NYC Lean Kanban Meetup - Presentation October 28, 2015 - Jocko Selberg
What do we really mean when we say that a problem is "complex"? Do we simply mean to say that a given problem is extremely complicated, or are complex problems something fundamentally different? We typically assume we are operating in a deterministic, ordered system where we can identify a cause and effect relationship, when in actuality we are often operating in a non-deterministic complex system, where these relationships can not be known in advance, if at all. How can we sense which context we are operating in and how might we act under varying degrees of uncertainty.
Complexity Theory is a term used to describe a field that is focused on the study of complex systems. Complexity science is not a single theory— it encompasses multiple theoretical frameworks, seeking answers to some of the fundamental questions about continuously changing, dynamic systems.
Cynefin is a framework developed by Dave Snowden and Cognitive Edge which seeks to helps us "make sense of the world, such that we can act in it". By understanding the fundamental differences between directed (ordered) systems and emergent (unordered) systems, we can modify our approach to match the context of the problem we are facing. The Cynefin framework takes a science based approach to dealing with critical business issues, drawing from anthropology, neuroscience and complex adaptive systems theory to improve decision making.
Complexity Theory and Cynefin have an undeserved reputation for being difficult to grasp. In this introductory talk we will break down these approaches so that we can effectively use them to help us to better act under conditions of uncertainty.
About Jocko Selberg
Jocko Selberg is currently a Project Manager for The Nielsen Company with over 15 years experience in the interactive industry. He is a non-sectarian agilist and does not own a TV.
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin frameworkKeith De La Rue
A brief overview of the Cynefin framework, with discussion on complexity, and why it is important to understand how organisations work in order to implement change.
An overview of Systems Thinking, and how to apply the ideas of Complexity Theory to management of systems, with the results being called "Complexity Thinking".
This presentation is part of the Management 3.0 course created by Jurgen Appelo.
http://www.management30.com/course-introduction/
An attempt at investigating how complexity theory can be applied to further improve thinking in Lean software development.
http://www.noop.nl
http://www.jurgenappelo.com
I am very fond of complexity thinking these days. It provides a refreshing alternative for people planning interventions and conducting evaluation in humanitarian and development aid.
How do you make a choice when possible solutions vary? How do you behave in an extraordinary situation? How do you structure complex activities?
All these situations incorporate environment and context exploration along with feasibility assessment. They call it sensemaking.
This webinar is dedicated to Cynefin sensemaking framework and it’s real life usage examples in different aspects of Agile activities.
During the webinar we will cover:
* Cynefin sensemaking framework (domains, expected behaviors)
* Using Cynefin framework for splitting User Stories
* Using Cynefin framework on retrospectives
* Using Cynefin framework for collaboration with company environment
A system is a network of interdependent components that work together to try to accomplish the aim of the system. A system must have an aim. Without an aim, there is no system. The aim of the system must be clear to everyone in the system.
But what does it all mean really and how does it apply to our businesses? What does it take to have a systems thinking or holistic view and approach?
In this presentation, we'll take a look at systems thinking, how we can get into this mindset and how it is used in the real world. With some interactive exercises, historical and present examples we hope this session will leave you with an understanding of systems thinking and its many benefits.
Understanding complexity - The Cynefin frameworkKeith De La Rue
A brief overview of the Cynefin framework, with discussion on complexity, and why it is important to understand how organisations work in order to implement change.
An overview of Systems Thinking, and how to apply the ideas of Complexity Theory to management of systems, with the results being called "Complexity Thinking".
This presentation is part of the Management 3.0 course created by Jurgen Appelo.
http://www.management30.com/course-introduction/
An attempt at investigating how complexity theory can be applied to further improve thinking in Lean software development.
http://www.noop.nl
http://www.jurgenappelo.com
I am very fond of complexity thinking these days. It provides a refreshing alternative for people planning interventions and conducting evaluation in humanitarian and development aid.
How do you make a choice when possible solutions vary? How do you behave in an extraordinary situation? How do you structure complex activities?
All these situations incorporate environment and context exploration along with feasibility assessment. They call it sensemaking.
This webinar is dedicated to Cynefin sensemaking framework and it’s real life usage examples in different aspects of Agile activities.
During the webinar we will cover:
* Cynefin sensemaking framework (domains, expected behaviors)
* Using Cynefin framework for splitting User Stories
* Using Cynefin framework on retrospectives
* Using Cynefin framework for collaboration with company environment
A system is a network of interdependent components that work together to try to accomplish the aim of the system. A system must have an aim. Without an aim, there is no system. The aim of the system must be clear to everyone in the system.
But what does it all mean really and how does it apply to our businesses? What does it take to have a systems thinking or holistic view and approach?
In this presentation, we'll take a look at systems thinking, how we can get into this mindset and how it is used in the real world. With some interactive exercises, historical and present examples we hope this session will leave you with an understanding of systems thinking and its many benefits.
