Professor Jason Lowe discusses the impact of climate change and the rise in global temperatures, detailing specific extreme weather events in Wales and their economic consequences. The document highlights the importance of accurate climate data and projections, such as UKCP18, in understanding and adapting to future climate risks. The Met Office's climate data portal aims to provide accessible information for stakeholders to make informed decisions for resilience and adaptation against climate extremes.

1. How climate data can help address the
climate challenge
Professor JasonA. Lowe,
OBE

2. CoP27 Egypt – November 2022
Global carbon
emissions and sinks
Adaptation
Green finance Loss and damage

3. Global temperatures have risen by ~1.1°C

4. Global temperatures have risen by ~1.1°C

5. Extreme weather is causing impacts in Wales (and the rest of the UK)
High temperature: July 2022 Flooding
Breaking records:
• Welsh Maximum temperature
record broken: 37.1°C
(previously 35.2°C)
• Welsh Minimum temperature
record broken: 24.5°C
(previously 22.2°C)
• Overall 8th hottest summer on
record for Wales
Not just heat
• Summer rainfall in Wales was
just 54% of the seasonal
average.
• Pembrokeshire saw a hosepipe
ban enforced from 19th August
until the 25th October.
View of Bute Park and Cardiff Castle after Storm
Dennis (Image: Jonathan Lawrance/WalesOnline
The Storm Dennis aftermath (Getty Images)
Examples from Storm Dennis (Feb 2020) when rivers in
south and east Wales reached record levels, after a
months rain was recorded in 24 hours.
Initial estimates of £175m-£225m worth of damage to
homes and businesses (PwC).

6. Carbon dioxide emissions
The amount of future global warming depends on future emissions

7. The current national pledges of emission reductions when added
together do not limit peak global warming below 1.5°C
This means society will also need to
adapt
But we don’t know precisely how much!
Current emission pledges

8. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
UKCP18 is new set of climate
projections produced for UK
stakeholders to use to investigate
their physical climate risks

9. a greater chance
of warmer, wetter
winters and hotter,
drier summers

10. Temperature changes
Future UK annual and seasonal changes

11. Precipitation changes
Summer
2061-2070
Winter
2061-2070
Future UK annual and seasonal changes

12. Periods with 2 consecutive
days with temperature above
30°C could become around
16 times more likely
The rainfall associated
with a 2-year return period
increases by 29% by 2070s
First national climate scenarios at convection-permitting
scale to simulate improved extreme weather
UKCP Local (2.2km) projections

13. Sea-level rise
Future UK coastal changes
(by 2100 relative to 1981-2000)

14. The Met Office launched the climate data portal in May 2022
The aim is to help with
two challenges:
Making climate data,
observations and models
easier to access
Making it easier to bring
together climate data with
information relevant to
users – exposure and
vulnerability

17. Some other Wales specific examples: landslip onto railway lines
Future January precipitation projections Overlay onto terrain,
then look at gradient
Bring in the railway
line locations

18. Some other Wales specific examples: landslip onto railway lines
Construct a simple landslide risk index
This could be refined further:
• Look at soil type
• Look at local drainage information
• Look at climate extremes

19. Some other Wales specific examples: overheating in care homes

20. What are people saying about the climate portal?
'it becomes possible to service a
much larger number of customers,
and to provide them with a better
service though saving millions of
minutes of time.’ Carbon accounting
business.
'The really big benefit is
that we can quite quickly
take a look spatially at the
data to get an idea of if this
is actually going to be
useful for our purposes’.
A national nature based
charity.
‘We hope to use this information to
better understand what extreme
climate we can expect in certain
places in the future (e.g. extreme
rainfall events) and so we can take
early adaptation action in these
specific places to mitigate potential
impacts - evidence based land
management decision making! A
Government agency in Scotland
‘If I could say this is going to
happen and it is backed by
science then I’d have a
stronger case... get the
powers that be to take
things seriously’ - Cardiff
City Council

21. Optimise the energy
from renewable sources
Meet regulatory
reporting requirements
Formulate climate-aware
land management plans
How can you use the data?
Developing resilient
transportation
networks
Understanding the health
implications of climate
change
Adapting cities, urban
spaces and housing

22. Professor Jason Lowe,
OBE
Scan the QR code to visit the
climate data portal today...
https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/