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RENEWABLE ENERGY & INNOVATION TOWARDS
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR ALL
Workshop. Milan, June 17, 2015
Electric systems & the growth of
renewable generation
Ignacio J. Pérez-Arriaga
CEEPR, MIT
Instituto de Investigación Tecnológica (IIT), Comillas University
2
The major current uncertainty
about the future of the power
sector relates to the
competition & collaboration
between the centralized an
decentralized paradigms
3
In the EU & the US…
Policy Game Changers: The Energy
Union
“…we have to move away from an
economy driven by fossil fuels, an
economy where energy is based on a
centralized, supply-side approach
and which relies on old technologies
and outdated business models. We
have to empower consumers
through providing them with
information, choice and through
creating flexibility to manage
demand as well as supply.”
4
New York REV
“…distributed energy resources
will become integral tools in the
planning, management and
operation of the electric system.
The system values of distributed
resources will be monetized in a
market, placing DER on a
competitive par with centralized
options.”
5
The presence of distributed energy resources
“Small and medium-size installations of less than 30
kV have dominated Germany's solar expansion in
recent years, so that 70 percent to total PV capacity
is now connected to the low-voltage grid. "In some
low-voltage grids," they say, "the installed PV
capacity can even exceed the peak load by a factor of
ten.”
IEEE's Power and Energy Magazine (March-April, 2013, devoted to solar energy)
Fraunhoffer ISE
Solar generation in California hit a new daily record of 6,078
MW on May 31. 2015, according to the state's grid operator,
besting the previous record set just two weeks before.
7
Let’s focus on another aspect
of the centralized vs.
decentralized struggle:
The off-grid vs. on-grid
dilemma in the provision of
electricity access in
developing countries
8
In the mountains of
Cajamarca in Peru…
Isolated rural community in Cajamarca (Peru). Example of dispersed population.
Source: Julio Eisman. Acciona Foundation. Peru Microenergia.
Isolated rural community in Cajamarca (Peru). Example of dispersed population.
Electrified by Peru Microenergia. Acciona Foundation.
Isolated rural community in Cajamarca (Peru). Example of dispersed population.
Electrified by Peru Microenergia. Acciona Foundation.
Isolated rural community in Cajamarca
(Peru). Example of dispersed population.
Electrified by Peru Microenergia.
Acciona Foundation.
13
Could we figure out a regulatory
approach (technical, social, financial,
environmentally sound) that makes
sense to provide electricity access
under these conditions?
14
In a village of the state
of Uttar Pradesh (India)
…
15
A single PV panel & battery for the entire village…
Uttar Pradesh, India, July 2014
16
… using the trees as support for the cables…
17
… and not far away from the existing power grid
18
How come the village is poorly
electrified by an independent &
unregulated entrepreneur
company, instead of being
connected to the nearby grid?
19
In the village of Karambi,
district of Mutete, in
Rwanda…
20
… and not far away from the existing power gridKarambi village on the top of a hill
… and not far away from the existing power gridThe health center
… and not far away from the existing power gridThe secondary school
… and not far away from the existing power gridWater reservoir
… and not far away from the existing power gridCommunity center
… and not far away from the existing power gridPrimary school
26
How to make the case that the
electrification of the school & the
surrounding area is an attractive
business model for potential
investors?
And for all villages with a school
in Rwanda (global 22% electrification)?
27
Three major gaps regarding universal
energy access
Equity, ambition &
opportunity
28
The three gaps in energy access
 The equity gap (the ethical dimension)
“It is shameful & unacceptable that today today billions of
people lack access to the most basic energy services”
(International Energy Agency, WEO, Nov-2010)
 The opportunity gap (the business dimension)
“There is another way to look at the challenge: energy
access as an opportunity for business”
(“From gap to opportunity”, International Finance Corporation)
 The ambition gap (the technical dimension)
“The world’s poor need more than a token supply of
electricity. The goal should be to provide the power
necessary to boost productivity and raise living standards”
(Morgan Bazilian, Roger Pielke, 2013)
29
What does it mean to have
“access to electricity”?
30
The meaning of “access”
 To be “connected” to the main grid? To allow bare
minimum consumption? As much electricity as
similar people with access? As much as you can
afford? How about productive & community uses?
 A grid connection may seem like the ideal, but in
reality, the grid may not provide very many
hours of service per day
− In the District of Bihar in India, households only received 1.3
hours of service per day in bad months, and 6.3 hours in
good months.
