Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium). Firm dynamics and employment adjus...Eesti Pank
The document analyzes employment dynamics at multinational firms (MNFs) and domestic firms during the crisis. It finds that while both contributed to job losses, domestic firms primarily reduced employment through firm exits, cutting over 29,000 jobs. Meanwhile, MNFs reduced employment mainly through downsizing by incumbent firms, shedding over 36,000 jobs. The document examines whether MNFs exhibit greater employment volatility than domestic firms due to easier international reallocation and a "home bias" during difficult times.
Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium). Firm dynamics and employment adjus...Eesti Pank
The document analyzes employment dynamics at multinational firms (MNFs) and domestic firms during the crisis. It finds that while both contributed to job losses, domestic firms primarily reduced employment through firm exits, cutting over 29,000 jobs. Meanwhile, MNFs reduced employment mainly through downsizing by incumbent firms, shedding over 36,000 jobs. The document examines whether MNFs exhibit greater employment volatility than domestic firms due to easier international reallocation and a "home bias" during difficult times.
This document summarizes the key topics of the Estonian financial sector stability review for spring 2013. It finds that while tensions in financial markets have eased, risks remain from the weak euro area economy. Estonia's banking sector remains stable due to balanced economic growth, strong bank capitalization, and a decline in the loan to deposit ratio. However, the main risks to Estonian financial stability come from uncertainty in the external environment and European banks' vulnerability due to the poor euro area economy. Ongoing European reforms, conservative banking practices, and regional cooperation are important to maintain stability.
Ardo Hansson. Economic Adjustment in the Baltic countriesEesti Pank
The document compares economic adjustment in the Baltic countries to other countries during previous recessions and to other small euro-area countries during the 2007-2009 crisis. It finds that while the Baltic countries' adjustment was similar to patterns in emerging markets, the degree of volatility and changes in domestic demand and external vulnerabilities were unusually high compared to past recessions. However, fiscal and competitiveness indicators did not exhibit high volatility. Compared to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the Baltic countries experienced larger declines in GDP during the crisis but have seen a faster recovery, though unemployment remains higher than in the other countries.
This document summarizes the key points from the Financial Stability Review. It notes that while economic activity has reduced uncertainty in international markets, recovery has been slower in some eurozone countries due to high debt and weak banking sectors. A high household debt burden and rapidly rising real estate prices pose major risks to stability in Sweden and Norway. Estonian companies have not been affected by the economic slowdown, but risks remain from a weak eurozone economy and potential fall in Nordic real estate prices. Maintaining a 10% minimum capital requirement is important for the resilience of Estonia's banking sector.
Karsten Staehr. The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flow...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a presentation on the relationship between competitiveness and external capital flows in EU countries. It discusses the Euro Plus Pact, which assumes that weak competitiveness, as measured by increasing unit labor costs, leads to current account deficits. However, the presentation finds that empirical evidence does not support this relationship. Granger causality tests and VAR models instead indicate that increased capital inflows lead to a short-term real exchange rate appreciation and deterioration of competitiveness. The findings suggest the Euro Plus Pact has the causal relationship backwards and that relative wages are highly dependent on credit availability.
Eesti konkurentsivõime ülevaate tutvustus. Avalik loeng.Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga ökonomistid Natalja Viilmann ja Jaanika Meriküll tutvustavad Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime analüüs valmib kord aastas. 06.03.2014
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 10 December 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from December 10, 2014. It notes that global and euro area economic growth is slower than expected. Inflation in the euro area has fallen and interest rates remain low. While the Russian rouble has fallen against the euro, trade sanctions against Russia have not significantly harmed the Estonian economy. The forecast predicts that Estonian economic growth will pick up slowly, reaching its long-term sustainable rate by 2016, though the shrinking population means GDP will grow more slowly than GDP per capita. The general government budget is expected to remain in deficit through 2016.
9. oktoobril toimus Eesti Panga muuseumi pressiruumis infotund, kus keskpanga ökonomistid Natalja Viilmann ja Orsolya Soosaar andsid ülevaate Eesti tööturu arengust.
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Eesti Panga majanduskommentaar 12. detsembril 2013Eesti Pank
12.12.2013 pressikonverentsil tutvustavad Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengut ja keskpanga majandusprognoosi Eesti Panga president Ardo Hansson ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
This document summarizes the key topics of the Estonian financial sector stability review for spring 2013. It finds that while tensions in financial markets have eased, risks remain from the weak euro area economy. Estonia's banking sector remains stable due to balanced economic growth, strong bank capitalization, and a decline in the loan to deposit ratio. However, the main risks to Estonian financial stability come from uncertainty in the external environment and European banks' vulnerability due to the poor euro area economy. Ongoing European reforms, conservative banking practices, and regional cooperation are important to maintain stability.
