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Roadmap to Future Roads
- 1. 1© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain © Ricardo Inc. 2015 Roadmap to autonomous driving AV Levels and Their Impact on Powertrains of the Future Ali Maleki VicePresident, BusinessDevelopment ConnectedandAutonomous Vehicles May 21,2015
- 2. 2© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Agenda • Integration into more powerful controllers • New software-based model • Today’s Levels of Automation • SAE / NHTSA Levels Definitions • Drive Cycle Complexity • Requisite Technologies • Roadmap Timeline Models • Conventional Vehicles Timeline • Shared Mobility, (Personal-Public Transportation) Timeline • Combined effects Autonomous Driving Overview Autonomous Driving Roadmaps Powertrain Controls and Electronics for Autonomous Vehicle Roadmaps
- 3. 3© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain 100 YEARS OF INNOVATION Ricardo is a global leader in consulting, design and engineering for a broad range of products in multiple industries. Ricardo is one of the world's most highly respected and experienced engine, transmission, driveline, hybrid-electric, connected and autonomous systems engineering teams.
- 4. 4© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Background Terminology* • Dynamic driving task: – Operational: Steering, braking, accelerating, monitoring the vehicle and roadway – Tactical: Responding to events, determining when to change lanes, turn, use signals, etc. • Driving mode: driving scenario characterizing the dynamic driving task requirements; e.g., expressway merging, high speed cruising, low speed traffic jam, closed-campus operations, etc. • Request to intervene: notification by the automated driving system to a human driver that s/he should promptly begin or resume performance of the dynamic driving task * SAE J3016
- 5. 5© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain • Adaptive Cruise Control • Collision Warning System • Lane Departure Warning • Lane Keeping Assist • Blind Spot Monitor • Park Assist • Navigation Systems • Traffic Sign Recognition • Adaptive High Beams • Hill climb assist Current Vehicle ‘Smart’ Systems Today’s levels of Automation • Automatic Transmission • Cruise Control • Passive Safety Systems • ABS + Stability Systems • Electric Power Steering • Electronic Throttle Control • Electronic Engine Controls Manual Driving Assisted
- 6. 6© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain NHSTA Driving Automation Definitions • The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls – brake, steering, throttle, and motive power – at all times • One or more specific control functions; e.g. electronic stability control or pre- charged brakes • Two or more functions designed to work in unison; e.g. Adaptive Cruise Control in combination with Lane Centering • Driver able to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, where changes in those conditions require transition back to driver control No-Automation (Level 0) Function- specific Automation (Level 1) Combined Function Automation (Level 2): • All driving functions performed by system. The driver only provides destination or navigation input Limited Self-Driving Automation (Level 3) Full Self-Driving Automation (Level 4)
- 7. 7© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain SAE J3016 (Jan 2014) Driving Automation Definitions Human driver monitors the driving environment Automated driving system (“system”) monitors the driving environment
- 8. 8© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain NHTSA and SAE Levels of Automation SAE Level 5 Level 1 Level 3 Level 4Level 2 ACC ESC ACC LKA Self Location IMG AI DLNN V2X NHTSA Level 4 Function-specific Automation Combined Function Automation Limited Self-Driving Automation Driver Assistance Partial Automation Conditional Automation Full Self-Driving Automation Full Automation High Automation
- 9. 9© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Autonomous Driving Algorithms 95% of driving tasks may be codified w/ conventional algorithms (filter, control loops, DSP techniques) based on standard programming languages… …the 5% exceptions need heuristic algorithms
- 10. 10© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Dynamic Driving Complexity and Mode Semi-Automated Fully-AutomatedHighly Automated ACC / LKA ETC, EBS, EPS ADAS Traffic Jam Assist Lane change Backup aide Intersection Assist Pedestrian, side object Traffic sign detection V2X Highs-peed Freeway UrbanLow-speed Freeway 2010 20252015 2020 Dynamic Driving Complexity and ModeLow High L4L2 L3 Codified/Scripted Deep Learning Machines, AI
- 11. 11© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content Long Range Forward Looking Radar (LFLR) ECU LRFLR • Range: 150-250 Meters • Frequency 76-77 GHz
