Lewis M. Fulton 2020 #Infra4Dev Conference: Decarbonizing Infrastructure www.worldbank.org/infra4dev2

1. Lewis M. Fulton
Director, Energy Futures Program, ITS-Davis
Infra4Dev Conference
November 18, 2020
Technology and Fuel Transition
Scenarios for Cars and Trucks

2. Public, electrified modes are optimal in long run
• A long-run private and societal cost comparison of
modes/technologies in the Philippines (Lopez et al, 2020)

3. Very low carbon futures: a major challenge, but achievable
• Transportation strategies for a 1. 5oC world: A comparison of
four countries (Arioli et al, 2020)
• Strong BAU growth
changed to
flat/declining via
modal shift and low-
carbon techs
• Of road vehicles,
trucking is most
challenging

4. Modal shift and technology adoption both critical
• CO2 reductions from BAU to 1.5c
scenarios have anywhere from 25% to
45% modal shift, rest from
vehicles/fuels
• Most of the
vehicle/fuel related
reductions come
from efficiency and
(after 2030)
electrification
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
BAU 1.5DS Delta BAU 1.5DS Delta BAU 1.5DS Delta BAU 1.5DS Delta
Brazil India Kenya Vietnam
tCO2 per capita by 2050
AVOID-SHIFT
IMPROVE
26%
74%
45%
56%
29%
71%
35%
65%

5. Truck decarbonization will be challenging
• Truck stocks are partially transitioned to electric by 2050, but
it is on-going
• Nearly all trucks are
at least hybridized
by 2050
• Electric trucks
dominate though
fuel cell trucks could
be important if a
commitment is
made to them

6. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
ZEV Market shares
Transit buses LDVs ZEV All trucks
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
LDV ZEV Market shares
BEV PHEV FCEV
Zero-emission vehicle futures: California Example
Year Class 2b-3 Class 4-8 Tractor
2025 7% 11% 7%
2030 30% 50% 30%
2035 55% 75% 40%
Trucks follow Advanced Clean Truck (ACT)
market share requirements through 2035
In 2040 we assume ZEV Sales share = 98%
• Required transition to ZEV-only sales by 2030 (buses), 2035 (LDVs), 2045
(trucks)
• Likely to be dominated by battery-electric vehicles, but PHEVs and fuel cells
could play a significant role as well

7. What happens as we transition to ZEVs?
• Example from California: Even a very rapid transition to ZEVs (e.g. all new
LDVs are ZEV by 2035), a lot of ICE vehicles will remain through 2045-2050
• The strong ramp-down in liquid fuels may need to be accompanied by a
strong ramp up in replacement of fossil liquids with very low-carbon liquids.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Billiongallonsgasolineequiv.
Fuel Use in One California Low-carbon Transition Scenario
Gasoline BBG Diesel BBD CNG Electricity H2

8. We may need a lot of bio or synthetic liquids
• In this scenario, California must replace both gasoline and corn
ethanol between 2030 and 2040.
• Cellulosic ethanol hits a blend wall at 15% by volume
• We end up needing nearly 3 billion gallons of “bio-gasoline” by 2040,
eventually going back down.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Billiongallonsgasolineequiv.
Low-carbon Scenario Gasoline Pool Components
Gasoline conv ethanol cellulosic ethanol Bio- or synthetic gasoline

9. Conclusions
• It is clear that multi-modalism, and minimizing private LDV
growth, is critical for hitting GHG targets along with many
other societal objectives
• Even with this, a steady transition to very low carbon vehicles
and fuels will be needed around the world
• This is likely to be focused on electrification, possibly including
fuel cell vehicles
• Liquid fuels will be with us a long time, and we will need to
decarbonize those as well, though biofuels are problematic
and synthetic fuels are expensive.