There's so much said and written about VUCA. Agility, Innovation, DIsruption, Flexibility, Adaptability et all...but very few people talk about the fundamentals of what it takes to create a VUCA-ready, Agile Organization. Check out this overview which was presented at a Webinar for University at Buffalo Alumni Association
Slides for "Intro to Systems Thinking" workshop. Session details and resources available here: http://pwoessner.wikispaces.com/Introduction+to+Systems+Thinking
Cynefin - A Framework for Leaders in an Ever-Changing WorldIlio Krumins-Beens
Cynefin is a sense-making framework developed by David Snowden and others, which is currently maintained by Cognitive Edge (http://cognitive-edge.com/). I believe the framework can be extremely helpful to leaders cope with ever changing dynamics in their organization, as their default leadership style will not work best in all situations.
This presentation is one I use to explain Cynefin to others, but it is largely based on the work of others.
I leverage the following resources:
Snowden, David J. and Mary E. Boone, A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, Harvard Business Review, November 2007
Snowden, David Introduction to the Cynefin Framwork (:08 video) Cognitive Edge Website, Oct 29, 2011
Snowden, David It's Not Good Enough to be Right (1:02 video) LKCE12
Snowden, David Keynote of XP 2012 (Part 1 (:38), Part 2 (:40)) May 2012
Snowden, David Practice without sound theory will not scale (1:08 video presentation)
Kurtz, C.F., and D. J. Snowden, The New Dynamics of Strategy: Sense-Making in a Complex and Complicated World, IBM Systems Journal, Vol 42, No 3., 2003
Cognitive Edge Blog on Cynefin
Ballestrin, Kim. Applying Cynefin and Agile LAST Conference, July 27, 2012 (Deck and Video)
Haight, Cameron. Leverage the Cynefin Framework to Improve IT Operations and Decision Making, Gartner: 2012
Perline, Joseph. On Understanding Software Agility— A Social Complexity Point Of View, E:CO Issue Vol. 13 Nos. 1-2 2011
Neis, Pierre How Cynefin Model Improves Lean Implementation, Slideshare Oct 21, 2012
Slides of the 'deep' talk presented @ Agile O'Day 2017 #agileoday on the topic of "Business Agility" - Business agility is the "ability of a business system to rapidly respond to change by adapting its initial stable configuration”
How does an agile software development team choose its way of working, and do so in a context sensitive manner?
This was presented at the Toronto Agile Conference on October 30, 2018.
Systems thinking is perhaps one of the most critical tools in handling the complexity in coping challenges we are facing now and in the coming decades. This is a brief introduction to the basic concepts in System Thinking. It is defined and organized in a way that can provide those basics for every audience. I hope you find it helpful!
Building upon well established Scrum, XP, and lean software development methods, agile scaling frameworks such as Dean Leffingwell's Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe) and Scott Ambler's Disciplined Agile Delivery (DAD) address large, complex software delivery initiatives through their full delivery lifecycle from project initiation to production. These frameworks have received significant interest in both federal government and private industries, recognizing the need for continued team-based iterative and incremental adaptive approaches to software development, balanced with scaling processes and factors at the Program and Portfolio levels and organizational governance models and guidance for large enterprise engagements. This session will provide a brief overview of these two agile scaling models, address the benefits of what both are trying to accomplish, and compare and contrast specific similarities and differences.
What changes are needed in management and leadership to move towards the new lean culture of creative and knowledge work?
My presentation from Agile Finland's Modern Agile Breakfast.
If you work in Scrum environment or you’re just a team member who is trying to guide a conversation – then these interactive facilitation techniques are for you. In this session focus will be on games which you could use in virtual environment.
What are the Agile Metrics That Matter Most? Are they at the team-level? project/project? What about the people-side of agile (the "soft stuff"). What are common pitfalls to avoid? We categorize agile metrics into those about Value, Flow, Quality & Culture, and identify the most frequently used (and misused) in each of those areas.
Explains the 3 main phases of Agile Transformation identified by the DACH30 exchange group. Contains a definition of the phases of an agile transformation and some glimpses on the education program.
An explanation of Agile and how it relates to frameworks like Scrum.
What is Agile: https://agile-mercurial.com/2019/01/28/what-is-agile-1-minute-explanation-video/
Blog: https://agile-mercurial.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPM82of2YuqIR1SgLGHa1eg
Twitter: https://twitter.com/agile_mercurial
Tumblr: https://agilemercurial.tumblr.com/
The world as we know it is growing more complex. As we automate away those things that can be easily repeated, we leave ourselves with ever more challenging work. The way we've worked in the past won't necessarily work for today's problems¦ or will it? Join Diane and Doc as they explore dimensions of complexity in software development and look at how teams and leaders might adjust their behaviors (and the software they create) based on the complexity of the problem at hand.
This hands-on, interactive workshop will provide a practical introduction to Cynefin (a sense-making framework for complexity) and show how it applies to the work we do every day as creators of software. You'll map your own work to Cynefin and learn about applicable management styles and optimal team interactions for each of the Cynefin contexts.