 Off-grid systems, like solar home systems and
micro-grids, can provide more predictable
electricity supply, but typically only a few hours
Example: Electrification planning results
for the district of Vaishali (Bihar, India; 400,000
households)
32
33
34
Is there an “opportunity
gap”?
And how to make it effective
35
Understanding the utility
function
 The demand-price curve describes the response of
demand to price
Consumers are willing to pay a high price for the
most essential electricity services
36
This electricity supply is not subsidized
Uttar Pradesh, India, July 2014
At the very basic level of consumption, lack of
access may have a strong financial component
Addressable market for modern energy
products and services
Source: IFC, “From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access”, May 2012. Figure A.1
39
Off-grid facilities are being deployed
in many developing countries outside
the scope of regulation
Should off-grid power
supply be regulated?
40
Should off-grid power supply be
regulated?
NO, because the lack of regulation provides
more opportunities for electrification &
entrepreneurs may come up with new ideas
to reduce costs & to improve service
41
Should off-grid power supply be
regulated?
YES, because the lack of regulation with
result in chaos in the multiplicity of
technologies, abuse of monopolistic power &
poor quality of the facilities
42
Should off-grid power supply be
regulated?
 Consequences of lack of regulation
− Non-standard & non-grid compatible technologies
➜Investor is exposed to risk of grid connection
➜Pressure to recover investment costs ASAP
➜Wasted assets if grid connection happens
➜Local (renewable?) generation will be replaced by
centralized generation mix
− Possibility of monopolistic behavior &/or poor quality
of service
− May lock-in limited supply technology  permanent
poverty condition
43
How could regulation help?
 Unregulated off-grid electrification helps people &,
also, cannot be fully avoided, beyond general
safety standards
− For instance, new technologies (solar power kits)
allow the provision of electricity to become just a
house appliance
 But regulation can create incentives to deploy
grid-compatible off-grid solutions in those
places where the grid may arrive
− Otherwise, those mostly renewable-based assets
will be replaced by a coal-dominated generation mix
Share of electricity generation by source &
selected regions (New policies scenario)
Source: IEA WEO 2014
45
Grid-compatible microgrids
How could regulation help?
 Establish minimum technical requirements for
grid compatibility
− If grid connection eventually happens, the entrepreneur
will be compensated for the cost of the grid & will
become an independent generator
 Entrepreneur will be paid a regulated efficient cost
− Consumers would pay an affordable tariff (e.g. same
social tariff as those grid-connected)
− The difference with respect of the actual cost of supply
will be covered by a subsidy, which could be obtained
from a levy in all the remaining tariffs or other means
46
Universal electricity access
is the new frontier of
regulation of the power
sector!!!
47
Thank you for your attention

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Ignacio Perez Arriaga, MIT Boston - Università Pontificia Comillas Madrid

  • 1. RENEWABLE ENERGY & INNOVATION TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR ALL Workshop. Milan, June 17, 2015 Electric systems & the growth of renewable generation Ignacio J. Pérez-Arriaga CEEPR, MIT Instituto de Investigación Tecnológica (IIT), Comillas University
  • 2. 2 The major current uncertainty about the future of the power sector relates to the competition & collaboration between the centralized an decentralized paradigms
  • 3. 3 In the EU & the US…
  • 4. Policy Game Changers: The Energy Union “…we have to move away from an economy driven by fossil fuels, an economy where energy is based on a centralized, supply-side approach and which relies on old technologies and outdated business models. We have to empower consumers through providing them with information, choice and through creating flexibility to manage demand as well as supply.” 4
  • 5. New York REV “…distributed energy resources will become integral tools in the planning, management and operation of the electric system. The system values of distributed resources will be monetized in a market, placing DER on a competitive par with centralized options.” 5
  • 6. The presence of distributed energy resources “Small and medium-size installations of less than 30 kV have dominated Germany's solar expansion in recent years, so that 70 percent to total PV capacity is now connected to the low-voltage grid. "In some low-voltage grids," they say, "the installed PV capacity can even exceed the peak load by a factor of ten.” IEEE's Power and Energy Magazine (March-April, 2013, devoted to solar energy) Fraunhoffer ISE Solar generation in California hit a new daily record of 6,078 MW on May 31. 2015, according to the state's grid operator, besting the previous record set just two weeks before.
  • 7. 7 Let’s focus on another aspect of the centralized vs. decentralized struggle: The off-grid vs. on-grid dilemma in the provision of electricity access in developing countries
  • 8. 8 In the mountains of Cajamarca in Peru…
  • 9. Isolated rural community in Cajamarca (Peru). Example of dispersed population. Source: Julio Eisman. Acciona Foundation. Peru Microenergia.
