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- 1. Funded by EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net Dra. Ana Rosa Lagunas Director, Photovoltaic Solar Energy department
- 2. Funded by Agenda • Context for 2016 Renewable Energies development • World Energy Mix. Prospects and forecasts – An approach to Renewable Energies (Wind, Biomass, Solar, Other) • GCC countries – Opportunities • Solar photovoltaic energy – Markets – Prices and the learning curve – Components production
- 3. Funded by EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net
- 4. Funded by 2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES • Cumulative world renewable capacity surpassed that of coal. • A record amount of new Renewable Energy capacity was installed in 2015 that represented 55% of total additions • 153 GW of new capacity connected to the grid: – 66GW record level wind additions – 49GW record level PV additions Source: Global outlook report 2016, IEA
- 5. Funded by 2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES • COP21 Paris Agreement gives momentum to renewables • Local air pollution & energy security are also key drivers • Global Energy investment confirms transition to renewables – 17% investment in renewables – 12% investment in energy efficiency • In order to continue that trend, policy makers need to provide investors more clarity & certainty
- 6. Funded by New policies underpin a more bullish forecast for renewables Electricity and renewable generation growth by country/region Source: Total electricity generation from World Energy Outlook 2016 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 China India ASEAN Africa EU28 UnitedStates Japan TWh Electricity generation growth (2015-21) Renewablegenerationgrowth(2015-21)
- 7. Funded by New policies underpin a more bullish forecast for renewables 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 MTRMR2015Forecast 2014-2020 MTRMR2016Forecast 2015-21 Netadditions(GW) Others Brazil India China Japan UnitedStates EU28 Renewable electricity capacity growth (GW) in MTRMR’s main case Source: IEA Medium Term Market Report
- 8. Funded by 2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES • Other areas of investment for development of Renewable Energies – Strategies for system integration of variable renewables (wind and solar PV) must be developed and implemented – Application of renewable energy to heat (industry and buildings) – Biofuels also as an alternative for automotive industry
- 9. Funded by 2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES: SPECIFIC FOR PV • More optimistic forecasts in some scenarios suggest that PV could reach 700GW in 2020 (Solar Power Europe, Global Market outlook 2016) • A new global organization has been created: Global solar power foundation – Headquarters in China – Secretariat in US
- 10. Funded by EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net
- 11. Funded by ESTIMATED RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE OF GLOBAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 2014 IEA 2016 Key Renewable Trends REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 12. Funded by ESTIMATED RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE OF GLOBAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, END 2015 IEA 2016 Key Renewable Trends REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 13. Funded by AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY AND BIOFUELS PRODUCTION REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 14. Funded by RENEWABLE POWER CAPACITIES IN WORLD, EU-28, BRICS AND TOP SEVEN COUNTRIES, END-2015 REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 15. Funded by HYDROPOWER REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 16. Funded by WIND POWER REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 17. Funded by BIOMASS: GLOBAL BIO-POWER GENERATION REN21 Global Status Report 2016 Electricity (and heat) generation in Biomass plants
- 18. Funded by BIFUELS GLOBAL PRODUCTION, SHARES BY TYPE AND BY COUNTRY/REGION, 2015 REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 19. Funded by BIOMASS: BIOFUELS CHARACTERISTICS • Biofuels could technically substitute oil in all transport modes, with existing power train technologies and existing re-fuelling infrastructures. Use of biomass resources can also decarbonise synthetic fuels, methane and LPG. – First generation biofuels are based on traditional crops, animal fats, used cooking oils. They include FAME biodiesel, bioethanol, and biomethane. – Advanced and second generation biofuels are produced from ligno-cellulosic feedstock and wastes. They include bioethanol, HVO, higher alcohols, DME, BTL and biomethane.
- 20. Funded by BIOMASS: REQUIREMENTS FOR ADVANCED BIOFUELS COMPLY (FEEDSTOCK) From a feedstock and process point of view advanced biofuels should fulfill at least the following criteria: • Focus on sustainability • Feedstock production should not compete with food production • Feedstock production should not harm the environment (e.g. cause deforestation, ground water pollution etc.) • Feedstock production and fuel processing should be efficient from a GHG point of view.
- 21. Funded by BIOMASS: REQUIREMENTS FOR ADVANCED BIOFUELS COMPLY (END-USE) The criteria from an end-use point of view: • At least equivalent end-use quality compared with traditional mineral oil based fuels • Compatibility with existing refueling infrastructure • Compatibility with existing vehicles • Fuel components that do not only provide heating value but also a possibility for reduced harmful exhaust emissions.
