This presentation gives an introduction to Futures thinking and Foresight with the evolution of the practice and future prospects. Foresight is commonly used by national governments, international organisations and corporations to design long term futures and to formulate innovative strategies and actions.
Hezron M. | Franco Malerba
19 Feb, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
ZOOM online
LECTURE-7 DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO NATIONAL SYSTEMS OF INNOVATION
by
Dr. Hezron Makundi, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
CHAIR:
Professor Franco Malerba, University of Bocconi, Milan
The document discusses how technologies and technical arrangements can have inherent political qualities and social impacts. It provides examples of how technologies have been designed and implemented to influence social order and control, such as city planners using street designs to prevent protests and factory owners using new machines to weaken unions. The document also discusses how some technologies require specific social hierarchies or systems to function, making them inherently political. It concludes that technologies should not be viewed separately from their social contexts and that their design can shape political relationships.
Joseph Schumpeter coined the term "creative destruction" to describe how capitalism drives economic progress through the disruption of existing markets by new innovations. This disruption causes some businesses and jobs to fail while creating new opportunities and markets. Schumpeter argued that attempts to prevent this process would ultimately stall economic growth. The document discusses Schumpeter's concept of creative destruction and its role in business cycles and economic transformation over time. It also summarizes Schumpeter's views on other economists like Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and John Maynard Keynes.
This document provides an overview of Session 4 of the Innovation Management course taught by Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy in winter 2011. The session covers national innovation systems, regional innovation systems using Silicon Valley as a case study, and innovation clusters using the Galileo and SatNav clusters as examples. Key concepts discussed include the role of universities, research institutes, venture capital, and networking in regional innovation systems. The document also analyzes factors that contributed to Silicon Valley's success and lessons that can be learned from its development.
Lessons from industrial revolution presented by sajjad haider 2016Sajjad Haider
The Information Technology Revolution
Chapter One in
The Rise of the Network Society: The Information Age: Economy, Society, and Culture
By
Manuel Castells
Topic: Lessons fro the Industrial Revolution
Presentation by:
Sajjad Haider
Department of Anthropology
Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Facebook.com/Anthropologyqau
Slideshare.net/sajjadhaider786
Twitter.com/@streetpainter
#UrgingPeopleToExcel2016
Lectures and sessions on this topic can be booked through email: sajjadhaider786@gmail.com
As part of my mission of “Urging People To Excel”, I have made this presentation public. It may be used for academic excellence.
Please promote #UrgingPeopleToExcel to #motivate , #mobilize and #mentor the people around you.
Sajjad Haider
FounderUPTE
Sound strategic planning is rarely practiced in most organizations today, and at a critical time when the world is changing dramatically, it has never been more necessary.
(Bill Halal)
Global value chains have expanded significantly since 1995. While developed economies like the US and Japan have seen their share of global GDP decrease, emerging economies like China and countries in the BRICS bloc have experienced substantial growth. China in particular has grown from 0.5% to 5.7% of global GDP, reflecting its increasing participation and specialization in global manufacturing supply chains. However, capturing large shares of value added remains difficult for latecomers as knowledge-intensive activities tend to remain in developed countries. While globalization offers opportunities to enter international trade more easily, upgrading in global value chains requires strong innovation systems and policies to support learning and technology development domestically.
Hezron M. | Franco Malerba
19 Feb, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
ZOOM online
LECTURE-7 DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO NATIONAL SYSTEMS OF INNOVATION
by
Dr. Hezron Makundi, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
CHAIR:
Professor Franco Malerba, University of Bocconi, Milan
The document discusses how technologies and technical arrangements can have inherent political qualities and social impacts. It provides examples of how technologies have been designed and implemented to influence social order and control, such as city planners using street designs to prevent protests and factory owners using new machines to weaken unions. The document also discusses how some technologies require specific social hierarchies or systems to function, making them inherently political. It concludes that technologies should not be viewed separately from their social contexts and that their design can shape political relationships.
Joseph Schumpeter coined the term "creative destruction" to describe how capitalism drives economic progress through the disruption of existing markets by new innovations. This disruption causes some businesses and jobs to fail while creating new opportunities and markets. Schumpeter argued that attempts to prevent this process would ultimately stall economic growth. The document discusses Schumpeter's concept of creative destruction and its role in business cycles and economic transformation over time. It also summarizes Schumpeter's views on other economists like Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and John Maynard Keynes.
This document provides an overview of Session 4 of the Innovation Management course taught by Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy in winter 2011. The session covers national innovation systems, regional innovation systems using Silicon Valley as a case study, and innovation clusters using the Galileo and SatNav clusters as examples. Key concepts discussed include the role of universities, research institutes, venture capital, and networking in regional innovation systems. The document also analyzes factors that contributed to Silicon Valley's success and lessons that can be learned from its development.
