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D.E.C., Tallinn, 16.06.17
Modern Measurement & Applied Machine Learning
• Group CIO, Member Strategic Leadership Committee, Head of DNA by NetBooster
• Economist, years of Digital Strategies Consulting
• Entrepreneurship with +5 startups, incl. I Co-Founded Scandinavia’s first two
GACP/360 and Google Enterprise accredited companies, The Milk and AppsPeople.
• Chairman of Digital Analytics Association Denmark (2006-2009) Member @ DAA
Research Committee. Board member @ Association of Danish Digital Agencies
(ADDA), and advisor to several startups. Member of Board of directors at NASDAQ
listed Apps company.
• I’ve worked on Data Science, Intelligence & Analytics projects with global clients
incl. 3M, Accor Hotels, Adidas, Chanel, Hermès, Peugeot-Citroën, The Red Cross,
Deutsche Telekom, Hi3G and many many more.
• And I like to run in the mountains in Switzerland where I’ve lived with my family for
two year now…
ABOUT KRISTOFFER
Let’s talk: @Kewald
MY CONTEXT…
“Knowledge beats Data”
@kewald, 2017
“Knowledge is power”
Francis Bacon,1605
“Data beats opinion”
Kaushik, 2014
DATA
WE ARE ABOUT
SINCE 2004
Performance
WE ARE ABOUT
SINCE 2004
WE ARE ABOUT
ACTUALLY IT’S ABOUT
FROM NOW ON
REAL TIME
Powered by
Well at least Machine Learning
A.I.
DATA IS EVERYWHERE
BUT SILOED
CLUETRAIN MANIFESTO (1999)
AND NOT USED IN CONTEXT
THE INSANE INCREASE IN COMPLEXITY
INTEGRATION IS THE CORE
BUT HOW DO YOU BECOME CUTOMER CENTRIC?
PPC
Offline
PoS
Integrated
digital
marketing
planning
Mobile Marketing
Display
Advertising
Affiliate Marketing
CRM
Social Media
Consumer
Insights
Consultancy
SEO
WHERE IS CURRENT MEASUREMENT FLAWED?
Why is so much
data missing?
What
happened in
the past?
What actual
value creation is
the outcome?
Bid?
Budget?
Match type?
Copy?
= A.I. (ohh yeah)
Why on earth
accept “sessions”
when it’s about
Humans! (real
people for now at
least)
WHAT’S THE CHALLENGE?
WHY SHOULD WE ACCEPT
ONLY AGGREGATED DATA?
GO BEYOND
PREDEFINED
METRICS/DIMENSIONS
USE ANALYTICS TO MEASURE
FORGET SESSIONS
USER KNOWLEDGE IS AT THE CORE OF YOUR
SUCCESS (AND GREAT TECH/SCIENCE)
YOUR CHALLENGE
WHAT DRIVES OUR BUSINESS?
It’s not (first) a tech discipline – First of all it’s a business
strategy and needs to be executed via agile tactics. Then the
concept of Customer Lifetime Value needs to be reconsidered
Know the consumer
Integrated approach
Brand DNA
Business strategy
Consistently know the consumer and maintain a
relevant dialogue with her hugely increase your
business performance
An integrated approach will unify data and consumer
information across all digital touch points and keep it natively
owned over long periods across products, markets and brands.
In essence it’s the brands DNA to know it’s
consumers well
Customer Lifetime Value
CLV is hugely flawed: it’s not including context,
velocity and future
THE OLD APPROACH
22.12 24.12 28.12
Adwords click ->
No conversion
Link* ->
No conversion
Direct visit ->
Conversion
In this situation the visit with the booking would not be part of the extracted data, Adwords would look like no
value was created.
* "Link" could be from email, banner, affiliate etc. (assumes no GA campaign tagging. Current analysis done by
filtering on CID's).
Data extract
GA Standard Reports - Date range with no conversion
22.12 24.12 28.12
Adwords click ->
No conversion
Link* ->
No conversion
Direct visit ->
Conversion
In this situation the visit with the booking would be part of the extracted data and give the credit to the
Link since standard reports ignore direct visits that follow after a non-direct visit up to 6 months before.