- 22. Funded by BIOMASS: BIOFUELS SUMMARY • The production of biofuels from both food and energy crops (1st Gen) is limited by the availability of land, water, energy and co- product yields, and sustainability considerations, such as the life- time accountancy of CO2 emissions. Second generation biofuels from wastes and residues are also limited by the availability of these materials. • The development of feedstock potential and of optimized production processes is of the highest priority. • A supportive policy framework and harmonized standards for biofuels are key elements for the future uptake of sustainable biofuels.
- 23. Funded by GEOTHERMAL ENERGY • Depends on the type of resource available – High temperature resources (>150ºC): produce hot water and vapor. Can be used for heating and for electricity (water is given back to the original place). – Medium- low temperature (30ºC-150ºC): used mostly for district heating, spas, greenhouses… and in some cases for electricity – Low temperature (<30ºC): for clymatization, usually through a heat pump • 2,3% growth rate since 1990 until 2015 and stable
- 24. Funded by GEOTHERMAL POWER CAPACITY AND ADDITIONS, TOP 10 COUNTRIES AND REST OF WORLD, 2015 REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 25. Funded by GEOTHERMAL ENERGY: MAIN USERS Source: ERA-NET GEOTHERMAL (2015) • Policy support and more R&D in order to find adequate applications are needed • Increase of medium-low temperature users Source: ERA-NET GEOTHERMAL (2015)
- 26. Funded by GEOTHERMAL ENERGY • There are concerns about environmental impacts • On the technological side, there are six areas of interest: – Exploration, measurement and logging – Drilling technology – Reservoir creation and enhancement – Induced seismicity – Surface technology (heat and electricity production, …) • Policy support needed • Effort on R&D
- 27. Funded by ESTIMATED DIRECT AND INDIRECT JOBS IN RENEWABLE WORLDWIDE, BY INDUSTRY
- 28. Funded by ESTIMATED DIRECT AND INDIRECT JOBS IN GCC REGION BY 2030 Source: Renewable Energy Market Analysis: the GCC region (IRENA-2016) Achieving the GCC Renewable Energy targets could create 140.000 jobs per year, and up to 210.000 in 2030, 85% Solar (PV and CSP)
- 29. Funded by PPA PRICE OFFERS FOR SOLAR PV AND WIND ONSHORE POWER PLANTS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES REN21 Global Status Report 2016 Source: Solar Power Europe – Global Market Outlook 2016 based on International Energy Agency data
- 30. Funded by EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net
- 31. Funded by EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2015 Solar Power 2016
- 32. Funded by EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2015 Solar Power 2016
- 33. Funded by EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY: confidence in numbers? • From 50 to 59 GW installed in 2015 • Who’s right, who’s wrong ? • Counting apples, pears… and more ? • Some rules • Counting AC numbers is simply wrong switch to DC or count both. • What does « installed » means? Commissioned? • Production > shipments > installations … …
- 34. Funded by EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED 2015: TOP 10 INSTALLATION AND TOTALS
- 35. Funded by EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED 2015: TOP 1 TO TOP 10
- 36. Funded by EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED 2015: ENERGY VERSUS POWER INSTALLED
- 37. Funded by EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED: WHAT ABOUT 2016 until 2020? Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016
- 38. Funded by GLOBAL ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS UNTIL 2020 Source: Solar Power Europe 2016
- 39. Funded by SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL SOLAR PV ROOFTOP AND UTILITY SCALE SEGMENTS DEVELOPMENT 2015-2020 Source: Solar Power Europe 2016
- 40. Funded by A tale of 2 markets Distributed PV Centralized PV Prosumers Producers Grid injection, PPA, competition with utilities generation business Self-consumption, energy effiency, grid parity, competition with utilities distribution business One technology
- 41. Funded by SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL SOLAR PV DEVELOPMENT 2015-2020: 2 MARKETS
- 42. Funded by MAIN POLICY DRIVERS FOR SOLAR PV IN 2015 Solar Power 2016
- 43. Funded by Evolution of PV power installed in European countries Power Solar
- 44. Funded by Installed PV power type in Europe by country to 2015 Solar Power
- 45. Funded by EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net
- 46. Funded by Production of photovoltaic cells and modules by region Navigant Consulting and Paula Mints; graphics PSE AG 2016
- 47. Funded by Production share of cells and photovoltaic modules by region Navigant Consulting and Paula Mints; graphics PSE AG 2016
- 48. Funded by Main photovoltaic cell and module companies in 2015 Eurobserver
- 49. Funded by Evolution of the main companies producing cells / modules IHS Research, CompareMySolar.co.uk r
- 50. Funded by % Annual production: Evolution by technologies PSE AG 2016 50,6GWp production at 2015 93% was c-Si wafer based, multi-Si, 69%, 7% 69% 24%
- 51. Funded by Evolution of the market share of thin film technologies PSE AG 2016
- 52. Funded by Evolution of the market share of HCPV and LCPV technologies ISE 2016 HCPV from 300 to 1000 times concentration, LCPV under 300
- 53. Funded by Energy Pay-Back Time for PV and CPV Systems Different Technologies located in Catania, Sicily, Italy
- 54. Funded by Evolution of the market share and price of PV inverters and converters ISE 2016
- 55. Funded by EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK II Join us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: contact@eugcc-cleanergy.net
- 56. Funded by Evolution of the average monthly price of modules sold in Europe by technology and country of origin Manufacturing costs continue to be reduced, although there is a slight slowdown PvXchange and GTM research
- 57. Funded by EVOLUTION OF MODULES PRICE: THE LEARNING CURVE PvXchange and GTM research • The Learning curve concept is an empirical way of looking at COSTS decrease (due to technology improvements). • Has been theorized for semi-conductors well before PV (BCG) • Prices vs Costs • Automation, industrialization, different cost paradigm in China (cheaper equipment…)… • Range of costs and prices: LC is perfect for low prices but what for emerging technologies? • Modules or cells?