Lessons from industrial revolution presented by sajjad haider 2016Sajjad Haider
The Information Technology Revolution
Chapter One in
The Rise of the Network Society: The Information Age: Economy, Society, and Culture
By
Manuel Castells
Topic: Lessons fro the Industrial Revolution
Presentation by:
Sajjad Haider
Department of Anthropology
Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Facebook.com/Anthropologyqau
Slideshare.net/sajjadhaider786
Twitter.com/@streetpainter
#UrgingPeopleToExcel2016
Lectures and sessions on this topic can be booked through email: sajjadhaider786@gmail.com
As part of my mission of “Urging People To Excel”, I have made this presentation public. It may be used for academic excellence.
Please promote #UrgingPeopleToExcel to #motivate , #mobilize and #mentor the people around you.
Sajjad Haider
FounderUPTE
Sound strategic planning is rarely practiced in most organizations today, and at a critical time when the world is changing dramatically, it has never been more necessary.
(Bill Halal)
Global value chains have expanded significantly since 1995. While developed economies like the US and Japan have seen their share of global GDP decrease, emerging economies like China and countries in the BRICS bloc have experienced substantial growth. China in particular has grown from 0.5% to 5.7% of global GDP, reflecting its increasing participation and specialization in global manufacturing supply chains. However, capturing large shares of value added remains difficult for latecomers as knowledge-intensive activities tend to remain in developed countries. While globalization offers opportunities to enter international trade more easily, upgrading in global value chains requires strong innovation systems and policies to support learning and technology development domestically.
In a Nutshell - an Analysis of Specific Corporate Foresight Methods from Inno...Djordje Pinter
The presentation is based on a literature review regarding some common foresight methods. Furthermore, an innovation management perspective is taken to analyze potential contributions of foresight methods, thereby considering also e.g. psychological biases.
Foresight can be viewed as a core competence similar to those described in the strategy literature. Both foresight and core competencies are knowledge-based, help provide customer value, and enable firms to build competitive advantage and identify new opportunities. However, foresight differs in that it often resides in individuals and teams rather than being fully integrated into company systems. Viewing foresight as a core competence highlights the importance of tacit knowledge held by individual managers for accumulating foresight knowledge and applying foresight concepts within companies.
Presents the theoretical foundations for a future orientation and describes one technique--the Futures Wheel--for helping others develop that orientation.
The document discusses the state of foresight in food and agriculture. It defines foresight as forward-looking, anticipatory research and analysis that integrates diverse perspectives. It notes the current state includes an inventory of over 1000 initiatives, new challenges around food insecurity and alternative farming models, and controversies around future farming patterns and food systems. Current foresight practices are noted to be more quantitative and less inclusive globally but more qualitative and inclusive nationally. The impact of foresight is said to be insufficiently evaluated. The document calls for improved foresight through more inclusive and participatory approaches.
Our immersive approach to creating the future has been embraced around the world! Join us for this one-of-a-kind, interactive and project-based program that empowers participants with the critical skills of Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking for a new era of complexity and change.
The document discusses the history and evolution of futures studies and foresight from its origins in utopian fiction to its current use in technology forecasting and policymaking. It traces key developments including the growth of science fiction in the 19th century, early attempts at systematic futures studies and technology forecasting in the early 20th century, the futures movement of the 1960s, and the establishment of the UK Foresight Programme in the 1990s. It analyzes how foresight has shifted from an emphasis on networking and prioritization to a focus on informing policy through more modest projects, and considers ongoing tensions around expertise, participation, and methodology in foresight practice.
The document outlines foresight and innovation tools and methods taught by Stanford University's Foresight and Innovation Network. It discusses a 3 phase approach to build foresight: 1) developing historical perspective, 2) identifying growth opportunities, and 3) defining paths to innovation. Specific tools are presented for each phase, including context maps, progression curves, Janus cones, demographics, future users, futuretelling, white spots, change paths, and 3D paper mockups. The goal is to connect long-term perspectives to innovation actions using collaborative, evidence-based strategic foresight practices.
Welcome to the future :) Foresight Strategy Innovation 2013 2014 (7th Edition)Paulo Carvalho
Welcome to the Future :) Foresight Strategy and Innovation 2013_2014 (7th Edition)
This is a fireworks of the post graduation "Foresight, Strategy and Innovation". Gives you a sense of the journey that you can take during this experience.
Esta apresentação oferece uma visão panorâmica e visual da experiência multisensorial que a Pós Graduação "Prospectiva, Estratégia e Inovação" procura oferecer a quem nela participa. Um enfoque particular sobre o futuro (os futuros) ... Começa já a pensar no teu ;)
www.idefe.pt
The document outlines six activities that can help organizations with foresight: framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, planning, and acting. Framing involves adjusting attitudes, understanding objectives, and creating strategic work environments. Scanning requires mapping systems, studying history, scanning environments, and involving colleagues. Forecasting identifies drivers and uncertainties to generate and prioritize alternative futures. Visioning identifies implications and assumptions to develop visionary thinking. Planning develops strategic options. Acting communicates results, creates action agendas and intelligence systems, and institutionalizes strategic thinking. The document provides percentages of benefits for each activity and contact information for Andy Hines of the University of Houston Foresight program.
