- The document discusses climate change projections for South Africa over the coming decades and century.
- Temperatures are projected to increase substantially, with increases of 4-7°C possible in interior regions by late century under high emissions scenarios. This would bring temperatures outside the range historically observed.
- Drier conditions are likely for much of southern Africa, while extreme rainfall events may increase in northeastern parts of the region. More frequent and severe droughts are also projected.
Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment ReportKatestone
Presentation given by Dr Julie Arblaster Senior Research Scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Lead Author of the ‘Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility‘ chapter of Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Julie presented the findings and likely trends suggested by the future climate projections of her work.
Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment ReportKatestone
Presentation given by Dr Julie Arblaster Senior Research Scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Lead Author of the ‘Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility‘ chapter of Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Julie presented the findings and likely trends suggested by the future climate projections of her work.
Climate change is projected to impact drastically in southern African during the 21st century
under low mitigation futures (Niang et al., 2014). African temperatures are projected to rise
rapidly, in the subtropics at least at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase (James
and Washington, 2013; Engelbrecht et al., 2015). Moreover, the southern African region is
projected to become generally drier under enhanced anthropogenic forcing (Christensen et
al., 2007; Engelbrecht et al., 2009; James and Washington, 2013; Niang et al., 2014). These
changes in temperature and rainfall patterns will plausibly have a range of impacts in South
Africa, including impacts on energy demand (in terms of achieving human comfort within
buildings and factories), agriculture (e.g. reductions of yield in the maize crop under higher
temperatures and reduced soil moisture), livestock production (e.g. higher cattle mortality as
a result of oppressive temperatures) and water security (through reduced rainfall and
enhanced evapotranspiration) (Engelbrecht et al., 2015).
Navarro-Racines, C., Ramirez, J., Jarvis, A., Loheto, K. Climate modeling, climate change and agriculture. Durban Agrihack Talent Challenge in the Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture in Africa (GFIA Africa), organized by the Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), the Durban University of Technology (DUT) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). (Nov-Dec 2015). Durban, South Africa.
On Friday, July 19, 2019 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'The Northern tornadoes project: Identifying every tornado in Canada', led by Dr. Greg Kopp from Western University. Severe weather is causing ever increasing damage and losses in Canada, with wind being one of the major parameters. In spite of this, no organization in Canada has the responsibility to systematically identify and classify every tornado occurrence in Canada. The Meteorological Service of Canada has the responsibility of warning Canadians about severe or dangerous weather. When there is public interest, they examine and report on damage after the fact; they also house the official archive of tornado damage reports and occurrences. However, according to recent research using lightning and other data, this archive is believed to be incomplete with perhaps only about one-third of tornadoes being identified. Examining maps of Canada’s tornado occurrence locations and population density highlights the problem, with the “missing tornadoes” expected to be primarily in regions with low population density. A collaboration between Western University and Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) aims to address this issue by systematically working to identify all tornado occurrences in the country and archive as much information as possible for each of them. The ultimate goal of NTP is to improve severe weather prediction, mitigate against damage to people and property, and investigate future implications due to climate change. The seminar presented the overall project goals and methods, along with the outcomes from 2018.
Dr. Greg Kopp is the lead researcher in the Northern Tornadoes Project and a professor in Western University’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. He received a B.Sc.M.E. from the University of Manitoba in 1989, a M.Eng. from McMaster University in 1991 and a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Toronto in 1995. His expertise and research relate to mitigating damage to structures during extreme wind storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes. He works actively to implement research findings into practice, currently serving as Chair of the ASCE 49 Standards Committee on Wind Tunnel Testing For Buildings and other Structures, and as a member of various other Building Code committees. A former Canada Research Chair in Wind Engineering, he is also the lead researcher for the Three Little Pigs Project at The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes.
18 06 entso-e ieee pan european system adequacyLaurent Schmitt
The next Clean Energy transition requires to revisit the European System Adequacy approach for a proper coordination of the needed generation transition. The enclosed IEEE presentation provides an overview of the associated principles as coordinated through ENTSO-E.
Presentation at the Climate-Proofing South African Retirement Funds event - 31 July 2019. For details of these events, please visit www.fossilfreesa.org.za.
