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Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
This document discusses three scenarios for the future of energy - a 2 degree scenario, a 4 degree scenario, and a 6 degree scenario. It recommends that governments create an investment climate for clean energy, unlock energy efficiency potential, and accelerate innovation. A key message is that progress on clean energy technologies like renewables, electric vehicles, and carbon capture and storage needs to accelerate to transition to a sustainable energy system.
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Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
- 1. Tapping technology’s potential tosecure a clean energy future Ms. Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director Mr. Bo Diczfalusy, Director Presentation to Press June 11 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
- 2. ETP 2012 –Choice of 3 Futures 2DS 4DS 6DS a vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is now energy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentially Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating results and CO2 emissions energy efficiency The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario © OECD/IEA 2012
- 3. Sustainable future stillin reach Are we on track to Can we get on Is a clean energy reach a clean track? transition urgent? energy future? NO ✗ YES ✓ YES ✓ © OECD/IEA 2012
- 4. Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) © OECD/IEA 2012
- 5. A smart, sustainableenergy system Centralised fuel production, power and storage A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012
- 6. A smart, sustainableenergy system Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Distributed energy resources Smart energy system control H2 vehicle Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012
- 7. Clean energy: slowlane to fast track Cleaner coal power Nuclear power Renewable power CCS in power CCS in industry Progress is too slow in Industry almost all technology areas Significant action is required Buildings to get back on track Fuel economy Electric vehicles Biofuels for transport © OECD/IEA 2012
- 8. Low-carbon electricity: aclean core 45 000 Other 40 000 Wind 35 000 Solar 30 000 Hydro Nuclear TWh 25 000 Biomass and waste 20 000 Oil 15 000 Gas with CCS 10 000 Gas 5 000 Coal with CCS 0 Coal 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS © OECD/IEA 2012
- 9. Natural Gas: atransitional fuel 7 500 Power Generation from Natural Gas 5 000 TWh 2 500 0 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Other non-OECD India China OECD Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’ © OECD/IEA 2012
- 10. The CCS infantmust grow quickly Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Mt CO2 Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year © OECD/IEA 2012
- 11. Industry must becomemore efficient 12 6DS 10 Other industries 8 Chemicals and petrochemicals GtCO2 6 Aluminium 4 Pulp and paper 2 Iron and steel 0 Cement 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 12. Electric vehicles needto come of age 200 FCEV Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell Electricity Passenger LDV sales (million) 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline 100 Diesel hybrid Gasoline hybrid 50 CNG/LPG Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012
- 13. Translating targets intoaction 8 7 6 million sales/year 5 Projection 4 (Estimated from each country's 3 target) 2 1 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Government targets need to be backed by policy action © OECD/IEA 2012
- 14. Translating targets intoaction 8 7 Manufacturers 6 production/sales million sales/year 5 4 3 Projection 2 (Estimated from each country's 1 target) 0 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 Government targets need to be backed by policy action © OECD/IEA 2012
- 15. Building Blocks ofa Cleaner Future Total energy savings 33 EJ Space heating 22% Other 15% Water heating Services 12% Lighting, 3% Residential Cooling and ventilation, 3% Water heating, 2% Cooking 15% Space heating, 7% Appliances Cooling and ventilation 10% Lighting 5% 6% About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector © OECD/IEA 2012
- 16. Building sector challengesdiffer 2.5 2.0 Billion households 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
- 17. Building sector challengesdiffer 2.5 2.0 Billion households 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD Non OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
- 18. Heating & Cooling:huge potential Renewable heat Integration with electricity District heating and cooling network Co-generation Surplus heat Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 19. Emissions must beeliminated by 2075 A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 20. Clean energy investmentpays off Additional Additional investment investment Power Power With Fuel savings Industry price effect Industry Transport Without price effect Residential Transport Commercial Undiscounted Total savings Fuel savings Fuel savings Residential 3% Biomass Commercial Coal 10% Oil Gas - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40 USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 21. Clean energy investmentpays off Additional Additional investment investment Power With Fuel savings Industry price effect Transport Without price effect Residential Commercial Undiscounted Total savings Fuel savings 3% Biomass Coal 10% Oil Gas - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40 USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 22. Clean energy investmentpays off Additional Additional investment investment Power With Fuel savings Industry price effect Transport Without price effect Residential Commercial Undiscounted Total savings Fuel savings 3% Biomass Coal 10% Oil Gas - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40 USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 23. For much more,please visit www.iea.org/etp © OECD/IEA 2012