Sprylogic Technologies is a private software company established in 2006 that follows a defined recruitment and selection process. The process begins with recruitment to acquire qualified applicants, followed by screening and selection tests to identify the best candidates. Selection involves preliminary interviews, tests to assess abilities, employment interviews, background and reference checks, and making a final selection decision. The company has an opportunity to adopt additional assessment tools like psychometric testing to better understand candidates. Overall, Sprylogic Technologies has sound recruitment and selection policies to acquire skilled employees and expand its business operations.
Lourenço F. & Nimita P. | Edward Lorenz
28 Jan, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
ZOOM online
LECTURE-4: THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF NATIONAL SYSTEMS OF INNOVATION
by
Dr. Lourenço Galvão Diniz Faria, Copenhagen University, Denmark.
&
Dr. Nimita Pandey, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.
CHAIR:
Professor Edward Lorenz, Aalborg University, Denmark & University of Johannesburg, SA.
+177 more
This document provides an overview of innovation and different types of innovation. It begins with definitions of innovation and discusses theories on innovation, including waves of innovation proposed by Schumpeter and Kondratiev, seven sources of innovation identified by Drucker, and Rogers' diffusion of innovation theory. It then describes the four types of innovation identified by Henderson and Clark: incremental, radical, modular, and architectural. Examples are given of each type of innovation. The document aims to explain what innovation is and why it is important to understand the different types of innovation.
Session 1 innovation and its global impact on economyAnne CASATI
Anne Casati is an affiliate professor at Grenoble Ecole de Management who focuses on innovation management, organizational change, and entrepreneurship. She is the founder and owner of Ressource-Conseil, a firm that provides strategic management consulting. This session will cover interactions between science, technology, markets, and organizations in shaping innovation programs and strategies. Students will learn how to analyze market and technology dynamics, incorporate innovation into strategic planning, and promote innovation within organizations. The course will use experiential learning methods like simulations and personality assessments.
This document discusses South Korea's acquisition of technological capabilities and development of an effective national innovation system. It analyzes South Korea's progress through four stages from the 1960s to present: 1) acquiring production capabilities through importing technology; 2) establishing heavy industries and developing investment capabilities while increasing exports; 3) emerging high-tech industries and local R&D in the 1980s; 4) strengthening industries and activities despite crises while pursuing reforms to become a knowledge economy. Interactive learning spaces involving firms, organizations, and institutions played a key role in South Korea's acquisition of capabilities, from initial production to innovation capabilities.
Luc Soete spoke on the old and new Manifestos, globalisation, population, innovation and research at the Manifesto Roundtable in the Hague, 24 November 2009.
The Roundtable was hosted by the 3TU.Centre for Ethics and Technology - www.ethicsandtechnology.eu
Luc Soete is professor of international economic relations at Maastricht University and director of UNU-MERIT.
To find out more about the Roundtables, visit www.anewmanifesto.org
João Tavares & Verónica R. | Giovanni Dosi
13 Jan, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
Online
LECTURE-2: The Economics of Technological Change
by
Dr. João Marcos Hausmann Tavares, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil
&
Dr. Verónica Robert, CONICET - UNSAM, Argentina.
CHAIR:
Professor Giovanni Dosi, Institute of Economics Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa.
Moderator: Dr. Nanditha M.
Heitor - What do we need to measure to foster “Knowledge as Our Common Future”?innovationoecd
This document discusses the need to rebalance science and technology (STI) indicators to better capture the intrinsic value of STI beyond just economic impacts. It notes that STI statistics have become overly focused on the instrumental economic value of innovation. The document also examines expectations for the OECD's role in STI indicators, including considering contributions from a wider variety of scientific fields, advancing understanding of knowledge production processes beyond national impacts, and characterizing professional practice-based research. It emphasizes that innovation is a collective and cumulative process requiring long-term investment in education and research.
B. Å. Lundvall | Alan Freeman
07 Jan, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
Online
LECTURE 1: FREEMAN CENTENARY LECTURE 'Innovation System Research and Economic Development '
by
Professor Bengt-Åke Lundvall, Aalborg University, Denmark.
The session is chaired by Professor Alan Freeman, Director - Geopolitical Economy Research Group (GERG).
This document discusses the need for a paradigm shift from "innovation follows research" to "research follows innovation". It analyzes different countries' approaches to research, development and innovation. France aims for "decompartmentalization" between universities, industry and hospitals to foster cross-fertilization. The European Union recognizes that more must be done to convert knowledge into commercial opportunities and close the innovation gap. Overall, the document argues that societies must adapt more quickly to change and place greater emphasis on applying research and developing innovations to tackle societal challenges.
LECTURE 6: THE INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT OF NSI
by
Dr. Olga Mikheeva, UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, UK
&
Dr. Manuel Gonzalo, Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento, Brazil.