There's so much said and written about VUCA. Agility, Innovation, DIsruption, Flexibility, Adaptability et all...but very few people talk about the fundamentals of what it takes to create a VUCA-ready, Agile Organization. Check out this overview which was presented at a Webinar for University at Buffalo Alumni Association
Slides for "Intro to Systems Thinking" workshop. Session details and resources available here: http://pwoessner.wikispaces.com/Introduction+to+Systems+Thinking
Cynefin - A Framework for Leaders in an Ever-Changing WorldIlio Krumins-Beens
Cynefin is a sense-making framework developed by David Snowden and others, which is currently maintained by Cognitive Edge (http://cognitive-edge.com/). I believe the framework can be extremely helpful to leaders cope with ever changing dynamics in their organization, as their default leadership style will not work best in all situations.
This presentation is one I use to explain Cynefin to others, but it is largely based on the work of others.
I leverage the following resources:
Snowden, David J. and Mary E. Boone, A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, Harvard Business Review, November 2007
Snowden, David Introduction to the Cynefin Framwork (:08 video) Cognitive Edge Website, Oct 29, 2011
Snowden, David It's Not Good Enough to be Right (1:02 video) LKCE12
Snowden, David Keynote of XP 2012 (Part 1 (:38), Part 2 (:40)) May 2012
Snowden, David Practice without sound theory will not scale (1:08 video presentation)
Kurtz, C.F., and D. J. Snowden, The New Dynamics of Strategy: Sense-Making in a Complex and Complicated World, IBM Systems Journal, Vol 42, No 3., 2003
Cognitive Edge Blog on Cynefin
Ballestrin, Kim. Applying Cynefin and Agile LAST Conference, July 27, 2012 (Deck and Video)
Haight, Cameron. Leverage the Cynefin Framework to Improve IT Operations and Decision Making, Gartner: 2012
Perline, Joseph. On Understanding Software Agility— A Social Complexity Point Of View, E:CO Issue Vol. 13 Nos. 1-2 2011
Neis, Pierre How Cynefin Model Improves Lean Implementation, Slideshare Oct 21, 2012
Slides of the 'deep' talk presented @ Agile O'Day 2017 #agileoday on the topic of "Business Agility" - Business agility is the "ability of a business system to rapidly respond to change by adapting its initial stable configuration”
How does an agile software development team choose its way of working, and do so in a context sensitive manner?
This was presented at the Toronto Agile Conference on October 30, 2018.
Systems thinking is perhaps one of the most critical tools in handling the complexity in coping challenges we are facing now and in the coming decades. This is a brief introduction to the basic concepts in System Thinking. It is defined and organized in a way that can provide those basics for every audience. I hope you find it helpful!
Building upon well established Scrum, XP, and lean software development methods, agile scaling frameworks such as Dean Leffingwell's Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe) and Scott Ambler's Disciplined Agile Delivery (DAD) address large, complex software delivery initiatives through their full delivery lifecycle from project initiation to production. These frameworks have received significant interest in both federal government and private industries, recognizing the need for continued team-based iterative and incremental adaptive approaches to software development, balanced with scaling processes and factors at the Program and Portfolio levels and organizational governance models and guidance for large enterprise engagements. This session will provide a brief overview of these two agile scaling models, address the benefits of what both are trying to accomplish, and compare and contrast specific similarities and differences.
What changes are needed in management and leadership to move towards the new lean culture of creative and knowledge work?
My presentation from Agile Finland's Modern Agile Breakfast.
If you work in Scrum environment or you’re just a team member who is trying to guide a conversation – then these interactive facilitation techniques are for you. In this session focus will be on games which you could use in virtual environment.
What are the Agile Metrics That Matter Most? Are they at the team-level? project/project? What about the people-side of agile (the "soft stuff"). What are common pitfalls to avoid? We categorize agile metrics into those about Value, Flow, Quality & Culture, and identify the most frequently used (and misused) in each of those areas.
Explains the 3 main phases of Agile Transformation identified by the DACH30 exchange group. Contains a definition of the phases of an agile transformation and some glimpses on the education program.
An explanation of Agile and how it relates to frameworks like Scrum.
What is Agile: https://agile-mercurial.com/2019/01/28/what-is-agile-1-minute-explanation-video/
Blog: https://agile-mercurial.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPM82of2YuqIR1SgLGHa1eg
Twitter: https://twitter.com/agile_mercurial
Tumblr: https://agilemercurial.tumblr.com/
The world as we know it is growing more complex. As we automate away those things that can be easily repeated, we leave ourselves with ever more challenging work. The way we've worked in the past won't necessarily work for today's problems¦ or will it? Join Diane and Doc as they explore dimensions of complexity in software development and look at how teams and leaders might adjust their behaviors (and the software they create) based on the complexity of the problem at hand.
This hands-on, interactive workshop will provide a practical introduction to Cynefin (a sense-making framework for complexity) and show how it applies to the work we do every day as creators of software. You'll map your own work to Cynefin and learn about applicable management styles and optimal team interactions for each of the Cynefin contexts.