Data extract
GA Standard Reports - Date range includes conversion
22.12 24.12 28.12
Adwords click ->
No conversion
Link* ->
No conversion
Direct visit ->
Conversion
Last = 1 Direct
First = 1 Adwords
Even = 0,33 Direct + 0,33 Link + 0,33 Adwords
Decay = 0,6 Direct + 0,2 Link + 0,1 Adwords (weights just for illustration)
Note: Multi Touch reports only includes customer journeys that ended in a transaction in the analysed
period.
Multi Touch has
up to 30 days
lookback
GA Cross channel analysis
In Multi-touch
Direct is a
channel
NOW WE GOT MULTI CHANNEL AND GROUPING
THE BETTER APPROACH
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
COOKIES DIE AND GO TO THE ETERNAL BIT FIELDS ;)
WE LEARN TO SAY: DEVICE GRAPHS
AND AT SOME POINT: WE LEARN TO DECLARE OUR PREFERENCES
(LATER MAYBE WE JUST TALK ABOUT PEOPLE VS BRAND)
THE GOOGLE STACK IS A PLATFORM
WHAT’S NEXT?
WHAT’S NEXT?
WHAT’S NEXT?
CLOUD PUB/SUB
CLOUD DATAFLOW
DATAPREP WITH APPLIED AI (AKA CLOUD DATA PREP)
OUR RESPONSE: MACHINE LEARNING
Acquisition Retention
Paid Search
Social Advertising
Display Advertising
Affiliate Marketing
Facebook Custom Audiences
Twitter Tailored Audiences
Google Customer Match
Email Marketing
Call Center
SMS
Push Notifications
Input to train with
• Bid
• Budget
• Copy
• And later many
more…
CALCULATE NEW KPI’S
5 suggested new KPIs:
• Annual Opportunity
• Predicted future total value
• User Velocity
• Core consumer fit score
• Loyalty propensity
AND UNSUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING
Source:@mertanen
Consumer knowledge &
consumer data at the heart of
our thoughts and actions
CONSISTENT DATA-DRIVEN STRATEGY
FROM MULTIPLE SILOS…
De-duplication
Reachability
Memory
CRM Mobile Social Paid …
TO A UNIFIED CONSUMER VISION
Many interactions, 4 visits, any channel
 1 unique person
CRM Mobile Social Paid
Data
combination
Segmentation
Assumptions
Targeting
Revenue
Synchronised and unified data
…
TO A UNIFIED CUSTOMER VISION
Many interactions, 4 visits, any channel
 1 unique person
CRM Mobile Social Paid
Data
combination
Segmentation
Assumptions
Targeting
Revenue
Synchronised and unified data
…
DEMO
OMG, yes, I’m actually going to live demo…
THE TIME IS ALWAYS NOW ;)
Paid Media AlwaysIn-HomeOwnedEarned In-Store
Collect, synchronize, wrangle and analyse and predict
to build the new stronger knowledge which will put you ahead of
your competition by real-time use across all the touches over actual
lifetimes to allow humans and brands to have a dialogue!
DISCLAIMER
▪ “The material in this presentation is general background information prepared by metapeople Benelux B.V.. This
information is given in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. This presentation, including forecast
financial information should not be considered as advice or recommendation to investors or potential investors in
relation to acquiring, selling or transfer by any means metapeople’s securities. Before acting on any information
included into this presentation, one should consider the appropriateness of the information, any relevant offer
document and especially should seek for independent advice.
▪ This presentation may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding our intent, belief or current
expectations with respect to metapeople’s businesses and operations, market conditions, results of operation and
financial condition, specific provisions and risk management practices. These statements are based on the current
expectations and assumptions of metapeople’s management and they are, therefore, subject to risks and
uncertainties. Many factors can impact metapeople’s results and performance, thus forecasts and hypothetical
examples are subject to uncertainty and contingencies outside metapeople’s control. Results and performance can
be materially different from any future results or performance that may be expressed or implied by the forward
looking statements contained in this presentation. metapeople does not undertake to implement any of the actions
and operations that may be described in the forward looking statements. Moreover, we remind you that past
performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.”