Ardo Hansson. Economic Adjustment in the Baltic countriesEesti Pank
The document compares economic adjustment in the Baltic countries to other countries during previous recessions and to other small euro-area countries during the 2007-2009 crisis. It finds that while the Baltic countries' adjustment was similar to patterns in emerging markets, the degree of volatility and changes in domestic demand and external vulnerabilities were unusually high compared to past recessions. However, fiscal and competitiveness indicators did not exhibit high volatility. Compared to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the Baltic countries experienced larger declines in GDP during the crisis but have seen a faster recovery, though unemployment remains higher than in the other countries.
This document summarizes the key points from the Financial Stability Review. It notes that while economic activity has reduced uncertainty in international markets, recovery has been slower in some eurozone countries due to high debt and weak banking sectors. A high household debt burden and rapidly rising real estate prices pose major risks to stability in Sweden and Norway. Estonian companies have not been affected by the economic slowdown, but risks remain from a weak eurozone economy and potential fall in Nordic real estate prices. Maintaining a 10% minimum capital requirement is important for the resilience of Estonia's banking sector.
Karsten Staehr. The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flow...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a presentation on the relationship between competitiveness and external capital flows in EU countries. It discusses the Euro Plus Pact, which assumes that weak competitiveness, as measured by increasing unit labor costs, leads to current account deficits. However, the presentation finds that empirical evidence does not support this relationship. Granger causality tests and VAR models instead indicate that increased capital inflows lead to a short-term real exchange rate appreciation and deterioration of competitiveness. The findings suggest the Euro Plus Pact has the causal relationship backwards and that relative wages are highly dependent on credit availability.
Eesti konkurentsivõime ülevaate tutvustus. Avalik loeng.Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga ökonomistid Natalja Viilmann ja Jaanika Meriküll tutvustavad Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime analüüs valmib kord aastas. 06.03.2014
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 10 December 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from December 10, 2014. It notes that global and euro area economic growth is slower than expected. Inflation in the euro area has fallen and interest rates remain low. While the Russian rouble has fallen against the euro, trade sanctions against Russia have not significantly harmed the Estonian economy. The forecast predicts that Estonian economic growth will pick up slowly, reaching its long-term sustainable rate by 2016, though the shrinking population means GDP will grow more slowly than GDP per capita. The general government budget is expected to remain in deficit through 2016.
9. oktoobril toimus Eesti Panga muuseumi pressiruumis infotund, kus keskpanga ökonomistid Natalja Viilmann ja Orsolya Soosaar andsid ülevaate Eesti tööturu arengust.
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Eesti Panga majanduskommentaar 12. detsembril 2013Eesti Pank
12.12.2013 pressikonverentsil tutvustavad Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengut ja keskpanga majandusprognoosi Eesti Panga president Ardo Hansson ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustasid kõigile majandushuvilistele äsja valminud Eesti finantssektori ülevaadet.
Karsten Staehr. Macroeconomic News and Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads before...Eesti Pank
1. The document analyzes how the effect of macroeconomic news on Italian sovereign interest rate spreads changed before and during the ECB's quantitative easing program from 2014-2022.
2. It finds that macroeconomic news had a significant effect on spreads before QE, with a coefficient of around -4, whereas the effect during QE was near zero, with the difference being statistically significant.
3. The results were robust to different specifications and definitions of news shocks. This suggests that QE helped insulate sovereign bond spreads from the impact of macroeconomic news by removing tail risks and "killing normal market reactions to news."
Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaade. Veebruar 2023Eesti Pank
22.02.2023 Eesti Panga ökonomistid Taavi Raudsaar ja Mari Tamm tutvustasid äsja valminud Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaadet ehk millised on Eesti majapidamiste ja ettevõtete rahastamisvõimalused.
The Sufficiency of Debt Relief as a Panacea to Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sub-S...Eesti Pank
The thesis analyzes the efficacy of debt relief as a solution to sovereign debt crises in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia as case studies. It conducts debt sustainability analyses under various scenarios of partial or full debt reduction, cancellation, and standstills. Structural impulse response analyses show how macroeconomic factors like growth, interest rates, and exchange rates impact debt levels over time. The results suggest that debt relief can reduce debt burdens but economic reforms are also needed for long-term sustainability. Limitations include low frequency data and lower assumed interest rates.