Navigating Project Uncertainty, An Explorers Toolkit using CynefinKim_B
This presentation covers the tools that can help projects get started more quickly and an easy way to apply the Cyenfin framework to projects. There is also a blog post based on this presentation at this link https://www.lean.org/LeanPost/Posting.cfm?LeanPostId=444
Agile Metrics : Velocity is NOT the Goal - NDC Oslo 2014Doc Norton
Velocity is one of the most common metrics used-and one of the most commonly misused-on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction-the rate at which a team is delivering toward a product release. As with a vehicle en route to a particular destination, increasing the speed may appear to ensure a timely arrival. However, that assumption is dangerous because it ignores the risks with higher speeds. And while it’s easy to increase a vehicle’s speed, where exactly is the accelerator on a software team?
Michael “Doc" Norton walks us through the Hawthorne Effect and Goodhart’s Law to explain why setting goals for velocity can actually hurt a project's chances. Take a look at what can negatively impact velocity, ways to stabilize fluctuating velocity, and methods to improve velocity without the risks. Leave with a toolkit of additional metrics that, coupled with velocity, give a better view of the project's overall health.
At a recent ‘lunchtime talk’ session, , Eliat Aram, the Institute’s CEO attempted a second ‘bite’ into Complexity theory, this time introducing Staff and Guests to the ‘complex responsive processes of relating’ perspective developed by Prof. Stacey, Prof. Shaw and Prof. Griffin and its implications to intervention design and organisational development work.
As part of the highly successful lunchtime talk series, the contemporary Tavistock Institute of Human Relations (TIHR) food-for-thought programme, Eliat Aram, the Institute’s CEO introduced staff and guests to some key concepts and philosophical underpinning of Complexity theory and its implications to understanding organisational praxis.
Although we have been using Agile mindset and processes tactically, when it comes to strategy and goal setting the waterfall command&control mindset is still the norm.
Most organizations are still using an annual, waterfall, top-down process to create a static set of goals that conflicts directly with Agile. The process is even called "cascading goals" - you can't get more waterfall than that.
Driving change via a feedback mechanism is a common pattern of self organised systems. It's commonly found in nature: any living being is a complex adaptive system and uses the same principles to adapt to its environment. Complexity Theory and Systems Theory are emerging scientific frameworks which have incredible similarities with iterative methodologies. Join this session to see a different perspective on iterative methodologies and understand why they work!
Engineering might be defined as the judicial application of science and scientific knowledge, but with the rider that unlike science and scientific studies, engineering always has to deliver a solution and a result. There are therefore aspects of engineering that stretch and challenge, the accepted, wisdom and knowledge of science. To purists, this might appear outrageous, but it is no more so than the works of Erwin Schrödinger or Leonhard Euler et al
In this lecture we examine many of the established engineering basics whilst being mindful that most of our education, techniques, and working solutions are founded on the assumption of well behave linear environments. As our entire universe, and everything in it, is inherently complex and non-linear, we have to salute the powers of approximation and iteration for our many engineering success to date. However, we are increasingly being challenged by complexities of the fundamental non-linear nature of the problems confronting us. ( E.G. Politics, Conflict, Global Warming, Sustainability, Medicine, Fusion Power, Logistics, Networks, Depletion of Resources, Accelerating Tech Driven Change +++)
We start by tracing history from the foundations up to the present day, including modern analytical nomenclature and techniques, system reliability, resilience and costs, we highlight the the basic human limitations that necessitate multi-disciplinary teams that include AI and vast computing power.
The overall treatment includes our analogue past, digital today, and analogue/digital hybrid future of computing, robots, networks and systems of all kinds. It also includes animations, movies and sound files to demonstrate the realities of modern system design including the inherent complexities. To further highlight, and exemplify this projected future, we examine a real engineering project concerned with acoustic sniper spotting under battlefield conditions and extreme noise. Here a combination of digital modelling sees the use of analogue acoustic filter arrays, analogue signal amplification, and digital signal processing doubling the range of sniper detection and location.
Lessons Learnt Managing Software Projects that are also applicable in real life. These are also applicable for Program Management and Portfolio Management. More importantly these lessons are connected and also applicable to 'Real' life
System thinking and the arizona homeless problem by Bob BergmanEric Kingsbury, MBA
Bob Bergman on Systems Thinking and Chronic Social Problems
Understand why good intentions are not enough to solve chronic social problems and the application of systems thinking to understanding why homelessness persists in Maricopa County. While there will be a brief discussion on the complexity of social problems (Wicked Problems), this will not be a discussion on complexity theory, adaptive complex systems, autopoiesis, bifurcations, co-evolution, chaos and edge of chaos, emerging properties,far-from-equilibrium-states, power-law, self-organized criticality, sensitivity to initial conditions, etc. Rather this will be a discussion on the usefulness of applying systems thinking to chronic social and structural problems, with the hope that further “futures discussions” can take a similar approach.
Bob Bergman is President at Southwest Management Technology, LLC. He has 45 years of experience in management, technology, strategic planning, and systems thinking. Bob has been a WFS member for many years as well.
