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LECTURE L12
THE RISE OF THE MACHINE
“I can assure you on the highest authority that the data
processing is a fad and 

won’t last out the year.”
Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall 1957
Q1
Define the term computer
dictionary.com
69 years ago
“I	
  think	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  world	
  market	
  for	
  maybe	
  five	
  
computers.”	
  
-­‐	
  Thomas	
  Watson,	
  chairman	
  of	
  IBM,	
  1943	
  
38 years ago
“There	
  is	
  no	
  reason	
  for	
  any	
  individual	
  to	
  have	
  a	
  
computer	
  in	
  their	
  home.”	
  
-­‐	
  Kenneth	
  Olsen,	
  president	
  and	
  founder	
  of	
  Digital	
  
Equipment	
  Corp.,	
  1977	
  
Think about this
How many computers do you
have in your household?
Q2
What were the two main reasons
to build calculating machines?
History
Computing is time consuming and error prone
Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies
Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms
Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defence
Efforts to speed calculations started early
Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations
The Counting Business
The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625
Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier
a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b))
Much quicker than manual calculation
The Counting Business
Early Machines
Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635)
German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy
University of Tüblingen, Germany
Built a calculating machine in 1620s
Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler
1623 and 24
Blaise Pascal (1623-1662)
French mathematician, physicist, and 

religious philosopher
Built an adding machine in1642-44
Tried to commercialise the machine but
labor was too cheap
Early Machines
Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716)
German mathematician and philosopher
Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that
could multiply and divide
Early Machines
Q3
Why did early machines not get
widespread?
History
Workmanship for building complex machines lacked
In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing
Calculations were done by hand
Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled
with errors
Think about this
How long does it take to compute
707 decimal places of PI?
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510582097494459230781640628620899862803
4825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481117450284102701938521
1055596446229489549303819644288109756659334461284756482337867831652712019091456485669234
6034861045432664821339360726024914127372458700660631558817488152092096282925409171536436
7892590360011330530548820466521384146951941511609433057270365759591953092186117381932611
7931051185480744623799627495673518857527248912279381830119491298336733624406566430860213
9494639522473719070217986094370277053921717629317675238467481846766940513200056812714526
3560827785771342757789609173637178721468440901224953430146549585371050792279689258923
Think about this
The idea of calculating with steam was to many
impossible - machines could never take over this
human activity
Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that
will be taken over by machine in the future?
Charles Babbage

(1791 – 1871)
Sometimes called Inventor of 

the Computer

Wanted to remove the inevitable

human errors from computing

Believed that machines could 

replace laborious and 

error-prone calculations
Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Designed the Difference Engine

Machine to compute polynomials

Got grants but efforts were slow

Lack of workmanship of the time 

delayed the project

Worked stopped 1833
Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Babbage started on a new machine in 1834

Beginning of the 2nd Kondratiev – Steam

Analytical engine

Programmable machine – with 

primitive programming language

Input was in punched cards

Run by steam
Augusta Ada King (1815-1852)
Countess of Lovelace
A Programmable Machine - 

General purpose computer
Contained 

mill to calculate, 

store to keep data, 

and formulas
The first programmer
Q4
What was the first killer
application for calculating
machines?
The Cash Register
The Cash Register
One of the first calculating machines
Developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff
“The Incorruptible Cashier”
National Cash Register Company – NCR
One of the salesman was Tomas Watson, Sr.
Watson would later leave for 

CRT – Computing-Tabulating-Recording 

Company
Tabulating Machines
Tabulating Machines
In the US need for data processing was growing

One application was census taking

US population grew from 

17 million in 1840 to 

50 million in 1880

It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to 

produce the 1880 census
Tabulating Machines
Source:	
  Tabulating	
  machine

Herman	
  Hollerith	
  
Tabulating Machine Company – TMC

US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the
1890 census

Tabulating Machines with punched cards

Successfully finished in 2,5 years

with one-third less cost (claimed)
Tabulating Machines
Source:	
  Tabulating	
  machine

Herman	
  Hollerith	
  
Used punched cards

Hollerith cards were in use until 1960s
Tabulating Machines
The Business of Data Processing

Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the
market for tabulating machines was limited

CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to
International Business Machines – IBM
“I think there is a market for about five computers”
- Tomas Watson, Sr.
Electronic Brains
Electric Computing
Foundation of electric computing was laid early 

