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Market Trends in Clean Energy and
Responsible Gas Production




                                Maria van der Hoeven
                                    Executive Director
                          International Energy Agency



                                Toronto, August 2012

                                               © OECD/IEA 2011
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track




                                   Progress is too slow in
                                   almost all technology areas

                                   Significant action is required
                                   to get back on track




                                                             © OECD/IEA 2011
                                                                © OECD/IEA 2012
Renewable power forecast to accelerate

        Hydropower remains the main renewable power source
        Non-hydro renewable sources grow at fast rates

       TWh
       7 000

       6 000

       5 000

       4 000

       3 000

       2 000

       1 000

          0
           2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
               Hydropower   Wind onshore     Bioenergy         Solar PV
               Geothermal   Wind offshore    CSP               Ocean


                                                                 IEA MRMR© OECD/IEA 2011
                                                                         Report, 2012
Hydro – the backbone of low-carbon electricity
in Canada

           900
                                                                    Other renewables
           800

           700                                                      Wind

           600
                                                                    Solar
           500
    TWh




                                                                    Hydro
           400
                                                                    Nuclear
           300

           200                                                      Fossil w CCS

           100
                                                                    Fossil w/o CCS
             0
                                    4DS            2DS
                    2009                   2050


  Renewables, covering today already more than 60% of electricity generation, could
    reach a share of almost three quarters by 2050 in the 2-degree scenario (2DS)
                                                                                       © OECD/IEA 2011
Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of
between 1.5 and 4.5




  ... but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found
                              in other sectors.
                                                                     © OECD/IEA 2011
A smart, sustainable energy system




            A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
            more unified and integrated energy system
                                                        © OECD/IEA 2011
                                                           © OECD/IEA 2012
Unconventional Gas: Golden Rules are Key


                               Selected natural gas trade volumes, 2035
                                 Net imports          Net exports
                                                                            Golden Rules Case
                   China
                                                                            Additional net trade in
         European Union                                                     Low Unconventional Case


   United States & Canada


             Middle East


                  Russia


                        -600     -400   -200    0     200     400     600
                                                                    bcm
  Gas trade in the Low Unconventional Case is up 30%, some trade patterns are reversed,
      gas prices are higher & the position of the main conventional exporters reinforced
                                                                                                © OECD/IEA 2011
Recommendations to Governments


  1. Create an investment climate of confidence
     in clean energy

  2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the
     hidden” fuel of the future

  3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development
     and demonstration (RD&D)

  4. Establish ‘golden rules’ to maintain the unconventional
     gas revolution


                                                                   © OECD/IEA 2011
                                                                      © OECD/IEA 2012
Market Trends in Clean Energy and
Responsible Gas Production




                                Maria van der Hoeven
                                    Executive Director
                          International Energy Agency



                                Toronto, August 2012

                                               © OECD/IEA 2011

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Market Trends in Clean Energy and Responsible Gas Production

  • 1. Market Trends in Clean Energy and Responsible Gas Production Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Toronto, August 2012 © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 2. Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 3. Renewable power forecast to accelerate  Hydropower remains the main renewable power source  Non-hydro renewable sources grow at fast rates TWh 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Geothermal Wind offshore CSP Ocean IEA MRMR© OECD/IEA 2011 Report, 2012
  • 4. Hydro – the backbone of low-carbon electricity in Canada 900 Other renewables 800 700 Wind 600 Solar 500 TWh Hydro 400 Nuclear 300 200 Fossil w CCS 100 Fossil w/o CCS 0 4DS 2DS 2009 2050 Renewables, covering today already more than 60% of electricity generation, could reach a share of almost three quarters by 2050 in the 2-degree scenario (2DS) © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 5. Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of between 1.5 and 4.5 ... but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors. © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 6. A smart, sustainable energy system A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 7. Unconventional Gas: Golden Rules are Key Selected natural gas trade volumes, 2035 Net imports Net exports Golden Rules Case China Additional net trade in European Union Low Unconventional Case United States & Canada Middle East Russia -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 bcm Gas trade in the Low Unconventional Case is up 30%, some trade patterns are reversed, gas prices are higher & the position of the main conventional exporters reinforced © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 8. Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) 4. Establish ‘golden rules’ to maintain the unconventional gas revolution © OECD/IEA 2011 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 9. Market Trends in Clean Energy and Responsible Gas Production Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Toronto, August 2012 © OECD/IEA 2011