The rate of inflation
    example: If the nominal rate is 5% and
    the rate of inflation is 6%, then the real
    rate of interest is ___%

                                                 5
Unanticipated INFLATION Hurts
 Lenders and Helps Borrowers
     Why interest? The interest rate is the
   price the borrower pays for the use of the
   money. Lenders have to be compensated
   for foregoing current consumption.
    The real rate of interest
     – The nominal or market rate minus
     – The rate of inflation
     example: If the nominal rate is 5% and
   the rate of inflation is 6%, the real rate of
   interest is -1%

                                                   6
INFLATION
is a Perverse Robin Hood
 Helps
 – Borrowers
 – Some businesses
 – Homeowners




                      7
INFLATION
is a Perverse Robin Hood
 Hurts
  –   Lenders
  –   Home owners
  –   Fixed income earners




                             8
why Lenders are Hurt


the Lender   $20.00
                           the Borrower



                  $20.00
                   the Purchase

                                          9
why Lenders are Hurt
with Interest Rate = 5%




 $21.00
                          Inflation rate = 9%




                          $21.80
Real Interest rate = -4%                    10
how INFLATION Affects Others
 Distorts price signals
 Those living on fixed incomes
 Businesses with fixed contracts
 Property owners with fixed leases
 Businesses who can raise prices
 COLAs (Cost Of Living Adjustments)
                                     11
How Does INFLATION or
DEFLATION Affect You?
   If your purchasing power increases
   as a result of inflation or deflation
   then you are a winner.


   If your purchasing power falls or
   decreases as a result of inflation or
   deflation then you lose.


                                           12
Full Employment
The Labor Force

 individuals aged from age 16 to
   age 65 ~ able to work and willing
   to work ~ working or actively
   seeking work

Determining the unemployment
rate ~ via the Household Survey

= Number of People Unemployed
          Labor Force

                                       13
what about the Change ( ∆ ) in
 Nonfarm Payroll Employment
  as an “Establishment Survey”

  it’s a “Better” but not a “Good”
  indicator
       …asks the Question(?) ~ What is the
       difference between the number of
       employees you had last month and
       the number of employees you have
       this month?


                                             14
with respect to measuring   Economic Growth
     Nominal GDP doesn’t tell you
     anything ~ the Nominal GDP statistic
     must be “deflated”

     you can use the IPD statistic to
     change Nominal GDP to Real GDP



     REAL GDP = Nominal GDP * (100)
                   IPD

                                            15
with respect to   Economic Growth
  To engage the process of
[+]
 measuring the rate of economic
 growth use the formula:




 ∆    GDP(r)   =    Real GDP2 - Real GDP1
                         Real GDP1
                                            16
THE CIRCULAR FLOW
MACRO
ECONOMIC
RELATIONS




                       17
AN “EXPANDED” CIRCULAR FLOW
Funding and
Consideration
For GOODS &
SERVICES




                         18
MacroEconomics will measure:
        Total Expenditures (“E”)
  E = C + I + G + (X-M)
  C = Personal Consumption
  I = Business Investment (spending)
  G = Total Government Spending
  (X-M) = Net Exports
          (exports minus imports)


                                       19
to recap:    Main Points ( I )
MacroEconomics investigates relationships
between different sectors of the economy
and the affect of changes via different
variables on those sectors.
Macroeconomics is the study of market
aggregates such as gross domestic product,
the unemployment rate and the consumer
price index.
Three (3) basic goals for any economic
system are: (i) full employment, (ii) price
stability and (iii) economic growth

                                              20
to recap:     Main Points (II)
Inflation is defined as an increase in the
overall price level

Inflation arbitrarily redistributes purchasing
power and distorts price signals



The real rate of interest (r%) is the market
(nominal) interest rate (i%) minus the rate
of inflation (∆p).

                                                 21
to recap:    Main Points (III)
Two measures of the strength of the labor
market are the unemployment rate and the
change in nonfarm payroll employment
Economic growth is measured by the rate of
change of Real GDP for a specific time period
(usually a year)



Economic growth should be strong enough to
generate employment but not so strong as to
cause inflation (how does this happen?)


                                                22
to recap:     Main Points (IV)
The circular flow illustrates the
interdependence of different sectors of the
economy

Total expenditures are composed of funds
expended on consumption, investment,
government and net exports




E = C + I + G + (X-M)

                                              23
to recap:           Main Points (V)
Consumption is the largest single spending
category (roughly 2/3 of total spending) in GDP
and is affected mainly by income levels
Investment is the least stable spending category
and is determined mainly by the relationship
between the cost of borrowing and the expected
return on investment
Government spending is fairly predictable due to
its contractual nature and built in stabilizers

(Economic Stability refers to an absence of excessive fluctuations in the
macroeconomy. An economy with fairly constant output growth and low
and stable inflation would be considered economically stable)


                                                                            24

Mpp#016+macro economics.introduction.(24)