Mechanical computers were not considered practical

Electricity is widespread

Threat of war is looming in the 1930s

Governments turn to computing for ballistic computations and code-breaking
Although electricity had
entered the equation, it had
done so only as an alternative
method of powering
mechanical equipment
Source:	
  Engines	
  that	
  Move	
  Markets
The Prevailing Technology Trap
Konrad Zuse (1910-1995)
German Engineer
Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based 

on relay switches in 1936 – 1944
Used binary system
Designed his own language, Plankalkül
Never received any official support from

war-time Germany unlike the Allies
Early Work
P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0]
V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0]
(Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0]
Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0]
END
Source:	
  Konrad	
  Zuse
Bletchley Park
Location of top-secret code-breaking team
Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA
Alan Turing
Source:	
  Alan	
  Turing,	
  COLOSSUS,	
  Enigma
English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer
Headed the team at Bletchley Park
Worked on the algorithms to break

the ENIGMA code
Bombe Computer based on heuristics
Lead to COLOSSUS – one of the first

electronic computer
Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers
War Machines
Source:	
  COLOSSUS
COLOSSUS
Built in England’s Bletchley Park and used by British code breakers to read
encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II
Designed by Alan Turing
Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of 

most of the Colossus machines into 'pieces 

no bigger than a man's hand‘
Q5
Why were machines built
during World war II?
War Machines
Source:	
  EINIAC
ENIAC
Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer
Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables
Used 18.000 vacuum tubes
Designed by John Mauchly and 

J. Presper Eckert
The machine was unveiled in 1946 and
was in operation until 1955
John von Neumann
John	
  von	
  Neumann,	
  Von	
  Neumann	
  architecture
Hungarian mathematician
Worked on the Manhattan project and became
involved in Moore’s School ENIAC and EDVAC
projects
Publishes paper - or a memo, 

On computer design, 1945
Came to be know as 

Von Neumann architecture
Copyright	
  ©	
  2011	
  Ólafur	
  Andri	
  Ragnarsson
Post-war computers
Based on vacuum tubes
UNIVAC I
Source:	
  Model	
  of	
  UNIVAC	
  I,	
  c.	
  1954.

Picture	
  from	
  Smithsonian	
  Institution	
  
Source:	
  UNIVAC	
  I	
  
Commercial Computer

5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could
perform about 1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock

Occupied more than 35.5 m²

of floor space

The addition time was 525 

microseconds
Transistor Era
Transistor was invented by William Shockley, 

John Bardeen and Walter Brattain in 1948
Transistor
Device use to amplify or switch electronic signals
Huge performance improvement
Smaller
Less energy
More robust
Faster
Copyright	
  ©	
  2011	
  Ólafur	
  Andri	
  Ragnarsson
Computers became

faster, larger and more
powerful
Tyranny of Numbers
Source:	
  Tyranny	
  of	
  Numbers,	
  Transistor	
  Computer	
  
Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors
Problem was that as the number of components 

increased, wiring them together became a problem
Q6
What solved the Tyranny of
Numbers problem?
The Integrated circuit
Copyright	
  ©	
  2011	
  Ólafur	
  Andri	
  Ragnarsson
The Invention of the Integrated Circuit
Source:	
  Integrated	
  circuit	
  
Introduced in 1958 by two inventors
Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments
Transistors could be wired 

together in practical way
Mass manufacturing of ICs
Adjacent possible
Two inventors at the same time
invented the IC
Competition Emerges
The Computer Market is born

The main application is data processing

• Business applications like Payroll, inventory and so on

IBM enters the computer business

Tomas Watson, Jr. launched

IBM System/360 in 1964

Systematically replaced 

data processing machines

with mainframe computers
In the 1950s Automation Starts
Automation
Automation – Computers begin to disrupt
Start to replace jobs
Banks and insurance companies were early adopters
Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute
Automation
Source:	
  Desk	
  Set	
  (from	
  IMDB)
Hollywood took notice
Desk Set from 1957 with 

Spencer Tracey and

Katherine Hepburn
From Mainframes to Personal Computers
Think About This!
Resources, Processes and Values Theory
The Disruptive Innovation Theory
Computers in the 1970s
Mainframes
IBM	
  704
IBM	
  System/360
Large computers in data centres

Batch operations

Critical applications

Financial transaction processing
Q7
Mainframes were expensive.
Not many people could use
them. How was this solved?
Centralisation
Time-sharing
Computers were expensive to purchase and maintain

To make it efficient required multiple users

Large data centres

Utility Computing

Time-sharing of expensive equipment
Moore’s Law
Cost of computers went down
Minicomputers
Cost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s
Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit
from using computes
Birth of the Minicomputers
Two major client groups: 

academic community and the military
Minicomputers
Digital Equipment Corporation
Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen
Launched PDP-1 in 1960
The PDP-8 was the first successful 

commercial minicomputer – 1965
Used integrated circuits
Time-sharing allowed multiple 

users to use the machines at the same time
The Disruptive Innovation Theory
Digital used relatively simple,
convenient, low-cost innovation
to create growth and disrupt IBM
Q8
Why did IBM not go into the
mini computer market?
RPV
IBM Was a mainframe
company, their customers
wanted mainframes, not low-
performance mini computers
Q9
The early computers were all
about building the right
hardware – this ignored what
important element?
SOFTWARE