Agile Traps: Common practices that wreck teams (Lesbians Who Tech 2020)Elizabeth Ayer
One of the biggest pitfalls that Agile teams in tech fall into is homogeneity, and the structures themselves are partly to blame. Many teams struggle to find, include, and retain people from different backgrounds. This is not only bad for society but also bad for business. Using case studies of government technology teams, this talk looks at the practical challenges and opportunities of broadening the perspectives represented on your team. We'll put some standard Scrum facilitation techniques under the inclusivity lens and demonstrate tools for analyzing your own practices. Get past the excuses and take practical next steps, exploring healthy and unhealthy ways to approach diversity, equity and inclusion.
Everything you should have known about Systems before you started the course!
The universe, planet earth, life forms, us, and everything we create and use constitute systems that are capable of transforming energy, matter and information at some micro and/or macro level. As such they span the basic, simple, linear and well behaved, through to the complicated, complex, non-linear and unpredictable. Moreover, they encompass the cosmological, geological, biological, mechanical, electrical, electronic, atomic and life systems + the more abstract economics, networking and sociology et al.
“All known and studied systems obey the basic laws of physics and to one degree or another enjoy an underlying number of principles that lend them to a reasonably common set of analytic, modelling and mathematical techniques”
Sadly, it appears to be badly taught and understood at an early stage in the education process and students often arrive at college and university with a partial or confused picture of the basic principles. This ‘Systems’ tutorial is therefore designed to correct any earlier failings and misconceptions, and to furnish students with the basic thinking and tools necessary for the wider lecture and research programs at The University of Suffolk.
An intelligent agent perceives its environment via sensors and acts upon that environment with its effectors.
A discrete agent receives percepts one at a time, and maps this percept sequence to a sequence of discrete actions.
Properties
Autonomous
Reactive to the environment
Pro-active (goal-directed)
Interacts with other agents
via the environment
Humans
Sensors: Eyes (vision), ears (hearing), skin (touch), tongue (gustation), nose (olfaction), neuromuscular system (proprioception)
Percepts:
At the lowest level – electrical signals from these sensors
After preprocessing – objects in the visual field (location, textures, colors, …), auditory streams (pitch, loudness, direction), …
Effectors: limbs, digits, eyes, tongue, …
Actions: lift a finger, turn left, walk, run, carry an object, …
The Point: percepts and actions need to be carefully defined, possibly at different levels of abstraction
The Complexity of Data: Computer Simulation and “Everyday” Social ScienceEdmund Chattoe-Brown
Although the existence of various forms of complexity in social systems is now widely recognised, this approach to explanation faces two major challenges that turn out to be intimately connected. The first is the existing conflict in social science between “micro” and “macro” styles of social explanation. The second is the relationship of complexity to the kind of data routinely collected in social science. In order to be accepted, complexity approaches need simultaneously to dodge the first conflict while making much better use of existing forms of data.
The first part of the talk will provide an introduction to the simulation approach and a discussion of various concepts in complexity with reference to simulation as a distinctive theory-building tool and methodology. The second part of the talk will develop these ideas in more depth using simulations by the author as case studies.
Similar to Cynefin and Complexity: A Gentle Introduction (20)
Generating a custom Ruby SDK for your web service or Rails API using Smithyg2nightmarescribd
Have you ever wanted a Ruby client API to communicate with your web service? Smithy is a protocol-agnostic language for defining services and SDKs. Smithy Ruby is an implementation of Smithy that generates a Ruby SDK using a Smithy model. In this talk, we will explore Smithy and Smithy Ruby to learn how to generate custom feature-rich SDKs that can communicate with any web service, such as a Rails JSON API.
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
Transcript: Selling digital books in 2024: Insights from industry leaders - T...BookNet Canada
The publishing industry has been selling digital audiobooks and ebooks for over a decade and has found its groove. What’s changed? What has stayed the same? Where do we go from here? Join a group of leading sales peers from across the industry for a conversation about the lessons learned since the popularization of digital books, best practices, digital book supply chain management, and more.
Link to video recording: https://bnctechforum.ca/sessions/selling-digital-books-in-2024-insights-from-industry-leaders/
Presented by BookNet Canada on May 28, 2024, with support from the Department of Canadian Heritage.
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 3DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 3. In this session, we will cover desktop automation along with UI automation.
Topics covered:
UI automation Introduction,
UI automation Sample
Desktop automation flow
Pradeep Chinnala, Senior Consultant Automation Developer @WonderBotz and UiPath MVP
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
4. 3 Vignettes
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
Our brains instantly construct a story based on our perception of the context.
1. We see car arrive - followed by Mr. Skinhead turning and scampering away.
2. We see Mr. Skinhead engaging Mr. Trenchcoat man.
3. We see Mr. Skinhead saving Mr. Trenchcoat man from falling bricks.
Is Mr. Skinhead a criminal or an undercover cop?
Is Mr. Trenchcoat man a banker or a drug dealer?
Who is in that car?
6. First-fit Pattern Matching
We often find ourselves responding to events
without fully considering the context.
Once we categorize something, it is cognitively
very difficult to change your mind about it.
– we categorize!
