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Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates
The document discusses recent enrollment trends in Massachusetts public higher education, noting that total undergraduate enrollment has declined for the third consecutive year after peaking in 2013, with community colleges seeing the largest decreases. Enrollment varies between segments, with the University of Massachusetts seeing growth from international students. The profile of new undergraduate students in 2015 is also presented, showing over half enrolled at community colleges and most were in-state, white, and female.
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Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates
- 1. Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates Boardof Higher Education Meeting | October 11, 2016
- 2. 2 163,993 196,847 186,103 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 Fall- 2006 Fall- 2007 Fall- 2008 Fall- 2009 Fall- 2010 Fall- 2011 Fall- 2012 Fall- 2013 Fall- 2014 Fall- 2015 Fall Undergraduate Enrollment:SystemTotal Fall- 2016 Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates ThirdYear of Decline in Last 10Years PeakYear -10,744 (-5.5%) Decline from Peak
- 3. 3 Highlights: 2016 EnrollmentEstimates Consensus Among Multiple Projections 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 NumberHighSchoolGraduates 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FallHeadcount Donahue: Public Higher Ed EnrollmentsWICHE: High School Graduates NCES: 2010-2023 Change in Public High School Graduates Decline 5% or more Decline up to 5% Grow up to 5% Grow 5% or more
- 4. 4 Highlights: 2016 EnrollmentEstimates Enrollment Booms and Busts are Normal Source: MA DHE, USDOE 166,674 148,538 196,540 186,103 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Fall Undergraduate Enrollment 1988 - 2016
- 5. 5 42,390 41,461 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 State Universities 100,798 87,711 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 CommunityColleges Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates Recent Enrollment ChangeVaries by Segment PeakYear 52,986 56,931 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 University of Massachusetts PeakYear
- 6. 6 Highlights: 2016 EnrollmentEstimates University of Massachusetts Recent increases in undergraduate enrollment associated with notable increase in international student enrollment. University of Massachusetts Undergraduate Enrollment Fall-2013 Fall-2014 Fall-2015 Fall-2016 2015-2016 Change In-State 45,668 45,924 46,418 46,614 0.7% Out-of-State 6,806 6,823 6,731 6,621 -0.7% International 2,162 2,630 3,150 3,680 12.4%
- 7. 7 Highlights: 2016 EnrollmentEstimates State Universities Growth in state university undergraduate enrollment has slowed in recent years with slight enrollment declines the last three falls. 1.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.8% 0.5% 1.3% -0.6% -0.6% -1.0%-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 06–07 07–08 08–09 09–10 10–11 11–12 12–13 13–14 14–15 15–16 State UniversityYear-to-Year Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change
- 8. 8 3.6% 5.0% 10.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.4% -1.0% -2.9% -4.4% -5.4% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 06–07 07–08 08–0909–10 10–11 11–12 12–13 13–14 14–15 15–16 Community CollegeYear toYear Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates Community Colleges Accelerated enrollment declines in recent years follow years of unprecedented enrollment growth. Rapid growth from ‘06 to ‘10 coincided with both a boom in high school graduates and the onslaught of the great recession.
- 9. 9 Highlights: 2016 EnrollmentEstimates Community Colleges Historically, community college enrollment has been more volatile than enrollment at the four-year institutions. Source: MA DHE, USDOE 72,774 66,779 100,798 87,711 42,280 33,922 41,461 51,620 43,750 56,931 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Fall Undergraduate Enrollment 1988 - 2016 Community Colleges State Universities UMass
- 10. 10 Highlights: 2016 EnrollmentEstimates Community Colleges Community College fall enrollment is correlated with annual enrollment. Source: MA DHE, USDOE 50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 130,000 150,000 Fall 06/FY07 Fall 07/FY08 Fall 08/FY09 Fall 09/FY10 Fall 10/FY11 Fall 11/FY12 Fall 12/FY13 Fall 13/FY14 Fall 14/FY15 Community College Headcount Fall Headcount Annual Headcount
- 11.
- 12. 12 33,907Total 2015New Students Enrolled in Massachusetts Public Higher Education Profile: New Undergraduate Students 2015 New Students State Universities 22% UMass 28% Community Colleges 50% By Segment African Americ an 12% Latino/a 19% White 69% By Race/Ethnicity
- 13. 13 Nearly 52%were female Average age was 19.9 years 24.8 years for part-time students More than 20% were part-time students Approximately 43% of those enrolling full-time received Pell Grants Profile: New Undergraduate Students 2015 New Students (cont’d)
- 14. 14 More thanhalf of first-time students enroll in Community Colleges, but the share was higher during the recession and enrollment boom. Profile: New Undergraduate Students Enrollment by Segment 59% 56% 51% 18% 19% 22% 23% 25% 28% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fall-2009 Fall-2012 Fall-2015 Community Colleges State Universities University of Massachusetts
- 15. 15 Profile: New UndergraduateStudents % Part-Time Student by Segment 1% 1% 33% 20% 2% 1% 38% 22% 2% 1% 39% 21% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% University of Massachusetts State University Community College All Institutions Percent of First-Time Undergraduates Enrolled Part-Time Fall-2009 Fall-2012 Fall-2015
- 16. 16 Profile: New UndergraduateStudents Average Age by Enrollment Status & Segment 18.6 18.6 20.3 19.3 20.3 21.8 23.7 23.6 18.6 18.6 21.7 20.2 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 University of Massachusetts State Universities Community College All Institutions Average Age of First-Time Students, Fall 2015 Full Time Part Time Total
- 17. 17 Profile: New UndergraduateStudents % Female By Segment 48% 58% 52% 52% 47% 58% 52% 52% 46% 57% 52% 51% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% University of Massachusetts State Universities Community College All Institutions Percent of First-Time Undergraduates Who Were Women Fall 2009 Fall 2012 Fall 2015
- 18. 18 Profile: New UndergraduateStudents % Pell Grant Recipient by Segment 27% 28% 47% 37% 31% 32% 55% 42% 30% 34% 57% 43% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% University of Massachusetts State Universities Community College All Institutions Percent of First Time, Full Time Student Receiving Pell Grants Fall 2010 Fall 2012 Fall 2014
- 19. 19 Profile: New UndergraduateStudents Race/Ethnicity by Segment 4.6% 8.5% 77.8% 7.7% UMass 6.0% 13.2 % 69.9 % 8.4% UMass 2.6% 5.1% 86.9 % 5.1% State U's 2.9% 10.6 % 75.2 % 7.3% State U's 4.0% 12.5 % 70.4 % 12.6 % Comm. Col's 4.8% 23.4 % 55.2 % 13.3 % Comm. Col's Fall 2006 Fall 2015 9.0% 5.0% 78.0 % 7.0% HS Grads 11.5 % 10.3 % 66.3 % 8.3% HS Grads African American Asian / Pacific Islander Latino/a White
- 20. 20 Latino/a studentsare less likely thanWhite students to finish high school and enter college Profile: New Undergraduate Students Latino/White Gaps in Attainment Sources: MA DESE, MA DHE, National StudentClearinghouse. 72% 53% 92% 73% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Graduating High School in Four Years Enrolling in Postsecondary Education After HS Graduation Gaps in Educational Attainment for MA Public High School Students Latino White
- 21. 21 Latino/a recentHS grads are more likely thanWhite recent HS grads to enroll in MA Public Higher Education Profile: New Undergraduate Students Latino/White College-Going Patterns Enrolling MA Public, 72% Enrolling MA Public, 45% Enrolling Other, 28% Enrolling Other, 55% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Latino White Where Recent High School Graduates Enroll
- 22.