This document discusses managing complexity using the Cynefin framework. It begins with the author's background and reflections on past project performance. It then discusses that complexity is the norm for many projects and initiatives due to interconnected systems and emergent behaviors. Traditional reductionist approaches are insufficient for complex problems. The Cynefin framework categorizes problems into obvious, complicated, complex, and chaotic domains and suggests sensemaking and appropriate strategies for each. The document advocates understanding complexity, influencing rather than controlling systems, and learning over rigid planning when managing complex initiatives and environments.

1. MANAGING
COMPLEXITY
TathagatVarma
Founder & CEO
http://ThoughtLeadership.in

2. ABOUT ME
• 1991: Ex-Computer Scientist (DRDO),Antarctic Researcher
(16 months @ Indian station “Maitri”)
• 1995: Hi-Tech Products (Siemens, Philips, Huawei, McAfee),
Leader (NetScout,Yahoo!, [24]7 Innovation Labs)
• 2014:Thought Leader, Strategy Consulting,Agility &
Innovation Coach (5000+ trained), Public Speaker (200+ talks),
Blogger (150+ blogs), Startup mentor (100+ startups), Visiting
Faculty (5+ courses taught),Author (1 book published, 2 WIP)

3. REFLECTION #1
Rate your performance on last project, or last one year:
1. Disaster:Whatever we do, we never seem to win. Every project is "Dead on
Arrival”…
2. Firefighting:We don’t really believe in planning, but somehow we are able to react.
Met partial objectives but often at great cost…
3. Meticulous:Able to plan for anticipated changes and respond gracefully to
“negative risks”. Met objectives reasonably well…
4. Strategic:Able to accommodate unanticipated changes and well-prepared to
exploit “positive risks”. Exceeded objectives…
5. Futurist:Able to initiate significant change and disrupt the status quo. Created a
new opportunity…

4. REFLECTION #1
• Why are you where you are?
• How many $$$s are you bleeding?
• What would it take for you to fix that?

5. WE ARE IN BIGTROUBLE!
65%
Mega projects
fail!
50%Software projects
are challenged!
70%
Change initiatives
fail!
90%
Startups fail!
80%
NPDs fail!

6. POOR PERFORMANCE ISTHE
NORM…
PMI Pulse of the Profession, 2013
Standish Group, 2015

7. …WITH HUGE IMPACT
PMI Pulse of the Profession, 2013

8. PMI PULSE OFTHE
PROFESSION 2016

9. WHY?

11. HOW DO WE NORMALLY
SOLVE PROBLEMS?

12. TYPICAL STEPS
• Define:Articulate the problem
• Reductionism: Breakdown into smaller components
and known patterns
• Creativity: Generate alternatives and potential solutions
• Decision-making: Evaluate and select best ones
• Project management: Implement solution(s)

13. REDUCTIONISM
• The practice of analysing and describing a
complex phenomenon in terms of its
simple or fundamental
constituents, especially when this is said
to provide a sufficient explanation.
• The whole is equal to sum of parts

14. REDUCTONISM VS HOLISM
https://meiningera.wordpress.com/2011/10/20/reduction-vs-holism/

15. TRADITIONALVIEW
Descartes held that
non-human animals
could be reductively
explained as
automata — De
homine, 1662.

16. http://www.mgiobbi.com/2015_03_04_archive.html

17. THE ILLUSION OF
REDUCTIONISM
http://abstract-scientist.deviantart.com/art/The-illusion-of-reductionism-518557750

18. TRADITIONAL APPROACH
Problem
Structured
Components
Unstructured
Components

19. STRUCTURED
COMPONENTS
WBS, PERT/CPM Charts Gantt Chart

20. UNSTRUCTURED
COMPONENTS
Work Buffer
%
$

21. PM IS BALANCINGTHE IRON
TRIANGLE
Quality
Scope
CostTime

22. REFLECTION #2
• Situation:You have been assigned to manage a
new project (say, NPD, or an M&A, or a
Change initiative, etc.) in a totally new domain,
and your success depends on delivering
world-class results. Project kick-offs in a month.
How will you proceed?
• Time: 5min