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
For example, as a PM or an executive, you may anchor the context in assuming you need for a detailed project plan for all work
Categorizing allows us to make quick decisions based on limited information
7. Sense & Respond
How can we make sense of a situation such that we can
respond intelligently given incomplete information?
(whenever a decision is required, we are ALWAYS limited by incomplete information)
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
Given the fact that we are very prone to categorizing everything…
8. Context is Everything
There are no universal solutions, but there
are contextual solutions
There are different ways of doing things based
on the context you are operating in
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
9. Making Sense of the Problem
How can we more accurately sense the context we are
operating in so that we might better act?
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
11. What is Order?
or·der
/ˈôrdər/
noun
1. the arrangement or disposition of people or things in relation
to each other according to a particular sequence or pattern.
How does order happen?
Must we create order, or can we allow order to emerge?
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
12. Emergent vs Directed
Emergent Order
Relationships between
cause and effect are
unknown, unpredictable or
not perceivable
Relationships between
cause and effect are
well established or
discoverable through analysis
Order emerges out of initial starting conditions
Directed Order
Order is directed or imposed
For the purposes of Cynefin, we’ll rename
Directed Order to Ordered
and
Emergent Order to Un-ordered
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
13. Characteristics of Order
Un-ordered
Relationships between cause and effect are unknown,
unpredictable or not perceivable
Relationships between cause and effect are well
established or discoverable through analysis
Order emerges out of the initial starting conditions
Ordered
Order is directed or imposed
Higher degree of Certainty
(highly predictable)
Lower degree of Certainty
(less predictable)
CausalDispositional
Linear relationships
(output is directly proportional to the input)
Non-linear relationships
(output NOT directly proportional to the input)
Exploitation - Commoditization
(Repeatability)
Exploration - Innovation
(Novelty)
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
14. Managing Differently
Un-ordered
Relationships between cause and effect are unknown,
unpredictable or not perceivable
Relationships between cause and effect are well
established or discoverable through analysis
Things Grow
Ordered
Things are Made
Define Ideal Future State
(close the gap)
Describe the Present
(influence the direction of change)
Manage the Plan
(set rules, scope - implementation)
Manage the Constraints
(set attractors, boundaries - experimentation)
Monitor for Adherence
(governance)
Monitor for Emergence
(patterns, weak signals)
Architect the Solution
(engineer)
Amplify / Dampen Attractors*
(feedback loops)
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
* An attractor is a state or set of states toward which a system tends to evolve. System values that get close enough to the attractor remain close.
15. Triaging
Un-ordered
Relationships between cause and effect are unknown,
unpredictable or not perceivable
Relationships between cause and effect are well
established or discoverable through analysis
Are you looking for a
repeatable solution?
Are you looking for a
novel solution?
The realm of learning
Ordered
The realm of planning
Nobody in the company, the industry,
or the world has solved this type of
problem in the past.
You, your team, the company or a
specialized group has solved this type of
problem in the past.
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
17. 3 Types of Systems
• A system is any network with coherence
• An agent is anything which acts on or within the system
• In nature, there are 3 types of systems:*
• Ordered Systems: the system tightly constrains agent behavior.
• Complex Systems: the system loosely constrains agent behavior.
The system and agents (collectively) modify each others behaviors.
• Chaotic Systems: the system imposes little or no constraints on agents.
Agents act independently of each other, behavior appears random.
* Constraints-based definition
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
18. Let’s Map These Systems
Ordered
(Directed Order)
Un-ordered
(Emergent Order)
• Complex
• Chaotic
• Ordered Systems• Complicated domain
Cynefin breaks Ordered Systems into 2 domains:
Complicated & Obvious, based on peoples
perception of the relationship between cause and
effect.
• Obvious domain
• Dis-order domain
Systems
Systems
domain
domain
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
19. Chaotic
domain
Complicated
domain
Complex
domain
Obvious
domain
Un-ordered
Ordered
Cause-Effect relationship perceivable only in
retrospect. Not Repeatable (except by accident)
Cause-Effect relationship discoverable via analysis
and/or expert knowledge.
Cause-Effect relationship is not perceivable
at a systems level.
Cause-Effect relationship is obvious to all
Perceivable, Predictable & Repeatable.
Introducing the Cynefin Domains
The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is represented as
a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising from complacency.
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
20. Notes on Sense-making
Cynefin is a Sense-making framework, it is not a Categorization Schema
It’s all about the dynamic movement between domains
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
22. Flow and Self Organization
• Autonomy – each “actor” is making
individual decisions
• Locality – behavior dependent on
decisions of immediate neighbors
• Distributed Cognition – no centralized
control
• Dynamic Interactions – via continuous
“micro-decisions”
• Simple “rules” – Match speed, avoid
collision, fly to the center of the flock
• Agents are generally ignorant of the
behavior of the system as a whole
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
23. Agents
An agent is anything which
acts on or within the system.
Examples of agents might be
molecules, ants, memes,
myths, identities, etc. *
Relationships between the
agents are more important
than the agents themselves.
Agents are autonomous and
self-organize.
