Understanding different impacts of each automated mobility solution on metropolitan (urban and suburban) spatial structures.

1. CIVITAS FORUM 2016
Sep 28th 2016
Gdynia, Poland
Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI – Gdansk University of Technology

2. 2
Autonomous/Automated Automobiles
vs.
Self-driving Cars/Vehicles
vs.
Driverless Shuttles/Podcars
Understanding different impacts of each
automated mobility solution on metropolitan
(urban and suburban) spatial structures
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

3. 3
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Gdynia now
photo: Author 2014

4. 4
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Personal Rapid Transit in Gdynia?
artist vision: Author 2014

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
But does Gdynia need PRT?
Do other cities need it?
It depends:
• NO – if we consider new expensive infrastructure
• YES – if we consider use of existing infrastructure
• but transport automation brings new opportunities
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
What are the conditions right now?
Car-centric development:
• which is justified by promising improvement of personal transport conditions
• but in reality the conditions are getting worse since the car invention
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
What paradoxes & non-intuitive laws are related to this problem? Examples:
1. Jevons’ Efficiency Paradox— in relation to transport is e.g.: electric vehicles
users drive more, thus create bigger environmental impacts (Jevons WS
1866)
2. Braess’ Paradox— bigger or smaller congestion when, accordingly: adding
new or removing existing part of the road infrastructure (Braess D 1968)
3. Induced Traffic Demand— the more roads — the bigger traffic (Leeming JJ
1969)
4. Risk Compensation/Peltzman’s Effect— the more safe you feel — the
bigger risk emerge (Leeming JJ 1969; Peltzman S 1975)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
5. Downs-Thomson Paradox— investing in individual transport creates
additional traffic by reducing mass transit use (Thomson JM 1972; Downs A
1992)
6. Narrow lane safety— the narrower lane — the safer road, even without
reducing the capacity (Schwartz S 1988)
7. Lewis-Mogridge Position— traffic is growing to fulfil road capacity (Lewis D;
Mogridge MJH 1990)
8. Marchetti’s Constant— the average time travelled is constant for any mode
of transport, due to the different distances passed and scopes operated
(Marchetti C 1994)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples of “traditional” car-centric viewpoints on automation:
• pushing for the creation of dedicated traffic lanes for autonomous
automobiles throughout the 225 km stretch of highway between Seattle and
Vancouver
• ideas of ultra-efficient (scary) automated V2V (vehicle to vehicle) & V2X
(vehicles to infrastructure) crossroads – green light for everybody at once
• free autonomous D2D rides (door to door) to shopping malls outside of the
city centre
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

10. 10
AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
This is why we should distinguish technical & organizational solutions
of automated mobility such as AA-s, SV-s & DS-s
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
I. What I understand by Autonomous/Automated Automobiles?
1. It is just an evolution of traditional 1,5 century old model of automobile
2. It still needs the driver (in the meaning of the owner) and steering wheel
3. It does not make any difference between other cars since newer cars have
already safety- and other kind of automation
4. Thus it is just marketing
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples for autonomous/automated automobiles:
• Tesla Model S (autopilot software update of an electric but traditional car)
• Mercedes F 015 (AA concept that is still focused on self-ownership or long-
term rent)
• Yanfeng AA (premiere 2017 – user interface presented 2016 in Frankfurt)
• Volvo, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan etc. are preparing their own AAs for the next
2-5 years (all major automotive producers will present AA until around 2020)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
II. What I understand by Self-driving Vehicles/Cars?
1. It is a revolution after 100 years of the same car model
2. It does not need the driver (no driving license needed) nor steering wheel
3. Thus the owner does not need to keep its belonging car with him/her
4. Actually the traveler does not need to own the car – he/she can use it as
todays taxi, ridesharing or car sharing services
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples for self-driving vehicles/cars:
• Google has been testing its self-driving car for example in Kirkland,
Washington
• Uber opened the first self-driving fleet in Pittsburgh, USA
• nuTonomy announced a partnership with South East Asia's largest ride-
hailing service, Grab, in order to further expand the reach of fleet of self-
driving vehicles
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
III. What I understand by Driverless Shuttles/Pods/Podcars?
1. It fills the on-demand (OD) gap between taxi service and public transit
2. It allows to cover the first/last mile problem
3. It competes with walking and biking
4. But it complement public transit making it cheaper to maintain (no drivers)
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Examples for driverless shuttles/podcars:
• BestMile signs its first commercial project with CarPostal, the company
leading the sector of public transportation in Switzerland. This collaboration
between the EPFL spin-off and the subsidiary of the Swiss Post will allow to
operate driverless shuttles in urban areas
• Livermore Amador Valley Transit Authority (LAVTA) introduced two
innovations: partnering with transportation network companies (TNCs),
such as Uber and Lyft, to reach commuters in neighbourhoods big buses
cannot serve, and exploring driverless shuttles to solve first and last mile
issues to connect people to stations
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
What future transportation problems do cities have to solve?
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
We have stakeholders:
• Chaotic
• Monopolizing
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
We need stakeholders:
• Cooperating
• Complementing
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
How to solve the problem?
We need to implement Mobility as a Service (MaaS) paradigm
Why?
Because automation is a disruptive innovation that may have significant
negative side effects on functional, physical & socio-economic spatial structures,
as much as on transportation, including personal, group and mass public transit.
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
What ways do cities can follow? – example of (automated) car-sharing
Source: Author 2016. Car-sharing: The Impact on Metropolitan Spatial Structures

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI
Examples of shared on-
demand rides on the city
theoretical model:
• Rideshare picks-up 2 or
more passengers on way
• Rideshare prolong it’s
route if its <1,4 length
• Rideshare is
complementing public
transit
Source: Author 2016

23. Thank you!
Piotr Marek Smolnicki
Contact Details
Gdansk University of Technology
Narutowicza 11/12 Street
80-233 Gdańsk, Poland
piotr.smolnicki@pg.gda.pl
http://www.civitas.eu

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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
Author’s chosen references
• Smolnicki PM 2016 “Mobility Oriented Development (MOD): Public-Private
Partnership in Urban Parking & Traffic Management with the Use of
Autonomous Automobiles, Car-sharing, Ridesharing Modes of Transport &
Mobility as a Service (MaaS)”. Springer: Happy City: eds Brdulak H, Brdulak A
• Smolnicki PM, Sołtys J 2016 “Car-sharing: The impact on metropolitan spatial
structures”
• Smolnicki PM, Sołtys J 2016 “Driverless Mobility: The Impact on Metropolitan
Spatial Structures”. Elsevier
• Netsch S, Junussova M, Kamrowska-Załuska D, Kiełbińska K, Roszkowska K,
Smolnicki PM 2014 “Rethinking the Water-City Interface: Gdynia and
Waterfront”
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AA vs. SV/SC vs. DS/DP – different impacts
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theory/wp/2016/03/02/buses-and-trains-thats-what-will-solve-
congestion/
CIVITAS Forum 2016 • Sep 28th 2016 • Gdynia • Piotr Marek SMOLNICKI