62
THANK YOU!
PING ME FOR SLIDES:
@KEWALD

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Kristoffer Ewald - Modern Measurement Strategies

  • 1. D.E.C., Tallinn, 16.06.17 Modern Measurement & Applied Machine Learning
  • 2. • Group CIO, Member Strategic Leadership Committee, Head of DNA by NetBooster • Economist, years of Digital Strategies Consulting • Entrepreneurship with +5 startups, incl. I Co-Founded Scandinavia’s first two GACP/360 and Google Enterprise accredited companies, The Milk and AppsPeople. • Chairman of Digital Analytics Association Denmark (2006-2009) Member @ DAA Research Committee. Board member @ Association of Danish Digital Agencies (ADDA), and advisor to several startups. Member of Board of directors at NASDAQ listed Apps company. • I’ve worked on Data Science, Intelligence & Analytics projects with global clients incl. 3M, Accor Hotels, Adidas, Chanel, Hermès, Peugeot-Citroën, The Red Cross, Deutsche Telekom, Hi3G and many many more. • And I like to run in the mountains in Switzerland where I’ve lived with my family for two year now… ABOUT KRISTOFFER Let’s talk: @Kewald
  • 4. “Knowledge beats Data” @kewald, 2017 “Knowledge is power” Francis Bacon,1605 “Data beats opinion” Kaushik, 2014
  • 8. ACTUALLY IT’S ABOUT FROM NOW ON REAL TIME
  • 9. Powered by Well at least Machine Learning A.I.
  • 12. CLUETRAIN MANIFESTO (1999) AND NOT USED IN CONTEXT
  • 13.
  • 14. THE INSANE INCREASE IN COMPLEXITY
  • 15. INTEGRATION IS THE CORE BUT HOW DO YOU BECOME CUTOMER CENTRIC? PPC Offline PoS Integrated digital marketing planning Mobile Marketing Display Advertising Affiliate Marketing CRM Social Media Consumer Insights Consultancy SEO
  • 16. WHERE IS CURRENT MEASUREMENT FLAWED? Why is so much data missing? What happened in the past? What actual value creation is the outcome? Bid? Budget? Match type? Copy? = A.I. (ohh yeah) Why on earth accept “sessions” when it’s about Humans! (real people for now at least)
  • 17. WHAT’S THE CHALLENGE? WHY SHOULD WE ACCEPT ONLY AGGREGATED DATA?
  • 19. USE ANALYTICS TO MEASURE FORGET SESSIONS
  • 20. USER KNOWLEDGE IS AT THE CORE OF YOUR SUCCESS (AND GREAT TECH/SCIENCE)
  • 21. YOUR CHALLENGE WHAT DRIVES OUR BUSINESS? It’s not (first) a tech discipline – First of all it’s a business strategy and needs to be executed via agile tactics. Then the concept of Customer Lifetime Value needs to be reconsidered Know the consumer Integrated approach Brand DNA Business strategy Consistently know the consumer and maintain a relevant dialogue with her hugely increase your business performance An integrated approach will unify data and consumer information across all digital touch points and keep it natively owned over long periods across products, markets and brands. In essence it’s the brands DNA to know it’s consumers well Customer Lifetime Value CLV is hugely flawed: it’s not including context, velocity and future
  • 23. 22.12 24.12 28.12 Adwords click -> No conversion Link* -> No conversion Direct visit -> Conversion In this situation the visit with the booking would not be part of the extracted data, Adwords would look like no value was created. * "Link" could be from email, banner, affiliate etc. (assumes no GA campaign tagging. Current analysis done by filtering on CID's). Data extract GA Standard Reports - Date range with no conversion
  • 24. 22.12 24.12 28.12 Adwords click -> No conversion Link* -> No conversion Direct visit -> Conversion In this situation the visit with the booking would be part of the extracted data and give the credit to the Link since standard reports ignore direct visits that follow after a non-direct visit up to 6 months before. Data extract GA Standard Reports - Date range includes conversion
