The document summarizes the current status of global geothermal development. It shows that Asia has the largest installed geothermal capacity at 4,568 MW, followed by North America at 4,344 MW. The development pipeline is largest in the United States, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Financing remains a challenge, with development banks playing a key role. The document also outlines opportunities for Canadian companies to participate in geothermal supply chain areas like drilling, engineering, manufacturing, and services.

1. Global geothermal
development
Current status of development and outlook
Alexander Richter
ThinkGeoEnergy.com
@thinkgeoenergy
22 March 2013, CanGEA Conference, Calgary, Alberta

2. Overview on Status and Development
49 MW Hudson Ranch I, Salton Sea, California, U.S. – start of operation
2012

3. Current installed capacity
Asia
4,568
North America
4,344
Europe
1,642
Aus., NZ & Pacific
640
Central America
507
Africa
180
Middle East
82
Caribbean
15
South America
1
0
Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000

4. Current Installed capacity & projects
Asia
4,568
North America
4,344
Europe
1,642 1,271
Africa
6,447
180 2,249
Aus., NZ & Pacific
640
Central America
507
South America
7,868
666
298
1 729
Caribbean
15 320
Installed
Middle East
82 168
Projects
0
Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000

5. Installed, capacity & potential
Asia
70,884
North America
32,209
South America
30,780
Caribbean
15,065
Africa
11,571
Central America
12,405
Installed
Aus., NZ & Pacific
7,694
Europe
3,406
Additional Potential
2,551
Middle East
0
Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research
Projects
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000

6. Global Geothermal Energy Power Generation - Potential
32,200
Installed power generation capacity, projects/ inferred resources 3,400
& resource estimates
1,642
1,271
4,344
6,447
Installed
Installed
Resources
70,884
Europe
Resources
North America
2,550
82
27,400
168
Installed
Resources
Middle East
522
Installed
Resources
4,568
618
7,868
Installed
Asia
Cent. America &
Caribbean
11,600
30,800
180
1
Installed
High temperature regions
Resources
730
Resources
South America
2,249
Installed
7,700
Resources
Africa
640
666
Installed
Resources
Aus., NZ & Pacific
Current installed capacity
Projects & inferred resources
Resource estimates
Sources: Islandsbanki, ThinkGeoEnergy, Geothermal Energy Association, IGA, Chevron
Note: Installed Capacity of 2010 (2012), resource estimates combined (1999-2012) – IGA estimates a conservative total potential of 70,000 MW
and with technology improvements (extended use of low heat and EGS resources) at around 140,000 MW in power generation capacity.

7. Development pipeline
United States
3,093
Indonesia
1,197
Philippines
New Zealand
3,500
1,904
Mexico
2,500
958
1,140
628
Italy
1,240
843
Iceland
920
575
Japan
536
Kenya
5,400
800
535
530
167
El Salvador
204
Costa Rica
166
Nicaragua
88
290
200
240
Turkey
82
Russia
82 190
Guatemala
200
52 120
Chile
0
150
Papua New Guinea
56
75
Portugal
29
60
China
24
60
Ethiopia
France
Australia
7
45
16 35
1
40
Sources: ThinkGeoEnergy, GEA, IGA Bertani (2010)
2010
2015e

8. Development stages
Mauerstetten, Germany – dry well/ potential EGS
project

9. Development stages
Year 1
Start-up
•
•
•
Year 2
•
•
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7 …
Exploration
PreFeasibility
Legal Work
Concession
Permitting
•
Year 3
Feasibility
Design & Construction
Geophysical surveys
Geochemical and geological
data collection & analysis
Temperature gradient drilling
•
•
Operation
Focused Exploration on most
favorable resource area
Sufficient Exploration data
collected & analyzed
•
•
•
•
•
Drilling of first successful, full-sized
production well.
Confirmation Wells, Reserve Estimates
& Preliminary Design
Drilling & testing of
remaining production and
injection wells
Civil works required
Final design & testing

10. Global development by stages
8,000
7,000
7,222
6,508
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,862
2,423
2,000
1,000
891
110
0
Prospect
Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research
Exploration
Pre-Feasibility
Feasibility
Construction
Other*

