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2017 Autonomous Vehicle Presentation Package
- 1. Requesting a Ride: CarSharing and Car Hailing as The Next Big Movement in Autonomy Annabel R. Chang, Director of Public Policy
- 2. Imagine a neighborhoodthat has no cars parked on the sides of the streets. In a downtown area, you can have wider sidewalks. Cities can be built more around people. - Logan Green, Lyft CEO, Co-Founder
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- 4. The average vehicle isonly used 4% of the time.
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- 16. By 2025, privatecar ownership will all-but end in major U.S. cities.
- 18. Within five years afully autonomous fleet of cars will provide the majority of Lyft rides across the country
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- 27. The transition toan autonomous future will not occur primarily through individually owned cars. It will be both more practical and appealing to access autonomous vehicles when they are part of Lyft’s networked fleet. - John Zimmer, Lyft President, Co-Founder
- 29. User Experience inAutomated Driving Glen W. De Vos Chief Technology Officer and Senior Vice President
- 30. New Concepts inAutomated Driving User Experience 2 Rapid development in different domains from Highway pilot systems to urban PODs AD Technology Speed of Innovation Complete New Interaction A new role for drivers and passengers with increasing automation Safety & Experience Dual Design Multiple Domains Multi-Disciplinary Learning HMI Prototyping across pioneering Automated Mobility concepts Future Interactive Systems New Paradigms AI, Robotics, Social Design and across multiple Automotive Product Lines
- 31. Consumer Needs 3 Simple &Intuitive 70% of consumers are more likely to recommend a brand because its simple. Emotions & DelightSafety Wrapping AV systems complexity in simplicity Meet highest expectations in all operational scenarios Enhanced driving experience -Siegel & Gale Simplicity Index 2014
- 32. Fundamentals of AutomatedDriving Experience 4 Missed Exit Visibility Trust Relationship Intuitive insight into AV’s decision making and maneuvers Understanding and trusting AV capability in nuance scenarios Working as a human- machine team to achieve goals in sync
- 33. Socializing New Technology 5 AcceptanceSociety Integration Enriching Passenger Experience Acceptance of new roles and vehicle behaviors as AD technology transitions AV integration into a city and its social interactions with vehicles, pedestrians Pre-Ride, Post Ride First Mile / Last Mile Parking Pain Points
- 34. Transitional Approach -Automated Driving Design 6 High Low Design Sprints Focus Automated Vehicle Capability Trust & Relationship Acceptance & Society Integration Enriching travel experience Building blocks based on priority and core fundamentals Transitioning without oversimplification of human factors Transitional Approach as AD Technology evolves
- 35. CES 2016 Prototyping usecases 7
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- 37. Prototyped Areas -2016 9 Human Vehicle Relationship Role of Driver Re-engagement Transitions Dialog Communications Feedback Driver to Vehicle (and vice versa) Trust & Visibility AV next maneuver and decision making Trust over time Environment visualizations
- 38. Prototyped Areas -2016 10 Ecosystem Interactions Vehicle to Pedestrian Behavior AV to Manual Vehicles Social Acceptance Social Cues and Rules Creating Delight Going beyond travel from A to B points Passenger needs during travel Passenger lifestyle integration pre, post ride We’re crossing the street Thanks for the warning we’ll prepare to stop to let you cross safely I’m green for the next 5 seconds I’m slowing down preparing to stop
- 39. Design Takeaways 11 On-road experienceprototyping Multiple sprints of early experimentation & user testing Certain human factors (e.g. Trust) calibrate over time and scenarios Insights from the road Not all in the interfaces In addition to intelligence conveyed by HMI, the physical reactions of vehicle to surrounding has a huge constant impact on how humans perceive AV capability
- 40. User Experience Designfor Smart City Mobility 12 Passenger Safety Comfort Driverless Systems Maintenance Cleanliness Driverless Systems Design of new services on demand Social Interactions Road Etiquettes Operations of city, residents and infrastructure Additional ecosystems influence Smart City Integrate multiple information and communication technology (ICT) Internet of things (IoT) Interconnected digital ecosystem Virtualized city model Secure connection to mobility People and Logistics Autonomous Mobility Version 1
- 41. User Experience Designfor Smart City Mobility 13 Passenger Safety and Comfort Driverless Systems Maintenance Cleanliness Driverless Systems Design of new services on demand Social Interactions Road Etiquettes Operations of city, residents and infrastructure Additional ecosystems influence Version 2
- 42. AMoD Demo Prototyping toOperational Pilot 14
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- 44. Designing for newsocial interactions 16 Hailing your AV Hailing AV from a crowded curb Identification of your AV amongst multiple AVs 4 Wheel Steering Social Acceptance of new vehicle movements New Vehicle Intention Methods
- 45. Final Thoughts 17 Holistic Experienceinstead of HMI features list Understanding of connected ecosystems Social interactions inside and outside vehicle Early prototyping and experimental to discover pain points Learning from multi-disciplinary fields such as Human Robotics, AI Understanding consumer pre-conceptions of autonomy Going beyond operations to enriching passenger experience AD Experience Design : Non-Traditional Approach
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- 47. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES SILICON VALLEY AUTOMATED DRIVING LEADERBOARD: WHO’S DRIVING THE AUTONOMOUS FRONTIER? MAR. 2, 2017 SAM ABUELSAMID SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST
