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Managing Fast-Evolving GenAI Technology Adoptions

The document discusses the rapid evolution of generative AI technology and the challenges associated with its adoption, highlighting high failure rates in IT and AI projects. It introduces the 'theory of cognitive chasms,' which examines the discrepancy between external technological advancements and internal organizational readiness. The conclusion emphasizes the need for a multistage scaling strategy and an understanding of cognitive mindsets to effectively bridge these gaps.

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Generative AI•
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MANAGING FAST-EVOLVING GENAI TECHNOLOGY ADOPTIONS Dr. TathagatVarma “Cognitive Chasms:A GroundedTheory of GenAI Adoption” PhD, Indian School of Business (ISB), Hyderabad
DISCLAIMER THESE ARE MY PERSONAL VIEWS BASED ON MY DOCTORAL RESEARCH.
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE… • Faster Introduction • Faster Adoption • Faster Obsolescence Source: The Pace ofTechnology Adoption is Speeding Up: Rita McGrath, HBR, Nov 25, 2013, https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up
COMPLEXITY IS GROWING EXPONENTIALLY… • Average number of apps in an enterprise: over 1,000+ (grew 25% since 2021). Approximately 31% of these are legacy! • 800 billion lines of COBOL code still in active production! • Approx one cyberattack every 39 seconds. 1,876 cyber attacks per organization per week, a 75% increase from 2023!
YES…EVEN AI AND GENAI! • 2350+ Models!?! • New models are released every 48hrs!!! • By 2025, it is estimated that some 750mn apps will use LLMs!
INNOVATION SPEED ⇏ BUSINESS SUCCESS! Scaling AI: Strategies for AI-Steady and AI-Accelerated Organizations, Gartner, Nov 4, 2024, https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/scaling-ai
HARD REALITIES!!! • IT failure rates continue to be very high ~70-85%, including Digital Transformation and now AI too! • 25% of mobile apps are abandoned after just one usage, 71% are uninstalled after 3 months, and 99.5% of Consumer apps fail! • AI projects failure rates: 80% (HBR), 80% RAND), 85%(Gartner), 90% (VentureBeat) • AI Startup Failure Rates: 85% will be out of business in 3 years (YC); 92% (AI4SP) – 38% had no market need and 54% operational challenges
IS AGILE REALLY / TRULY / ACTUALLY… Working? Dead? Relevant? Necessary? Sufficient? Enough?
LET’S UNDERSTAND THE BASICS FIRST…
TWO CYCLES OF CHANGE External Change Cycle • Driven by Technology • Influenced by Markets • Adopted by Customers Internal Change Cycle • Driven by Vision • Influenced by Strategy • Adopted by Employees
PACE OF CHANGE OVER TIME Pre-Industrial Revolution • No major advancements in technologies, i.e., linear pace • Matching methods of production (manual, animals, nature, basic science & tech) First Industrial Revolution (1760-1830) • External pace got faster • Internal methods were still evolving • However, lack of communication and faster transport slowed the spread of technologies Second Industrial Revolution (1870 – 1914) • External pace remained fast • However, mass production,modern management methods and work organization improved productivity Third Industrial Revolution (1950 – 2000s) • Digital technologies brought light-speed capabilities • Lean and Agile Methods provided execution agility Fourth Industrial Revolution (2010 -) • Furious pace of technological changes led by cognitive technologies such as AI • However, internal methods are not quite ready to leverage these new technologies
WHERE IS AI?
GENAI LOTS OF PROMISE… BUT ALSO LOTS OF HYPE! Source: Gartner, https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/hype-cycle-for-genai
INTRODUCING THE “THEORY OF COGNITIVE CHASMS” Based on my Doctoral Research, 2019-2024 Research Question:What are the antecedents, moderators and consequents of GenAI adoption? Interviews with senior AI and GenAI experts from leading firms The research led to “Cognitive Chasms:A GroundedTheory of GenAI Adoption”.
MULTISTAGE SCALING STRATEGY ©TATHAGAT VARMA, 2024
COGNITIVE CHASMS ©TATHAGAT VARMA, 2024
COGNITIVE MINDSETS ©TATHAGAT VARMA, 2024
THEORY OF COGNITIVE CHASMS ©TATHAGAT VARMA, 2024
Theory - of - Cognitive Chasms© Coming in 2025… Follow updates at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitivechasm
CONCLUSIONS Agility is the impedance match between the external and internal pace of change. Merely applying traditional agile thinking will likely lead to faster“successful market failures”! The field of AI, especially GenAI is fast-evolving. How so promising,it is also full of hype,uncertainties and risks. Field data confirms that the traditional approach of technology change management is being inadequate. The Theory of Cognitive Chasms offers a research- backed grounded theory. Start with identifying the desired outcomes.Adopt the Multistage Scaling Strategy to avoid falling into Cognitive Chasms. Recognize the critical importance of Cognitive Mindsets in bridging the Cognitive Chasms.