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IFI - Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation
The document discusses the importance and evolution of foresight in science, technology, and innovation, emphasizing its role in policy-making, resource optimization, and strategic vision building. It contrasts forecasting with foresight, detailing various methodologies and practices used globally, including in Russia. The text also highlights the need for stakeholder engagement and the analysis of global trends to address complex future challenges.
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IFI - Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation
- 1. Foresight for Science, Technology& Innovation - ForSTI Dr. Ozcan Saritas osaritas@hse.ru National Research University Higher School of Economics
- 2. 2 Why are weconcerned about Foresight? Setting priorities Optimizing resource use Building visions Thinking out of the box Detecting Weak Signals of emerging trends Giving lead time for innovators Enabling innovation Preparing for Wild Cards Exploring alternative futures Formulating policies & strategies Networking stakeholders Mutual learning Collecting intelligence Making evidence-based decisions Simply because it is too costly not to do so!!!
- 3. 3 What is Foresight? “theapplication of ‘systematic’, ‘participatory’, ‘future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision building process’ to ‘informing present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions’”
- 4. 4 Forecasting vs. ‘Foresight’ Futures thinking: Single vs. Multiple Nature of situations: Simple, Complicated vs. Complex Nature of systems: Technological and Economic only vs. STEEPV Nature of problems & approaches: Positivist vs. Constructivist & Critical Level of participation: Expert driven vs. participative & inclusive Level of uncertainty & Time horizons: Low uncertainty, short term vs. High uncertainty, long term Taking into account of Wild Cards / Surprises / Shocks: No contingency vs. High contingency Use of techniques: Quantitative vs. Quan. & Qual. and their combinations
- 5. 5 Evolution of Foresightpractice Early Foresight 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s Future Beginning of Civilization Post World War Recurrent oil shocks Emergence of Innovation as an economic driver Economic crises & climate change, energy, and security issues S&T as a strategic instrument with economic & social benefits Increasing frequency of disasters, shocks, surprises Rapid technological advancements
- 6. 6 Foresight from thepast Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899) http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/category/1890s 6
- 7. 7 Trends in theuse of ForSTI methods 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 technology foresight Scenario analysis Delphi method Perfect foresight Technology forecasting Strategic foresight Decision making Technology road map Mental time travel System Dynamics Models hindsight bias game theory multi-criteria decision analysis policy analysis risk assessment science and technology policy Simulation bibliometric analysis Adaptive foresight Emerging technology Expert panel Weak signal Text mining Case study cluster analysis Network analysis nonlinear systems patent analysis Stochastic model trend research Autobiographical memory Early warning Horizon scanning Megatrends path dependence priority setting Survey agent-based modeling Analytic hierarchy process cross-impact analysis Dynamic programming Future-oriented technology analysis Metacognition monitoring Neuroimaging Portfolio management Strategic decision making workshop Alternative futures Bayesian estimation Benchmarking benefit-cost analysis content analysis Evidence-based policy Saritas, O. and Burmaoglu, S. (2015). The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output, Scientometrics, 105, 1, 497-508.
- 8. 8Saritas, O. andBurmaoglu, S. (2015). The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output, Scientometrics, 105, 1, 497-508. 1991-2000 2001-2010 2010-present Integration of ForSTI methods
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- 10. Sectors focused Scope ofForesight activities 10
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- 12. 1990 1992 19941996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Pre Foresight Technology Foresight – Foresight First Cycle Foresight Second Cycle Foresight Third Cycle ???? Office of S&T (1992-2006) of Science & Innovation (2006-7) Located: till 1995 Cabinet Office Department of Trade and Industry till 2006 Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills till 2007.. Office of Chief Scientist D.E.S. Science Office Govt. Office for Science. Located: Department of Business, Innovation & Skills Party in Power: Coalition: Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair to 2007, then Brown) Con-Dem Three cycles of Foresight in the UK 12
- 13. Foresight Horizon Scanning UK Foresight -organizational structure 13
- 14. © Copyright HigherSchool of Economics , Moscow 2013 14 UK Foresight - completed projects
- 15. S&T Foresight System •Evidence -basedanalysis •Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods •Prioritizing •Communication and networking •Stakeholder engagement •Integration to policy Global Challenges Grand Responses Demand for new skills Policy mix New economic paradigm New instruments for STI policy Changing society Multidisciplinary and multicultural research Changing National Innovation Systems Enhancing Infrastructure, networks Changing global value chains and traditional leaders Globalization vs localization Increasing influence of technologies Russian Foresight system 15
