After the computing industry got started, a new problem quickly emerged. How do you operate this machines and how to you program them. The development of operating systems was relatively slow compared to the advances in hardware. First system were primitive but slowly got better as demand for computing power increased. The ideas of the Graphical User Interfaces or GUI (Gooey) go back to Doug Engelbarts Demo of the Century. However, this did not have much impact on the computer industry. One company though, Xerox, a photocopy company explored these ideas with Palo Alto Park. Steve Jobs of Apple and Bill Gates of Microsoft took notice and Apple introduced first Apple Lisa and the Macintosh. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of software, and see how our business theories apply. In this lecture on we look so lessons for the development of algorithms or software, and see how our business theories apply. In the second part we look at where software is going, namely Artificial Intelligence. Resent developments in AI are causing an AI boom and new AI application are coming all the time. We look at machine learning and deep learning to get an understanding of the current trends.

1. LECTURE L17
ALGORITHMS AND AI

2. Module 5: Algorithms and Platforms
Lecture L17 Algorithms and AI
Lecture L18 Big Data and Analytics
Lecture L19 Network Platforms
Lecture L20 Personalised World
Next

3. LECTURE L17
ALGORITHMS AND AI

6. Grace Hopper Jean Jennings Bartik Dorothy Johnson Vaughan
Pioneers

7. As computers became more powerful and more common, a
new problem surfaced: software
Development of computers was a hardware problem
Software or programs did not get the same attention
Operating systems were primitive and
programming was done at a very low level
Software

8. “[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines
have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!”
— Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer
Source: Software_crisis
Software Engineering was not a established field
Became known as The Software Crisis
The Software Crisis

9. IBM developed OS/360 for System 360
DEC developed VMS for VAX
Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix
System V, BSD, Solaris
Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with
the Minix license
Operating Systems

10. FORTRAN
Mathematical Formula Translation System
Released in 1957
Higher level language that became
breakthrough in writing software
Created by John Backus of IBM
Came on 2.000 punched cards
Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol
Programming Languages

13. First applications were non-serious
Soon business applications started to
emerge
VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of
computer sales was due to this program
Other business apps appeared:
Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc.
Disruptive technology
Early Applications

14. Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston
Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet
The spreadsheet created a new market
People bought the hardware to run the software
Killer Apps

16. According to the RPV Theory, IBM would not be able to enter
the PC market
Their customers were asking for big and powerful machines,
and needed programs and support
RPV

17. IBM decided to enter the PC revolution — Project “Chess”
The company was loosing market share, competition was growing
Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn”
Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL
Looked for parts outside of the company
IBM PC

18. IBM needed an Operating System
Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary
Kildall
Microsoft was providing programming languages
and suggested that IBM make a deal with DR
The War of the OS

19. The Birth of the Microsoft DOS
Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary

21. IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from
another company
Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM
In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market
The War of the OS

22. Small system
Came on a floppy
PC-DOS

23. The IBM PC was introduced
12. August 1981 in New York
4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM
DOS 1.0
$1.565
IBM PC

25. Enter the Clones

26. IBM released all the specification of the machine
Open system
This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines
Compac was one of them
Enter the Clones

27. IBM controlled the market for a few years
They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted
performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from
cannibalising higher-priced models
The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines
The PC market took off
IBM started to loose market share
Enter the Clones

28. Early 80s IBM PC became the standard
hardware
MS-DOS became the industry standard OS
Command Line Interface – CLI
Text User Interfaces – TUI
PC Compatible Machines Ruled

29. y Trend
Focus in on hardware, the
software is good-enough

30. Adoption Life Cycle
Still in the early stages –
technology is the focus

31. “The Demo” of the Century in 1968
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
- Alan Key

32. The Demo
1968

33. Doug Engelbart at the
Augmentation Research Centre
in Melno Park
Demonstrated the future of
computing
The Demo in 1968

35. A pointing device – the Mouse
Hypertext, graphical user interface
Dynamic file linking
Shared-screen collaboration involving
two persons at different sites
communicating over a network with
audio and video interface
Features

36. Lesson
Visualise the Future and show
people, and they will build it

37. Xerox Parc

38. Alto Computer 1972
Xerox created a lab in 1970
Palo Alto Research Park – PARC
PARC was a place for visionaries
The Alto computer system had
Graphical User Interface – GUI
and a mouse as an input
Desktop metaphor with Files and folders
Xerox Parc

