This presentation goes along with the paper (also uploaded here) A Real Time Online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis Management Support during Extreme Events. This is a free and open source system that is available with the Sahana Disaster Mgmt System - python version http://delphi.sahanafoundation.org/ enjoy! Dr. Connie White

1. A Real Time Online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis Management Support during Extreme EventsA module contribution to 1 Connie White Murray Turoff Roxanne Hiltz Jacksonville State University New Jersey Institute of Technology Jacksonville, Alabama, USA Newark, New jersey, USA

2. http://demo.sahanapy.org 2 How to make better decisions managing disasters

3. Lithia Springs, Georgia, 2009WICKED PROBLEMS Chaos Time Critical High Stress Information Overload Lack of Resources Lack of Information Situational Assessment Uncertainty Need Feedback Congested Quarters Disorganization Who’s In Charge? 3

4. How to organize, manage and prioritize all risk? 4

5. Present Working Environment Internet Access Browser – pc or smart phone Collaboration Collective Intelligence 5

6. Dynamics of Group Membership Not all members have to participate in order for results to be ongoing, real time and reflected. System can be used by members anytime System can be used from anywhere there is the Internet and a browser- Android phone Moderator can change who is in the group and modify the individual’s privileges. 6

7. Delphi Technique Characteristicsanonymity feedback single group calculation 7

8. Designed System based on Delphi Technique Anonymity Voting is anonymous Item creation is anonymous Individual input results in a single group opinion Users enter opinions as independent ranked list Sub-item selection, muddling through Feedback Scale of results Visual Interpretation of the data – Comparative Judgment yields more precise representation of expert’s opinion and group’s opinion Forum Discussion Interaction between crisis managers Provides more information Exposes and resolves ambiguities Exposes and focuses on true uncertainties for input Reduces information overload 8

9. Constructs 9

10. Design Science Research1st Iteration: Campus Threat Assessment Agreement 10

11. Severe Weather Top Threat Central Alabama 11

12. Agreement and Disagreement 12

13. 13 Design Science Research2ndIteration: Top Excuses Why Students Miss Midterms

14. Version 2.0: Five Tools Provided Problem Management Add New View Existing Add members Solution List Generation Select subgroup of items for consideration Voting Input expert opinion through paired comparison Visual Scale quick interpretation of data providing more information due to distance between alternatives Unique Group Creation 4 Roles Supported: moderator, contributor, guest, participant 14

15. Problem Management Tool 15

16. Solution List Generation Tool 16

17. Item Selection: Muddling Through 17

18. Voting Tool: paired comparisons 18

19. Reasons behind usingPaired Comparisons for Voting High stress Information overload Memory capacity Sleep deprivation Paired Comparisons provide a more accurate reflection of the expert’s opinion with > 7 items in current memory. 19

20. Scale of ResultsThurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment 20

21. Thurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment Visual interpretation of information reduces information overload, quicker to interpret Better than a priority ranked list of equal intervals in that each solution is in proximity to the other solutions indicating ‘how much more’ one solution is preferred to another by the group. 21

22. Groups and MembershipRoles 22

23. Using Experts Decreases Uncertainty 23

24. Need Practitioner’s Input Need Large Groups of Experts to Test System Can this be used during any phase of EM? Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery What exercises/problem types should be used to test the system? 24

26. Reduce total number of paired comparisons

27. Transitivity

28. What changes need to be made so that this will work in the real world?