2016 Building a Grad Nation webinar slides
•Download as PPTX, PDF•
0 likes•121 views
On May 9, Civic Enterprises and the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University, as part of the GradNation Campaign, released the 2016 Building a Grad Nation report. Released annually, the report shows detailed progress toward the GradNation goal of a national on-time graduation rate of 90 percent by 2020. That afternoon, expert speakers and co-authors of the report – John Bridgeland, CEO and president, Civic Enterprises,Jennifer DePaoli, senior education advisor, Civic Enterprises, and Robert Balfanz, director of the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University School of Education – discussed where the nation and states stand on the path to 90 percent. The webinar was moderated by Tanya Tucker, vice president of alliance engagement, America's Promise Alliance. In addition to audience questions, topics included: • Where the nation and states stand on reaching the 90 percent by 2020 goal • Threats to achieving the goal • Setting the record straight on graduation rates • Recommendations for moving forward Find the report at: www.gradnation.org/2016report
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Viewers also liked
Viewers also liked (17)
Similar to 2016 Building a Grad Nation webinar slides
Similar to 2016 Building a Grad Nation webinar slides (20)
More from America's Promise Alliance
More from America's Promise Alliance (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
2016 Building a Grad Nation webinar slides
- 1. Building a Grad Nation 2016 Annual Report www.GradNation.org/2016Report
- 2. Building a Grad Nation Webinar Speakers John Bridgeland President & CEO Civic Jennifer DePaoli Senior Education Advisor Civic Robert Balfanz Director Everyone Graduates Center Tanya Tucker Vice President America’s Promise Alliance
- 3. 3 Building a Grad Nation Annual Update 2016 Progress and Challenge in Raising High School Graduation Rates
- 9. National Equity Path to 90
- 11. Student Demographics in Large, Low-Graduation-Rate High Schools* *Enrolling 300 or more students
- 12. Low-Graduation-Rate High Schools To keep in line with ESSA, we are moving from looking solely at the large high schools (300 or more students) producing significant numbers of non-graduates to further examining the high schools enrolling 100 or more students that reported an ACGR of 67 percent or less. In this year’s report, we identify the high schools with persistently low graduation rates and follow the evidence to examine where these schools are and what types of schools fall into this category.
- 16. Low-Graduation-Rate Schools When examining low-graduation-rate high schools by type: 41 percent are regular district schools 28 percent are alternative schools 26 percent are charter schools 7 percent are virtual schools To break it down further: When removing alternative charter and alternative virtual from the alternative school category (10 and 2 percent of these schools, respectively), 23 percent of all low- graduation-rate high schools were alternative schools (district-operated). When separating brick-and-mortar charter schools from virtual charter schools, brick- and-mortar charter schools make up 22 percent of low-graduation-rate schools. This allows us to focus more intently on the schools that make up large percentages in each school type category.
- 17. School Type is taken as defined by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in their Common Core of Data (CCD) and defines four types of schools: Regular, Special Education; Vocational; and Alternative. Independently from those four school types, NCES also release two separate and independent variables that denote schools’ Charter and Virtual school status, respectively. For the table above, we have expanded the NCES/CCD Virtual school variable to include any school whose name includes the words: Cyber; Virtual; Digital; or Online/On-line). Also for the table above, any Regular/Special Education/Vocational/Alternative/Charter school that is designated as a Virtual school is counted only as a Virtual School, and similarly any Regular/Special Education/Vocational/Alternative school that is designated as a Charter school is counted only as a Charter school, so that the six categories taken together are both mutually exclusive of each other as well as jointly exhaustive. Breaking it down by School Type
- 21. Key Takeaways There is great variation across states in the number and percentage of low-graduation-rate high schools, as well as the types of schools that have low-graduation-rates and are producing significant numbers of non-graduates. Students who have fallen off track need more than quick credit recovery; they need the things that make all students successful: to be able to build positive relationships with caring adults, strong and tailored instruction opportunities to engage in learning experiences that connect school to life beyond the support and resources to help them figure out what they want to do once they have earned their diploma. These should be at the core of any “alternative” school or program if they are to meet the needs of the students they serve.