* People are rarely agents. They are complex systems in and of themselves.
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
24. Agents Interact with Agents
Agents interact with
each other locally and
modify each others
behaviors via their
mutual interactions.
Proximity and
connectivity are key.
Simple “rules” act to
both constrain and
enable behavior.
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
25. System and Agents Interact
Agents and the System
also interact with each
other. Each may also
modify the behavior of
the other.
They co-evolve together.
Order emerges, it is not
imposed.
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
26. Complex Adaptive Behavior
New
Patterns
Emerge
Patterns
Modify
Behavior
(+)(-)
As agents continually interact, patterns emerge.
Positive and negative
feedback loops develop…
…further modifying the
behavior of the agents.
These patterns modify the
behavior of the agents.
...which act to amplify or
dampen existing patterns…
Rinse, Repeat, Concurrently - billions and billions of times.
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
27. Systems are Hierarchical
These systems may also
act as agents in a larger
system. They are self-
similar and hierarchical.
That is, systems both
contain sub-systems and
are contained by larger
systems. They’re fractal.
At each level of
complexity, entirely new
properties appear.
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
28. Complexity in a Nutshell
• Systems are hierarchical – cells, organs, organisms, societies…
• Systems are dynamic – systems change in patterns over time
• Agents self-organize – There is no centralized control
• Order emerges – it is not imposed
• Multiple autonomous agents – interact with each other and the system
• Simple ”rules” (constraints) – produce complex interactions
• Systems and agents co-evolve
• Co-evolution is irreversible – There is only the current state*
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
* and its history – The present is informed by the past.
29. Designing a Complex System
Can such a system be designed or engineered?
“Not bloody likely.”
- Eliza Doolittle (Pygmalion)
That is, can a complex system be driven towards an Ideal Future State?
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
30. Why is This?
Complex systems are fundamentally different
• Small changes may produce massive impacts, or may do nothing at all
• You cannot know in advance which solution will work best because of
the dynamic nature of the network of interactions
• These systems evolve, there is no Ideal Future State to “achieve”
• These systems do not lend themselves to a reductionist approach
• There is only “fitness for purpose” within the “situated present”
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
Irony Alert – The present is generally more certain than the future
31. Working in Complex Systems…
…requires a shift in how we view our work at a systems level
• Monitor for emerging patterns, suppress the urge to categorize: Probe
• Identify patterns as they emerge (in real time)
• Seek opportunities that allow the system to move in a desirable direction
• Amplify / Dampen patterns rather than trying to drive system: Nudge
• Beneficial coherence can be amplified (within attractors)
• Negative coherence can be dampened by denying energy (resources)
• Manage the constraints rather than “the plan”: Bound
• Apply context sensitive constraints – the level of constraint is defined by the domain
• Manage via constant, small interactions - within boundaries
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
The only way to manage a complex adaptive system is by interacting with it
32. My Mayonnaise is Complex
“A jumbo jet is complicated, but a mayonnaise is complex.”
- Paul Cilliers (1956-2011)
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
33. Cynefin
“It infuriates me to be wrong
when I know I'm right.”
- Molière
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
The “right” solution in the wrong context
is the wrong solution.
34. Knowns, Gnomes and Unknowns
“As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. (obvious)
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not
know. (complicated)
But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know. “ (complex)
Donald Rumsfeld – (a known gnome)
February 12, 2002
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
35. Let’s Make Sense of This…
…using the Cynefin Framework
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
36. Chaotic
domain
Complicated
domain
Complex
domain
Obvious
domain
Un-ordered
Ordered
The Cynefin Domains
Cause-Effect relationship perceivable only in retrospect.
Not Repeatable (dispositional, not causal) Flux
Cause-Effect relationship separated by space & time.
Requires analysis and/or expert knowledge.
Cause-Effect relationship is not perceivable
at a systems level. Turbulent.
Cause-Effect relationship is obvious to all
Perceivable, Predictable & Repeatable. Stable
Retrospectively coherent causality
(Unknown unknowns)
Incoherent causality
(Unknowable unknowns)
Knowable causality
(Known unknowns)
Known causality
(Known knowns)
“Emergent practice” “Good practice”
“Novel practice” “Best practice”
37. Chaotic
ComplicatedComplex
Obvious
Un-ordered
Ordered
Responding in Cynefin Domains
Complexity Based Approach
Create multiple, safe-to-fail interventions
(identify patterns, gain insights)
Manage in the present.
Focus on the evolutionary potential of the present
Systems Thinking Approach
Not Self-evident (test & refine hypothesis)
Engineering (reductive)
Trust the Experts
Focus on goals
Crisis Management Approach
(stability-focused intervention, impose order)
Urgent Rapid-Response
Define the constraint – while you still can
Standard Operating Procedures
Self-evident (automation, rules)
Trust the Manual
Focus on efficiency
Sense – Analyze – Respond
Act – Sense – Respond Sense – Categorize – Respond
Probe – Sense – Respond
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
40. Un-ordered
Ordered
Let’s Build a House!