CHAIR:
Professor Joseph K.J., Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation (GIFT), India
In a Nutshell - an Analysis of Specific Corporate Foresight Methods from Inno...Djordje Pinter
The presentation is based on a literature review regarding some common foresight methods. Furthermore, an innovation management perspective is taken to analyze potential contributions of foresight methods, thereby considering also e.g. psychological biases.
Foresight can be viewed as a core competence similar to those described in the strategy literature. Both foresight and core competencies are knowledge-based, help provide customer value, and enable firms to build competitive advantage and identify new opportunities. However, foresight differs in that it often resides in individuals and teams rather than being fully integrated into company systems. Viewing foresight as a core competence highlights the importance of tacit knowledge held by individual managers for accumulating foresight knowledge and applying foresight concepts within companies.
Presents the theoretical foundations for a future orientation and describes one technique--the Futures Wheel--for helping others develop that orientation.
The document discusses the state of foresight in food and agriculture. It defines foresight as forward-looking, anticipatory research and analysis that integrates diverse perspectives. It notes the current state includes an inventory of over 1000 initiatives, new challenges around food insecurity and alternative farming models, and controversies around future farming patterns and food systems. Current foresight practices are noted to be more quantitative and less inclusive globally but more qualitative and inclusive nationally. The impact of foresight is said to be insufficiently evaluated. The document calls for improved foresight through more inclusive and participatory approaches.
Our immersive approach to creating the future has been embraced around the world! Join us for this one-of-a-kind, interactive and project-based program that empowers participants with the critical skills of Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking for a new era of complexity and change.
The document discusses the history and evolution of futures studies and foresight from its origins in utopian fiction to its current use in technology forecasting and policymaking. It traces key developments including the growth of science fiction in the 19th century, early attempts at systematic futures studies and technology forecasting in the early 20th century, the futures movement of the 1960s, and the establishment of the UK Foresight Programme in the 1990s. It analyzes how foresight has shifted from an emphasis on networking and prioritization to a focus on informing policy through more modest projects, and considers ongoing tensions around expertise, participation, and methodology in foresight practice.
The document outlines foresight and innovation tools and methods taught by Stanford University's Foresight and Innovation Network. It discusses a 3 phase approach to build foresight: 1) developing historical perspective, 2) identifying growth opportunities, and 3) defining paths to innovation. Specific tools are presented for each phase, including context maps, progression curves, Janus cones, demographics, future users, futuretelling, white spots, change paths, and 3D paper mockups. The goal is to connect long-term perspectives to innovation actions using collaborative, evidence-based strategic foresight practices.
Welcome to the future :) Foresight Strategy Innovation 2013 2014 (7th Edition)Paulo Carvalho
Welcome to the Future :) Foresight Strategy and Innovation 2013_2014 (7th Edition)
This is a fireworks of the post graduation "Foresight, Strategy and Innovation". Gives you a sense of the journey that you can take during this experience.
Esta apresentação oferece uma visão panorâmica e visual da experiência multisensorial que a Pós Graduação "Prospectiva, Estratégia e Inovação" procura oferecer a quem nela participa. Um enfoque particular sobre o futuro (os futuros) ... Começa já a pensar no teu ;)
www.idefe.pt
The document outlines six activities that can help organizations with foresight: framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, planning, and acting. Framing involves adjusting attitudes, understanding objectives, and creating strategic work environments. Scanning requires mapping systems, studying history, scanning environments, and involving colleagues. Forecasting identifies drivers and uncertainties to generate and prioritize alternative futures. Visioning identifies implications and assumptions to develop visionary thinking. Planning develops strategic options. Acting communicates results, creates action agendas and intelligence systems, and institutionalizes strategic thinking. The document provides percentages of benefits for each activity and contact information for Andy Hines of the University of Houston Foresight program.
Sprylogic Technologies is a private software company established in 2006 that follows a defined recruitment and selection process. The process begins with recruitment to acquire qualified applicants, followed by screening and selection tests to identify the best candidates. Selection involves preliminary interviews, tests to assess abilities, employment interviews, background and reference checks, and making a final selection decision. The company has an opportunity to adopt additional assessment tools like psychometric testing to better understand candidates. Overall, Sprylogic Technologies has sound recruitment and selection policies to acquire skilled employees and expand its business operations.
Lourenço F. & Nimita P. | Edward Lorenz
28 Jan, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
ZOOM online
LECTURE-4: THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF NATIONAL SYSTEMS OF INNOVATION
by
Dr. Lourenço Galvão Diniz Faria, Copenhagen University, Denmark.
&
Dr. Nimita Pandey, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.
CHAIR:
Professor Edward Lorenz, Aalborg University, Denmark & University of Johannesburg, SA.
+177 more
This document provides an overview of innovation and different types of innovation. It begins with definitions of innovation and discusses theories on innovation, including waves of innovation proposed by Schumpeter and Kondratiev, seven sources of innovation identified by Drucker, and Rogers' diffusion of innovation theory. It then describes the four types of innovation identified by Henderson and Clark: incremental, radical, modular, and architectural. Examples are given of each type of innovation. The document aims to explain what innovation is and why it is important to understand the different types of innovation.
