Jeff Sauer - Attribution is Bullshit

@jeffalytics
Hi, I’m Jeff and I live out of a suitcase

I took this photo in
Tallinn Last Year

I also saw this
sign in
Tallinn…

Who gets
credit for the
conversion?

Who gets
credit?
Topless
Servers?

Who gets
credit?
False
Advertising?

So I went in
and bought
this beer… it
wasn’t free

@jeffalytics
Wedding in Oregon

@jeffalytics
Beautiful venue
for a wedding

@jeffalytics
Attribution question:
Who gets credit for the
conversion (sale)?

@jeffalytics
I asked that very question to Caleb

Is the Product all
that matters?

@jeffalytics
Their wine sells
out every year

@jeffalytics
5 weddings
booked for 4th of
July weekend
(‘Merica)

@jeffalytics
Growing like
crazy. Don’t care
about attribution.

@jeffalytics
This is how small
businesses treat
their marketing

@jeffalytics
To him, assigning
attribution is bullshit

@jeffalytics
Let’s
investigate

@jeffalytics
Let’s not even go there

@jeffalytics
CRO
Equivalent?
CRO Equivalent:

@jeffalytics
Having no goals at all

@jeffalytics
Last Click Attribution for Conversion
Web Analytics uses a ‘last click’ model

@jeffalytics
AKA The Glengarry Model

@jeffalytics
Many companies follow this blindly

@jeffalytics
The problem? Device Fragmentation

@jeffalytics
Direct gets too much credit!

@jeffalytics
Especially when compared to other models

@jeffalytics
And yet this is the default in every single tool!

@jeffalytics
Even Google plans to kill this model
http://bit.ly/2rgqW0Z

@jeffalytics
Running one test, and assuming ”CRO is Done”

@jeffalytics
51%
51%ofcompaniesover100employeesare
usingdigitalattributionmodelsin2016.
Source:eMarketerOct,2015

@jeffalytics
First Click Attribution for Conversion
If last click is so bad, what about ‘first click’?

@jeffalytics
The First Internet commenter of models

@jeffalytics
Not necessarily an achievement

@jeffalytics
Linear Attribution for Conversion
Ok, make everything equal!

@jeffalytics
This is like the millennials of attribution

@jeffalytics
Position Based Attribution for Conversion
Ok, then let’s compromise

@jeffalytics
The non-offensive approach

@jeffalytics
Time Decay Attribution for Conversion
The time-based approach

@jeffalytics
This is boring, but makes logical sense

@jeffalytics
Custom Attribution Model
You can even create a custom model

@jeffalytics
Test these models
in Google
Analytics

@jeffalytics
Compare multiple models in Google Analytics

@jeffalytics
Customize your channel definitions

@jeffalytics
And see what model fits you best

@jeffalytics
Each website will have different results

@jeffalytics
There is no
perfect model

@jeffalytics
Coming Soon: Google Attribution (Data Driven)
Google Attribution Announcement: http://bit.ly/GoogleAttribution2017

@jeffalytics
Warning: This
represents a
Google-heavy world

@jeffalytics
Tune for Mobile Attribution
https://www.tune.com/

@jeffalytics
Bizible for B2B Attribution
https://www.bizible.com/

@jeffalytics
Bright Funnel for Sales Organizations
http://www.brightfunnel.com/

@jeffalytics
Convertro for Online and Offline Attribution
https://www.convertro.com/

@jeffalytics
CRO Equivalent: Segmentation
Peep talks about the importance of Segmentation: https://youtu.be/7K5IJ_Uv5qQ

@jeffalytics
84%
84%ofmarketerslistassociatingconversions
withmarketingasatopdigitalpriority
Source:Econsultancy,September14,2016

@jeffalytics
10%
10%ofcompanieshavethiscapability
Source:Econsultancy,September14,2016

@jeffalytics
In other words,
attribution is
hard!

@jeffalytics
Complexity of
attribution strategy
= complexity of
marketing strategy

@jeffalytics
Should you
develop a custom
attribution
program? Maybe.

@jeffalytics
How custom
attribution works
(Case Study)

Objective
Optimize Marketing
Spend to Grow Profit
Marketing Strategy
Strategic multi-channel
media buys
Industry
Consumer Goods
Company size
$140MM in Revenue

@jeffalytics
2014 Sales 2015 Sales Sales Change
Total Revenue $146,000,000 $173,200,000 $27,200,000
Marketing Driven Sales $43,946,000 $64,776,800 $20,830,800
Sales Increased by $27MM, with $20MM
coming from marketing attribution

Goal 3
Increase ROI on all
marketing programs
Model Used
Custom attribution
model
Goal 2
Only spend in the most
efficient mediums
Goal 1
Increase sales through
targeted media

@jeffalytics
All Marketing Television Promotions Online Print Radio
2014 Sales Contribution 30.1% 15.0% 7.0% 4.2% 0.9% 3.0%
2015 Sales Contribution 37.4% 17.9% 9.0% 6.8% 2.7% 1.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Acting on Attribution data to grow sales %

@jeffalytics
2014 Marketing 2015 Marketing
Marketing Budget $23,000,000 $25,000,000
Marketing Revenue $43,946,000 $64,776,800
ROI 191% 259%
Slight budget increase, ROI soared!

@jeffalytics
Attribution lift can
be as big as CRO

@jeffalytics
My favorite attribution resource
Kevin Hillstrom’s MineThatData - http://blog.minethatdata.com/

@jeffalytics
Investing in a CRO agency partner

@jeffalytics
Caleb Winery Tour Jeff's Reco Salesperson
The salesperson gets last
interaction credit
Who gets credit for the sale?
Caleb Winery Tour Jeff Salesperson
Jeff gets credit in a last non-
direct world
Caleb gets credit in a first
click world
Everyone gets some credit
with a Linear model

@jeffalytics
If I built a custom model, it would be…
Custom model to assign credit

@jeffalytics
But really - it’s the bride, of course!

@jeffalytics
See… Attribution is
bullshit.
But is it worth your
time anyway?

@jeffalytics#adwexp
NO
Less than 100 conversions
Is attribution worth your time?

@jeffalytics#adwexp
MAYBE
More than 100 conversions
and strong online focus
NO

@jeffalytics#adwexp
YES
More than 10,000 conversions +
online and offline data sources
MAYBE
More than 100 conversions
and strong online focus
NO

@jeffalytics
Do you need attribution?
Take the quiz:
jeffalytics.com/attribution

Aitäh!
Jeff Sauer
Analytics Teacher and
Consultant
Email: jeff@jeffalytics.com
Links to resources & quiz:
bit.ly/elitecamp17

Jeff Sauer - Attribution is Bullshit

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