- 12. 12© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content Short Range Side Radar ECU SRSR SRSR • Range: 30-70 Meters • Frequency 24 GHz
- 13. 13© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content 360° Camera view GPU / ASIC RCAM LCAM FCAM BCAM
- 14. 14© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content 360° LIDAR View ECU RLIDR LLIDR FLIDR BLIDR • Range: 150-200 Meters • IR Laser (905 nm)
- 15. 15© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content Inertial Motion Unit (Rate and Acceleration Sensors) ECU IMU • Rate Sensors: Yaw, Roll, Pitch • Accelerometers: x, y, z • Interface: Analog, Digital
- 16. 16© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content Connected Car: V2V / V2I + Cloud Data Aggregation Motion Controller DSRC LTE
- 17. 17© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content Sensor Fusion GPU / DSP LRFLR CAM LIDR V2X SRSR
- 18. 18© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Content Self Localization ECU IMU Sensor Fusion GPS
- 19. 19© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Motion Control Content Motion Control: Performing Operational and Tactical Dynamic Tasks Sensor Fusion Self Localization Situational Assessment Path planning Lane change, speed, turn Perception Actuation
- 20. 20© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain t0 t2 t4t1 t3 Model to Build the Technology Rollout Roadmap Timeline Components Technology Bits Subsystem System Components Technology Bits Subsystem Components Technology Bits Components Technology Bits Subsystem System Subsystem
- 21. 21© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Level 3 Driving (Conditional-automation) Roadmap Radar, Lidar SiGe, GaAs ACC Level 2 AD Digital Camera ASIC / FPGA LDW MEMS IMU 2000 2020 20402010 GPU V2X 2030 Level 3 AD LKA EPS Hi-Res Maps ASIL C & D Controllers DSRC Hi-Res Radars/Lidars Level 4 AD 3G/4G
- 22. 22© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Conventional Automated Vehicles’ Adoption Roadmap 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 … ConventionalVehicles High-End Mid-Class Low-End L2 L2 L2 L3 L3 L3 L4 L4 L4 L2 L3 L4L1
- 23. 23© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Shared-Mobility / Public-Personal Transportation Roadmap 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 … SharedMobility Vehicles Limited Driving Modes All-Modes L4L3 L3 L4 Par kin g/C har gin g I n d u s t Ma teri als Rec ycl e Long Dista nce Trans port U r b a n H Re mo te Ch arg ing S o l a r Pl a t o o ni n g C l o u d P r o c e s Com mute r Rapi d Trans it High Speed Interci ty Transit U r b a n I n n e r C i t y B u s i n e s s I n t e r c i t y
- 24. 24© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Shared Mobility AV Disruption 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 L2 L3 L4 L4L3 Conventional Vehicles Shared Mobility Vehicles Low-End High-End 2010 2020 2030 2040 Mid-Class L1 Fewer & fewer total number of vehicles.
- 25. 25© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Performance in the Context of Fully Automated Vehicles The “Ultimate Passenger Experience” becomes the key attribute If “the Ultimate Driving Machine” is self-driven Standardization and commoditization of Powertrains’ performance such tip-in response, acceleration and ride and handling Differentiation on Fuel efficiency, reliability and functional safety, HMI, connectivity, ride and comfort, NVH, Integration with wearables Driver health monitoring, mobile office features
- 26. 26© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Library of smart sensors/actuators/local Controllers Scalable, Standardized and Modular Architectures Highly-integrated electronics Integrated PCM Integrated VCM High-speed redundant network
- 27. 27© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Today: Numerous Controllers, Grouped on Subnets Brakes Steering eMotors BMS Inverters ECM TCM HVAC ESC Adaptive Lighting Seats Mirrors Driver Controls Instruments Multimedia Telematic Navigation RESS ABS LKA ACC Park Assist LDW Emergency Braking Traffic Jam Assist Highway Autopilot Blindspot Rear Camera Radars Lidars Front Camera Side Cameras DSRC IMU ADAS Sensors Airbags Impact Sensors Occupant Classification Seat Belts Passive Safety Systems
- 28. 28© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Body Infotainment ControllerIntegrated Vehicle Control Module (iVCU) Integrated Powertrian Control Module (iPCM) Today: Numerous Controllers, Grouped on Subnets Brakes Steering eMotors BMS Inverters ECM TCM HVAC ESC Adaptive Lighting Seats Mirrors Driver Controls Instruments Multimedia Telematic Navigation RESS ABS LKA ACC Park Assist LDW Emergency Braking Traffic Jam Assist Highway Autopilot Blindspot Rear Camera Radars Lidars Front Camera Side Cameras DSRC IMU ADAS Sensors Airbags Impact Sensors Occupant Classification Seat Belts Passive Safety Systems
