Keynote presentation at GEORG Geothermal Workshop, Nov. 24, 2016
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This is a keynote presentation, I gave at the GEORG Geothermal Workshop in Reykjavik/ Iceland on November 24, 2016. It was held as part of my role as President of the International Geothermal Association with data from my activities at ThinkGeoEnergy.
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Keynote presentation at GEORG Geothermal Workshop, Nov. 24, 2016
- 1. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY AND ITS ROLE IN THE FUTURE ENERGY MIX INTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION 2016 GEORG GEOTHERMAL WORKSHOP REYKJAVIK/ ICELAND– 24 NOVEMBER 2016
- 2. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY INTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION
- 3. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY INTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION • Scientific, educational and cultural organization with nearly 5,000 members in over 65 countries. • Non-political, non-profit, non-governmental organization with consultative status to the UN and special observer status to the Green Climate Fund. • Objectives: - Encouraging research, the development and utilization of geothermal resources worldwide through the publication of scientific and technical information among the geothermal specialists, the business community, governmental representatives, UN organisations, civil society and the general public. - Encourage, facilitate and, promote the coordination of activities related to worldwide research, development and application of geothermal resources. • Founded in 1988, IGA Secretariat is located in Bochum, Germany at the International Geothermal Centre of the Bochum University of Applied Sciences.
- 4. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY INTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION • Mission & vision • Activities & visibility • Representation • Operation & funding • Path forward
- 5. TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY - MWE (NOV 2016) 835 537 665 676 775 926 944 980 1,375 1,868 3,567 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Other Japan Iceland Kenya Turkey Mexico Italy New Zealand Indonesia Philippines United States Source: TGE Research (2016), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), Enerji Atlasi (2016) 1 GW Geothermal Country Club
- 6. 1,364 8 944 665 980 926 676 775 1,868 3,567 1,375 2,787 987 145 575 285 481 1,037 1022 1,651 1,272 4,013 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Other Ethiopia Italy Iceland New Zealand Mexico Kenya Turkey Philippines United States Indonesia Installed Projects & permitted 6Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2016), GEA (2016), IGA (2015) TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MWE (NOV 2016) 1 GW Geothermal Country Club
- 7. GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL POWER GENERATION POTENTIAL 7 Sources: ThinkGeoEnergy, Geothermal Energy Association, IGA, Chevron Note: Installed Capacity of 2016 [2015], resource estimates combined (1999-2012) – IGA estimates a conservative total potential of 70,000 MW and with technology improvements (extended use of low heat and EGS resources) at around 140,000 MW in power generation capacity. Current installed capacity Projects & inferred resources High temperature regions Resource estimates Installed Resources North America 4,447 32,200 6,447 Installed Resources Cent. America & Caribbean 522 27,400 618 Installed Resources Europe 1,642 3,400 1,271 Installed Resources Africa 676 11,600 2,249 Installed Resources South America 1 30,800 730 Installed Resources Asia 4,568 70,884 7,868 Installed Resources Aus., NZ & Pacific 1,010 7,700 666 Installed Resources Middle East 775 2,550 1,022
- 8. TURKEY GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY 1984-2016 15 15 23 23 30 77 94 114 162 311 405 624 775 66 419 580 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Source: Enerji Atlasi (2016) 1 GW Geothermal Country Club
- 9. but …
- 11. Source: Tesla Motors – Tweet of 22 November 2016
- 12. CLIMATE INVESTMENT POTENTIAL – AN IFC ANALYSIS INVESTMENT POTENTIAL BY SECTOR ($ BILLION) Source: IFC Analysis, “Climate Investment Potential in Emerging Markets” (2016) Based on: IFC “Climate investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets” (2016) Solar 939 Wind 588 Biomass 119 Geothermal 63 Small Hydro 56 Investment Potential by Sector ($ billion)
- 13. TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY - MWE (NOV 2016) Let’s not despair though ...
