This document discusses considerations for maintaining an independent strike capability for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) through the use of unmanned aircraft. It summarizes the benefits of unmanned, stealthy, and refuelable aircraft, such as increased mission endurance without risk to aircrew. A decomposition of persistent sortie operations is presented, showing how unmanned aircraft can generate significantly more time on station than manned aircraft through aerial refueling and reduced turnaround times. The document argues that unmanned aircraft can substantially reduce life cycle costs compared to manned systems due to lower training requirements for operators versus pilots. Potential areas of RAAF interest that could benefit from long-endurance unmanned strike capabilities are identified.

1. Advanced Unmanned
Concepts—Considerations
for Maintaining an
Independent RAAF Strike
Capability
23 August 2018
Mike Tarlton
Director, Advanced Programs
Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

2. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable?
Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness
Summary
RAAF Potential Areas of Interest
Persistent Sortie Decomposition
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

3. 3
RAAF
Learmonth
854 nm
RAAF
Pearce
2,235 nm
RAAF
Darwin
1,690 nm
RAAF Potential Areas of Interest
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

4. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable?
Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness
Summary
RAAF Potential Areas of Interest
Persistent Sortie Decomposition
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

5. Why Unmanned, Stealthy, and Refuelable?
•Massive increase in mission/combat endurance
•Enhanced survivability in persistent operations
•No aircrew capture/casualty risk
•Significant potential cost-effectiveness
advantages—particularly life-cycle cost
Decoupling the Human from the Aircraft to Increase Capability, Decrease Cost/Risk
5 Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

6. 6
Payload
UCAV BASIC Requirements
All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start
EnduranceRange
Survivability
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

7. 7
The BASIC Requirements
All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start
EnduranceRange
Survivability
Finding the right – and affordable – balanceFinding the right – and affordable – balance
Payload
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

8. Range Endurance
PayloadSurvivability
8
The BASIC Requirements
All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start
Range requirement a result of:
• Threat analyses: how much range is enough?
• Tankers: stand off distance from threats
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

9. Range
PayloadSurvivability
Endurance
9
All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start
Endurance ~ Persistence
• Aerial refueling allows optimal balance
between endurance and payload
• 8-10 hour endurance (unrefueled)
tactical air vehicles are feasible
The BASIC Requirements
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

10. EnduranceRange
PayloadSurvivability
The BASIC Requirements
All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start
Survivability
Stealth: Broadband and All Aspect
• Rqt based solely on projected threat analysis
• Not retrofittable – set with airframe design
10 Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

11. Survivability: The Kill Chain
11
Progression through the kill chain involves transition
from low-frequency surveillance radars
to medium/high-frequency targeting radars
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

12. EnduranceRange
PayloadSurvivability
12
The BASIC Requirements
All must be based on analysis – and must be correct from the start
Multi-role Mission Payloads
• ISR/T – EW – STRIKE
• Flexible payload bays
• Both air-to-surface and air-to-air roles
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

13. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable?
Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness
Summary
RAAF Potential Areas of Interest
Persistent Sortie Decomposition
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

14. 14
Assumptions:
•Vehicle characteristics
460
1,500
50
90
2
30
Kts 460 Kts
nm 1000 nm
hrs 10 hrs
% 90 %
hrs 2 hrs
min 30 min
•Fuel reserve requirement
-Cruise speed
-Organic radius
-Max sortie endurance
-Fleet availability rate
-Turnaround time
-In-flight Refueling duration
5 % (150 nm/20 mins)
Persistent Sortie Decomposition
Unmanned to Manned Comparison
Note: the aircraft depicted here and throughout this presentation are conceptual.
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

15. Manned
Air Base at 1,690 nm
Air Base at 1,690 nm
UCAV
UCAV vs. Manned System
Persistence Sortie Decomposition
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/1815

16. 0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
2.6
0.0
0
2.6
0.0
0
Manned
Air Base at 1,690 nm
UCAV
UCAV vs. Manned System
Persistence Sortie Decomposition
2.8
0.0
1
2.8
0.0
1
3.9
0.0
1
3.9
0.0
1
On-Station
2.2 hours
6.1
2.2
1
6.1
2.2
1
500 nm
1.1 hours
7.2
3.3
1
7.2
2.2
1
7.4
3.5
1
7.4
2.2
1
1,190 nm
2.6 hours
500 nm
1.1 hours
8.3
4.4
1
8.3
2.2
1
500 nm
1.1 hours
9.3
4.4
1
9.3
2.2
1
1,190 nm
2.6 hours
Refuel
0.2 hour
9.8
4.4
2
9.8
2.2
1
10.0
4.4
2
10.0
2.2
1• Begin 2 hour end-of-sortie turnaround maintenance
• The manned system makes single ingress into
defended airspace (and is forced off station by
aircrew endurance limit).
• The manned system total sortie cycle time is
12.0 hours, generating 2.2 hours on station.
10.9
4.4
2
10.9
2.2
1
On-Station
4.4 hours
500 nm
1.1 hour
12.0
5.5
2
12.0
2.2
1
Total Time
hrs
Time On Station
hrs
Ingress Refuel
CumulativeScorecard
Total Time
hrs
Time On Station
hrs
Ingress Refuel
CumulativeScorecard
End
Air Base at 1,690 nm
Turnaround Maintenance
2.0 hours
Refuel
0.5 hourRefuel
0.2 hour
Refuel
0.5 hour
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/1816