Climate change is projected to impact drastically in southern African during the 21st century
under low mitigation futures (Niang et al., 2014). African temperatures are projected to rise
rapidly, in the subtropics at least at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase (James
and Washington, 2013; Engelbrecht et al., 2015). Moreover, the southern African region is
projected to become generally drier under enhanced anthropogenic forcing (Christensen et
al., 2007; Engelbrecht et al., 2009; James and Washington, 2013; Niang et al., 2014). These
changes in temperature and rainfall patterns will plausibly have a range of impacts in South
Africa, including impacts on energy demand (in terms of achieving human comfort within
buildings and factories), agriculture (e.g. reductions of yield in the maize crop under higher
temperatures and reduced soil moisture), livestock production (e.g. higher cattle mortality as
a result of oppressive temperatures) and water security (through reduced rainfall and
enhanced evapotranspiration) (Engelbrecht et al., 2015).
Navarro-Racines, C., Ramirez, J., Jarvis, A., Loheto, K. Climate modeling, climate change and agriculture. Durban Agrihack Talent Challenge in the Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture in Africa (GFIA Africa), organized by the Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), the Durban University of Technology (DUT) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). (Nov-Dec 2015). Durban, South Africa.
On Friday, July 19, 2019 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'The Northern tornadoes project: Identifying every tornado in Canada', led by Dr. Greg Kopp from Western University. Severe weather is causing ever increasing damage and losses in Canada, with wind being one of the major parameters. In spite of this, no organization in Canada has the responsibility to systematically identify and classify every tornado occurrence in Canada. The Meteorological Service of Canada has the responsibility of warning Canadians about severe or dangerous weather. When there is public interest, they examine and report on damage after the fact; they also house the official archive of tornado damage reports and occurrences. However, according to recent research using lightning and other data, this archive is believed to be incomplete with perhaps only about one-third of tornadoes being identified. Examining maps of Canada’s tornado occurrence locations and population density highlights the problem, with the “missing tornadoes” expected to be primarily in regions with low population density. A collaboration between Western University and Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) aims to address this issue by systematically working to identify all tornado occurrences in the country and archive as much information as possible for each of them. The ultimate goal of NTP is to improve severe weather prediction, mitigate against damage to people and property, and investigate future implications due to climate change. The seminar presented the overall project goals and methods, along with the outcomes from 2018.
Dr. Greg Kopp is the lead researcher in the Northern Tornadoes Project and a professor in Western University’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. He received a B.Sc.M.E. from the University of Manitoba in 1989, a M.Eng. from McMaster University in 1991 and a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Toronto in 1995. His expertise and research relate to mitigating damage to structures during extreme wind storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes. He works actively to implement research findings into practice, currently serving as Chair of the ASCE 49 Standards Committee on Wind Tunnel Testing For Buildings and other Structures, and as a member of various other Building Code committees. A former Canada Research Chair in Wind Engineering, he is also the lead researcher for the Three Little Pigs Project at The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes.
18 06 entso-e ieee pan european system adequacyLaurent Schmitt
The next Clean Energy transition requires to revisit the European System Adequacy approach for a proper coordination of the needed generation transition. The enclosed IEEE presentation provides an overview of the associated principles as coordinated through ENTSO-E.
Presentation at the Climate-Proofing South African Retirement Funds event - 31 July 2019. For details of these events, please visit www.fossilfreesa.org.za.
DSD-INT 2019 Understanding impact of extreme sea levels under climate change ...Deltares
Presentation by Kun Yan, Deltares, and Sanne Muis, VU University Amsterdam, at the Data Science Symposium, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Thursday, 14 November 2019, Delft.
"Water for Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean Under a Changing Climate" is University of Nebraska research by Robert Oglesby, Clinton Rowe, Azar Abadi and Rachindra Mawalagedara. Please attribute accordingly.
The research was presented Sept. 19, 2017 at the Faculty Fellow Dialogue, hosted by the Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute at the University of Nebraska.
Present vs. Future Climate: What Science tells Us?ipcc-media
Presentation given by Fredolin T. Tangang, Vice-Chair of the Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during the EU Climate Diplomacy Day that was held at the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia on 17 June 2015.
