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LECTURE L15
AUGMENTED AND VIRTUAL REALITY
Evolution of Computers
Mainframes Mini
Computers PC
Time-sharing
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mainframes Mini
Computers PC
Clients
Time-sharing
Servers
Laptops
Server

rooms
Smartphones
Tablets
Music
players
Consumer Products
Data
centers
Mobile
phones
Convergence
Divergence
DecentralisationCentralisation
Mobility
eReaders
Wearables
IoT
New Business Models
Nearables
Internet of Me
Flyables
Utilities
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mainframes Mini
Computers PC
Clients
Time-sharing
Servers
Laptops
Server

rooms
Smartphones
Tablets
Music
players
Consumer Products
Data
centers
Mobile
phones
Convergence
Divergence
DecentralisationCentralisation
Mobility
eReaders
Wearables
IoT
New Business Models
Nearables
Internet of Me
Flyables
Utilities
What next?
World fastest computer?
Tianhe-2 boasts a speed of 33.86 petaflops
one petaflop is one quadrillion floating-
point calculations per second
The Network is the Computer
The Internet cloud
More programs and data is stored on network
servers
The Personal Computer becomes one of the form
factors to access the network
Examples
Amazon API
Google Apps
Facework Platform API
Tom Watson was wrong – there 

is not room for five computers.

It’s only one
What about Moore’s Law?
Shift to multicore started in

2005 – new dimension
Move to cloud-core
What about Moore’s Law?
Amazon has over 2.24 million machines in 

some 87 data centers (2014 data)
$1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core 

cluster built on Amazon EC2 cloud
What about Moore’s Law?
Google used 16,000 computers to find cats

in YouTube videos
What about Moore’s Law?
Miniature Computers
Small devices that have computer power
Wireless capabilities
Dedicated devices
Enough computer power for limited functionality
Examples
RFID
UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles
Internet of things
Medical - nano robots
The Future of the PC
How long will the Hard Disk Drive last?
Solid state memory is getting bigger
Terabit Flash Memory
Computer architecture will change
More and more devices are

using Flash memory
Driving prices down
Tablets
Wearables, flyables, drivables, scannables…
What is the future of Personal Computers?
PC Evolution
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Hardware	era	
PC,	Mac
Software	OS	era	
Windows,	Office,	MacOS
Internet	
Hardware	Connects
IBM
Microsoft
Apple
2010
Software	web	era	
Web	2.0,	Social
2015
Internet	of	things
2020
Apple
Google
Smartphone
Wearable
Startups
Facebook
AmazonMicrosoft
Twitter
Consumer Devices
The computer and the
Internet
disappear
Future of PC
Cloud Computing and home Serves
Everything will be connected: computer, TV, Phone, etc.
Simpler specialised operating systems
Utility computing
Wireless
Ubiquitous network access
Computers will be smaller and integrated into things
New input methods
Better interfaces
Big Brian, Small Brain
Better friction of devices
Future of the Desktop Metaphor
Early Computers
Goal: Data processing
Read data, process,
write or print
Early Computers
Result:
Dramatic Increase in
productivity
Automation
Xerox Early GUIs
Goal: Emulate the
office environment
in a computer
Macintosh 1984
First commercial
GUI system
Macintosh 1984
Result:
More User Friendly
Graphics, fonts, WYSIWYG
Laserprinter
Windows 3.0
Business software
migrates to GUIs
Windows 95
First consumer targeted
OS
Windows 95
Result:
More people, connection

to the Internet
Ubuntu
Mac	OS	X	
Windows
More choices, less important
Android
Operating Systems Today
32
Is the desktop metaphor dead?
33
Basically file systems
Concept of files, loading and saving
Then with the Internet, the concepts
of uploading and downloading
These concepts are disappearing…
Multistep install process (parts made
by lawyers)
Traditional Operating Systems
35
Forgot to save
your file?
What do people do with computes - 

desktop, laptop, tablet, smartphone - today?
Communication - talk, messages
Reading
Take/View Photos
Watch Movies
Shopping
Browse the Internet
Read news
Write documents, blogs
Financial transactions
Learning
Microsoft Bill Buxton on 

Natural User Interfaces
39
“My	specialty	is	people.”		
–	Bill	Buxton
41
The Next Device
IBM 5150 - 35 years ago
Macintosh - 32 years ago
Dell Desktop PC - Today
Lenovo Carbon X1 Laptop - Today
Smartphone Netbooks Laptop Desktop
The world in 2010
Bluetooth Devices
Lots of devices - communicating
Less friction - just works
Simple and easy to use with

bad security
Bluedouche
If it look ugly
on this guy,

it is ugly on you
Smartphone Netbooks Laptop Desktop
The world in 2010
iPad 2010 - “The iPad Effect”
The iPad Effect
Multi-touch input
Software Platform – apps
Real OS
The computer just became 

a consumer device
Death of the File System, 

Install process
The iPad Effect
Tablets are disrupting the netbook/laptop/PC market
Replacing eReaders
Killing papers and magazines - or saving them?
Change in life style
Is this new market disruption also?
What happens when you can access the internet with a $100 device?
SOFTWARE	
WORK
FOCUS
APPS
VIEW/BROWSE
ENTERTAIN
APPS	
CHECK	
NOW!
VIDEO	
WATCHING
RELAXED
DIGITAL WORLD
DIGITAL WORLD
http://wersm.com/facebook-wants-to-be-the-leading-second-screen-app/
87% TV viewers are using a device when watching TV

The traditional TV model 

of scheduled TV does not

work anymore
The only thing that works in

TV is live TV and premieres

of major shows - due to Twitter
From Mary Meeker’s slide deck.
What’s the next device?
Device on your arm
What’s the next device?
Answer:
Many objects around us will become

“smartobject”
Smartwatch is just one of them
Fitness trackers
64
Glasses
What happend to Google Glasses?
Product was primitive, low quality, very expensive
And not enough people wanted it, social issues
Marketing failure
Adjacent Possible
It was not the time - technology not ready
Will it come back?
Yes, in some form
Microsoft Hololens
72
How can Augmented Reality improve 

our life and work?
Augmented Reality
Virtual Reality Headset
Facebook owns Oculus
What is the vision for Facebook of the Future?
Adjacent Possible
Really - are phones ready for VR?
Future of Game consoles?
Microsoft Kinect
Gesture-control system

Leap Motion
Gesture Control bracelet

Myo
Voice Recognition
Family robots
Amazon Echo
66
Desktop, laptops Mobile, tablets, smartphones
BEFORE Now
67
Desktop metaphor, mouse

keyboard
Gesture, audio, touch
BEFORE Now
NEXT:
A WORLD WIDE NETWORK

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L18 Big Data and Analytics
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L16 Internet of Things
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L09 Disruptive Technology
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L06 Diffusion of Innovation
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L05 Innovation
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L04 Adjacent Possible
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