  • 10. Isolated rural community in Cajamarca (Peru). Example of dispersed population. Electrified by Peru Microenergia. Acciona Foundation.
  • 11. Isolated rural community in Cajamarca (Peru). Example of dispersed population. Electrified by Peru Microenergia. Acciona Foundation.
  • 12. Isolated rural community in Cajamarca (Peru). Example of dispersed population. Electrified by Peru Microenergia. Acciona Foundation.
  • 13. 13 Could we figure out a regulatory approach (technical, social, financial, environmentally sound) that makes sense to provide electricity access under these conditions?
  • 14. 14 In a village of the state of Uttar Pradesh (India) …
  • 15. 15 A single PV panel & battery for the entire village… Uttar Pradesh, India, July 2014
  • 16. 16 … using the trees as support for the cables…
  • 17. 17 … and not far away from the existing power grid
  • 18. 18 How come the village is poorly electrified by an independent & unregulated entrepreneur company, instead of being connected to the nearby grid?
  • 19. 19 In the village of Karambi, district of Mutete, in Rwanda…
  • 20. 20 … and not far away from the existing power gridKarambi village on the top of a hill
  • 21. … and not far away from the existing power gridThe health center
  • 22. … and not far away from the existing power gridThe secondary school
  • 23. … and not far away from the existing power gridWater reservoir
  • 24. … and not far away from the existing power gridCommunity center
  • 25. … and not far away from the existing power gridPrimary school
  • 26. 26 How to make the case that the electrification of the school & the surrounding area is an attractive business model for potential investors? And for all villages with a school in Rwanda (global 22% electrification)?
  • 27. 27 Three major gaps regarding universal energy access Equity, ambition & opportunity
  • 28. 28 The three gaps in energy access  The equity gap (the ethical dimension) “It is shameful & unacceptable that today today billions of people lack access to the most basic energy services” (International Energy Agency, WEO, Nov-2010)  The opportunity gap (the business dimension) “There is another way to look at the challenge: energy access as an opportunity for business” (“From gap to opportunity”, International Finance Corporation)  The ambition gap (the technical dimension) “The world’s poor need more than a token supply of electricity. The goal should be to provide the power necessary to boost productivity and raise living standards” (Morgan Bazilian, Roger Pielke, 2013)
  • 29. 29 What does it mean to have “access to electricity”?
  • 30. 30 The meaning of “access”  To be “connected” to the main grid? To allow bare minimum consumption? As much electricity as similar people with access? As much as you can afford? How about productive & community uses?  A grid connection may seem like the ideal, but in reality, the grid may not provide very many hours of service per day − In the District of Bihar in India, households only received 1.3 hours of service per day in bad months, and 6.3 hours in good months.  Off-grid systems, like solar home systems and micro-grids, can provide more predictable electricity supply, but typically only a few hours
  • 31. Example: Electrification planning results for the district of Vaishali (Bihar, India; 400,000 households)
  • 32. 32
  • 33. 33
  • 34. 34 Is there an “opportunity gap”? And how to make it effective
  • 35. 35 Understanding the utility function  The demand-price curve describes the response of demand to price Consumers are willing to pay a high price for the most essential electricity services
  • 36. 36 This electricity supply is not subsidized Uttar Pradesh, India, July 2014
  • 37. At the very basic level of consumption, lack of access may have a strong financial component
  • 38. Addressable market for modern energy products and services Source: IFC, “From gap to opportunity: Business models for scaling up energy access”, May 2012. Figure A.1
  • 39. 39 Off-grid facilities are being deployed in many developing countries outside the scope of regulation Should off-grid power supply be regulated?
  • 40. 40 Should off-grid power supply be regulated? NO, because the lack of regulation provides more opportunities for electrification & entrepreneurs may come up with new ideas to reduce costs & to improve service
  • 41. 41 Should off-grid power supply be regulated? YES, because the lack of regulation with result in chaos in the multiplicity of technologies, abuse of monopolistic power & poor quality of the facilities
  • 42. 42 Should off-grid power supply be regulated?  Consequences of lack of regulation − Non-standard & non-grid compatible technologies ➜Investor is exposed to risk of grid connection ➜Pressure to recover investment costs ASAP ➜Wasted assets if grid connection happens ➜Local (renewable?) generation will be replaced by centralized generation mix − Possibility of monopolistic behavior &/or poor quality of service − May lock-in limited supply technology  permanent poverty condition
  • 43. 43 How could regulation help?  Unregulated off-grid electrification helps people &, also, cannot be fully avoided, beyond general safety standards − For instance, new technologies (solar power kits) allow the provision of electricity to become just a house appliance  But regulation can create incentives to deploy grid-compatible off-grid solutions in those places where the grid may arrive − Otherwise, those mostly renewable-based assets will be replaced by a coal-dominated generation mix
  • 44. Share of electricity generation by source & selected regions (New policies scenario) Source: IEA WEO 2014
  • 45. 45 Grid-compatible microgrids How could regulation help?  Establish minimum technical requirements for grid compatibility − If grid connection eventually happens, the entrepreneur will be compensated for the cost of the grid & will become an independent generator  Entrepreneur will be paid a regulated efficient cost − Consumers would pay an affordable tariff (e.g. same social tariff as those grid-connected) − The difference with respect of the actual cost of supply will be covered by a subsidy, which could be obtained from a levy in all the remaining tariffs or other means
  • 46. 46 Universal electricity access is the new frontier of regulation of the power sector!!!