  • 1.
    MACROECONOMICS The Big Picture 1
  • 2.
    the Three (3)Goals of MACROECONOMIC POLICY Price Stability Economic Growth Full Employment 2
  • 3.
    INFLATION A sustained increasein the general price level as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) or the implicit price deflator (IPD) A continuing rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The purchasing power of the monetary unit ~ such as the ($) dollar ~ declines when inflation is present. 3
  • 4.
    with respect to: INFLATION A Consumer Price Index (the “CPI”) measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households. The CPI is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically. The annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a measure of inflation. The GDP deflator (implicit price deflator for GDP) is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy. In most systems of national accounts the GDP deflator measures the ratio of nominal (or current-price) GDP to the real (or chain volume) measure of GDP. Dividing the nominal GDP by the GDP deflator and multiplying it by 100 would then give the figure for real GDP, hence deflating the nominal GDP into a real GDP measure. Consider the price deflator as the ratio of the current year price of a good to the same good’s price in some defined base year. 4
  • 5.
    Unanticipated INFLATION Hurts Lenders and Helps Borrowers Why interest? The interest rate is the price the borrower pays for the use of the money. Lenders have to be compensated for foregoing current consumption. The real rate of interest – The nominal or market rate minus – The rate of inflation example: If the nominal rate is 5% and the rate of inflation is 6%, then the real rate of interest is ___% 5
  • 6.
    Unanticipated INFLATION Hurts Lenders and Helps Borrowers Why interest? The interest rate is the price the borrower pays for the use of the money. Lenders have to be compensated for foregoing current consumption. The real rate of interest – The nominal or market rate minus – The rate of inflation example: If the nominal rate is 5% and the rate of inflation is 6%, the real rate of interest is -1% 6
  • 7.
    INFLATION is a PerverseRobin Hood Helps – Borrowers – Some businesses – Homeowners 7
  • 8.
    INFLATION is a PerverseRobin Hood Hurts – Lenders – Home owners – Fixed income earners 8
  • 9.
    why Lenders areHurt the Lender $20.00 the Borrower $20.00 the Purchase 9
  • 10.
    why Lenders areHurt with Interest Rate = 5% $21.00 Inflation rate = 9% $21.80 Real Interest rate = -4% 10
  • 11.
    how INFLATION AffectsOthers Distorts price signals Those living on fixed incomes Businesses with fixed contracts Property owners with fixed leases Businesses who can raise prices COLAs (Cost Of Living Adjustments) 11
  • 12.
    How Does INFLATIONor DEFLATION Affect You? If your purchasing power increases as a result of inflation or deflation then you are a winner. If your purchasing power falls or decreases as a result of inflation or deflation then you lose. 12
  • 13.
    Full Employment The LaborForce individuals aged from age 16 to age 65 ~ able to work and willing to work ~ working or actively seeking work Determining the unemployment rate ~ via the Household Survey = Number of People Unemployed Labor Force 13
  • 14.
    what about theChange ( ∆ ) in Nonfarm Payroll Employment as an “Establishment Survey” it’s a “Better” but not a “Good” indicator …asks the Question(?) ~ What is the difference between the number of employees you had last month and the number of employees you have this month? 14
  • 15.
    with respect tomeasuring Economic Growth Nominal GDP doesn’t tell you anything ~ the Nominal GDP statistic must be “deflated” you can use the IPD statistic to change Nominal GDP to Real GDP REAL GDP = Nominal GDP * (100) IPD 15
  • 16.
    with respect to Economic Growth To engage the process of [+] measuring the rate of economic growth use the formula: ∆ GDP(r) = Real GDP2 - Real GDP1 Real GDP1 16
  • 17.
  • 18.
    AN “EXPANDED” CIRCULARFLOW Funding and Consideration For GOODS & SERVICES 18
  • 19.
    MacroEconomics will measure: Total Expenditures (“E”) E = C + I + G + (X-M) C = Personal Consumption I = Business Investment (spending) G = Total Government Spending (X-M) = Net Exports (exports minus imports) 19
  • 20.
    to recap: Main Points ( I ) MacroEconomics investigates relationships between different sectors of the economy and the affect of changes via different variables on those sectors. Macroeconomics is the study of market aggregates such as gross domestic product, the unemployment rate and the consumer price index. Three (3) basic goals for any economic system are: (i) full employment, (ii) price stability and (iii) economic growth 20
  • 21.
    to recap: Main Points (II) Inflation is defined as an increase in the overall price level Inflation arbitrarily redistributes purchasing power and distorts price signals The real rate of interest (r%) is the market (nominal) interest rate (i%) minus the rate of inflation (∆p). 21
  • 22.
    to recap: Main Points (III) Two measures of the strength of the labor market are the unemployment rate and the change in nonfarm payroll employment Economic growth is measured by the rate of change of Real GDP for a specific time period (usually a year) Economic growth should be strong enough to generate employment but not so strong as to cause inflation (how does this happen?) 22
  • 23.
    to recap: Main Points (IV) The circular flow illustrates the interdependence of different sectors of the economy Total expenditures are composed of funds expended on consumption, investment, government and net exports E = C + I + G + (X-M) 23
  • 24.
    to recap: Main Points (V) Consumption is the largest single spending category (roughly 2/3 of total spending) in GDP and is affected mainly by income levels Investment is the least stable spending category and is determined mainly by the relationship between the cost of borrowing and the expected return on investment Government spending is fairly predictable due to its contractual nature and built in stabilizers (Economic Stability refers to an absence of excessive fluctuations in the macroeconomy. An economy with fairly constant output growth and low and stable inflation would be considered economically stable) 24