Insights from Irish Energy Systems Modelling on Decarbonising Road Freight and the Impact of Intangible Costs

1. Insights from Irish Energy Systems Modelling on Decarbonising
Road Freight and the Impact of Intangible Costs
Dr Vahid Aryanpur & Dr Fionn Rogan
Energy Policy and Modelling Group
MaREI, SFI Centre for Energy, Climate, and Marine, University College Cork, Ireland

2. Trucks: Emissions & Demand
❑ CO2 emissions during 1990 to 2021 have risen by 115%
❑ Transport sector is responsible for 34% of energy-related CO2 emissions
❑ Trucks generate 20% of transport emissions
❑ Trucks make up 5% of total road vehicle stock
❑ The overall freight demand is expected to double by 2050
1
meet increasing demand while minimising environmental impacts

3. Decarbonising trucks
❑ Barriers
▪ Alternative fuel availability
▪ Recharging/refuelling time
▪ Decreased cargo capacity
▪ Capital-intensive infrastructures
▪ Well-to-wheel emissions
▪ Less commercialised technologies
▪ Hesitancy to invest in a less mature technology
2
ICEs
BEVs
FCVs
Need for a comprehensive Energy System Analysis

4. 3
TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM)
Energy Service
Demands
Transport
• Passenger (pkm)
• Freight (tkm)
• Others (PJ)
Other sectors
• Space heating
• Hot water
• Lighting
• Electricity
• Cooking
• Refrigeration
• Industries
• Others
End-use
Technologies
Transport
• Active modes
• Car fleet
• Trucks
• Bus
• Train
• Others
Other sectors
• Residential
• Industry
• Service
• Agriculture
Macroeconomic
drivers
(population,
GDP,
floor
area,
…)
Demand-side Module
Resources and
Potentials
Power
Generation
Module
Onshore Wind
Offshore Wind
Coal-Fired
Gas-Fired
Biogas-Fired
Hydropower
Steam Turbine
Solar PV
Fossil fuel
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
Imports
• Electricity
• Oil products
• Biofuels
• Natural gas
Fuel Supply
Module
Biogas
Oil products
Natural gas
Liquid Biofuels
Hydrogen
• Renewable
• Wind
• Hydro
• Solar
• Biomass
Distribution
• Electricity
• Oil products
• Biofuels
• Natural gas
Future
fuel
and
technology
prices,
constraints,
policies,
…
CCS
(Gas/Biomass)
Supply-side Module
Legend Exogenous input Energy carriers Emission flow
Carbon Budget
CO2 Constraint
Emission Control Module
Direct Air Carbon
Capture & Storage
CO2 Removal

5. 4
Freight sector and main input
Diesel
Bio-diesel
CNG
Bio-CNG
Hydrogen
Electricity
Transport Fuels
Demand (PJ)
Demand
(tkm)
LNG
Goods
Vehicles
Existing fleet
Light Trucks (2-5 t)
ICEs
Medium Trucks (5-10 t)
ICEs
Heavy Trucks (>10 t)
ICEs
Alternative options
Light Trucks (2-5 t)
ICEs, HEVs, PHEVs
BEVs, FCVs
Medium Trucks (5-10 t)
ICEs, HEVs, BEVs
FCVs
Heavy Trucks (>10 t)
ICEs, HEVs, BEVs
FCVs
Intangible costs
Recharging time
Cargo capacity
Hurdle rates
• Existing trucks
Fleet composition
Fuel economy
Retirement profile
Activities
• New trucks
Drivetrain capital costs
O&M costs
Load factor
Lifetime
Annual mileage
Retirement profile
Supply-side Module
Emission Control
Module
Road Freight Sector
Techno-economic
parameters
Rest of Demand-side
Module

6. 5
Cargo capacity and refuelling time
Technology
Cargo capacity relative to
diesel ICE
Refueling time multipliers
2020 2050 2020 2050
ICEs (CNG) 0.99 0.99 1.2 1.1
BEVs 0.67 0.89 8 2
FCVs 0.9 0.96 1.2 1.1
Source: Lajevardi SM, Axsen J, Crawford C. Simulating competition among heavy-duty zero-emissions vehicles under different infrastructure
conditions. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2022 May 1;106:103254.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920922000840?via%3Dihub#f0005
8 ton to 5.4 ton ~50k to 36k (km/yr)

7. 6
Discount rate
12%
11%
10% 10%
4%
BPIE EU-TIMES PRIMES EU
Commission
Public sector
(Ireland)
❑ Social DR: 4%
❑ EU Range: 10-12%
❑ Ireland: 12%
▪ High levels of competition
▪ Low profit margins
▪ Volatile fuel prices
▪ Suggest a higher rate of
return for investors

8. 7
Scenario definition
❑ Reference
❑ Net zero by 2050
❑ Net zero + Intangible costs
Scenarios BAU
Carbon budget
constraint
Intangible costs
Recharging time Cargo capacity Hurdle rate (12%)
Reference ✓
Mitigation ✓ ✓
Mitigation+ Intangible ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

9. 8
Results: Vehicle stock
ICEs HEVs PHEVs BEVs FCVs ZEVs (%)
Heavy Trucks (over 10 tonne) Medium Trucks (5 - 10 tonne) Small Trucks (2 - 5 tonne)
Net
zero
+
Intangible
costs
Net
zero
Reference
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEVs
(%)
Stock
(kVehicles)

10. Diesel Biodiesel Gas Electricity Hydrogen ZEF (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEF
(%)
Fuel
consumption
(PJ)
Reference
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEF
(%)
Fuel
consumption
(PJ)
Net zero
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ZEF
(%)
Fuel
consumption
(PJ)
Net zero+Intangible
14.2
16.7
11.1
12.1
14.0
9.0
8.6
0 5 10 15 20
Net zero+Intangible
Net zero
Reference
Net zero+Intangible
Net zero
Reference
Current value
2050
2040
2020 Average fuel economy (tkm/lde)
9
Fuel consumption

11. 10
CO2 emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2
emissions
(million
ton)
Reference
Light trucks Medium trucks Heavy trucks
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2
emissions
(million
ton)
Net zero
Light trucks Medium trucks Heavy trucks
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2
emissions
(million
ton)
Net zero+Intangible
Light trucks Medium trucks Heavy trucks
0.24
0.03
197
117
61
255
201
0 100 200 300
Net zero+Intangible
Net zero
Reference
Net zero+Intangible
Net zero
Reference
Current value
2050
2040
2020
Average CO2 emissions (gCO2/tkm)

12. Key takeaways
▪ Cargo capacity, refuelling time, and hurdle rates can significantly change the
results between electrification & hydrogen FCV
▪ Intangible costs impact preference
▪ Hydrogen FCV may be favoured for medium and heavy trucks
▪ BEVs are preferred without considering intangible costs
▪ Importance of holistic evaluation: Policy makers and stakeholders should
consider both tangible & intangible factors for effective decarbonisation strategies
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13. Future research
❑ Sensitivity analysis to further refine results
❑ The impact of driving range
❑ Infrastructure considerations (H2, EVSE)
❑ Technology readiness of zero emission trucks
❑ Series-production (manufacturing readiness)
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14. Thanks for listening!