Building
a House
Finding a Location
Construction
Medical Emergency Making Payments
Securing a Mortgage
Building a
House on Mars
You’re Fired!
Building a
Bird House
Building Shelter
(from a storm)
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
41. Conclusion
A complexity based approach asks the following:
• In the context of what is going on at the moment, what can we change?
• Out of what we can change, what and how can we monitor for the
impact of that change?
• Out of the things we can monitor for impact, where can we amplify
success or dampen failure?
#nyclean@JockoSelberg
What is going on at the moment?
“We evolve forward into a future state, which is more sustainable and
resilient, but which we could not have anticipated.”
- Dave Snowden
42. Thank You!
NYC Lean Kanban
MeetupSpecial Thanks to:
Dave Snowden
Jocko Selberg
@JockoSelberg
Jocko21@gmail.com
NYC Cynefin Group - Meetup
Editor's Notes
There are basically 3 micro-narrative stories.
We have no idea who these people are – but that doesn’t stop us from constructing a story.
1st story – who thought he was running away? Running towards something? Something else?
2nd Story – CONTEXT CHANGE - Who thought he was mugging trench-coat guy? Who thought he was helping? Something else?
Who is this skinhead? Who is trench-coat guy?
We don’t know, but that doesn’t stop us from constructing a story and setting a context for that story to live in - based on very limited information.
3rd Story – CONTEXT CHANGE – Finally, we see he was helping trench-coat guy. Was he?
Skin head
Police officer
4th Story – CONTEXT CHANGE – These are actor. This was scripted. Director
The order we see around us is spontaneous, organic, emergent, rather than controlled, directed or managed.
“Complex systems have propensities and dispositions, but no linear material cause”
Linear: doubling one causes the other to double as well.
Non-linear relationship the output is NOT directly proportional to the input
a drug may be ineffective up until a certain threshold and then become effective - or, a drug may become progressively more helpful over a certain range, but then may become harmful
Causal –
Dispositional – has propensities, we can understand which direction a system might or might not evolve –but we can never have certainty
an attractor is a state or set of states toward which a system tends to evolve, given a wide variety of starting conditions. System values that get close enough to the attractor values remain close even if slightly disturbed.
Manage emergence (Snowden) – “Manage the Boundaries conditions, manage the probes, manage the emergence of beneficial coherence” - Emergence of beneficial coherence, within boundaries, within attractors.
Weak signal detection – pay attention to the outliers – watch for emerging patterns
Understanding is emergent. We don't start out knowing the solution. ~ @ourfounder #abe15
A system is any network (or set of elements with relationships) with coherence (self-consistency / consistent with known fact)
The fifth domain is Disorder, which is the state of not knowing what type of causality exists, in which state people will revert to their own comfort zone in making a decision.
If you find yourself (or your boss) attempting to impose order on an un-ordered system (or problem) you are probably in the Disordered domain. Common example are detailed project plans in Product Development.
Sense making is the way that people choose between multiple possible explanations in order to act or respond to the world around them. (the way we interpret the world and the way we act in it.)
The methods and tools we currently have for decision-making (management systems) have evolved for ordered systems, not complex systems
Boid’s algorithm
Alicia Juarrero who famously said that “meaning exists in the gaps between things not the things themselves”
Agent’s are Not People – Soylent Green is People – Don Adams
Proximity and connectivity have high impact: which agents are interacting with which agents and why (attractors) is one of the ways we can manage in complexity
In Human Complex Systems, simple rules is a bit of an over-statement (we are not ants) which doesn’t take into account intentionality and multiple identities (we often behave illogically)
Continuous Interactions (parallelism)
If the initial starting conditions were even slightly different, the patterns would develop differently
Example might be crowd behavior – flow lines appear – Grand Central Station
“The whole is greater than the sum of the parts”.
Once a CAS has reached the state of being good enough, it will favor greater effectiveness over increased efficiency
There are multiple “right” ways of doing things
Shift - We manage the emergence of beneficial coherence, within attractors, within boundaries. The only things we can manage are the probes, the boundaries and amplification/dampening of emergent patterns.
―It is important at this stage to note that there is a difference between complex and complicated? An example of a complicated system is a Boeing 747. It‘s big, and it‘s difficult to understand - but you can take it apart if you‘ve got the drawings and you can put it back together again. A complex system is like mayonnaise. Once you‘ve put the ingredients together, you can never get it back and you can never guarantee the same results.
Complicated systems can be given exact descriptions whereas the complexity of a complex system always eludes such precision. This distinction is neatly summed up by his often quoted remark “a jumbo jet is complicated but a mayonnaise is complex.”
You can be right in one context, and terribly wrong in another
Speaking of the right solution used in the wrong context -
Behold: Rumsfeld
Complex – not fore-seeable, but is dispositional
Enabling Constraints - constraints modified by behavior.
(sufficient constraint such that we have control, but not so much that you don’t have variation within the system)
Cynefin can help us to understand when we might apply a complexity based approach, and when we might apply the more traditional “ordered” approach.
Each approach has validity, but only when applied within the proper context.