23. PMI ON COMPLEXITY

24. WHAT IS COMPLEXITY?
• Wikipedia: Complexity describes the behaviour of a system or model
whose components interact in multiple ways and follow local rules, meaning
there is no reasonable higher instruction to define the various possible
interactions.
• Complexity is generally used to characterize something with many parts
where those parts interact with each other in multiple ways, culminating in
a higher order of emergence greater than the sum of its parts. Just like
there is no absolute definition of "intelligence", there is no absolute
definition of "complexity"; the only consensus among researchers is that
there is no agreement about the specific definition of complexity. However,
a characterization of what is complex is possible.

25. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
(CAS)
• A complex adaptive system is a "complex macroscopic collection" of
relatively "similar and partially connected micro-structures" formed in
order to adapt to the changing environment and increase its
survivability as a macro-structure
• They are complex in that they are dynamic networks of interactions,
and their relationships are not aggregations of the individual static
entities, i.e., the behavior of the ensemble is not predicted by the
behavior of the components.
• They are adaptive in that the individual and collective behavior mutate
and self-organize corresponding to the change-initiating micro-event
or collection of events.
Wikipedia

26. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM
• Melanie Mithcell: a system in which large networks
of components with no central control and simple
rules of operation give rise to complex collective
behaviour, sophisticated information processing,
and adaptation via learning or evolution.
• a system that exhibits nontrivial emergent and self-
organising behaviour

27. CHAOTIC + ORDER =
CHAORDIC
Any self-organizing, adaptive, nonlinear complex
system, whether physical, biological, or social, the
behavior of which exhibits characteristics of both
order and chaos or loosely translated to business
terminology. - Dee Hock

28. CHARACTERISTICS OF
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Let’s study each of them…

29. SIMPLE AGENTS

30. LARGE NUMBER OF
INTERACTING ELEMENTS

31. DECENTRALIZED

32. CONNECTED

33. FEEDBACK

34. SIMPLE RULES
Boids Model (1987)
1. Collision avoidance
2. Velocity matching
3. Flock centering

35. SYNCHRONIZATION

36. SYNCHRONIZATION

37. COMPLEX COLLECTIVE
BEHAVIOUR

38. RESILIENT

39. CHAOTIC / NON-LINEAR
BEHAVIOUR

40. EMERGENCE / WHOLE IS
GREATERTHAN SUM OF PARTS

41. UNPREDICTABLE /
UNREPEATABLE

42. SELF-ORGANIZATION

43. SELF-ORGANIZATION
• Self-organization is a process where some form of overall order or
coordination arises out of the local interactions between smaller
component parts of an initially disordered system.
• The process of self-organization can be spontaneous, and it is not
necessarily controlled by any auxiliary agent outside of the system. It is
often triggered by random fluctuations that are amplified by positive
feedback.
• The resulting organization is wholly decentralized or distributed over all the
components of the system.As such, the organization is typically robust and
able to survive and, even, self-repair substantial damage or perturbations

44. ADAPTATION

45. REFLECTION #3
• Can you think of elements at work that display
characteristics of complex systems?
• Explain why you think they are “complex”?
• Describe how you “manage” them currently?

46. SO, HOW COULD WE
MANAGE COMPLEXITY?
• From Predict to Understand
• From Control to Influence
• From Plan to Learn

47. CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK

48. “CYNEFIN”
• Wikipedia: Cynefin is defined as the state of being
influenced by multiple pasts of which we can only be
partly aware: cultural, religious, geographic, tribal, etc. "It
describes that relationship: the place of your birth and of
your upbringing, the environment in which you live and to
which you are naturally acclimatised." [5] or knowledge
and sense of place that is passed down the generations.
[6] Cynefin has been linked to the MaoriTūrangawaewae
which means a place to stand. [7]

49. CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK
• Wikipedia:The framework provides a typology of contexts
that guides what sort of explanations or solutions might apply.
It draws on research into complex adaptive systems theory,
cognitive science, anthropology, and narrative patterns, as well
as evolutionary psychology, to describe problems, situations,
and systems. It "explores the relationship between man,
experience, and context"[4] and proposes new approaches
to communication, decision-making, policy-making, and
knowledge management in complex social environments.

50. CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK
• Three types of
systems: ordered,
complex and
chaotic
• Ordered divided
into: obvious and
complicated
• Five domains
Ordered
Known
Fact-
based
Un-
Ordered
Emergent
Pattern-
based

51. CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK
• Sensemaking model where data proceeds framework;
not a categorisation model: where framework proceeds data
• Not a tool but a decision, analytic framework -
doesn’t tell how to solve a problem but helps you pick the
right approach
• Initially used in knowledge management, cultural change and
now used in several domains, including product development,
organisational strategy and national security

52. SENSEMAKING
“Sensemaking is the ability or attempt to make sense of
an ambiguous situation. More exactly, sensemaking is
the process of creating situational awareness
and understanding in situations of high complexity or
uncertainty in order to make decisions. It is “a
motivated, continuous effort to understand connections
(which can be among people, places, and events) in
order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively.”
http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/what-is-sense-making/

53. OBVIOUS
• Cause and Effect
relationships
• exist and self-evident
• are predictable
• and repeatable
• Sense-Categorize-Respond
• minimal expertise
required
• Apply best practice / single
right answer
• “Known-known” / “The
Known” / Stability

54. COMPLICATED
• Cause and Effect relationship
• exists, but not evident
• Sense-Analyze-Respond
• requires expertise
• analyse risks
• a range of answers
• device plan
• Good practice / multiple
right answers
• “Known-Unknown” / “The
Knowable”

55. COMPLEX
• Cause and Effect relationship
• only obvious in hindsight
• unpredictable and
• emergent outcomes
• Probe-Sense-Respond
• non-linear relationships
• conduct safe-fail
experiments,
• Emergent Practice
• “Unknown-Unknowns” /
“The Unknowable”

56. CHAOTIC
• Cause and Effect
relationship
• can't be determined at a
system level
• Act-Sense-Respond
• first priority is to contain!
• don’t look for perfect
solution
• move to another domain
• Novel practice
• “The Incoherent”

57. DISORDER
• Not knowing which domain you are
in! Causality unknown
• People will revert to their own
comfort zone in making a decision
• Immediate priority is to move to one
of the other domains

58. OBVIOUS / CHAOTIC CLIFF
• Illusion of simplicity,
might make you fall off
the cliff into chaotic
domain
• Recovery from chaotic
domain is very
expensive
• Think ofTitanic!

59. TOOLSTO MANAGE IN
COMPLEX CONTEXT
• Open up the discussion
• Set barriers
• Stimulate attractors
• Encourage dissent and discovery
• Manage starting conditions and monitor for emergence

60. REFLECTION #4
• Take the recent demonetisation initiative by the
Govt. Use Cynefin framework to map elements in
each of the five domains
• Let’s discuss what strategies would you use to
address the issues

61. RECAP
• Complexity is all around us, and increasing!
• Understanding of complex systems requires
fundamentally different thinking.
• Managing complexity requires first sensemaking,
and then choosing appropriate methods.
• Cynefin framework is a great tool for sense making.

62. REFERENCES
• A Leader's Framework for Decision Making, https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-
framework-for-decision-making
• Complexity:AVery Short Introduction, John H. Holland, 2014
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_Framework
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system
• https://www.godaddy.com/garage/tech/process/cynefin-suggestive-framework-
problem-solving/
• http://www.valuebasedprojectmanagement.com/sites/default/files/downloads/
Summary.pdf