11. Regional development by stages
8,000
1,067
7,000
Construction
6,000
5,000
435
Feasibility
685
1,209
Pre-Feasibility
Exploration
4,000
3,409
Prospect
1,763
3,000
316
113
145
2,000
1,000
0
170
100
190
269
143
351
594
176
Middle East
Central America
Caribbean NZ & Pacific AmericaEurope
Aus.,
South
1,075
2,903
2,533
Africa North America Asia

12. Current financial
situation
Solok, West Java, Indonesia

13. Financing geothermal projects
Start-up
Exploration/
Pre-Feasibility
Feasibility/
Resource
Verification
Detailed Design
& Construction
Mezz./ Bridge
Debt, Const.
Financing
Venture
Capital
Project & Vendor
Financing
Drilling
Equity
Development
Equity
Start of
Operation
Project
Equity
Tax
Equity
•
Developers
•
Private Equity
•
Private Equity
•
Financial Players
•
IPPs (Development Pipeline)
•
Public Markets
•
•
•
Resource Speculators
•
Financial Partners
Strategic
Partners
Large IPPs with
ability to monetize
PTCs
•
Venture Capitalists
Source: Islandsbanki

14. Financing of power plants
Annual new-build debt investment as proportion of total
for past decade, 2002–2012
$4.8bn TOTAL
%
Development bank
50%
%
%
%
%
46%
40%
30%
Commercial
lender
22%
20%
State-owned
entity
10%
0%
2002
20%
Pension fund 8%
Government 4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

15. Opportunities for Canadians
12.5 MW San Emidio
plant, Nevada, U.S.

16. Canadian Geothermal
Supply Chain
Canadian Geothermal Power &
Direct Use of Heat Technology
Roadmap and Deployment
Framework

17. Canadian geothermal sector
Energy
audit & law
firms
GeoScience
Technical
consulting
Drilling
Industry
news
Business
consulting
Construction
Financing
Industry
associations
(CanGEA, IGA, G
RC, GEA …)
Local consumers
(direct)
District heating
Industrial
heating
applications
Core Industry Function
R&D, education, knowl
edge
Geothermal
resource
exploration &
development
Geothermal research
Recreation, heal
th & tourism
Geothermal
energy production
Transmission
& distribution
Industry
Training & education
Drilling rigs
& related
Turbines &
generators
Retail electricity
Other
equipment
Local consumers
(indirect)
Equipment Suppliers
Related industries
Mining
Government (Agencies, department, offices)
Oil & Gas
Other Energy
Production
Legislation
Permitting &
licensing
Market
Regulation
Economic
Development

18. Exploration
PreFeasibility
Feasibility
Design & Construction
Operation
Research & development
Early-stage
exploration
Drilling & related services
Drilling & related services
EPC
Manufacturers & equipment suppliers
O&M services
Transmission
Business & related services
Policy & development
Off-takers

19. Canadian Case Study: Polaris/
Nicaragua
72 MW San Jacinto-Tizate plant, Nicaragua

20. 2003
Incorporation and listing on TSX (GEO)
2007
Installation of initial 10 MW at San Jacinto-Tizate/
Nicaragua
2009
Start of Phase I construction
Merger of Polaris, Western GeoPower and Ram Power
(RPG)
20092011
Debt financing raised US$309.5m ($149.5 + $160m)
2011
Commercial operation of 36 MW Phase I expansion
2013
Commercial operation of 36 MW Phase II expansion

21. 72 MW San Jacinto-Tizate Geothermal Plant
= 8% of Nicaragua’s installed capacity

22. Current market situation
•
•
•
•
•
•
Current development would triple installed capacity
Growth markets: Asia, Eastern Africa, South America
Continuing financial constraints
Role of development banks
Vendor and export financing
Limit in industry capabilities

23. Canadian opportunities
Investment
/ Finance
Development
Service
s
Education
Technology/
Supply

24. • Global news
• Job Portal
• Geothermal Power
Plant Map
• Social media
• iPhone app
• Free pictures
• Services
www.
ThinkGeoEnergy.
com

25. Contact
Alexander Richter
ThinkGeoEnergy.com
alex@thinkgeoenergy.com
Follow me:
Twitter: @thinkgeoenergy
LinkedIn Group: ThinkGeoEnergy
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