Luck and skill in the performance of global equity funds in Central and Easte...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study examining the performance of actively managed global equity funds in Central and Eastern Europe between 2005-2019. The study uses a bootstrap methodology to separate fund manager skill from luck. Key findings include:
- Approximately 5% of funds showed skill in outperforming their benchmarks gross of fees, with one fund in particular outperforming factor returns net and gross of fees.
- Most funds that underperformed did so due to lack of skill rather than bad luck.
- Fees were too high relative to the abnormal performance added by many mutual funds.
- While some fund managers possessed skill, it was generally not enough to cover their fees, suggesting fees may be too high or competition
The document summarizes a study examining how Lithuanian food manufacturing firms adjusted to trade sanctions imposed by Russia in 2014 that banned many agricultural imports from the EU.
The main adjustments included:
- Reducing part-time employment as the most flexible margin of adjustment. Larger reductions occurred for firms more exposed to the Russian market.
- Increasing exports to other countries to compensate for lost Russian exports. More exposed firms increased other exports more.
- Decreasing investment and full-time employment for more exposed firms, though full-time employment adjustments took longer.
A conceptual framework is presented predicting this sequence of adjustments, with part-time labor adjusting first due to lower costs, followed by exports, investment,
The document provides an economic forecast for Estonia from 2022-2025. It finds that high inflation and energy prices are hurting the global and European economies. Inflation in Estonia is projected to remain high in 2023 before slowly falling in 2024-2025. Interest rates are also expected to continue rising to curb inflation. Fiscal policy measures risk exacerbating inflation. Overall the Estonian economy is forecast to recover by late 2023 but high costs and uncertainty will continue weighing on growth.
Fabio Canovaand Evi Pappa. Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role...Eesti Pank
Neljapäeval, 20. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus rahvusvaheliselt tunnustatud majandusteadlane Fabio Canova tutvustas koos Evi Pappaga valminud uurimustööd „Kulukad looduskatastroofid, energiatarbimine ning eelarvepoliitika“ (Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role of fiscal policy).
Romain Duval. IMF Regional Economic Outlook for EuropeEesti Pank
31. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi esindaja Romain A. Duval tutvustas IMFi Euroopa osakonnas vastvalminud regionaalset majandusväljavaadet.
Pressikonverents Eesti Pangas, kus keskpanga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustavad ülevaadet, mis analüüsib suuremaid riske Eesti finantssektoris.
Pressikonverentsil saab teada:
kuidas majanduse jahenemine, kiire hinnakasv ja intresside tõus mõjutavad inimeste ja ettevõtete võimet laene tagasi maksta
milline mõju saab majanduse jahenemisel olema uute laenude andmisel ettevõtetele ja inimestele
kuidas mõjutavad võlakirjaturgudel toimuvad muutused Eesti pangandussektori rahastamist
milliseid samme tuleb keskpanga hinnangul astuda finantssektori tugevuse kindlustamiseks.
Madis Müller. Eesti majanduse väljavaade ja euroala rahapoliitika
1. Eesti majanduse väljavaade ja
euroala rahapoliitika
Madis Müller
Eesti Pank
1. oktoober 2012
Eesti majandusdiplomaatide seminaril
Välisministeeriumis
2. Euroala ei ole kriisieelset majandusmahu kõrgtaset
veel saavutanud
SKP püsihindades (2005=100)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1
Eesti Euroala UK
USA Kriisieelne tipp: Eesti Kriisieelne tipp: Euroala
Kriisieelne tipp: UK Kriisieelne tipp: USA
Allikas: Eurostat
3. Globaalne majanduskasv on taas aeglustunud