  • 47. 47 Thank you for your attention

Editor's Notes

  1. Related to webinar for FSR MOOC course June 2015, Lima talk, December 2014 MIT Spring term course, Universal access.
  2. There are more and more policy papers are announcing the impending transformations of the power system
  3. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  4. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  5. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  6. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  7. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  8. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  9. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  10. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  11. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  12. Electrification just to meet the basic illumination needs of a household or a society may not provide adequate catalytic support for the economic and social development of a society. An essential requirement for resolving the electricity access problems is to ensure electricity supply that spurs economic activities which in turn can provide income generation opportunities for the communities. Source: DIFFERGROUP.com, The way towards universal access - Putting value on electricity services, Nov-2013.
  13. Source: http://theenergycollective.com/e4dev Partricia Levi and Yael Borofsky. What Does 'Energy Access' Even Mean Anyway?
  14. <Source: Springer book, Chapter 2.2.1 Aggregating the amounts that all consumers would be willing to purchase at each price (horizontal sum of all consumers' marginal utility) yields the demand curve, shown in Figure 2-1, which relates the demand for a product and its price. This curve shows that the demand of all the buyers for a product increases when its price drops, as more consumers are willing to buy it. Therefore this curve should have a negative slope, as illustrated in the figure. This diminishing marginal utility for consumers is common to all markets and is simple to understand. For instance, since the first megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity consumed by a factory is used to power the facilities deployed in its most productive activities, its utility is very high, whereas the final MWh consumed by the same factory might be used to power the car park lighting or some similar low priority application. When consumers have no way of experiencing the price of electricity in real time (this is the case of all consumers with traditional meters), the curve of demand of electricity is vertical, since the demand is completely inelastic. Since demand is unresponsive to price, a regulatory intervention is needed to set the market price in case supply is not able to meet demand. In most systems the regulator simply establishes a price cap, which tries to represent in a single number the value of the loss of utility for an average consumer of giving up electricity consumption. This is obviously a crude approximation, since the “value of lost load” depends on the nature of the consumer, the time of the day, the amount of forgone consumption or the anticipation in the notification of the curtailment. The shape of the upper section of the demand curve in Figure 2-1 and the non-completely vertical middle section try to convey the idea of the response of a mix of diverse consumers with different levels of knowledge about the real time prices. The lower section shows how demand saturates and cannot grow beyond a certain value, even if the electricity price becomes zero.
  15. Source: July 2014, visit to villages in U.P.
  16. SPL: small pico lighting system, I guess CFLs started it – now LEDs, integrated systems, small batteries, small panels…small cost. $12-$50. Cash business – no credit. at $30/HH it would cost $0.45B. Even at 2 lanterns per HH – less than $1B. This makes more sense as a minimum strategy. Lighting Africa and the things they are doing to improve quality, lower costs, create standards and certification. Impact of CFL, then LED. Impact of lithium ion batteries. Integrated phone charges, radios etc. Is there a future for “Heating Africa”?
  17. Household spending on lighting and electricity: In total, annual global expenditures of unelectrifi ed households on lighting and electricity amount to about $19 billion. If we use the distribution in terms of monthly expenditure of about 274 million unelectrified households per month, it is possible to deduce from this distribution the number of households spending more than a certain amount on lighting and electricity, as in figure A.1.
  18. Source: http://theenergycollective.com/e4dev Partricia Levi and Yael Borofsky. What Does 'Energy Access' Even Mean Anyway?
  19. Source: http://theenergycollective.com/e4dev Partricia Levi and Yael Borofsky. What Does 'Energy Access' Even Mean Anyway?
  20. Source: IEA WEO 2014