The IPCC's fifth assessment report highlights the severe impacts of climate change on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including rising sea levels, increased cyclone activity, and effects on tourism and marine ecosystems. It stresses the urgent need for adaptation measures and international cooperation to mitigate risks, as SIDS face high economic costs linked to climate-related damages. The report calls for integrated approaches to adaptation, mitigation, and development to enhance resilience and secure sustainable futures for SIDS.

1. The
IPCC’s Fift
h
Assessme
nt Report
What’s in it for
Small Islands
Developing States?
Key findings

2. ● Since the 1950s, the rate of global warming
has been unprecedented compared to previous
decades and millennia
● The IPCC says with 95% certainty that
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere due to human activities have
been
the dominant cause of observed warming since
the mid-20th century
The climate is
already
changing

3. Even today, climate-related risks for
SIDS include sea level rise, tropical
and extra-tropical cyclones, increasing
air and
sea surface temperatures, and
changing rainfall patterns (high
confidence)
BUT
In most small islands, long-term
quality-controlled climate data are
generally sparse
SIDS are
already feeling
the impacts

4. SIDS are
already feeling
the impacts

5. Further climate
change is
inevitable
What are the IPCC scenarios?

6. Temperature, rainfall and sea level
rise will change in Caribbean,
Indian Ocean and Pacific Island
regions

7. Impacts of global
warming
Observed and projected global annual
average temperature
Global risks under increasing levels of
climate change

8. Tourism
● Tourism is a weather- and climate-sensitive
sector which is important for many SIDS
● Resource degradation such as beach erosion
and coral bleaching negatively impact the
attractiveness of tourist destinations
Climate change
is affecting
growth and
development in
SIDS

9. Climate change
is affecting
growth and
development in
SIDS
Marine ecosystems
● “Marine ecosystems have been affected by
climate change already (very high confidence)”-
IPCC
● Coral reefs, sea grass, mangroves provide
ecosystem goods and services, e.g.
– Fish breeding grounds
– Coastal protection from storms

10. Climate change
is affecting
growth and
development in
SIDS
Freshwater availability
● Saline intrusion into groundwater supplies
Terrestrial ecosystems
● Shifts in species distribution

11. Climate change
is affecting
growth and
development in
SIDS
Infrastructure, settlement and ‘coastal squeeze’
● Development on coasts, squeezed by rising
sea levels
● Population drift and rapid population growth
Public health
● Impacts of extreme weather on human lives,
health
● Incidence, spread of diseases

12. Climate change trends have varying impacts on
small islands, dependent on the magnitude,
frequency and extent of the event, as well as on
the bio-physical nature of the island and its social,
economic and political setting . Thus, small islands
do not have uniform climate change risk profiles
(high confidence)
Climate-related
risks vary for
different island
states

13. Due to sea level rise projected throughout the 21st
century and beyond, coastal systems and low lying
areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts
such as submergence, coastal flooding and coastal
erosion (very high confidence)
Climate change
poses an
existential threat
to some SIDS

14. Carefully planned adaptation activities make for
good development. ‘No regrets’ and ‘low regrets’
measures:
● Increasing access to information
● Improving health services
● Diversifying cropping systems
● Strengthening access to land, credit and other
resources especially for poor and marginalised
groups
● Improving governance of water and land
resources
Adaptation can
reduce the
impacts of
climate change,
but there are
limits and risks
involved

15. Adaptation can
reduce the
impacts of
climate change
Loss of livelihoods,
coastal settlements,
infrastructure,
ecosystem services,
and economic stability

16. Adaptation can
reduce the
impacts of
climate change
The interaction of
rising global mean sea
level in the 21st
century with high-water-
level events will
threaten low-lying
coastal areas

17. ● Damage costs for SIDS are enormous in
relation to the size of their economies, they will
find it most difficult to raise the necessary
finances
● E.g. unit cost of shoreline protection per capita
in small islands is substantially higher than for a
larger territory with a larger population
“In many cases, we are not
prepared for the climate-related
risks we already face.
Investments in better preparation
can pay dividends both in the
present and for the future.”
– Vicente Barros, IPCC Working
Group II Co-Chair
The economic
cost of
adaptation to
climate change
is high in SIDS
relative to the
size of their
economies

18. ● In order to limit global warming to
less than 2oC, total emissions from
human activity should not exceed
800–1000 gigatonnes of carbon
dioxide equivalent, to date, human
activity has release 500 gigatonnes
● Pledges by world leaders are not
enough to limit global warming
below 2oC
Promoting
ambitious global
action

19. Many sustainable development pathways combine
climate adaptation, mitigation, development options
effectively
SIDS stand to
benefit from
integrated
adaptation-mitigation-development
approaches

20. ● Historic emissions from SIDS have
contributed extremely little to global
greenhouse gas concentrations
● SIDS countries can nonetheless
benefit from low-carbon investments
because it confers other
advantages, such as reducing
dependence on costly imported
fossil fuels (energy security)
Transformation
to a low-carbon
economy implies
new investment
patterns

21. ● Every government must participate in global
negotiations toward a collective solution
● Developed countries have committed to
mobilising $100 billion/year by 2020 for
adaptation and mitigation in developing
countries
“International cooperation is
required to effectively mitigate
greenhouse gas emissions and
address other climate change
issues…outcomes seen as
equitable can lead to more
effective cooperation”–IPCC
International
cooperation is
vital to avert
dangerous
climate change

22. Download resources
including infographics and slides:
www.cdkn.org/ar5-toolkit
Find the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
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