41. Then Steve came on a visit

43. Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979
Negotiated at deal with Xerox
They showed him:
Object Oriented Programming
Computer networks
Graphical User Interface
Apple started to work on this vision
The Pirate Years
Graphical User Interfaces – GUI

44. RPV Theory
Xerox had just build the
OS of the future but they
did nothing with it

46. Point,
Click,
Drag
Files, folders
Icons
Windows, scroll bars
Menus
Graphical fonts
Clipboard, cut and paste, undo
Point, activate, select
Graphical User Interfaces – GUI

47. First commercial computer with
a GUI
Introduced in January 1983
Cost $9.995
Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz
clock rate and had 1MB RAM
Featured cooperative (non-
preemptive)
multi-tasking and virtual
memory
Apple Lisa

48. First commercial computer
with a GUI
Introduced in January 1983
Cost $9.995
Impact:
Business failure
Too expensive
Too slow
Apple Lisa

49. Adjacent Possible
Technology wasn’t there yet

50. In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh
Cost $1.995
Graphical User Interface
This set the standard for
Operating Systems
Specification:
128 KB of RAM
Screen was a 9-inch,
512x342 pixel monochrome display
Macintosh

52. Acceptance was slow
The Mac was underpowered
The GUI required memory and power
Writing Software was difficult
Gained popularity in education and with
graphical designers – desktop publishers
Not so popular in the traditional business sector
Microsoft provided applications (office apps)
Macintosh

53. Microsoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985
Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces
were the future
Regarded Front-end to DOS
Other players
IBM TopView, DR GEM
Impact
Software companies ignored Windows
The business sector was not ready
Others Join the Game

54. Windows finally became usable
Released May 1990
Better use of memory
Multitasking
Used the 286 and 386 hardware better
Support for CD-ROM
Solitaire
Impact:
First GUI used by the PC market
The end of DOS, finally
Windows 3.0

55. Windows 95

57. KEY TREND
Computers become
consumer devices

59. Microsoft turned to consumers
Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market
Support for the Internet
Internet Explorer
Friendlier user interfaces
Impact
Released with great fanfare
Came to dominate the OS market
The OS become more important than the hardware
Windows 95

61. Operating System for Consumers

63. Ubuntu
Mac OS X
Windows
More choices, less important

64. iOS
Android
Operating Systems Today

65. ▪ Shift from hardware to software
▪ None of the minicomputer makers became a significant factor
in the desktop personal computer market
▪ The PC was disruptive technology
▪ The minicomputer users were not buying PCs – yet
▪ This created a new set of entrants: Apple, Tandy, Commodore,
and IBM
Lessons

66. ▪ In the late 1980s the performance of PCs met the needs of
minicomputer users
▪ This severely wounded minicomputer makers – many of them
failed
▪ At same time IBM succeeded in entering the PC market – how?
▪ It created an autonomous organization in Florida – far away
from it’s New York headquarters
▪ They created the PC market
▪ Then headquarters took control and lost control to the Clones
Lessons

67. ▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the computer market
▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they
“just didn’t get it”
▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their
customers were not asking for computer systems
▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes
and values
– RPV theory
Lessons

68. ▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers
▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not
pursue it
▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did
not get rich of computers and software
▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented
VisiCalc – did not make much money
Lessons

69. ▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft
▪ Took the opportunity with MITS
▪ Focused on software
▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but Microsoft bought
similar OS and succeeded
▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh
▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win
▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it
Lessons

70. ▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then
GUIs
▪ GUI were slow to appear
▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users
▪ Stretched the hardware at the time
▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers
▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance
▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some niche market in
Desktop Publishing and schools
Lessons

71. ▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer
▪ First mass market of Operating Systems
– The Internet helped
▪ Today we have three major Operating Systems
– Linux (Unix based)
– MacOS (Unix based)
– Windows
Lessons

72. Q3
What is the future of Personal Computers and
Operating Systems?

73. 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Hardware era
PC, Mac
Software OS era
Windows, Office, MacOS
Internet
Hardware Connects
IBM PC Microsoft
Apple
2010
Software web era
Web 2.0, Social
2015
Internet of things
PC Evolution
2020

74. Any important technology will eventually disappear

75. Interaction is changing to
natural interaction

76. Computers are changing
shape and becoming
invisible

77. Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…

78. The Internet cloud
More programs and data is stored on network
servers
The Personal Computer becomes one of the
form factors to access the network
Examples
Amazon API
Google Apps
Facework Platform API
The Network is the Computer

79. Next
Lecture L18 Big Data and Analytics