- 48. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2 BUILDING INNOVATIONS Intelligent Building Management Systems Energy Efficient Buildings Lighting Innovations Smart Cities Residential Energy Innovations RESEARCH SERVICES TRANSPORTATION EFFICIENCIES UTILITY TRANSFORMATIONS ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES Wind Energy Grid-Tied Energy Storage Advanced Battery Innovations Microgrids Distributed Natural Gas Distributed Energy Storage Electric Vehicles Fuel Efficiency and Emerging Technologies Mobility Transportation Forecast Internet of Things Connected Grid Digital Grid Dynamic Grid Demand-Side Management Digital Utility Strategies DER Strategies
- 49. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3 RISING URBANIZATION = RESOURCE CHALLENGES • Over half the world’s population resides in urban areas today; expected to reach 66% by 2050 - Approximately 2.5 billion more urban residents by 2050 • The costs of urbanization: - Air quality problems - Congestion - Lost time • Urbanization coupled with disruptive on-demand mobility and autonomous vehicles will reshape the urban transportation landscape Traffic in Beijing (Source: Flickr - Safia Osman)
- 50. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4 VEHICLE POPULATION CONTINUES TO GROW • The global total of light duty vehicles (LDVs) in use is projected to approach 1.9 billion in the next 20 years Global LDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035 (Source: Navigant Research)
- 51. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5 2025: Emerging Technologies TRANSPORTATION LANDSCAPE (2025-2050) • By the mid-21st century, today’s siloed technologies will converge into an on-demand mobility ecosystem 2050: Integrated Systems ON-DEMAND MOBILITY ELECTRIFICATION VEHICLE CONNECTIVITY DRIVER ASSISTANCE (Source: Navigant Research)
- 52. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE BENEFITS (Source: Honda) • Traffic management enhancement - Less traffic congestion; reduce/eliminate need for inner city parking - Enhanced social mobility for elderly and infirm - Significant reduction in accidents; faster average journey times - Autonomous freight delivery in off-peak hours - Platooning can allow greater capacity on existing roads, leading to more efficient freeways - Lower overall vehicle emissions • New business models - Mobility on demand - Pay per minute - Diverse shared fleets - Multiple vehicle journeys (Source: Daimler)
- 53. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7 INCREMENTAL STEPS TO ELECTRIFICATION • By 2020, more than 50% of LDVs sold will have some electrification; by 2035, this will reach 80% • Almost 9 million will be 48V systems in 2025, 4.5 million BEVs • At least 48V will be needed to support higher level automation LDV Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035 (Source: Navigant Research)
- 54. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED8 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED8 VEHICLE CONNECTIVITY IS A KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGY • Connected vehicles use cost-effective enabling technology with the potential to reduce social, environmental, and economic costs of transportation (Source: Navigant Research) Annual OEM LDVs with V2X Technology by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025
- 55. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED9 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED9 CONNECTIVITY WILL BECOME NEARLY UBIQUITOUS • In developed markets nearly every vehicle will be connected by the mid-2020s • V2X communications and faster wireless broadband will provide both real-time and rich data capabilities Annual and Cumulative Light Duty Vehicles with Telematics: 2016-2025 (Source: Navigant Research) (Source: Navigant Research)
- 56. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED10 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED10 MOBILITY WILL DEPEND MORE ON THE CLOUD • Monitor the battery • Find charging stations • Have the car prepare itself for a trip (Source: Ford)
- 57. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED11 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED11 THE BOTS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE • Autonomous software bots will eliminate much of the interface • Bots can read your calender, see your location, access the services you subscribe to • Automated cars will “magically” appear when and where you need them (Source: Delphi)
- 58. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED12 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED12 SAE AUTOMATED DRIVING LEVELS (Source: Navigant Research)
- 59. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED13 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED13 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE SALES FORECAST Automated Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035 (Source: Navigant Research) • The more than 70 million level 2-4 automated vehicle sales in 2025 will help drive demand for 48V and HV systems that need more than 3 kW of electrical power
- 60. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED14 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED14 LIMITED ADOPTION OF MOBILITY SERVICES • By 2025 less than 1% of travelers will be using autonomous mobility services • Strongest adoption in Europe and Asia AMS Penetration by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2025 (Source: Navigant Research) 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa (%ofVehiclesinUse) Low Mid High
- 61. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED15 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED15 SECURITY ISSUES ARE ALREADY BEING DEMONSTRATED • Wherever there is an externally visible surface, it has the potential to be attacked • Tire pressure monitors, OBD-II, telematics, V2X—all are potentially vulnerable • The good news is that it is not easy Telematics and By-Wire Can Be Compromised (Source: CBS News) (Source: Wired.com)