Session 1 innovation and its global impact on economyAnne CASATI
Anne Casati is an affiliate professor at Grenoble Ecole de Management who focuses on innovation management, organizational change, and entrepreneurship. She is the founder and owner of Ressource-Conseil, a firm that provides strategic management consulting. This session will cover interactions between science, technology, markets, and organizations in shaping innovation programs and strategies. Students will learn how to analyze market and technology dynamics, incorporate innovation into strategic planning, and promote innovation within organizations. The course will use experiential learning methods like simulations and personality assessments.
This document discusses South Korea's acquisition of technological capabilities and development of an effective national innovation system. It analyzes South Korea's progress through four stages from the 1960s to present: 1) acquiring production capabilities through importing technology; 2) establishing heavy industries and developing investment capabilities while increasing exports; 3) emerging high-tech industries and local R&D in the 1980s; 4) strengthening industries and activities despite crises while pursuing reforms to become a knowledge economy. Interactive learning spaces involving firms, organizations, and institutions played a key role in South Korea's acquisition of capabilities, from initial production to innovation capabilities.
Luc Soete spoke on the old and new Manifestos, globalisation, population, innovation and research at the Manifesto Roundtable in the Hague, 24 November 2009.
The Roundtable was hosted by the 3TU.Centre for Ethics and Technology - www.ethicsandtechnology.eu
Luc Soete is professor of international economic relations at Maastricht University and director of UNU-MERIT.
To find out more about the Roundtables, visit www.anewmanifesto.org
João Tavares & Verónica R. | Giovanni Dosi
13 Jan, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
Online
LECTURE-2: The Economics of Technological Change
by
Dr. João Marcos Hausmann Tavares, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil
&
Dr. Verónica Robert, CONICET - UNSAM, Argentina.
CHAIR:
Professor Giovanni Dosi, Institute of Economics Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa.
Moderator: Dr. Nanditha M.
Heitor - What do we need to measure to foster “Knowledge as Our Common Future”?innovationoecd
This document discusses the need to rebalance science and technology (STI) indicators to better capture the intrinsic value of STI beyond just economic impacts. It notes that STI statistics have become overly focused on the instrumental economic value of innovation. The document also examines expectations for the OECD's role in STI indicators, including considering contributions from a wider variety of scientific fields, advancing understanding of knowledge production processes beyond national impacts, and characterizing professional practice-based research. It emphasizes that innovation is a collective and cumulative process requiring long-term investment in education and research.
B. Å. Lundvall | Alan Freeman
07 Jan, 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm GMT
Online
LECTURE 1: FREEMAN CENTENARY LECTURE 'Innovation System Research and Economic Development '
by
Professor Bengt-Åke Lundvall, Aalborg University, Denmark.
The session is chaired by Professor Alan Freeman, Director - Geopolitical Economy Research Group (GERG).
This document discusses the need for a paradigm shift from "innovation follows research" to "research follows innovation". It analyzes different countries' approaches to research, development and innovation. France aims for "decompartmentalization" between universities, industry and hospitals to foster cross-fertilization. The European Union recognizes that more must be done to convert knowledge into commercial opportunities and close the innovation gap. Overall, the document argues that societies must adapt more quickly to change and place greater emphasis on applying research and developing innovations to tackle societal challenges.
LECTURE 6: THE INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT OF NSI
by
Dr. Olga Mikheeva, UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, UK
&
Dr. Manuel Gonzalo, Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento, Brazil.
CHAIR:
Professor Joseph K.J., Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation (GIFT), India
The document discusses how technology has evolved through different ages defined by dominant technologies like the stone age, iron age, and information age. It explains how technology generates wealth when commercialized or used strategically in organizations to improve productivity. While advanced technologies can create wealth, properly managing low to medium level technologies through strategies like cheaper labor, fewer regulations, and infrastructure development have allowed newly industrialized countries to successfully compete and see economic growth.
In this talk for the students of IIM Udaipur, I have discussed how AI as technology needs to deliver business value in order for AI as a discipline to be seen as relevant to business. I have also spoken briefly about my own research work.
This document provides information about an innovation management course, including:
- The course consists of 6 sessions over 20 hours, covering various chapters on innovation theory and management.
- Evaluation includes an intermediate group case study assessment and a final individual exam.
- Resources include a textbook, lecture slides, and case studies.
- The course plan outlines the topics to be covered in each session, including chapters on national innovation systems, technology diffusion, and managing innovation within and across firms.
The document discusses the need to move from a model of science communication focused on dissemination of information to the public, to a model of deliberation and collaboration. It notes the status quo involves mainly informing the public of what institutions are doing, but that "prosumers" now expect a dialogue. It suggests using online tools and media to facilitate public discussion and debate around complex science and technology issues in a transparent way, in order to build trust and foster readiness for change.
