This document discusses the need for foresight and outlines Japan's approach to foresight design. It notes that Japan faces an aging population and foresight is needed for rational policymaking. It describes Japan's national foresight activities since the 1970s including the use of Delphi surveys and scenarios. The 10th foresight survey involved web surveys of over 5,000 experts across different fields. Foresight helps develop data and evidence for policy studies and evaluation. It also improves public accountability of the policy process.

1. Why we need Foresight
- featuring aging society
Kuniko URASHIMA, Ph.D. 浦島邦⼦子
S&T Foresight Center 科学技術動向研究センター
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)
科学技術・学術政策研究所
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)
Japan ⽂文部科学省
Visiting professor at Nagoya Univ, Iwate Univ and The open Univ. of Japan
客員教授 名古屋⼤大学、岩⼿手⼤大学、放送⼤大学
SEAMEO@BKK, 11 March 2015

2. Outline
1. Our concern
2. Design of Future
• Current concerning in Japan
• Structure of S&T strategy
• Design of Foresight
• Planning

3. 3
age
x10,000
Prediction of population in Japan
127 Mil. (2005) 90 Mil. (2055)
Source:

4. First Vietnamese nurse candidates to arrive in June
May 30, 2014
The Foreign Ministry said Friday that 138 Vietnamese candidates for nurse
and caregiver jobs will arrive in Japan on June 6 under an economic
partnership agreement.
They will be the first candidates from the communist country accepted under
the bilateral EPA that took effect in October 2009.
After taking intensive Japanese lessons, the trainees will work at hospitals and
care facilities across the nation starting in August. While gaining experience,
they will aim to pass the national exams required to work as nurses and
caregivers.
At a bilateral summit in January 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his
Vietnamese counterpart, Nguyen Tan Dung, agreed to promote the program.
Japan has been accepting nurse and caregiver candidates from the Philippines
and Indonesia, but their pass rates stand at only about 10 percent, mainly due
to the language barrier.
Government policy has been changing of Law, regulation, etc

6. Nurse Care giver
Transition of acceptance number from Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam
Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Philippines Vietnam Philippines Vietnam
Candidate
Actual
Totally 2,377

7. + 66% + 53% +
80%
+ 19% + 16%
Employment status of Nurse 2003-2012 in Japan

8. 8

9. 2. Design of Foresight survey
• Design of Foresight
• Planning

10. Future is not only one way

11. National Foresight activities in the world
Latin America:
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Cuba,
Ecuador, Mexico, Peru,
Uruguay, Venezuela
North America:
Canada, USA
Oceania:
Australia,
New ZealandAfrica:
South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria,
Morocco, European Comission
(Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya,
Botswana, Senegal, Morocco,
Tunisia), Netherland (Kenya,
Uganda, Rwanda, South Africa,
Nigeria, Ghana)
Western Europe:
Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy,
Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland,
Sweden, UK,
Central & East Europe:
Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland, Russia, Ukraine
Middle East:
Israel, Iran, Jordan,
Pakistan, Turkey
11
Asia:
China, India, Kazakhstan,
Japan, Korea, Malaysia,
Singapore, Philippines, Taiwan,
Thailand, Vietnam
APEC, OECD, EU,
SEAMEO, etc.

12. 12
Integration with
innovation policy
Background of S&T policy and Foresight
•Establishment of CSTP
- Top down decision
making
•Link between S&T
policy and foresight
2001
1971
The 1st Technology Foresight
2005 The 8th S&T Foresight
Multi methods
Delphi
2010 The 9th S&T Foresight
Mission-oriented & interdisciplinary
Global and national
changes
2010
1996-2000
The 1st S&T BP
2001-2005
The 2nd S&T BP
2006-2010
The 3rd S&T BP
Innovation 25
2011-2015
The 4th S&T BP
Great Disaster
2016-2020
The 5th S&T BP ??
•Transition phase
•Moderate link between
S&T policy and foresight
1970-
1990-
•Catch up process
•Bottom-up decision making
•Consensus among sectors
2001
The 7thTechnology Foresight
Delphi
Every 5 years
2014 The 10th S&T Foresight
Vision base with Multi methods
1995
S&T Basic Law
Foresight
Basic plan

13. Who should involve S&T strategy
Steering committee
consisted of a chair and 15 members
including social scientists
Experts panels by theme
Each panel consisted of a chair and
around 10 members;
Workshops by theme
From 30 to 50 people joined each workshop.
Participants were; S&T experts, social scientists,
younger researchers, users, etc.
Delphi Survey
Web survey,
scientist, citizens
Scenario Writing
Each panel consisted of a chair and
around 10 members
10 person x 8 area
Local WS

