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The Norway way for grids:
Electrifying the traffic system of a whole
nation– but can the grid handle it?
2
Europe as a forerunner in globally rising EV sales
Global EV market share uptake in new vehicle sales
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Europe
North America,
Greater China,
OECD Pacific
Indian sub continent
Latin America,
Middle East and North
Africa, North East Eurasia,
South East Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
EVmarketsharenewvehiclesales
Source: DNV GL Energy Transition Outlook 2018
3
Global power demand caused by electrification of transport
EV uptake leads to additional electricity demand
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
Powerdemandfromtransport
(TWh/year)
Power demand from transport
Source: DNV GL, 2019
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1
EV Plug-in hybrid EV Total
TotalnumberofnewEV
Shareofnewregisteredcars[%]
In Norway already in 2019 50% of new cars are EVs
Number of new registrations and share of EVs in Norway
Source: DNV GL, 2019
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2018 2025 2030 2018 2025 2030
Gasoline BEV - Home Charging
Purchase price NOK/vehicle/year Registration duty NOK/vehicle/year
Charging infrastructure NOK/vehicle/year Operation and maintenance NOK/vehicle/year
Fuel/Energy NOK/vehicle/year
Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
NOK/km
EVs are still getting cheaper in the future
Total cost of ownership comparison for Norway
NOK
EUR [€]
=
10
1
Conversion:Source: DNV GL, 2019
6
Energy efficiency comparison of ICE and BEV
Electric drivetrains provide higher energy efficiency than ICEs
+ 100% Fuel
- 68-72%
Engine losses
- 0-2%
Auxiliary
Electrica
l losses
- 5-6%
Drivetrain losses
- 4-6%
Parasitic
losses
Breaking
4-7%
Rolling
resistance
4-7%
Wind
resistance
8-12%
- 16%
Energy lost
in charging
+ 100% Energy
- 2.5%
Parasitic
losses
- 16%
Electric Drive
system losses
Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (Gasoline) Battery Electric Vehicle
+17%
regenerative
breaking
Breaking
22-23%
Rolling
resistance
22-23%
Wind
resistance
33-36%
16 - 25 %
65 + 17(rek)
=82%
Energy losses
Energy input
Used power to
move vehicle
down the road
- 0-4%
Auxiliary
Electrica
l losses
Source: Graphical illustration by accilium, Data from US Department of Energy, 2019
7
Uncontrolled home charging with biggest impact on grid
Charging patterns of EVs and their impact on the Norwegian distribution grid
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 65 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 19 2116 18 20 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 65 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 19 2116 18 20 22 23 24
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Time of day (hour) Time of day (hour)
MWh/h
MWh/h
Home
Fast
At Work
Total
Without EVs
Charge at night
Afternoon charge everyday
Afternoon charge when required
Charging patterns of EVs in Norway (2030)
Impact of different charging patterns on
Norwegian distribution grid
Source: DNV GL, 2019
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Charge at night Afternoon charge when required Afternoon charge every day
Adjusted for asset age Not adjusted for asset age
Extra grid investments on a national level caused by different charging patterns
Managed charging can save up to 11 Billion NOK
BillionNOK
11 Billion NOK
Source: DNV GL, 2019
NOK
EUR [€]
=
10
1
Conversion:
9
Smart Charging eases burden on the grid caused by EVs
+ EV charging
+ Smart EV charging
Electricity load of Norwegian households on a cold winter day
Time of day (hour)
kWh/h
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
EV charging
Smart EV charging
No EVs
Source: DNV GL, 2019
10
Planned and existing ferry stations in central Norway
High density of electric ferries challenging network operators
Source: Mørenett, 2019
11
Typcial charging pattern of ferries during the day
Short stops lead to high power but low energy demand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
10:00 10:05 10:10 10:15 10:20 10:25 10:30 10:35 10:40 10:45 10:50 10:55
Power[kW]
Time
Typical charging pattern of ferries
12
Key takeaways from the Norway Way
Ferries and other vehicles with
a unique charging pattern can
cause additional challenges
Smart charging and intelligent
market design help avoiding high
grid investment costs
More investments in
distribution grids are required
and the effects are localised
Larger grid impact expected in
other markets with lower average
electricity load
Accelerating electrification of
transport drives new load and
charging infrastructure
requirements

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The Norway way: The electrification of the transport system of a whole nation. But can the grid handle it?