globaalne majanduskasv arenenud industriaalmaad
• Erinevates riikides on
euroala arenevad riigid
majanduse areng väga 10
ebaühtlane
8
• Euroala majandus on 6
2012. a languses
4
• Kiiret paranemist ei ole
2
oodata
0
• Majanduskasvu riskid on
-2
pigem allapoole
-4
-6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Allikas: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, juuli 2012
3
4. Toodangu ootused on Rootsis kõrgemad
kui Soomes, ehkki on viimastel kuudel alanenud
Tööstussektori 3-kuu ootused
60
50 Soome Rootsi
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
juuli.03
jaan.04
juuli.04
jaan.05
juuli.05
jaan.06
juuli.06
jaan.07
juuli.07
jaan.08
juuli.08
jaan.09
juuli.09
jaan.10
juuli.10
jaan.11
juuli.11
jaan.12
juuli.12
4
5. 5
juuni.12
dets.11
juuni.11
dets.10
juuni.10
dets.09
juuni.09
dets.08
juuni.08
Eksport (% , a/a)
dets.07
Võlakriis on siiski mõjutanud ka meie ida- ja
juuni.07
dets.06
juuni.06
dets.05
juuni.05
dets.04
juuni.04
Venemaa
Leedu
dets.03
Läti
lõunanaabreid
juuni.03
dets.02
juuni.02
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
6. Ebakindlus euroala majandusarengu suhtes on
tavatult suur; lähinaabrite areng stabiilsem
• Ebakindlus välismajanduses on erakordselt suur
– Mitmed majandusnäitajad on tundlikud väikestegi uudiste suhtes
• Euroala majandus ei ole ikka veel tugevat kasvupinda leidnud
– Võlakriis on osutunud visamaks, selle lahendamine on keerukas ja
aeganõudev
– Täiendavate Euroopa Keskpanga erakorraliste meetmete rakendamisel on
selles tähtis roll
– Inflatsiooni riskid on tasakaalus
• Seevastu lähinaabritele (Soome, Rootsi, Läti, Leedu, Venemaa) prognoositakse
selleks ja järgmiseks aastaks majanduskasvu jätkumist
• Eesti Panga juunikuise prognoosi põhistsenaarium tugineb eeldusele, et euroala
valitsused astuvad piisavaid samme selleks, et võlakriis ei hoogustuks
6
7. Eesti majandus on kriisijärgselt kasvanud euroala
keskmisest oluliselt kiiremini
Viimasel ajal on kasv toetunud suures osas sisenõudlusele
SKP kasv a/a, komponentide lõikes (%)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Eratarbimiskulutused Valitsemissektori lõpptarbimiskulutused
KTKTI lõpptarbimiskulutused Kapitali kogumahutus põhivarasse
Varude muutus Netoeksport
SKP
Allikas: Statistikaamet
9. Välisnõudlus soosib Eesti majanduskasvu varasemast
vähem, kuid turud eeldavad madala intressimäära
püsimist
3 kuu EURIBOR
Eesti välisnõudluse kasv
15% 5,0%
4,5%
10%
4,0%
5% 3,5%
3,0%
0% 2,5%
2,0%
-5%
1,5%
1,0%
-10%
0,5%
-15% 0,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-20% Allikas: EKP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kevadprognoos 2012 Sügisprognoos 2011
9
10. Eesti kaubandussidemed probleemsete euroala
riikidega on nõrgad
Väliskaubanduspartnerite osakaalud Eesti ekspordis, 2011. aasta (%)
Hispaania
Poola
Itaalia
Hiina
Suurbritannia
Taani
Prantsusmaa
Holland
Norra
Nigeeria
Leedu
Saksamaa
Ameerika Ühendriigid
Läti
Venemaa
Soome
Rootsi
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Allikas: Satistikaamet
10
11. Eestis ollakse majanduse väljavaadete osas
euroalast optimistlikumad
Majandususaldusindeks
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Euroala Soome Rootsi Läti Leedu Eesti
Allikas: Euroopa Komisjon
12. Jaekaubanduse kasv on püsinud tugev,
ehitussektoris jätkub elavnemine
Tarbijate kindlustunne ja jaemüügi mahu muutus a/a
30% 20
20% 10
0
10%
-10
0%
-20
-10%
-30
-20% -40
-30% -50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Jaemüügi mahuindeksi aastakasv Tarbijate kindlustunne SA (ps)
Ehitusinvesteeringute ja ehitusmahu kasv a/a
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Investeeringud (ehitusinvest) püsivhinnas Ehitusmahuindeks
Allikas: Statistikaamet
13. Tööturu taastumine on olnud kiire,
tööpuuduse määr langeb jätkuvalt
680 25%
660
640 20%
620
600 15%
580
560 10%
540
520 5%
500
480 0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hõivatud, tuhat Töötuse määr