- 29. 29© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Application Framework iVCU BOM Software Plug-in Environment HVAC Controls Transmission Control Starter/ Alternator Control Unit Electronic Throttle Control Energy Storage Management Electric Power Steering ABS / Stability Control Body Controls Package Config OTA Mgmt Parameter Mgmt Safety & Security Mgmt Logging, Diagnostics, Prognostics OS, BSP, Drivers ASIL D Hardware • Provide environment to drop in ‘apps’ for various vehicle functions • Isolate the overall package management functional safety from individual apps
- 30. 30© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Other Hot Topics The Locomotive Act of 1865 (Red Flag Act) Self-propelled vehicles shall be accompanied by a crew of three; and if the vehicle is attached to two or more vehicles an additional person is to accompany the vehicles, and a man with a red flag walking at least 60 yards ahead of each vehicle, who is also required assist with the passage of horses and carriages. The vehicle is required to stop at the signal of the flagbearer Speed limit shall be 4 mph (2 mph in towns) We have been there before and we will resolve this • Legal, warranty and insurance • Roadway infrastructure needs
- 31. 31© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Other Hot Topics We have managed safety and security critical systems to a high degree of success • Legal, warranty and insurance • Roadway infrastructure needs • Safety and security
- 32. 32© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain • Legal, warranty and insurance • Roadway infrastructure needs • Safety and security • Transition from manual to autonomous vehicles Other Hot Topics We have done this before too.
- 33. 33© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain • Legal, warranty and insurance • Roadway infrastructure needs • Safety and security • Transitionary period from manual to autonomous vehicles • Energy storage and refueling / recharging Other Hot Topics Opportunities to develop infrastructure to provide robotic refueling / plugging or inductive charging
- 34. 34© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain • Legal, warranty and insurance • Roadway infrastructure needs • Safety and security • Transitionary period from manual to autonomous vehicles • Energy storage and refueling / recharging • Robot takeover Other Hot Topics “I don't think we have to worry about autonomous cars, because that's sort of a narrow form of AI, and not something I think is very difficult to do actually—to do autonomous driving to the degree that's much safer than a person is much easier than people think.” Elon Musk at the GTC March 2015
- 35. 35© Ricardo Inc.2015May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain Conclusion • Mega-cities population growth • Increased need for on-demand mobility • Millennials and post-millennials are not that into cars lol yolo • Increased demand for safety and energy efficiency • AV will have a significant positive impact on the lives of the elderly and disabled • Gain in individual productivity while not driving • Technology readiness • U.S. auto sales may drop about 40 percent in the next 25 years • The low and mid range conventional vehicles may disappear • The largest contribution to the value chain will come from advanced electronics and algorithms Why AVs are coming Sea change in our industry
Editor's Notes
- #2 Ricardo is a global engineering, environmental and strategic consultancy with turnover in FY12/13 of £230million (US$352million with Jul-2013 exchange rates). Our mission is “Delivering excellence through innovation and technology” and this defines everything that we do.
- #4 Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen It is an honour to speak to you today as we celebrate the centenary of two important organisations – the British Chamber of Commerce and Ricardo. Since my recent appointment as chairman of Ricardo, I have been excited to see the strength and depth of engineering and technology that sits behind this globally recognised organisation. It is the commitment to solving our clients’ and industries’ enduring challenges that has sustained Ricardo through 100 years of successful operation to become a “go to” company for most of the worlds blue chip engineering companies We felt it was therefore fitting to spend a few minutes to share something of the Ricardo story. It is a privilege to be part of an organisation that can celebrate its 100 year anniversary. In today’s competitive environment to survive and continue to be successful based around a platform of innovation and technology is an uncommon feat. I would like to ask Mark Garrett our Chief Operating Officer, to take us through the outline for the lecture and give us a glimpse of what the world may be like 100 years from now.