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L12 The Rise of the Machine

  • 1. LECTURE L12 THE RISE OF THE MACHINE
  • 2. “I can assure you on the highest authority that the data processing is a fad and 
 won’t last out the year.” Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall 1957
  • 4.
  • 6. 69 years ago “I  think  there  is  a  world  market  for  maybe  five   computers.”   -­‐  Thomas  Watson,  chairman  of  IBM,  1943  
  • 7. 38 years ago “There  is  no  reason  for  any  individual  to  have  a   computer  in  their  home.”   -­‐  Kenneth  Olsen,  president  and  founder  of  Digital   Equipment  Corp.,  1977  
  • 8. Think about this How many computers do you have in your household?
  • 9. Q2 What were the two main reasons to build calculating machines?
  • 10. History Computing is time consuming and error prone Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defence
  • 11. Efforts to speed calculations started early Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations The Counting Business
  • 12. The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625 Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b)) Much quicker than manual calculation The Counting Business
  • 13. Early Machines Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635) German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy University of Tüblingen, Germany Built a calculating machine in 1620s Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler 1623 and 24
  • 14. Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) French mathematician, physicist, and 
 religious philosopher Built an adding machine in1642-44 Tried to commercialise the machine but labor was too cheap Early Machines
  • 15. Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716) German mathematician and philosopher Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that could multiply and divide Early Machines
  • 16. Q3 Why did early machines not get widespread?
  • 17. History Workmanship for building complex machines lacked In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing Calculations were done by hand Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled with errors
  • 18. Think about this How long does it take to compute 707 decimal places of PI? 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510582097494459230781640628620899862803 4825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481117450284102701938521 1055596446229489549303819644288109756659334461284756482337867831652712019091456485669234 6034861045432664821339360726024914127372458700660631558817488152092096282925409171536436 7892590360011330530548820466521384146951941511609433057270365759591953092186117381932611 7931051185480744623799627495673518857527248912279381830119491298336733624406566430860213 9494639522473719070217986094370277053921717629317675238467481846766940513200056812714526 3560827785771342757789609173637178721468440901224953430146549585371050792279689258923
  • 19.
  • 20. Think about this The idea of calculating with steam was to many impossible - machines could never take over this human activity Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that will be taken over by machine in the future?
  • 21. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871) Sometimes called Inventor of 
 the Computer Wanted to remove the inevitable
 human errors from computing Believed that machines could 
 replace laborious and 
 error-prone calculations
  • 22.
  • 23. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871) Designed the Difference Engine Machine to compute polynomials Got grants but efforts were slow Lack of workmanship of the time 
 delayed the project Worked stopped 1833
  • 24.
  • 25. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871) Babbage started on a new machine in 1834 Beginning of the 2nd Kondratiev – Steam Analytical engine Programmable machine – with 
 primitive programming language Input was in punched cards Run by steam
  • 26. Augusta Ada King (1815-1852) Countess of Lovelace A Programmable Machine - 
 General purpose computer Contained 
 mill to calculate, 
 store to keep data, 
 and formulas The first programmer
  • 27.
  • 28. Q4 What was the first killer application for calculating machines?
  • 30. The Cash Register One of the first calculating machines Developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff “The Incorruptible Cashier” National Cash Register Company – NCR One of the salesman was Tomas Watson, Sr. Watson would later leave for 
 CRT – Computing-Tabulating-Recording 
 Company
  • 32. Tabulating Machines In the US need for data processing was growing One application was census taking US population grew from 
 17 million in 1840 to 
 50 million in 1880 It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to 
 produce the 1880 census
  • 33. Tabulating Machines Source:  Tabulating  machine
 Herman  Hollerith   Tabulating Machine Company – TMC US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the 1890 census Tabulating Machines with punched cards Successfully finished in 2,5 years
 with one-third less cost (claimed)
  • 34. Tabulating Machines Source:  Tabulating  machine
 Herman  Hollerith   Used punched cards Hollerith cards were in use until 1960s
  • 35. Tabulating Machines The Business of Data Processing Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the market for tabulating machines was limited CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to International Business Machines – IBM
  • 36. “I think there is a market for about five computers” - Tomas Watson, Sr. Electronic Brains
  • 37. Electric Computing Foundation of electric computing was laid early Mechanical computers were not considered practical Electricity is widespread Threat of war is looming in the 1930s Governments turn to computing for ballistic computations and code-breaking