Allikas: Statistikaamet
14. Eesti inflatsioonitempo on Euroopa kiiremaid, kuid trend
aeglustuv
Inflatsioonis avalduvad energia varasema kallinemise järelmõjud
Panused ühtlustatud tarbijahinnaindeksi aastakasvu (%)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Toit Alusinflatsioon Energia ÜTHI
Allikas: statistikaamet
18. Euroopa Keskpanga rahapoliitilised meetmed:
tavapärased meetmed
Rahapoliitiliste meetmete lõppeesmärgiks on hinnastabiilsuse säilitamine:
euroalal defineeritud kui tarbijahindade inflatsioon keskpikal perioodil alla 2%,
kuid selle lähedal
Meetmed jagunevad tavapärasteks ja erakorralisteks meetmeteks
Tavapäraseks rahapoliitiliseks meetmeks on peamiselt muutused rahapoliitilistes
intressimäärades
Muutused rahapoliitilistes intressimäärades mõjutavad ettevõtete ja eraisikute
finantseerimistingimusi ja seeläbi kogunõudlust. Muutused kogunõudluses avaldavad
omakorda mõju inflatsioonile
Kui finantssektor toimib hästi, piisab inflatsioonieesmärgi saavutamiseks üksnes
tavapärastest meetmetest (ehk intressimäärade muutmisest)
19. Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogu on viimase aasta jooksul
intressimäärasid alandanud kolm korda
Rahapoliitiliste intresside vähendamised alates 2011. aasta IV kvartalist:
1) novembris 2011, 0,25 protsendipunkti võrra
2) detsembris 2011, 0,25 protsendipunkti võrra
3) juulis 2012, 0,25 protsendipunkti võrra
Allikas: Euroopa Keskpank
20. Euroopa Keskpanga rahapoliitilised meetmed:
erakorralised meetmed
Erakorralised rahapoliitilised meetmed on keskpanga sammud, mis on suunatud
sellele, et probleemid finantssektoris ei takistaks rahapoliitika mõju majandusele
Nendeks meetmeteks on näiteks: piiramatu mahuga rahapoliitilised oksjonid, väga
pikaajalised rahapoliitilised laenud, erasektori ja valitsuse võlakirjade ost
Kui finantssektor ei toimi hästi, ei piisa inflatsioonieesmärgi saavutamiseks üksnes
tavapärastest meetmetest ehk intressimäärade muutmine ei pruugi mõjutada
ettevõtete ja eraisikute finantseerimistingimusi ning seeläbi kogunõudlust ja
inflatsiooni
Erakorralised meetmed on olemuselt ajutised ja täiendavad tavapäraseid
meetmeid
23. Nende arengute tulemusena kasvas vajadus
lisameetmete (sh ka rahapoliitiliste meetmete)
järele
Septembri algul lepiti Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogus kokku uue meetme (ingl outright
monetary transactions, OMT; ee otsesed rahapoliitilised avaturutehingud)
rakendamine
OMT raames ollakse valmis teostama lühema tähtajaga riiklike võlakirjade oste
järelturul, et tagada rahapoliitika tõhus ülekanne
OMT ostude eelduseks on tingimuslikkus – tehingud viiakse läbi üksnes riikides, mis on
sõlminud Euroopa Finantsstabiilsuse Fondi (EFSF) või Euroopa Stabiilsusmehhanismi
(ESM) abiprogrammi, mille osaks on võimalikud EFSF/ESMi poolsed ostud riiklike
võlakirjade esmaturul
Võrreldes varasema väärtpaberite ostuprogrammiga (ingl securities market
programme, SMP) on peamiseks erisuseks selge tingimuslikkuse olemasolu ja
keskendumine lühema tähtajaga võlakirjade ostule
24. Kokkuvõte
• Väliskeskkonnaga seotud riskid on jätkuvalt aktuaalsed, kuid üleilmne
kasv siiski jätkub. See tähendab, et Eesti ettevõtetel peaks lähiajalgi olema
ekspordivõimalusi, kuid kiiret välisnõudluse kasvu ilmselt lähiaastatel oodata
ei ole. Ebaühtlane üleilmne taastumine loob võimaluse panustada toodetele,
riikidele ja partneritele, kes kosuvad keskmisest kiiremini
• Ekspordi kõrval hakkab majanduskasvu järjest rohkem toetama
sisenõudlus (taas on kosumas investeeringud ja tööhõive kasv on loonud
võimalused eratarbimise suurenemiseks)
• Hetkeolukord toetab investeeringuid. Varajasematel investoritel on mitu
eelist. Olulisemad on soodne intressitase ja tööpuudusest tingitud
värbamise võimalused
• Kuulumine euroalasse, madal riigivõla tase, ettevõtjasõbralik
maksukeskkond ja euroala keskmisest kiirem majanduskasv muudavad
Eesti majanduskeskkonna välisinvestoritele atraktiivseks
24