The document summarizes information from the 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure. It discusses topics including population growth and distribution, natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, and landslides. It also discusses concepts of risk, vulnerability and resilience. Key data is presented on fatalities and economic losses from major natural disasters between 1980-2014. The importance of investment in prevention versus response is highlighted. The goal of the conference is to reduce risks from natural hazards through greater public awareness, professional guidance, and political pressure.

1. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Regions – Hazards – People
Ramon Gilsanz, SE, F.SEI

2. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Center for International Earth
Science Information Network
Information
Resources
Munich Reinsurance

3. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University)

4. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population
Historic Growth
Population Reference Bureau (in Yeats)
Sanitation

5. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population
Development
Population Reference Bureau (in Yeats)

6. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population
Urban vs. Rural
UN Population Division
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
WorldPopulation(inBillions)
Rural Population
Urban Population
Total Population

7. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Tectonic Plates
and Fault Lines
Yeats, R. “Earthquake Time Bombs”

8. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Geophysical Hazard
Munich RE, NATHAN 2014

9. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University) & Munich RE, NATHAN 2014
Geophysical Hazard

10. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
World Mining
InfoMine Inc.

11. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University), Munich RE, NATHAN 2014 & InfoMine Inc.
World Mining
Geophysical Hazard

12. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Risk = Hazard x Consequence Cost
Vulnerability:
World Risk Index
Prof. Michael Fardis said: “don’t consider
the probability” (Black Swan)
Prof. I. Towhata said: “don’t believe in the
cost-benefit analysis”

13. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Risk = Exposure x Vulnerability
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability:
World Risk Index
++x
Exposure
to Natural Hazards
Susceptibility
Likelihood of
Suffering Harm
Coping
Capacity to Reduce
Negative Impacts
Adaptation
Capacity for
Long-Term Change
Measures a country’s
exposure, resiliency, response
to an event, and preparedness
for future events

14. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Exposure
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability:
World Risk Index
++x
Exposure
to Natural Hazards
Susceptibility
Likelihood of
Suffering Harm
Coping
Capacity to Reduce
Negative Impacts
Adaptation
Capacity for
Long-Term Change
• Earthquakes
• Storms
• Floods
• Droughts
• Sea level rise

15. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Susceptibility
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability:
World Risk Index
++x
Exposure
to Natural Hazards
Susceptibility
Likelihood of
Suffering Harm
Coping
Capacity to Reduce
Negative Impacts
Adaptation
Capacity for
Long-Term Change
• Health and Sanitation
• Quality of Construction
(Housing / Slums)
• Nutrition
• Poverty
• Economy (GDP)

16. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Coping
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability:
World Risk Index
++x
Exposure
to Natural Hazards
Susceptibility
Likelihood of
Suffering Harm
Coping
Capacity to Reduce
Negative Impacts
Adaptation
Capacity for
Long-Term Change
• Good Governance
• Disaster Preparedness
• Medical Services
• Social & Physical Networks
• Insurance

17. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Adaptation
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability:
World Risk Index
++x
Exposure
to Natural Hazards
Susceptibility
Likelihood of
Suffering Harm
Coping
Capacity to Reduce
Negative Impacts
Adaptation
Capacity for
Long-Term Change
• Education
• Gender Equity
• Environmental Regulation
• Building Codes & Strategies
• Investment

18. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Vulnerability: World Risk Index
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014

19. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University) & UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability: World Risk Index

20. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Geophysical Loss Assessment (1980-2013)
Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 2014

21. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Other Natural Disasters (2014)
Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 2015

22. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Global Loss Events
1980 – 2014
(by Hazard)
Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE
21,700 Loss events 1,740,000 Fatalities
Overall losses
US$ 4,200bn
Insured losses
US$ 1,100bn
Meteorological events
(Tropical storm, extratropical
storm, convective storm,
local storm)
Hydrological
events
(Flood, mass
movement)
Climatological
events
(Extreme temperature,
drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events
(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic activity)
22%
40%
25%
13%
11%
71%
10%
8%
12%
41%
36%
11%
51%
25%
13%
10%

23. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Global Loss Events
1980 – 2014
(by Income Group)
Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE
21,700 Loss events 1,740,000 Fatalities
Overall losses
US$ 4,200bn
Insured losses
US$ 1,100bn
High income
GNI > US$12,745
(per capita)
High/middle income
GNI US$4,126 - 12,745
(per capita)
Low/middle income
GNI US$1,046 - 4,125
(per capita)
Low income
GNI < US$1,045
(per capita)
44%
17%
23%
16%
8%
8%
33%
51%
61%
12%
16%
11%
92%
5%
2%
1%

24. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
World’s investment
in disaster prevention
=
1% world’s investment
in disaster response and
recovery
GeoHazards International
Prevention and
Response

25. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
FEMA Mitigation Grants
Every dollar spent on prevention
saves more in disaster losses
• Earthquakes 1.4 : 1
• Wind 4.7 : 1
• Flood 5.1 : 1
ASCE Natural Hazards Review
Prevention and
Response

26. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Odds of having 2500 year
event in 200 years
• Probability of occurring in any given
year: 1/2475 = 0.000404 (USGS)
• Probability of not occurring in any
given year (1 – 0.000404 = 0.9996)
• Probability of not occurring in 200
years. 0.9996^200 = 0.922 (92.2%)
• Probability of occurring in 200 years
(100% - 92.2% = 7.8%)

27. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Source: USGS
Magnitude
Change
Ground Motion
Change Energy
Change
(Displacement)
2 100 times 1,000 times
1 10.0 times 32 times
0.5 3.2 times 5.5 times
0.3 2.0 times 3 times
0.1 1.3 times 1.4 times
Source: CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (via earthquake-report.com)
Japan Chile Ecuador Haiti US US New Zealand
Earthquake: Tohoku Maule Pedernales Port au Prince Loma Prieta Northridge Christchurch
2011 2010 2016 2010 1989 1994 2011
Magnitude: M 9.0 M 8.8 M 7.8 M 7.0 M 6.9 M 6.7 M 6.3
Intensity: IX (Violent) IX (Violent) VIII (Severe) X (Extreme) IX (Violent) IX (Violent) X (Extreme)
15,894 Dead 525 Dead 663 Dead 160-200K Dead 63 Dead 57 Dead 177 Dead
Life Loss: 6,152 Injured 28,775 Injured (est.) 3,757 Injured 8,700 Injured 2,164 Injured
2,562 Missing 25 Missing 9 Missing 4 Missing
Economic Loss: $122-$235 Billion $30 Billion $3 Billion $2.3 Billion $5.6-$6 Billion $13-$40 Billion $15-$20 Billion
Earthquake Losses

28. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Haiti – Chile
Earthquakes
Lethality Comparison
Haitian Earthquake Chilean Earthquake
11% “strongly shaken” died 0.1% “strongly shaken” died
GeoHazards International

29. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Goal

30. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
What can we do
to reduce risk?
• Become personally aware
• Advise the profession
• Inform the public
• Create political pressure
In the meantime…
Goal

31. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Thank you