- 14. ESTIMATED LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION U.S. WEIGHTED AVERAGE LCOE (2015 $/ MWH) 63.7 58.2 50.9 39.5 99.7 93.6 105.4 55.8 56.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 Hydroelectric Solar PV Wind - Onshore Geothermal Advanced Nuclear Natural gas - adv. comb. turb. Natural Gas - conv. comb. turbine Natural Gas - adv. comb. cycle Natural Gas - conv. comb. cycle Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO2016 Levelized Costs (August 2016) For plants entering service in 2022 Dispatchable Technologies Non-Dispatchable Technologies
- 15. 1,364 8 944 665 980 926 676 775 1,868 3,567 1,375 2,787 987 145 575 285 481 1,037 1022 1,651 1,272 4,013 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Other Ethiopia Italy Iceland New Zealand Mexico Kenya Turkey Philippines United States Indonesia Installed Projects & permitted 15Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2016), GEA (2016), IGA (2015) TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIES INSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MWE (NOV 2016)
- 16. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND 2035 China 4,145 Global primary energy demand 2035 (mtoe) – source: IEA (2015) 1,559 967 Southeast Asia 2,192U.S. India 1,203 Africa 1,704 1,340 1,070 Europe Middle East Eurasia 247 465 Mexico Brazil 429 Japan
- 17. ENERGY DEMAND EUROPEAN UNION 2013 FINAL DEMAND BY SECTOR IN EUR28: 14,000 TWH Source: IHS Energy Multi-client Study Beyond the Flame: The Transformation of Europe’s Heat Sector (2016) Heating & Cooling - Residential 20% Heating & Cooling - Commercial 9% Heating & Cooling - Industry 15% Feedstock 6% Commercial - Other 4% Industry - Other 8% Residential - Other 5% Transport 33% 2013 Final Demand by Sector in EUR28 (%) HEATING DEMAND 44%
- 18. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DIRECT USE 2015 (UTILISATION IN TJ/ YEAR) Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 – Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015) Heat pumps 55.30% Space Heating 15.01% Greenhouse Heating 4.54% Aquaculture 2.03% Agricultural drying 0.35% Industrial uses 1.78% Bathing & Swimming, 20.31% Cooling/ snow melting 0.44% Others 0.25% Direct use utilization with heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr) Bathing & swimming 44.74% Space heating 36.98% Greenhouse heating 8.96% Aquaculture 3.40% Industrial use 2.99% Cooling/ snow melting 1.76% Agriculture drying 0.79% Others 0.39% Direct use utilization without heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr)
- 19. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DIRECT USE CAPACITY – MW THERMAL 1,845 5,275 15,384 33,124 49,898 68,000 6,810 9,870 12,885 15,359 20,431 27,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 (e) Heat pumps
- 20. CLIMATE INVESTMENT POTENTIAL – AN IFC ANALYSIS INVESTMENT POTENTIAL BY SECTOR ($ BILLION) 939 588 119 63 56 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal Small Hydro $ bn Source: IFC Analysis, “Climate Investment Potential in Emerging Markets” (2016) Based on: IFC “Climate investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets” (2016)
- 21. CLIMATE INVESTMENT POTENTIAL – AN IFC ANALYSIS INVESTMENT POTENTIAL GEOTHERMAL BY REGION ($ BILLION) 27 16 14 6 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Eastern & Central Asia South Asia Middle East & North Africa Source: IFC Analysis, “Climate Investment Potential in Emerging Markets” (2016) Based on: IFC “Climate investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets” (2016)
- 22. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Technical • Resource • Drilling • Resource risks • Equipment
- 23. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Business, Finance … • Financial structures • Risk mitigation (insurance) • Development time • Off-taker • Structure of projects
- 25. THINKGEOENERGY LEADING IN NEWS AND RESEARCH ON GEOTHERMAL ENERGY Focus on power generation and direct use … also internationally in Spanish and soon in Turkish and Indonesia.
- 26. CONTACT THINKGEOENERGY ALEXANDER RICHTER +354 618 5304 ALEX@THINKGEOENERGY.COM Spanish service: www.piensageotermia.com Turkish service: www.jeotermalhaberler.com (Dec. 2016) Social Media Handle: @thinkgeoenergy Subscribe to our Weekly Newsletter at: thinkgeoenergy.com/newsletter