- 58. Funded by PVXchange and GTM research EVOLUTION OF MODULES PRICE: THE LEARNING CURVE
- 59. Funded by EVOLUTION OF MODULES PRICE: THE LEARNING CURVE
- 60. Funded by PvXchange and GTM research MODULES PRICE: PUBLIC DATA AND FORECASTS Cost reduction based on: • Polisilicon reduction (thickness) • Efficiency of PV cell • Automation and manufacturing Processes, cell and module • 20% in 2 years • In the case of thin film technology reduction mostly due to efficiency increase and manufacturing improvement Module (33%, 46%, 41%)
- 61. Funded by PvXchange and GTM research MODULES PRICE: PUBLIC DATA AND FORECASTS
- 62. Funded by Evolution of the market share and price of PV inverters and converters ISE 2016
- 63. Funded by THE COST OF PV ENERGY PvXchange and GTM research • We have been speaking about price of components, however, is the cost of kWh obtained what will make PV technology competitive On the technical side: • Good irradiation conditions (site) • Optimum design • Optimum components (modules & BOS) • Adequate M&O On the financial side: • FIT or alternative support policy (or not) • Banking conditions…
- 64. Funded by PPA PRICE OFFERS FOR SOLAR PV AND WIND ONSHORE POWER PLANTS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES REN21 Global Status Report 2016
- 65. Funded by PPA PRICE OFFERS FOR SOLAR PV AND WIND ONSHORE POWER PLANTS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES REN21 Global Status Report 2016 Source: Solar Power Europe – Global Market Outlook 2016 based on International Energy Agency data
Editor's Notes
- First, cumulative world renewable capacity surpassed that of coal. This means that renewables have become now the largest source of power capacity in the world (N.B: not yet electricity generation) For the first time, renewables represented more than half (55%) of new net power capacity additions in one year (2015). Renewable capacity additions broke another record with 153 GW of new capacity connected to the grid. This was driven by: Record-level wind additions (66 GW) China alone installed around 33 GW (due to developers rushing to get high FiT before the announced reductions). That means two wind turbines installed every hour. Record-level solar PV additions (49 GW). This means around half a million of PV panels installed every day!
- Now the question is – will these trends continue? Some signs are encouraging It took more than seven years for the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force. The Paris Agreement is to enter into force next week – less than a year after the historic agreement signed at COP21 last December. But renewables are not just driven by climate change mitigation. In many countries – most notably here in Asia – reducing harmful air pollution and increasing energy diversification and energy security are equally important – if not even more important drivers. This is reflected in investment figures, showing a transition towards cleaner energy. Our recent World Energy Investment report showed that investment in renewables (17%) and energy efficiency (12%) accounted for some 30% of global energy investment in 2015.
- Medium Term Market Report Let’s turn back to electricity sector. Last year when I presented 2015 edition of this report, I highlighted that policy uncertainties in some key markets remain important challenges to renewable electricity deployment going forward. [CLICK] Some policy changes in key markets over the last year, especially since COP 21, have resulted in a more optimistic forecast. This year we revised up our forecast by 13% (over 100 GW) in terms of net capacity additions over the forecast period. United States alone represents 43% of total upward forecast revisions to MTRMR 2015 with the long-term extension of federal tax incentives has improved the economics of onshore wind and solar PV, especially in the context of current low natural gas prices. In terms of net additions, United States will become the second largest renewable electricity growth market globally surpassing the EU for the first time. In China, growing air pollution concerns and a favourable policy environment with increased preliminary government targets for most renewables drive more optimistic outlook. China remains the largest renewable energy market globally with its capacity expanding 60% (305 GW) by 2021. The European Union is the third largest growth market. Many countries are transitioning from FITs and green certificates to competitive auction and feed-in premium mechanisms to achieve more cost-effective deployment for utility-scale projects. However, policy and regulatory uncertainties remain, both at the EU level relating to the governance of 2030 renewable targets, and at country level for some key markets (the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland), which affect growth prospects. In India, an improved policy environment, competitive tenders and decreasing renewable costs are major drivers for the more optimistic solar PV outlook, which leads this growth. In other emerging economies and developing countries represent on-fifth of the growth which is almost equal to growth in the EU and US combined. This growth is driven mostly by diversification needs, air pollution concerns and renewable cost reductions.