14. Why do we need Foresight
- Increasing needs for data-infrastructure
" Foundation for more rational policy-making process
– Data as “evidences” for policy making
– Tool to improve quality of policy discussion
– Base of policy evaluation and monitoring
" Resources for policy studies on S&T and innovation
– Improve scientific methodology of policy studies
– Stimulate researchers to join in policy studies from various disciplines
" Public accountability
– Data as a tool for explanation
– Openness of policy formation process
" Since 2011, NISTEP has been developing data and information
infrastructure as part of MEXT’s “SciREX: Science for RE-designing
Science, Technology and Innovation Policy” program.
14

15. Foresight Methods
and activities
15
10th past

16. Change the future design
Innovation 25
16

17. 17
How realized? - 40 years experiments in foresight
Realization rate of past Delphi surveys conduced between 1971-1992
0 50 100
Energy
Environment
Life science
Medical care
ration of topic numbers (%)
technical problems Social problems
cost problems alternatives emerged
insufficient needs
Preventive
reasons
0 50 100
Energy
Environm
ent
Life
science
Medical
care
ration of topic numbers (%)
realized topics that were predicted to
realize after 2010
unrealized topics that were predicted to
realize after 2010
topics that were predicted to realized
until 2009
*"realized " means "realized at full" and "realized partially".
0 20 40 60 80 100
st survey (1971)
2nd survey (1977)
3rd survey (1982)
4th survey (1987)
5th survey (1992) realized at full
partially realized
Ratio of Topics with accelerated
realization
Around 70% of the topics in past
Delphi surveys are realized at
fully or partially.

18. Comparison of ratio of Researcher’s number
by performance sector
18

19. 19
Depiction of better life around 2025

20. Depiction of better life around 2025

21. 21

22. 22
北京通州区

23. Thank you so much for your kind attention
http://www.nistep.go.jp
urashima@nistep.go.jp

25. 課題解決型シナリオプランニング（３）
出典: H25年度SciREX委託報告より

26. 26
Japanese GDP and population structure

27. NURSING WORKFORCE PROFILE DATABASE SUMMARY in
2013
http://www.icn.ch/images/stories/documents/pillars/sew/DATASHEET_SUMMARY_NURSING_PROFILE_WFF_2013.pdf

29. History and overview of Foresight design in Japan
• Multi methods that included
social issue started since 8th
survey.
• The 9th survey conducted
mission oriented and
interdisciplinary methods.
• The 10th survey is now on
going. (2013-2014)
• The first trial of web base
survey.
• Combination of technologies
and society driven issue.
9th
Design of the 10th S&T Foresight

30. 30
＜Discussion Point＞
・ Consider variety of circumstance
・ Relating to electricity directly / in-directly
・ Technologies / non-technologies
・ Possibility, Effect, Sustainability
Group A (Forecast) Group B (Backcast)
＜Attendees ＞
・ Industry / electric device maker, housing,
construction, developer, building maker,
transportation, etc.
・ University, Institute]
・ Related organization
2. Workshop for Delphi Survey - Making Questionnaire
From Now to Future From Future to Now

31. Overview of the 10th Foresight project
NW members and
Science associations
collaborations
31
⑧ Service society
① ICT and analytics
② Health, medical , …
③ Agricultures, food, …
④ Space, ocean, …
⑤ Environment, energy, …
⑥ Materials, devices, …
⑦ Infrastructure
Scenario analysis committees
Delphi Committees
Improvement of Lifestyle-related diseases
Industry analysis for renewable energy
Future Vision committees
NISTEP Foresight center
Web survey
2011-13
2014
Evaluation of
Importance
Certain/ uncertain
Non-continuity
Morality
International
competitiveness
Realization year for Tech.
and Market/Social
Challenge/how
Setting-up topics
discussion

32. Results – response rate
32
5,270 experts registered and 4,309 responded (cumulative total 6,078)

33. 33
90s 00s 10s
S&T
Basic Plan
Administrative
chronicle
Ruling party
NISTEP
1st
1996-2000
2nd
2001-2005
3rd
2006-2010
4th
2011-2015
CSTP
LDP DPJ
Foresight
STFC
2001
Administrative reform
Review of
2nd S&T
Basic plan
Review of
3rd S&T
Basic plan
Former
CSTP
Theory-oriented research groups
Policy-oriented research groups
LDP
History of Government organization and S&T

34. Linkage between NISTEP’s Survey and Policy Making
Oct. 2002
Request for foresight
May. 2003
Budget
allocated
May. 2005
Review&Foresight
Survey
design
Reporting progress
Comments and requests
Every three months
CSTP
Committees
for the 3rd
Basic PlanInput of intermediate results
NISTEP
Final reports
Council
members
meeting
MEXT
Oct. 2004
Additionalsurvey
34