17. 0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
Manned
UCAV
UCAV vs. Manned System
Persistence Sortie Decomposition
Air Base at 1,690 nm
On-Station
2.2 hours
500 nm
1.1 hours
1,190 nm
2.6 hours
500 nm
1.1 hours
Turnaround Maintenance
2.0 hours
End
12.0
5.5
2
12.0
2.2
1
15.3
8.8
2
12.0
2.2
1• Begin 2 hour end-of-sortie turnaround maintenance
• The manned system makes single ingress into
defended airspace (and is forced off station by
aircrew endurance limit).
• The manned system total sortie cycle time is
12.0 hours, generating 2.2 hours on station.
16.3
8.8
2
12.0
2.2
1
16.8
8.8
3
12.0
2.2
1
On-Station
4.4 hours
500 nm
1.1 hour
Refuel
0.5 hour
17.9
8.8
3
12.0
2.2
1
22.3
13.2
3
12.0
2.2
1
23.3
13.2
3
12.0
2.2
1
23.8
13.2
4
12.0
2.2
1
24.9
13.2
4
12.0
2.2
1
29.3
17.6
4
12.0
2.2
1
30.3
17.6
4
12.0
2.2
1
30.8
17.6
5
12.0
2.2
1
31.9
17.6
5
12.0
2.2
1
36.3
22.0
5
12.0
2.2
1
37.3
22.0
5
12.0
2.2
1
37.8
22.0
6
12.0
2.2
1
38.9
22.0
6
12.0
2.2
1
43.3
26.4
6
12.0
2.2
1
44.3
26.4
6
12.0
2.2
1
44.6
26.4
6
12.0
2.2
1
500 nm
1.1 hours
47.2
26.4
6
12.0
2.2
1
1,190 nm
2.6 hours
• Total of 6 ingresses into defended airspace.
Turnaround Maintenance
2.0 hours
• Including 2 hour end-of-sortie turnaround
maintenance, the total sortie cycle time is
49.2 hours, generating 26.4 hours on station.
49.2
26.4
6
12.0
2.2
1
Total Time
hrs
Time On Station
hrs
Ingress Refuel
CumulativeScorecard
Total Time
hrs
Time On Station
hrs
Ingress Refuel
CumulativeScorecard
Air Base at 1,690 nm
End
Refuel
0.5 hour
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/1817

18. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable?
Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness
Summary
RAAF Potential Areas of Interest
Persistent Sortie Decomposition
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

19. 19
~10%
~5%~25%
~60%
Defining “Life Cycle Cost”
Historical Aircraft Life-Cycle Cost Composition
R&D Cost
Investment
Cost
Operational and Support
Cost
Disposal
Cost
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

20. 20
Thinking about Pilot v. UAS Operator Training
Training
Category
Pilot Flight
Hour Burden Pilot
Command-
Function UAS
Basic Flight Skills and
Specific Platform Flight
Skills
200-300 Flight Hours
Before Squadron
Assignment
Unavoidable:
Simulation already
heavily used
MMCS functions: little
value added from
actual flight hours
Ongoing Flight Skills
Certification Training
Up to 30 Hours per
Month/AC
[Combat Substitutes]
Unavoidable:
Automation could
plausibly reduce
MMCS functions: little
value added from
actual flight hours
Live Fire Exercises Infrequent Unavoidable Unavoidable
End-to-End Mission
Exercises
Infrequent Unavoidable Unavoidable
Joint Manned-
Unmanned Exercises
Infrequent – but will
increase
Unavoidable Unavoidable
Maintainer Training None [Automatic benefit] Can be scheduled, if
otherwise insufficient,
very little need for
additional flight hours
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

21. 21
Advantage of Unmanned Aircraft
Don’t Buy To Train – Don’t Fly To Train
therefore
Don’t Buy As Many – Don’t Fly As Much
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18

22. Why Unmanned, Stealthy and Refuelable?
Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness
Summary
RAAF Potential Areas of Interest
Persistent Sortie Decomposition
Approved for Public Release: NG18-1782, 8/17/18