- 22. Setting the Record Straight on High School Graduation Rates • Graduation rates rose most rapidly between 2006 and 2014, when states were increasing graduation requirements. •More students than ever are taking the ACT (40% of graduates in 2005 vs 59% of graduates in 2015). • ACT scores have flat-lined in recent years, but this stagnation may be due to more students who would have previously dropped out taking the exam. • The number of students taking AP courses has risen from about 550,000 in 2004 to more than one million in 2013. The number of students passing at least one AP exam has also risen, from roughly 350,000 in 2004 to more than 600,000 in 2013.
- 23. Setting the Record Straight on High School Graduation Rates • 50 ways to leave your cohort? • To help address issues about whether the steady rise in graduation rates is real, we examined: • ACGR cohorts for the classes of 2011 and 2014 for all 50 states, as well as the size of their actual 9th grade enrollments in 2007-08 and 2010-11 – the years in which those two cohorts entered 9th grade. • This allowed us to determine if substantial numbers of students were being removed from their cohort over a four-year period. • Our analysis comparing student enrollment totals and graduating cohort counts shows that in nearly all states, state reporting of graduation rate data is aligned with enrollment data, and thus, at the state level, reported graduation gains cannot be attributed to states inappropriately removing students from their cohorts. • Further analysis needs to be done to determine if this is happening at the school- or district-level.
- 24. Extended-Year Graduation Rates Five-year graduation rates were available for 31 states, across 73 graduating cohorts over four years. On average, five-year rates led to a 3 percent increase in overall graduation rates. Six-year graduation rates were available for 23 graduating cohorts in 13 states. Six-year grad rates showed an average gain of one percent. When factoring in 5- and 6-year graduation rates, the national graduation rate would be closer to 86-87%.
- 25. Policy Recommendations • Set clear definitions and give graduation rates the weight they deserve in ESSA. •Get the cohort rate right. • Create evidence-based plans to improve low-graduation-rate high schools. •Require the reporting of extended-year graduation rates in addition to four-year graduation rates. •Ensure alternative, charter, and virtual schools are included in state accountability and improvement systems. •Provide real pathways for re-engagement.
- 26. To download the Building a Grad Nation 2016 Annual Report and find your state graduation progress report, please visit: www.GradNation.org/2016Report
Editor's Notes
- 7th annual update to the nation – all worked together to define a goal, follow evidence to meet it, and stay with it over time Thank all our partners in the Alliance and supporters – ATT and its Aspire program, Target and State Farm – stayed with this challenge over time as well. Progress possible because of students, parents, educators, leaders from every sector who are relentless about helping our young people – and challenges are still quite daunting for various student subgroups to meet America’s commitment to equal opportunity. Good news, but plenty of alarm bells this year.
- Both measures of graduation rates – AFGR and ACGR – show the same upward trend since 2002. The steady climb of high school grad rates became more accelerated in 2006, and in 2012, the nation reached an historic milestone by achieving an 80 percent high school graduation rate. This trend continued through 2014 – the fourth year of the Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate – as the national graduation rate hit yet another record of 82.3 percent, up more than 10 percentage points from the turn of the century. All this means that since 2002, 2 million more students graduated rather than dropping out with consequences to them, economy and society.
- The 2013-14 school year marks the fourth year of state graduation rate reporting in the Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate era, and the first year in which all states publicly reported rates using this common measure. Of the states reporting ACGR since 2010-11, more than 90 percent have increased the number of students graduating high school in four years. Six states increased their graduation rates by 6 or more points 19 states raised rates by 3-5.9 points 13 states saw increases of 1.5-2.9 points Seven states have seen grad rate increases of 1.4 percentage points or less since 2010-11 Three states – South Dakota, Wyoming, and Arizona – have seen their rates decline since 2010-11
- Hispanic/Latino students made gains of 5.3 percentage points and African American students increasing 5.5 percentage points since 2011. In earlier period they drove improvements in grad rates with 15 and 9 percentage point gains, respectively Both of these student subgroups exceeded the national rate of improvement (0.9 points) between 2013 and 2014, and with average yearly gains since 2011 averaging more than 1.3 percentage points.