Presentation held by Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), at the learning event The Community Based Adaptation and Resilience in East and Southern Africa’s Drylands, held in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia by Care International Adaptation Learning Program for Africa (ALP), The CGIAR research program on Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and African Insect Science for Food and Health (ICIPE)
Satellite passive microwave measurements of the climate crisisChelle Gentemann
Invited presentation at the NASEM Committee on Radio Frequencies 2021 Fall Meeting. An overview of how passive microwave measurements are used to understand climate change.
Day 2 UN-ESCWA Alignment with the 10-Year Strategic Plan of UNCCD: Climate Ch...elodieperrat
Workshop on Alignment & implementation of National Action programmes with the UNCCD 10-year Strategy in the Arab Region
League of Arab States (18- 20 June 2014), Dubai - UAE
UN-ESCWA Mr Tarek Ismael
Similar to Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika van die volgende paar dekades tot die volgende eeu (20)
The Farming Systems Trial (FST)® at Rodale Institute is America’s longest running, side-by-side comparison of organic and chemical agriculture. Started in 1981 to study what happens during the transition from chemical to organic agriculture, the FST surprised a food community that still scoffed at organic practices. After an initial decline in yields during the first few years of transition, the organic system soon rebounded to match or surpass the conventional system. Over time, FST became a comparison between the long term potential of the two systems.
As we face uncertain and extreme weather patterns, growing scarcity and expense of oil, lack of water, and a growing population, we will require farming systems that can adapt, withstand or even mitigate these problems while producing healthy, nourishing food. After more than 30 years of side-by-side research in our Farming Systems Trial (FST), Rodale Institute has demonstrated that organic farming is better equipped to feed us now and well into the ever changing future.
Regenerative Agriculture as a Farming SolutionNelCoetzee
By: Jay Fuhrer. Rebuilding and maintaining life in the soil is directly linked to the longevity and reliability of our future agriculture; recognizing plants, animals, and soils evolved together over geological time
Have you ever wondered how search works while visiting an e-commerce site, internal website, or searching through other types of online resources? Look no further than this informative session on the ways that taxonomies help end-users navigate the internet! Hear from taxonomists and other information professionals who have first-hand experience creating and working with taxonomies that aid in navigation, search, and discovery across a range of disciplines.
This presentation, created by Syed Faiz ul Hassan, explores the profound influence of media on public perception and behavior. It delves into the evolution of media from oral traditions to modern digital and social media platforms. Key topics include the role of media in information propagation, socialization, crisis awareness, globalization, and education. The presentation also examines media influence through agenda setting, propaganda, and manipulative techniques used by advertisers and marketers. Furthermore, it highlights the impact of surveillance enabled by media technologies on personal behavior and preferences. Through this comprehensive overview, the presentation aims to shed light on how media shapes collective consciousness and public opinion.
Acorn Recovery: Restore IT infra within minutesIP ServerOne
Introducing Acorn Recovery as a Service, a simple, fast, and secure managed disaster recovery (DRaaS) by IP ServerOne. A DR solution that helps restore your IT infra within minutes.
0x01 - Newton's Third Law: Static vs. Dynamic AbusersOWASP Beja
f you offer a service on the web, odds are that someone will abuse it. Be it an API, a SaaS, a PaaS, or even a static website, someone somewhere will try to figure out a way to use it to their own needs. In this talk we'll compare measures that are effective against static attackers and how to battle a dynamic attacker who adapts to your counter-measures.
About the Speaker
===============
Diogo Sousa, Engineering Manager @ Canonical
An opinionated individual with an interest in cryptography and its intersection with secure software development.
Sharpen existing tools or get a new toolbox? Contemporary cluster initiatives...Orkestra
UIIN Conference, Madrid, 27-29 May 2024
James Wilson, Orkestra and Deusto Business School
Emily Wise, Lund University
Madeline Smith, The Glasgow School of Art
This presentation by Morris Kleiner (University of Minnesota), was made during the discussion “Competition and Regulation in Professions and Occupations” held at the Working Party No. 2 on Competition and Regulation on 10 June 2024. More papers and presentations on the topic can be found out at oe.cd/crps.
