2009 Freightvision Miles

Driving and Delivering Foresight: Why? How? What for? Ian Miles MIoIR, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, UK [email_address]

Definitions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Looking ahead – for significant things Relating future opportunities and threats to current capabilities and strategies We all do this : but how systematically? How long –term and challenging? Using what resources and pooled resources? How embedded into culture? into action?

A Paradox? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A Paradox? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Not Really! Crisis economy: more sorts of knowledge relevant to sustainable recovery Policy Technology External factors Denial: ignore “weak” signals Environment Energy Finance Knowledge-driven economy: more sorts of knowledge about a wider range of issues Technologies Markets Globalisation

Foresight – 1990s on ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],National (and other mainly government-funded programmes emerged in Europe mid-1990s. Common elements are that Foresight: Foresigh t in Science John Irvine and Ben Martin “”””””””””””””””

Contemporary Foresight Programmes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Three Main Components Beyond the usual suspects: distributed knowledge and governance Beyond the ivory tower: analysis for (and with) policy users, within policy processes Beyond the business plan : responding to longer-term, boundary-crossing issues. Prospectives Planning Participation

Why has Foresight taken off? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Uses of Foresight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Deliverables, reports Decisions, connections

How? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Intelligent Infrastructure Futures OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT

How? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Throughout: networking, knowledge exchange, coordination - not just dissemination

What Foresight can and cannot Achieve ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Freight varies much more across Scenarios than Passenger Transport Road remains dominant, though other modes grow

UK Foresight Programme Accepting of integrated intelligent infrastructure Low impact transport High impact transport Resistant to integrated intelligent infrastructure Intelligent Infrastructure Futures OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT

2009 Freightvision Miles

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2009 Freightvision Miles