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EQ:  How are the  terms  of  probability  used correctly to describe an  event? Course 3 10-1 Probability
Warm Up Write each fraction in simplest form. 1. 2. 3. 4.   8 64 Course 3 10-1 Probability 16 20 12 36 39 195 4 5 1 3 1 8 1 5
Vocabulary experiment trial outcome sample space event probability impossible certain Insert Lesson Title Here Course 3 10-1 Probability
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Experiment Sample Space  flipping a coin  heads, tails  rolling a number cube  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  guessing the number of  whole numbers marbles in a jar Course 3 10-1 Probability
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Course 3 10-1 Probability
0    0.25  0.5  0.75  1 0%  25%  50%  75%  100% Never Happens about   Always happens half the time happens 0 1 Course 3 10-1 Probability 1 4 1 2 3 4
Give the probability for each outcome. Example #1 The basketball team has a 70% chance of winning. The probability of winning is  P (win) = 70% = 0.7. The probabilities must add to 1, so the probability of not winning is  P (lose) = 1 – 0.7 = 0.3, or 30%. Course 3 10-1 Probability
Give the probability for each outcome. Example #2 Course 3 10-1 Probability Three of the eight sections of the spinner are labeled 1, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 1 is  P (1) =  . 3 8
Give the probability for each outcome. With your partner – Example #3 Rolling a number cube. Course 3 10-1 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 1,  so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 1 is  P (1) =  . 1 6 Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 2,  so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 2 is  P (2) =  . 1 6
Check It Out: Example 1B Continued Course 3 10-1 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 3,  so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 3 is  P (3) =  . 1 6 One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 4,  so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 4 is  P (4) =  . 1 6 One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 5,  so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 5 is  P (5) =  . 1 6
Check It Out: Example 1B Continued Check   The probabilities of all the outcomes must add to 1.  Course 3 10-1 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 6,  so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 6 is  P (6) =  . 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 + + = 1 1 6 + 1 6 + 1 6 +
To find the probability of an event, add the probabilities of all the outcomes included in the event. Course 3 10-1 Probability
A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Example #4 What is the probability of guessing 3 or more correct? The event “three or more correct” consists of the outcomes 3, 4, and 5. P (3 or more correct) = 0.313 + 0.156 + 0.031 = 0.5, or 50%. Course 3 10-1 Probability
What is the probability of guessing fewer than 2 correct? The event “fewer than 2 correct” consists of the outcomes 0 and 1. P (fewer than 2 correct) = 0.031 + 0.156  = 0.187, or 18.7% Example #5 A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Course 3 10-1 Probability
What is the probability of passing the quiz (getting 4 or 5 correct) by guessing? The event “passing the quiz” consists of the outcomes 4 and 5. P (passing the quiz) = 0.156 + 0.031  = 0.187, or 18.7% Additional Example 2C: Finding Probabilities of Events A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Course 3 10-1 Probability
A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Check It Out: Example 2A What is the probability of guessing 2 or more correct? The event “two or more correct” consists of the outcomes 2, 3, 4, and 5. P (2 or more) = 0.313 + 0.313 + 0.156 + 0.031 = .813, or 81.3%. Course 3 10-1 Probability
Lesson Quiz Use the table to find the probability of each event. 1.  1 or 2 occurring  2.  3 not occurring 3.  2, 3, or 4 occurring 0.874 0.351 Insert Lesson Title Here 0.794 Course 3 10-1 Probability
Ticket Out: What is the difference between an outcome and an event? Course 3 10-1 Probability

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L3 10 1

  • 1. EQ: How are the terms of probability used correctly to describe an event? Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 2. Warm Up Write each fraction in simplest form. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8 64 Course 3 10-1 Probability 16 20 12 36 39 195 4 5 1 3 1 8 1 5
  • 3. Vocabulary experiment trial outcome sample space event probability impossible certain Insert Lesson Title Here Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Never Happens about Always happens half the time happens 0 1 Course 3 10-1 Probability 1 4 1 2 3 4
  • 7. Give the probability for each outcome. Example #1 The basketball team has a 70% chance of winning. The probability of winning is P (win) = 70% = 0.7. The probabilities must add to 1, so the probability of not winning is P (lose) = 1 – 0.7 = 0.3, or 30%. Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 8. Give the probability for each outcome. Example #2 Course 3 10-1 Probability Three of the eight sections of the spinner are labeled 1, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 1 is P (1) = . 3 8
  • 9. Give the probability for each outcome. With your partner – Example #3 Rolling a number cube. Course 3 10-1 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 1, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 1 is P (1) = . 1 6 Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 2, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 2 is P (2) = . 1 6
  • 10. Check It Out: Example 1B Continued Course 3 10-1 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 3, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 3 is P (3) = . 1 6 One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 4, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 4 is P (4) = . 1 6 One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 5, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 5 is P (5) = . 1 6
  • 11. Check It Out: Example 1B Continued Check The probabilities of all the outcomes must add to 1.  Course 3 10-1 Probability One of the six sides of a cube is labeled 6, so a reasonable estimate of the probability that the spinner will land on 6 is P (6) = . 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 + + = 1 1 6 + 1 6 + 1 6 +
  • 12. To find the probability of an event, add the probabilities of all the outcomes included in the event. Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 13. A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Example #4 What is the probability of guessing 3 or more correct? The event “three or more correct” consists of the outcomes 3, 4, and 5. P (3 or more correct) = 0.313 + 0.156 + 0.031 = 0.5, or 50%. Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 14. What is the probability of guessing fewer than 2 correct? The event “fewer than 2 correct” consists of the outcomes 0 and 1. P (fewer than 2 correct) = 0.031 + 0.156 = 0.187, or 18.7% Example #5 A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 15. What is the probability of passing the quiz (getting 4 or 5 correct) by guessing? The event “passing the quiz” consists of the outcomes 4 and 5. P (passing the quiz) = 0.156 + 0.031 = 0.187, or 18.7% Additional Example 2C: Finding Probabilities of Events A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 16. A quiz contains 5 true or false questions. Suppose you guess randomly on every question. The table below gives the probability of each score. Check It Out: Example 2A What is the probability of guessing 2 or more correct? The event “two or more correct” consists of the outcomes 2, 3, 4, and 5. P (2 or more) = 0.313 + 0.313 + 0.156 + 0.031 = .813, or 81.3%. Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 17. Lesson Quiz Use the table to find the probability of each event. 1. 1 or 2 occurring 2. 3 not occurring 3. 2, 3, or 4 occurring 0.874 0.351 Insert Lesson Title Here 0.794 Course 3 10-1 Probability
  • 18. Ticket Out: What is the difference between an outcome and an event? Course 3 10-1 Probability