This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
Supercharge your AI - SSP Industry Breakout Session 2024-v2_1.pdf
Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika van die volgende paar dekades tot die volgende eeu
1. Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika – van die
volgende paar dekades tot die einde van die
eeu
Francois Engelbrecht1 and Christien Engelbrecht2
1. WNNR Natuurlike Hulpbronne en die Omgewing
2. Landbou Navorsingsraad – Instituut vir Grond, Klimaat en Water
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8. Summer-season rainfall
anomalies over the Free
State and North West
provinces (x-axis) and
Niño 3.4 sea-surface
temperature anomalies
(y-axis) for 1901-2015.
Rainfall anomalies from
CRU and GCPC are for
DJF. SST anomalies
from AMIPII are for
OND.
All anomalies were
calculated with respect
to the 1971-2000
baseline period.
CSIR-ACCESS
2015/16 1997/98
2016/17
10. The 2015/16 El Niño (image from NOAA):
One of the strongest events ever recorded. Strong El Niño’s are
projected to double in frequency towards the end of 21st century under
low mitigation
11. In September 2016, the
entire summer rainfall
region was in a state of
mild drought, or worse.
The Free State, northern
KwaZulu-Natal and
eastern Mpumalanga
was in a state of severe
drought.
How will climate change
impact on the attributes
of drought in the mega-
dam region of SA?
Drought in southern Africa
A dust storm rolls over the plains of
the Free State in December 2015.
12. Drought in southern Africa
Depleted grazing in Kruger Park in
September 2016.
By September 2016,
The entire summer
rainfall region of
South Africa was in
a state of mild
drought, or worse.
The Free State,
northern KwaZulu-
Natal and eastern
Mpumalanga was in
a state of severe
drought .
13. 2015 warmest year ever recorded globally (+ 1 ºC); summer of 2015/16
the warmest ever recorded over southern Africa (+ 2 ºC)
2015/16 anomalies relative to 2006/7 to 2014/15 climate; ARC station data;
Engelbrecht C et al. (2017) in preparation
17. • Computer clusters available to the
project include the CHPC in South
Africa (24 000 + CPUs – VRESM
allocation is currently ~ 3 000 000 core
hours per quarter);
• The VRESM design has achieved
some comparable resolution and
computing times with less than 10% of
the cores required by some more
traditional coupling approaches.
• CSIR NRE data servers and CHPC
VRESM allocated space currently
amounts to 600 TB
HPC and code-
scalability
CCAM-TOM (CSIRO) scaling with 35
atmosphere levels and 30 ocean
levels, suggesting excellent
simulation speed for computing
resources
0.1
1
10
100
100 1000 10000
Simulationyearsperday
Number of cores
CCAM scaling 35L 30OC192 (50 km) C384 (26 km) C768 (13 km)
18. From CSIRO: Martin Dix
Projected temp anomalies for 2081-
2100 relative to pre-industrial
conditions (0-degree world)
AR5 WG1 estimations relative to
1986-2005 were adjusted with a 0.6
°C factor
Only RCP 2.6 can safely keep us well
below the Cancun agreed 2 °C (Long
Term Global Goal), whilst the world is
currently between A2 and RCP 8.5
Emission Scenarios and Representative Concentration
Pathways
Scenario Temp anomalies relative to pre-
industrial (adapted from AR5)
RCP 2.6 0.9 to 2.3
RCP 4.5 1.7 to 3.2
RCP 6 2.0 to 3.7
RCP 8.5 3.2 to 5.4
2.6
26. Climate Change and
the seasonal cycle
• Regional climate models realistically represent
the present-day seasonal cycle in rainfall and
circulation across the African continent
(Engelbrecht et al., 2009)
• Model projections of future climate change are
generally not indicative of significant changes
in the seasonal cycle of rainfall and
temperature over Africa, however, significant
changes are projected in the amplitude of
seasonal extrema
• The most interesting changes are to be found
on the application side, e.g. a changing
seasonal cycle in energy demand and wild
fires (e.g. Engelbrecht et al., 2015; ERL 10:
085004)
• Figure shows the present-day (black) and end-
of-the-century range of projected changes in
the seasonal cycle of the Keetch-Byran
drought index over southern and tropical Africa
(Engelbrecht et al., 2015; ERL 10: 085004)