  • 1. The Norway way for grids: Electrifying the traffic system of a whole nation– but can the grid handle it?
  • 2. 2 Europe as a forerunner in globally rising EV sales Global EV market share uptake in new vehicle sales 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Europe North America, Greater China, OECD Pacific Indian sub continent Latin America, Middle East and North Africa, North East Eurasia, South East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa EVmarketsharenewvehiclesales Source: DNV GL Energy Transition Outlook 2018
  • 3. 3 Global power demand caused by electrification of transport EV uptake leads to additional electricity demand - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 Powerdemandfromtransport (TWh/year) Power demand from transport Source: DNV GL, 2019
  • 4. 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 EV Plug-in hybrid EV Total TotalnumberofnewEV Shareofnewregisteredcars[%] In Norway already in 2019 50% of new cars are EVs Number of new registrations and share of EVs in Norway Source: DNV GL, 2019
  • 5. 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2018 2025 2030 2018 2025 2030 Gasoline BEV - Home Charging Purchase price NOK/vehicle/year Registration duty NOK/vehicle/year Charging infrastructure NOK/vehicle/year Operation and maintenance NOK/vehicle/year Fuel/Energy NOK/vehicle/year Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle NOK/km EVs are still getting cheaper in the future Total cost of ownership comparison for Norway NOK EUR [€] = 10 1 Conversion:Source: DNV GL, 2019
  • 6. 6 Energy efficiency comparison of ICE and BEV Electric drivetrains provide higher energy efficiency than ICEs + 100% Fuel - 68-72% Engine losses - 0-2% Auxiliary Electrica l losses - 5-6% Drivetrain losses - 4-6% Parasitic losses Breaking 4-7% Rolling resistance 4-7% Wind resistance 8-12% - 16% Energy lost in charging + 100% Energy - 2.5% Parasitic losses - 16% Electric Drive system losses Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (Gasoline) Battery Electric Vehicle +17% regenerative breaking Breaking 22-23% Rolling resistance 22-23% Wind resistance 33-36% 16 - 25 % 65 + 17(rek) =82% Energy losses Energy input Used power to move vehicle down the road - 0-4% Auxiliary Electrica l losses Source: Graphical illustration by accilium, Data from US Department of Energy, 2019
  • 7. 7 Uncontrolled home charging with biggest impact on grid Charging patterns of EVs and their impact on the Norwegian distribution grid 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 65 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 19 2116 18 20 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 65 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 19 2116 18 20 22 23 24 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Time of day (hour) Time of day (hour) MWh/h MWh/h Home Fast At Work Total Without EVs Charge at night Afternoon charge everyday Afternoon charge when required Charging patterns of EVs in Norway (2030) Impact of different charging patterns on Norwegian distribution grid Source: DNV GL, 2019
  • 8. 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Charge at night Afternoon charge when required Afternoon charge every day Adjusted for asset age Not adjusted for asset age Extra grid investments on a national level caused by different charging patterns Managed charging can save up to 11 Billion NOK BillionNOK 11 Billion NOK Source: DNV GL, 2019 NOK EUR [€] = 10 1 Conversion:
  • 9. 9 Smart Charging eases burden on the grid caused by EVs + EV charging + Smart EV charging Electricity load of Norwegian households on a cold winter day Time of day (hour) kWh/h 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 EV charging Smart EV charging No EVs Source: DNV GL, 2019
  • 10. 10 Planned and existing ferry stations in central Norway High density of electric ferries challenging network operators Source: Mørenett, 2019
  • 11. 11 Typcial charging pattern of ferries during the day Short stops lead to high power but low energy demand 0 500 1000 1500 2000 10:00 10:05 10:10 10:15 10:20 10:25 10:30 10:35 10:40 10:45 10:50 10:55 Power[kW] Time Typical charging pattern of ferries
  • 12. 12 Key takeaways from the Norway Way Ferries and other vehicles with a unique charging pattern can cause additional challenges Smart charging and intelligent market design help avoiding high grid investment costs More investments in distribution grids are required and the effects are localised Larger grid impact expected in other markets with lower average electricity load Accelerating electrification of transport drives new load and charging infrastructure requirements