Presentation by Åke E. Andersson and David Emanuel Andersson
Advanced Brainstorm Carrefour (ABC):
‘Urban Empires - Cities as Global Rulers in the New Urban World’
Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland (August, 2016)
This document provides an overview of the evolution of information society and information technology. It discusses four phases of information society from the 1960s/1970s to a potential future phase in the 2010s characterized by ubiquitous computing. Each phase is associated with different technologies, uses of information, and policy approaches. The document also discusses models of technological change and debates around "Moore's Law" regarding long-term trends in computing power and their limits.
Research Methodology of Samsung Electronics Co. LtdNikita Jangid
The document provides information about the electronics industry and Samsung Electronics. It discusses the history and development of the electronics industry from the 20th century onwards. It details how consumer electronics emerged as a global industry worth billions, and products increasingly used digital technologies and merged with computers. The document also provides an overview of Samsung Electronics, the world's largest technology company, which manufactures electronic components, mobile phones, tablets and other consumer electronics. It discusses Samsung's mission and role as a major player in the global electronics industry.
This document provides a history of foresight activities in the UK government from the 1990s to present day. It discusses three cycles of the UK Foresight Programme from 1994-1999, 2000-2002, and 2002-onwards. It describes how the programme has shifted from using broad panels to a rolling set of focused projects. It also notes the many other foresight activities taking place across different government departments and regions in the UK beyond the central Foresight Programme.
Evolving TRIZ for the Sixth Wave of InnovationNavneet Bhushan
We have already entered or are entering the Sixth wave of Innovation by the year 2020. The current ongoing fifth wave of innovation started in 1990. It was driven by digital networks, software and new media, and is rapidly giving birth to the new wave. This new wave of innovation, we propose will be driven by (a) Networked, Autonomous and Hypersonic – Things, (b) Algorithmic intelligence and (c) Synthesized – Biology, Energy and Reality. However, our methods of thinking and inventing need to evolve in the sixth wave of innovation. TRIZ, that was developed during the 4th wave of innovation (1950-1990) driven by petrochemicals, electronics and aviation, missed its evolution journey in the fifth wave (current wave) that is about to give way to the sixth wave. TRIZ need to evolve by discovering new laws of system evolution and utilizing the “inventive energy” available from the previous five waves of innovation. This talk proposes evolving TRIZ through new laws of system evolution and new tools of System-Function Interactions so that it increases the inventive energy in the sixth wave of innovation.
This document provides an outline for a presentation on science and technology communication by Gensei Ishimura. It introduces Ishimura and his background working in science communication. It then discusses the definition and importance of science and technology communication, providing examples of practices at CoSTEP including science cafes and consensus conferences. It also outlines CoSTEP's education program for training science communicators, which aims to provide students with practical experience alongside theoretical knowledge through a curriculum integrating education, practice, and conceptualization.
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1. Introduction to Foresight
“Designing scientifically possible, economically feasible and socially desirable futures”
Ozcan Saritas
osaritas@hse.ru
2. Some ‘drivers of change’
Printing, gunpowder and the compass have changed the whole
face and state of things throughout the world... (Francis Bacon,
1620).
Improvements in machinery go hand in hand with the division of
labor, and very pretty machines ... facilitate and quicken
production... (Adam Smith, 1776).
The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing
the means of production! (Karl Marx, 1848).
Knowledge is the chief engine of progress in the economy
(Alfred Marshall, 1897).
The entrepreneur and his search for new combinations is the
driving force in all economic development... (Joseph
Schumpeter, 1911).
Science and basic research are incredibly powerful sources of
future economic and societal development... (Vannevar Bush,
1945).
2
3. early Foresight…
• The existence of human on the earth surface: The act of
anticipation as an unavoidable human characteristic
• 16th to 18th centuries: To improve decision making and public debate
and to anticipate long-term trends and long-term implications of shortterm decisions. Wide scope & wide array of issues due to increasing
complexity of societies
• 19th century: The future of capitalist economies by classical political
economists. Following the industrial revolution: Fragmentation of social
studies - more focused and short term orientation of social sciences
4. Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899)
Foresight from the past
http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/category/1890s 4
5. Foresight – ’50s & ’60s
• ‘50s & ‘60s: The principles of trend extrapolation and social indicators,
and the methods of expert analysis (e.g. Delphi & cross-impact). First
computer simulations become well-known
• The efforts were called as forecasting – the activities concerned with
the probabilistic assessment of what is likely to happen in the
future
• Applications in military and large corporations
• The main focus areas were science and engineering
• Carried out with a participation of a limited group of experts and
futurologists
6. Foresight – ’50s & ’60s
United States
•
•
1950s - Early technology forecasting - development of main techniques
1960s - Large forecasting exercises by DOD, US Navy, Field surveys
(astronomy, life sciences)
– Very costly programmes
– Within a closed group – BOGSAT
– Limited participation
7. Foresight – ’50s & ’60s
Exploring Space (1958)
*The first woman in space was
Russian Valentina Tereshkova in 1963.