- 16. Evolution of Foresightactivities in Russia – with a boost 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142006 2007 Critical technologies (national) S&T Foresight 2025 S&T Foresight 2030 STI priorities for natural resources Foresight for nanoindustry markets Foresight for ICT and mass-media 2030 STI priorities for Bashkortostan STI priorities for Moscow STI priorities for Samara Tomsk innovation infrastructure STI priorities for Tula Regional clusters Roadmap for power engineering equipment Sectoral roadmaps for new materials (space, aircraft, nuclear energy) Roadmap for medicine & pharmaceutical industry Roadmap for water purification Roadmap for composite materials Roadmaps for energy efficiency Roadmaps for oil & gas sector: upstream & downstream Roadmaps for technology platforms Programmes of innovative development of state-owned companies: priorities, roadmaps, technology audit, et al. Foresight for shipbuilding Critical technologies (national) Software – Interaction with expert network Online database on global technology trends Software – Interactive technology roadmaps Demand for future skills Foresight for civil society Federal level Regional level Sectoral and corporate level Foresight infrastructure 1996 – 1997: Initiation of Foresight projects in Russia (HSE team) Roadmap for space navigation S&T Foresight for aircraft sector Concept of a roadmap for automotive industry: FCVRoadmap for LED manufacturing Regional Foresight (education) 2015-2018 National technology Foresight system Critical technologies (national) S&T Foresight 2040 Roadmaps for aviation Sectoral Foresight systems Critical technologies (sectoral) Network of sectoral S&T Foresight centres Foresight for National universities (5/100) Evolution of Foresight activities in Russia 16
- 17. Russian S&T Foresightsystem Russian S&T Foresight Forecast of socioeconomic development Budget forecast Socioeconomic development strategy for Russia Strategic goals and priorities of socioeconomic and S&T development (President’s addresses) Strategies for macroregions State S&T development programme Strategic Foresight Priority S&T areas and critical technologies for Russia Spatial development strategies Programmes for regional clusters Regionallevel Sectoral strategies Sectoral S&T priorities and critical technologies Sectoral S&T Foresight studies Sectorallevel State regional programmes Companies’ programmes and target documents Strategic R&D programmes for technology platforms Technology roadmaps Sectoral state programmes Nationallevel Russian S&T Foresight system 17
- 18. More than 150global trends in the economy, science, politics and society Assessments of effects and periods of maximal manifestation of challenges and windows of opportunities More than 1000 specific priority R&D tasks Characteristi cs of more than 80 prospective markets and 250 product groups Priority S&T areas Key sectors of the economy Publications Russian Foresight outputs 18
- 19. 19 Global Trends Growing up:global demand for products and services Getting scarce: water, food, energy, natural resources Gaining value: scarce resources become more expensive as they are finite and shared Giving rise to: sustainability and security concerns problems with potential social, economic and political conflicts Going technological: Advancements in STI and increasing public and private R&D are providing opportunities for addressing global challenges
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- 23. 23 A set ofambitious goals for 2030
- 24. 24 ForSTI: a systemicprocess Miles, I., Saritas, O. and Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer Verlag, Berlin. Initiation: establishing the purpose of the activity, its scope and intended uses and users, and the resources that are available Intelligence: Scanning the focal object and its context, establishing basic knowledge about trends, about the results of other studies and the views of major stakeholders, etc. Imagination: Involving efforts to grasp the underlying dynamics of the focal object, to map and model it for the future Integration: Delineating and appraising possible futures that can arise from the dynamics considered Interpretation: Examining the implications of the analysis, and suggesting relevant strategies and priorities for achieving the major objectives of the sponsor and other stakeholders Intervention: Communicating these interpretations and steps that follow to key actors Impact: Evaluating the extent to which the ForSTI activity has achieved its objectives and been of use, and examining follow-up and the scope for embedding such activity in the organisations concerned Interaction: an activity that early on particularly involves recruitment of stakeholders, and later engages them in participation in successive phases of the process
- 25. 25 A Systemic Foresightprocess Initiation Intelligence Imagination Integration Intervention Impact Interaction Horizon Scanning Literature review Big Data & STI mining Social Network Analysis Systems Mapping Scenario Planning ModellingGaming Delphi Multi-criteria analysis Success scenarios SWOT analysis Visioning Roadmapping Backcasting Strategic planning Critical/key technologies Forecasting Scoping Priority-setting Policy assessment Survey Interviews OR methods Stakeholder mapping Expert panels Workshops Action planning Environmental Scanning Voting Polling Indicators Brainstorming Interpretation FORSTAR – Foresight process & methods Miles, I., Saritas, O. and Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer Verlag, Berlin.
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- 28. 28 Using Big Datafor Foresight Data is our major asset!!! Analysis of scientific literature & media Patent analysis Big data intelligent analysis system – intelligent FOResight Analytics (iFORA) Scientific publications > 2 mln Scientific articles > 10,000 Research fronts Experts > 10,000 Patents > 500,000 Analytical reports & Forecasts > 50,000 News feeds > 1000 International conferences > 150 Combination of quantitative & qualitative methods Analysis of networks & clusters Focus groups and in- depth interviews Biblio-/Sciento-metric analysis Semantics & Text mining Expert consultations STEEPV analysis Funding NSF, DARPA, EC, ESRC… Stock Exchange DJ, FTSE, NIKKEI… Mergers & Acquisitions Thomson Reuters
- 29. 29 How the Victoriansinvented the future… http://aeon.co/magazine/society/how-the-victorians-imagined-and-invented-the-future/
- 30. 30 Second mission ofForesight: Analyzing wider impacts of change Revolutions in machinery, manufacturing & transportation Slum days, many suffered ill health due to starvation in Victorian Britain, such as these London children in 1860… Enormous expansion of rail and telegraph lines, unprecedented movement of people and ideas, a new wave of globalization and destruction… Increased access to goods and services stress on natural resources, demographic change & the emergence of megacities… 1st Industrial revolution 2nd 3rd
- 31. 31 The 4th IndustrialRevolution: Some consequences – a day in Futurama!
- 32. 32 Unexpected consequences! Knightscope claimsthe security robot is better than a human guard, because it never gets bored of its job but!!
- 33. 33 Science & Ecology Technology & Economics Socioeconomics Politics& Values What is possible? What is desirable? What is feasible? Systemic Foresight
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