  • 38. Although electricity had entered the equation, it had done so only as an alternative method of powering mechanical equipment Source:  Engines  that  Move  Markets The Prevailing Technology Trap
  • 39.
  • 40. Konrad Zuse (1910-1995) German Engineer Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based 
 on relay switches in 1936 – 1944 Used binary system Designed his own language, Plankalkül Never received any official support from
 war-time Germany unlike the Allies Early Work P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0] V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] (Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0] END Source:  Konrad  Zuse
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Bletchley Park Location of top-secret code-breaking team Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA
  • 44. Alan Turing Source:  Alan  Turing,  COLOSSUS,  Enigma English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer Headed the team at Bletchley Park Worked on the algorithms to break
 the ENIGMA code Bombe Computer based on heuristics Lead to COLOSSUS – one of the first
 electronic computer Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers
  • 45.
  • 46. War Machines Source:  COLOSSUS COLOSSUS Built in England’s Bletchley Park and used by British code breakers to read encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II Designed by Alan Turing Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of 
 most of the Colossus machines into 'pieces 
 no bigger than a man's hand‘
  • 47. Q5 Why were machines built during World war II?
  • 48. War Machines Source:  EINIAC ENIAC Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables Used 18.000 vacuum tubes Designed by John Mauchly and 
 J. Presper Eckert The machine was unveiled in 1946 and was in operation until 1955
  • 49.
  • 50. John von Neumann John  von  Neumann,  Von  Neumann  architecture Hungarian mathematician Worked on the Manhattan project and became involved in Moore’s School ENIAC and EDVAC projects Publishes paper - or a memo, 
 On computer design, 1945 Came to be know as 
 Von Neumann architecture
  • 51. Copyright  ©  2011  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson Post-war computers Based on vacuum tubes
  • 52. UNIVAC I Source:  Model  of  UNIVAC  I,  c.  1954.
 Picture  from  Smithsonian  Institution   Source:  UNIVAC  I   Commercial Computer 5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could perform about 1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock Occupied more than 35.5 m²
 of floor space The addition time was 525 
 microseconds
  • 53.
  • 55. Transistor was invented by William Shockley, 
 John Bardeen and Walter Brattain in 1948
  • 56. Transistor Device use to amplify or switch electronic signals Huge performance improvement Smaller Less energy More robust Faster
  • 57. Copyright  ©  2011  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson Computers became
 faster, larger and more powerful
  • 58.
  • 59. Tyranny of Numbers Source:  Tyranny  of  Numbers,  Transistor  Computer   Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors Problem was that as the number of components 
 increased, wiring them together became a problem
  • 60. Q6 What solved the Tyranny of Numbers problem?
  • 62. Copyright  ©  2011  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson The Invention of the Integrated Circuit Source:  Integrated  circuit   Introduced in 1958 by two inventors Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments Transistors could be wired 
 together in practical way Mass manufacturing of ICs
  • 63. Adjacent possible Two inventors at the same time invented the IC
  • 64. Competition Emerges The Computer Market is born The main application is data processing • Business applications like Payroll, inventory and so on IBM enters the computer business Tomas Watson, Jr. launched
 IBM System/360 in 1964 Systematically replaced 
 data processing machines
 with mainframe computers
  • 65. In the 1950s Automation Starts
  • 66. Automation Automation – Computers begin to disrupt Start to replace jobs Banks and insurance companies were early adopters Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute
  • 67. Automation Source:  Desk  Set  (from  IMDB) Hollywood took notice Desk Set from 1957 with 
 Spencer Tracey and
 Katherine Hepburn
  • 68.
  • 69. From Mainframes to Personal Computers
  • 70. Think About This! Resources, Processes and Values Theory The Disruptive Innovation Theory
  • 72. Mainframes IBM  704 IBM  System/360 Large computers in data centres Batch operations Critical applications Financial transaction processing
  • 73. Q7 Mainframes were expensive. Not many people could use them. How was this solved?
  • 75. Time-sharing Computers were expensive to purchase and maintain To make it efficient required multiple users Large data centres Utility Computing Time-sharing of expensive equipment
  • 76. Moore’s Law Cost of computers went down
  • 77. Minicomputers Cost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit from using computes Birth of the Minicomputers Two major client groups: 
 academic community and the military
  • 78. Minicomputers Digital Equipment Corporation Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen Launched PDP-1 in 1960 The PDP-8 was the first successful 
 commercial minicomputer – 1965 Used integrated circuits Time-sharing allowed multiple 
 users to use the machines at the same time
  • 79. The Disruptive Innovation Theory Digital used relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovation to create growth and disrupt IBM
  • 80. Q8 Why did IBM not go into the mini computer market?
  • 81. RPV IBM Was a mainframe company, their customers wanted mainframes, not low- performance mini computers
  • 82. Q9 The early computers were all about building the right hardware – this ignored what important element?