- 62. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED16 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED16 EVERYONE NEEDS TO BE PREPARED TO RESPOND • Exploits will happen • The Automotive Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC) is an important step • Automakers and suppliers need to be prepared to fix bugs and deploy updates • Over-the-air updates must go hand- in-hand with connectivity/automation (Source: Tesla Motors Club)
- 63. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED17 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED17 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE PILOT PROGRAMS • United Kingdom: - Bristol: VENTURER Consortium - Greenwich: GATEway Project - Milton Keynes: UK Autodrive Consortium - Autonomous driving in Queen’s speech • Rest of Europe: - Netherlands: Dutch Automated Vehicle Initiative - Sweden: Drive Me (Volvo) • United States: - Mobility Transformation Center in Michigan - Waymo has changed from original focus on highway driving to lower-speed urban driving - Uber in Pittsburgh/San Francisco/Phoenix • China: GM and Shanghai Jiao Tong University • Singapore: Delphi and Nutonomy leading autonomous mobility on-demand pilot in 2017 (Source: Arup)
- 64. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED18 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED18 RETHINKING THE ROLE OF THE CAR IN THE CITY • Cars for cities, not cities for cars - Thinking beyond electric drive as a replacement for the internal combustion engine (ICE) - Eliminate the need to own a car with shared mobility - Vehicle autonomy and connectivity: Enabling technology for new business models • Shift in focus from individual car ownership and driving to mobility as a service are expected to impact new vehicle sales particularly in cities (Source: Navigant Research)
- 65. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED19 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED19 REMAKING THE AUTOMAKER (Source: Ford) • Automakers look to diversify revenue with new services: - Carsharing services - Ride-hailing programs - Fleet management - EVs integrated with home energy management and solar power - Utility services - Telematics supporting mobility - Data services - Revenue-sharing with partners such as parking providers, service outlets
- 66. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED20 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED20 2015 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES OEM LEADERBOARD (Source: Navigant Research) • In 2015, we ranked only the OEMs • A tight cluster of Audi, Daimler, BMW and General Motors led the group • The focus then was more on technology development
- 67. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED21 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED21 2017 NAVIGANT AUTOMATED DRIVING LEADERBOARD
- 68. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED22 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED22 2017 NAVIGANT AUTOMATED DRIVING LEADERBOARD • Companies received scores in 10 different criteria with scores being relative rather than absolute: - Strategy Vision Go-to-market strategy Partners Production strategy Technology - Execution Sales, marketing and distribution Product capability Product quality and reliability Product portfolio Staying power
- 69. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED23 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED23 2017 NAVIGANT AUTOMATED DRIVING LEADERBOARD (Source: Navigant Research) • The front of the pack has shuffled since 2015 with several companies moving up • As the technology matures, the supporting services strategy is becoming more important • Vertical integration is likely to play a key role
- 70. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED24 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED24 DRIVERS FOR SUCCESS – CORE TECHNOLOGY (Source: Navigant Research) • Investments in core hardware and software technologies for automation are likely to provide a competitive advantage • It may also support validation and provide liability protection
- 71. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED25 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED25 DRIVERS FOR SUCCESS – SERVICES DEVELOPMENT (Source: Navigant Research) • Providing mobility services is likely to be key to affordable deployment of automation • Vertically integrated services can provide new revenue streams • Retaining ownership can help ensure proper maintenance
- 72. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED26 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED26 NISSAN • Nissan has made the strongest commitment to mainstream electrification over the past decade • CEO Carlos Ghosn is equally bullish on the prospects for automated driving
- 73. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED27 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED27 DAIMLER • The roots of autonomous technology lie in the first electronic control systems of the 1970s like ABS Mercedes-Benz is automating cars And Trucks
- 74. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED28 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED28 GENERAL MOTORS • GM has been dreaming of autonomy since the 1950s
- 75. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED29 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED29 FORD • Ford has surged to the front in the last several years with a focus on Smart Mobility
- 76. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED30 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED30 DRIVERS FOR SUCCESS – OEMS STILL HAVE ADVANTAGE • Experience with manufacturing, integration and validation in real world environments • Traditional products and revenues will provide support during the transition • New players have a lot to offer and partnerships with OEMs will pave the way to production • Automated vehicles have to reliably deal with bad weather and poor infrastructure • User experience is still evolving, There Is Still A Lot Of Work To Do!
- 77. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED31 Q&A
- 78. / ©2016 NAVIGANTCONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED32 SAM ABUELSAMID Senior Analyst +1.734.649.1001 Sam.abuelsamid@navigant.com CONTACTS