What are the prospects for achieving SDG2: Ending Hunger: possible for caloric adequacy but uncertain for access to food diversity, especially micro-nutrient rich food. Ending all forms of malnutrition: declines in the incidence of child stunting & wasting, but sharp rise in obesity rates. Double small farm productivity: unlikely for the least developed countries & lagging regions in emerging economies.

1. Food Systems Futures & the SDGs:
Can we get to zero hunger & rural
prosperity by 2030
PRABHU PINGALI
PROFESSOR OF APPLIED ECONOMICS
AND
DIRECTOR
TATA-CORNELL INSTITUTE FOR AGRICULTURE AND
NUTRITION
CORNELL UNIVERSITY
ICRISAT GLOBAL PLANNING MEETING 2019

3. The Post-2015 Development Agenda links
hunger, nutrition and agriculture under the SDG
framework…

4. Goal 2: Zero Hunger
Specific Targets for 2030
2.1: End hunger & ensure access to safe, nutritious & sufficient
food
2.2: End all forms of malnutrition, including child stunting &
wasting by 2025
2.3: Double agricultural productivity & incomes of small scale
producers
2.4: Ensure sustainable production systems & adaptation to
climate change & extreme weather events
2.5: Maintain genetic diversity of cultivated plants &
domesticated animals

5. Smallholder farms are central
to achieving SDG2
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
South Asia
East Asia and Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North
Africa
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Average Share of Agricultural Holdings by Land Size Class
= or <2 ha 2-10 ha 10-20 ha >20 ha
Data Source: FAO

6. Source: West. P.C, et al., Nov 2010, “Trading Carbon for Food: Global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land”.
PNAS, vol. 107, no. 46, 19647
Cropland distribution and average annual yield
February 14, 2019
© 2011 BILL & MELINDA GATES
FOUNDATION |
Significant Opportunities to Boost Productivity

7. A “Perfect Storm” of Global
Threats & Challenges
 Rising urbanization and changing demographic structure of rural
populations
 Changing diets & rapid rise in over-nutrition and epidemic of NCDs
even as malnutrition rates remain high
 Global environmental and sustainability challenges, including
climate shocks and extreme events
 Trade integration and declining competitiveness of developing
country agriculture

8. Towards an urbanized world with higher
incomes
WHO/GLOBAL HEALTH OBSERVATORY DATA
16

9. Diets are changing across the Developing
World
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1969-…
1989-…
2011-…
1969-…
1989-…
2011-…
1969-…
1989-…
2011-…
1969-…
1989-…
2011-…
1969-…
1989-…
2011-…
Kenya Nigeria Colombia China India
kcal/capita/day
Fruits,
vegetables,
other
Meat, eggs,
animal fat
Pulses
Sugar and
sweetners
Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets

10. Transformation of Urban FoodMarkets
Photo Sources
Left photos: Kiera Crowley
Top photo: https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2017/01/16/india-
supermarkets-gain-from-demonetization-pain/

11. Urbanization & changing diets –
implications for SDG2
 A shift from agriculture as a “way of life” to “agriculture as a
business”
 “Provisioning the Cities” provides new growth opportunities
for smallholders
 High transactions costs could exclude lagging regions and
asset poor communities from integrating into urban food
value chains
 Rising consumption of processed & convenience food could
lead to increasing obesity trends in LDCs, even with gains in
under nutrition

12. Most global burden of disease
risk factors are linked to diet

13. Food Systems for Better Nutrition &
Health
Diversifying from staple grain focused agriculture towards a
nutrition-sensitive food system can help address all dimensions
of malnutrition
Advances in genomics and molecular biology targeted towards
enhancing nutritive value of crops, particularly for the less
commonly researched crops
International R&D could draw on advances in food technology being
developed by advanced country public and private systems.
Plant based meats and “clean meat” innovations

14. Globalization & the declining competitiveness
of domestic agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: State of Commodity Markets 2018, FAO

15. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
 Poor countries will be hit the hardest:
 Very little known of the adverse impacts of CC on crops and resources important to the poor
 Risks to existing cropping patterns (especially in more arid regions) not adequately studied
Projected changes in agricultural production in 2080 due to climate change
Source: Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2011

16. Increase in Climatic Uncertainties
Frequency of Droughts Globally
Frequency of Floods Globally
Source: Natural Disasters- EMDAT 2017

17. Food Security Impacts of Climate Change
 Increased cost of production – disease ecology change in
plants and animals
 Income losses due to yield reduction and post harvest
losses
 Even crops suited for warmer climates will see a drop in
yields
 Food price fluctuations especially higher value nutritious
crops
 Diversification can have both +ve and –ve green house gas
effects
 International trade can buffer domestic supplies and prices

18. Towards Sustainable Intensification
 Role of modern science and
technology with “big data” tools, ICT
and precision agriculture
 Advances in renewable energy
sources could contribute to efficiency
of energy use and sustainable
resource use
 Adaptation to smaller scales is a
major challenge for research and
technology design

19. Evolving Organization of the
R&D System
Growing number of non-traditional players in the food and
agriculture innovation space.
Continued amalgamation of bioscience companies and
food industry can hamper technology access for the
poor.
Can the CGIAR continue to be a conduit for technology
access, adaptation and delivery to small farm systems?

20. Small farm success also
depends on the other SDGs
Small producer agriculture
Poverty goals Environmental goalsNutrition goals
Goal 1:
No poverty
Goal 8:
Decent work and
economic growth
Social goals
Goal 2:
Zero hunger
Goal 3:
Good health and
wellbeing
Goal 5:
Gender equality
Goal 10:
Reduce inequality
within and among
countries
Goal 12:
Responsible
production and
consumption
Goal 13:
Climate action
Goal 15:
Life on land

21. What are the prospects for
achieving SDG2
Ending Hunger: possible for caloric adequacy but uncertain for access to
food diversity, especially micro-nutrient rich food.
Ending all forms of malnutrition: declines in the incidence of child
stunting & wasting, but sharp rise in obesity rates.
Double small farm productivity: unlikely for the least developed
countries & lagging regions in emerging economies.
Adaptation to Climate Change: Unlikely for small farms in arid zones &
flood risk areas.
Sustainable Production Systems: possible where policies are right &
where technology adaptation to smaller scales is possible.

22. Open Access to the electronic
edition available at:
https://www.worldscientific.com
/worldscibooks/10.1142/11212