The document discusses the necessity of strategic planning in organizations given the rapid changes brought by emerging technologies and social trends, particularly in light of challenges like climate change. It highlights the importance of forecasting these disruptions and suggests that many organizations fail to prioritize strategic thinking due to preoccupation with current tasks. The research utilizes collective intelligence from experts to predict trends and the future impact of technological advancements and their adoption patterns.

1. Forecasting Future Disruptions
Strategic Change Is Inevitable
Prof. Bill Halal
2015

2. What are the key forecasts to 2030
for emerging technologies, social trends, and wild cards…
What are the possible impacts?

3. Sound strategic planning is rarely practiced in most organizations
today, and at a critical time when the world is changing dramatically, it
has never been more necessary.

4. Exceptions

5. Some corporations and governments do a fine job scanning the horizon
for disruptive trends in technology, markets, and society, and devising
strategies to adapt, or even use the disruptive forces to their
advantage.

6. Most people are preoccupied with their current work and have difficulty
finding time for strategic thinking.

7. Climate Change…
Today, the challenges ahead are so unprecedented
and so dangerous that they cannot be ignored.
Tipping point of 400 ppm (parts per million) of Carbon Dioxide CO2
in the atmosphere in 2014

8. Climate Change…
Today, the challenges ahead are so unprecedented
and so dangerous that they cannot be ignored.
Tipping point of 400 ppm (parts per million) of Carbon Dioxide CO2
in the atmosphere in 2014

9. This article aims to help readers consider the challenges
posed by the technology revolution, globalization, and
social changes, and to explore how to get your
organization on the right side of history

10. Key findings from…

11. Research method
TechCast is a Project…
The results show that technological and social advances,
their adoption patterns, and impacts follow well-defined
cycles that can be forecast rather accurately
Collective intelligence to pool the
knowledge of 130 high-tech
CEOs, scientists, engineers,
academics, consultants, futurists,
and other experts worldwide to
forecast breakthroughs in a
comprehensive range of fields.

12. 1.TheTechnology Revolution

13. Adoption level:
Some think of it as the emergence of
the technological singularity.
Futurist Ray Kurzweil defines the
Singularity as
"a future period during which the pace
of technological change will be so rapid,
its impact so deep, that human life will
be irreversibly transformed"

14. Table 1 - EmergingTechnologies Forecasts
Each technology will reach
its next adoption level
The potential global market
size in US$ at saturation
The confidence level of the
experts for each forecast

15. Table 2 - EmergingTechnologies Forecasts

16. Table 3 - EmergingTechnologies Forecasts

17. …