- Medium Term Market Report Let’s turn back to electricity sector. Last year when I presented 2015 edition of this report, I highlighted that policy uncertainties in some key markets remain important challenges to renewable electricity deployment going forward. [CLICK] Some policy changes in key markets over the last year, especially since COP 21, have resulted in a more optimistic forecast. This year we revised up our forecast by 13% (over 100 GW) in terms of net capacity additions over the forecast period. United States alone represents 43% of total upward forecast revisions to MTRMR 2015 with the long-term extension of federal tax incentives has improved the economics of onshore wind and solar PV, especially in the context of current low natural gas prices. In terms of net additions, United States will become the second largest renewable electricity growth market globally surpassing the EU for the first time. In China, growing air pollution concerns and a favourable policy environment with increased preliminary government targets for most renewables drive more optimistic outlook. China remains the largest renewable energy market globally with its capacity expanding 60% (305 GW) by 2021. The European Union is the third largest growth market. Many countries are transitioning from FITs and green certificates to competitive auction and feed-in premium mechanisms to achieve more cost-effective deployment for utility-scale projects. However, policy and regulatory uncertainties remain, both at the EU level relating to the governance of 2030 renewable targets, and at country level for some key markets (the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland), which affect growth prospects. In India, an improved policy environment, competitive tenders and decreasing renewable costs are major drivers for the more optimistic solar PV outlook, which leads this growth. In other emerging economies and developing countries represent on-fifth of the growth which is almost equal to growth in the EU and US combined. This growth is driven mostly by diversification needs, air pollution concerns and renewable cost reductions.
- It is not ideology, but investment. Investors need clarity and there is still too much policy uncertainty in too many countries. This is by far the most important barrier to renewables deployment. In addition, cost-effective strategies for system integration of variable renewables (wind and solar PV) must be developed and implemented And last but not least, much more efforts need to accomplished in the sectors of renewable heat (industry and buildings) and transport biofuels.
- It is not ideology, but investment. Investors need clarity and there is still too much policy uncertainty in too many countries. This is by far the most important barrier to renewables deployment. In addition, cost-effective strategies for system integration of variable renewables (wind and solar PV) must be developed and implemented And last but not least, much more efforts need to accomplished in the sectors of renewable heat (industry and buildings) and transport biofuels.
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT Es decir que % que ha crecido de un año para otro (de 2010 a 2015 es el promedio)
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- El recurso hay que obtenerlo, no existe por que sí como en otros casos
- Agua para calor y el vapor para mover turbina
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- “ countries with a very volvanic activity are the main candidates for the “hot temperature”Magmatic” Complex to identify whcih is primary or secondary energy use, however the sense is to identify countries with geothermal use Market forecasts not optimized say it might be on the 400 GW thermal by 2030
- Agua para calor y el vapor para mover turbina
- Gsr 2016 FULL REPORT
- GCC Renewables from IRENA 2016. Interesting to note that both PV (utility) and PV (Rooftop) are considered
- Global market outlook 2016
- Global market outlook 2016
- Global market outlook 2016
- Global market outlook 2016
- Global market outlook 2016
- Global market outlook 2016, when is speaking about absolute values Is like 10 countries install 90% of PV capacity
- Global market outlook 2016 Spain 37% coverage RREE, 3% in PV, 18,4% wind, 11,9% Hydro
- Global market outlook 2016, Bussiness as usual, high scenanrio and medium. High scenario influence by policies More recent than Solar Power Europe
- Global market outlook 2016
- Global market outlook 2016, How is it going to be distributed?. In places with not much land left, buildings start to be a good place for PV installation, together with added possibilities of enhancing Energy Efficiency
- Global market outlook 2016, How is it going to be distributed?. In places with not much land left, buildings start to be a good place for PV installation, together with added possibilities of enhancing Energy Efficiency
- Global market outlook 2016, How is it going to be distributed?. In places with not much land left, buildings start to be a good place for PV installation, together with added possibilities of enhancing Energy Efficiency
- Global market outlook 2016 ¿Cuál ha sido la fuerza impulsora del desarrollo de la FV?. Naturalmente, las FIT tenían sentido en ámbitos de baja irradiancia o cuando los componentes eran muy caros. Esta segunda circunstancia ya no es tan importante, y hay entornos donde la “grid parity” ya se ha alcanzado
- You are going to produce in GCC
- 46,4 mono+multi, 11,6 mono, 34,8
- Global market outlook 2016
- Global market outlook 2016