http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/category/1950s
8. Foresight – ’70s
• the 1970s
– Change in the understanding of forecasting due to the 1973 oilshock
– “Limits to Growth” (Meadows et al., 1972): simple trend analysis
was not enough to understand the complexity of the world, thus
– forecasting tended to be less deterministic
• The future is continued as not the extension of the past
• The underlying assumptions changed that discontinuities
occurred
9. Foresight – ’70s
Japan (National S&T Forecast)
• STA 30-year forecasts - to provide 'holistic' overview. Incorporate economic &
social needs as well as S&T advances. Forecasts normative as well as
predictive
Shell (Corporate Foresight)
• In the 1960s a pioneering team of economists, engineers and scientists had
started work on Shell’s first scenarios on how the future might unfold and the
impact this could have on the company. By 1973 they had shared these early
scenarios with Shell’s management, daring them to think the unthinkable:
What if the world faced an oil crisis?
10. Letter to the future (1976)
To the people of the year 2076,
In a hundred years I think the
world will be overpopulated and
people will have to live in
apartments to accommodate
for this. Everything will be able
to be recycled and what little
that can't will be shot out into
space.
11. Foresight – ’80s
•
Multiple futures
– Foresight: to express a wider frame to consider alternative futures and to
create actions to get to the desired goal
– La prospective: the multiplicity of the future
PRODUCT/
CODIFIED
OUTPUT
Mixed
PROCESS/
NETWORK, TACIT
OUTCOMES
12. Foresight – ’80s
• France: Experiments with Foresight (e.g. National Colloquium on Research &
Technology)
• Sweden, Canada, Australia: Initiatives by government ministries, research
funding agencies and industry - mixed experiences
• UK, Germany: Little or no foresight
• US
– Late 1980s - upsurge of interest in foresight due to concerns about
competitiveness. Foresight exercises to identify lists of 'Critical
Technologies' (such as by DOD, Dep't of Commerce, industrial associations)
• Netherlands
– Ministry of Economic Affairs - Foresight exercises
Ministry of Education and Science - Foresight Steering Committee
(+ Ministry of Agriculture - Foresight programme in 1990s)
13. Shopping in the future (1981)
A store of the future is more like a warehouse than a shop of
today. The robots serve people who call up the store on their
home computers. This robot is showing a bunch of bananas to a
video camera, which transmits a picture of the fruit to a customer.
It places the purchases in a box which is then delivered to the
customer's home.
http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/category/1980s
14. Foresight - ’90s
• Foresight for S&T policy making by government, industry and
other organisations
• The key elements of Foresight in the 1990s:
– S&T is central focus
– Systematic process
– Longer timeframe than in existing S&T planning
– S&T in relation to economic and social developments
• “Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to
look into the longer term future of science, technology, the
economy, and society with the aim of identifying areas of
strategic research and the emerging new technologies likely to
yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995).
15. Foresight - ’90s
Germany
• ISI and BMFT Projektträeger
• 30-Year Delphi surveys of S&T - collaboration with Japan
• Other foresight exercises (regional, industrial etc.)
• Futur initiative – involvement of full range of stakeholders
France
• Ministry of Industry - identification of 'key technologies'
• Ministry for HE & Research - Delphi survey
• Other lower-level foresight e.g. at regional level
UK
• 1994-95 - National Technology Foresight Programme - identified 27 generic S&T
priorities + 18 infrastructure priorities
Process benefits substantial - addressed areas of UK weakness
• 1999-2000 - Second Foresight Programme
• 2002-date – new form of Foresight focusing on specific areas
16. Carnucopia (1993)
According to the company
Empruve, this futuristic
multimedia device from 1993,
"will become as much an
integral part of our lives as the
telephone, the television, the
typewriter and the book." The
photo and its caption (below)
were found in the
book Understanding
Hypermedia (Predicted price:
$4,000 and $5,000)
http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/category/1990s
17. Foresight – 2000s
• Change in the S&T dominated appearance with increasing
concerns on social aspects due to:
– The increasing importance of innovation (both
technological and organisational)
– The development of service economies.
Considerable portions of economic activity, employment
and output have started taking place in service sectors
of the economy
– Other developments including globalisation, changes
in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and
environmental affairs
– Recognition of the close relationship between S&T
and society
18. Foresight
• “the application of
– ‘systematic’,
– ‘participatory’,
– ‘future-intelligencegathering and medium-tolong-term vision building
process’ to
– ‘informing present-day
decisions and mobilising
joint actions’”
19. Foresight – 2000s
The evolution of Foresight is ongoing...
•
Foresight is distributed and embedded at multiple levels due to the
distributed nature of the innovation system. In a distributed system,
knowledge acquisition is much more about the ability (e.g. of a firm) to scan
and draw upon outside sources of technology and to manage partnerships.
•
The efforts are not centrally managed or controlled. This type of activity
does not refer to any single exercise (where the whole landscape was covered
in one single exercise) but rather to a landscape marked by a rich variety of
distributed exercises focused upon the visionary needs of particular
organisations, communities, spaces.