  • 25. 22.12 24.12 28.12 Adwords click -> No conversion Link* -> No conversion Direct visit -> Conversion Last = 1 Direct First = 1 Adwords Even = 0,33 Direct + 0,33 Link + 0,33 Adwords Decay = 0,6 Direct + 0,2 Link + 0,1 Adwords (weights just for illustration) Note: Multi Touch reports only includes customer journeys that ended in a transaction in the analysed period. Multi Touch has up to 30 days lookback GA Cross channel analysis In Multi-touch Direct is a channel
  • 26. NOW WE GOT MULTI CHANNEL AND GROUPING
  • 28. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? COOKIES DIE AND GO TO THE ETERNAL BIT FIELDS ;) WE LEARN TO SAY: DEVICE GRAPHS AND AT SOME POINT: WE LEARN TO DECLARE OUR PREFERENCES (LATER MAYBE WE JUST TALK ABOUT PEOPLE VS BRAND)
  • 29. THE GOOGLE STACK IS A PLATFORM
  • 35. DATAPREP WITH APPLIED AI (AKA CLOUD DATA PREP)
  • 36. OUR RESPONSE: MACHINE LEARNING Acquisition Retention Paid Search Social Advertising Display Advertising Affiliate Marketing Facebook Custom Audiences Twitter Tailored Audiences Google Customer Match Email Marketing Call Center SMS Push Notifications Input to train with • Bid • Budget • Copy • And later many more…
  • 37. CALCULATE NEW KPI’S 5 suggested new KPIs: • Annual Opportunity • Predicted future total value • User Velocity • Core consumer fit score • Loyalty propensity
  • 38. AND UNSUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING Source:@mertanen
  • 39. Consumer knowledge & consumer data at the heart of our thoughts and actions CONSISTENT DATA-DRIVEN STRATEGY
  • 41. TO A UNIFIED CONSUMER VISION Many interactions, 4 visits, any channel  1 unique person CRM Mobile Social Paid Data combination Segmentation Assumptions Targeting Revenue Synchronised and unified data …
  • 42. TO A UNIFIED CUSTOMER VISION Many interactions, 4 visits, any channel  1 unique person CRM Mobile Social Paid Data combination Segmentation Assumptions Targeting Revenue Synchronised and unified data …
  • 43. DEMO OMG, yes, I’m actually going to live demo…
  • 44. THE TIME IS ALWAYS NOW ;) Paid Media AlwaysIn-HomeOwnedEarned In-Store Collect, synchronize, wrangle and analyse and predict to build the new stronger knowledge which will put you ahead of your competition by real-time use across all the touches over actual lifetimes to allow humans and brands to have a dialogue!
  • 45. DISCLAIMER ▪ “The material in this presentation is general background information prepared by metapeople Benelux B.V.. This information is given in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. This presentation, including forecast financial information should not be considered as advice or recommendation to investors or potential investors in relation to acquiring, selling or transfer by any means metapeople’s securities. Before acting on any information included into this presentation, one should consider the appropriateness of the information, any relevant offer document and especially should seek for independent advice. ▪ This presentation may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations with respect to metapeople’s businesses and operations, market conditions, results of operation and financial condition, specific provisions and risk management practices. These statements are based on the current expectations and assumptions of metapeople’s management and they are, therefore, subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors can impact metapeople’s results and performance, thus forecasts and hypothetical examples are subject to uncertainty and contingencies outside metapeople’s control. Results and performance can be materially different from any future results or performance that may be expressed or implied by the forward looking statements contained in this presentation. metapeople does not undertake to implement any of the actions and operations that may be described in the forward looking statements. Moreover, we remind you that past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.”
  • 46. 62 THANK YOU! PING ME FOR SLIDES: @KEWALD