•
S&T is still a major area of activity of most programmes.
20. National Foresight – 2000s
Disconnection of
STI from socioeconomic problems
Lack of funding
for STI
Creative and disturbing
encouraging innovation
Links STI to wider issues
signalling its relevance
Short-term
thinking
Low industrial
STI intensity
Forward-looking building
future-proofing and agility
Weak STI planning
capabilities
Brain
drain
Disconnection of
science from
innovation
Little
interdisciplinarity
Discursive enabling
strategic conversations
System linkages
failures
Transparent structured process
providing legitimate priorities
Participative bringing
in new perspectives
Builds consensus increasing
likelihood of implementation
Implementation
failures
21. Regional Foresight – 2000s
•
Variable rationales. But some arguments for Regional Foresight include:
– Growing importance of regional identities and regions as social and
economic units
– Regions often lack the inclusive and forward-looking institutions to
cope with the profound changes they face
– Break-down barriers, articulate long-term visions, and explicate their
present-day implications
22. Corporate Foresight – 2000s
Some of the rationales for Corporate Foresight
Anticipatory intelligence, i.e. providing background
information and an early warning of recent developments
Direction setting, i.e. establishing broad guidelines for
the corporate strategy
Determining priorities, i.e. identifying the most
desirable lines of R&D as a direct input into specific
(funding) decisions
Strategy formulation, i.e. participating in the
formulation and implementation of strategic decisions
Innovation catalysing, i.e. stimulating and supporting
innovation processes between the different partners
23. Supra-national Foresight – 2000s
Supra-national (Regional) initiatives in the sense of Foresight initiatives taken by a group
of countries which together form a region.
Rationales:
24. European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN)
Foresight exercises per region
European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN, 2008)
24
31. Foresight – 2010s?
• New global context and new drivers of change
– Increased financial, trade and investment flows
– Rapid and accelerating technological progress;
ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies
– New international regulations and standards on
trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual
property rights
– New systems to design, produce, distribute, and
manage products and services
– Global value chains and production networks
34. “Techno-school”
• Teaching how to learn
• Avatar teachers,
assistants
• Virtual reality supported
classes
• Learning by doing
• Assessment of the
“whole life experience”
without exams
• Career guidance based
on data analysis
35. “3-D shop”
• Create, scan, print
technology
• 3-D metal and
plastic printing
• Distributed, just-intime and clean
production
• Minimum storage
and logistics
• Energy efficient,
clean working and
living environment
36. “Eco-farm”
•
High technology
“precision farming”
•
Remotely operated
GPS-enabled vehicles /
equipments
•
Plant and soil sensors
•
Automated watering
and fertilizing
•
Enhanced food with
increased productivity
and increased nutrition
•
Consumer oriented
transparent production
37. “Future-office”
•
Foresight and creative
uncertainty management
•
Real time information
collection and decisionmaking technologies
•
Enhanced machines and
human
•
Pro-Technology vs. AntiTechnology movements
•
Socio-technological
studies
•
Digital arts and creativity
38. “Personal healthcare” practice
•
Personal Health
Systems (medicine,
electronics & ICTs)
•
Wearable technologies
•
Real time monitoring
systems with body
sensors
•
Automated prescription
systems
•
Healthy people, low
health expenditures
39. Foresight and systems
What is
feasible?
Technology
& Economics
What is
possible?
Science &
Ecology
Systemic
Foresight
What is
desirable?
Socioeconomics
Politics & Values
42. Key questions to be answered
What kind of developments will occur?
Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones
harmful?
How soon may these developments occur?
What might be the first signs that these developments are
happening?
Where and how might the leading indications of impeding
change be seen?
Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications?
What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by
these indications?
Who needs to know about these impending changes?
42
43. Foresight vs. Forecasting
What kind of developments will occur?
Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones
harmful?
How soon may these developments occur?
What might be the first signs that these developments are
happening?
Where and how might the leading indications of impeding
change be seen?
Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications?
What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by
these indications?
Who needs to know about these impending changes?
43
44. Systemic Foresight methodology
Intelligence
Imagination
Impact
Interaction
Integration
Intervention
Interpretation
Ref: Saritas, O. (2013). Systemic Foresight Methodology,
Foresight and Science, Technology and Innovation Policies:
Best Practices, D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, and A. Sokolov and
eds. Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 83-117.
Intelligence
– Creates shared understanding and mutual
appreciation of issues at hand
Imagination
– The input from scanning is synthesised into
conceptual models of the situations involved in the
real world
Integration
– Analyses the alternative models of the future and
‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations
among system actors and stakeholders, to create an
agreed model of the future
Interpretation
– Translates future visions into long-, medium-, and
short-term actions for a successful change
programme
Intervention
– Creates plans to inform present day decisions for
immediate change to provide structural and
behavioural transformations
Impact
– Assesses the results and impacts of Foresight
exercise, learns from experience and
provides
input for next round