- Do we live in two nations? 47 percent of 2014 graduating cohort = low-income Only six states - Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Texas - have low-income graduation rates above the national average of 82.3 percent, and just five additional states graduate more than 80 percent of these students. • Nearly one-third of states graduate less than 70 percent of their low-income students. • The graduation rate gap between low-income and non-low-income students ranges from a high of 25.6 percentage points in South Dakota to a low of 4.0 percentage points in Indiana. In nearly half of all states, the gap between low-income students and their more affluent peers is 15 percentage points or greater, and in 18 additional states the gap is at least 10 points. Only eight states have a low-income/non-low-income gap less than 10 percentage points.
- On-Pace/Off-Pace map Using a four-year (2011 to 2014) metric to gauge average growth, 20 states have put themselves on pace to reach 90 percent by 2020. The majority of these states started within 10 to 12 points of the goal in 2011 and steadily climbed each year. All of these states now have graduation rates greater than 83 percent and must maintain around a 1-point-per-year pace to meet the goal. Looking solely at graduation rate increases from 2013 to 2014, seven other states experienced one-year growth that exceeded the pace needed to get them to 90 percent. 21 states are off-pace. Many of these states reported rates in the 60s and 70s in 2011 and have been unable to attain a rate of growth that would put them on pace. About a quarter of the off-pace states – Hawaii, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Wyoming – started with rates in the 80s, but have not been able to make meaningful progress. This stagnation, and backsliding in some cases, shows that, for many states, having the 90 percent goal within view makes it no easier to reach.
- At the national level, raising the current graduation rate of 82.3 percent to 90 percent means graduating an additional 284,591 students. To put it another way, all of the additional students nationwide needed to graduate over the next six years to reach the goal would fit into about three Rose Bowl stadiums. But simply getting to 90 percent nationally is not enough. It is critical to advancing equal opportunity that all student subgroups, especially those who have traditionally been underserved, reach a 90 percent graduation rate. For the nation to achieve a 90 percent graduation rate among its low-income students (current ACGR of 74.6 percent), about 264,000, or roughly 93 percent, of the additional graduates will need to be from this subgroup. For students with disabilities to achieve a 90 percent rate, about 117,000, or 41 percent, of the additional graduates in the Class of 2020 will need to be special education students. Twenty-three percent, or about 65,000 additional graduates, would need to be English Language Learners. For Black students to achieve a 90 percent graduation rate by 2020, about 102,000 students, or nearly 40 percent, need to be from this subgroup, and about the same percentage will need to be Hispanic/Latino.
- Grads Needed to Get to 90 state map Within each state, the numbers tell a similar story. The number of additional graduates needed to reach 90 percent varies widely. In most places, reaching the goal means engaging a relatively small number of students and makes the path forward appear that much more attainable. The challenge most states need to contend with is ensuring not only that their overall graduation rate is raised to 90 percent, but that various student subgroups are also hitting that mark. This is especially true for students with disabilities and Black, Hispanic/Latino, and low-income students in nearly every state with significant populations of these student subgroups.
- There are now approximately 1,000 of these high schools and less than one million students attending them – a staggering reduction from the more than 2,000 schools and 2.5 million students in them in 2002. Between 2012-13 and 2013-14, high schools graduating 67 percent or less of students dropped by 225 and the number of students enrolled in them was cut by nearly 210,000. Altogether, there were at least 1.6 million fewer students attending high schools with low graduation rates in 2014 than in 2002. Unfortunately, these students are still overwhelmingly represented in these schools. Of the roughly 924,000 students in low-graduation-rate high schools, 65 percent were low-income and 63 percent African American or Hispanic/Latino.
- Of the high schools enrolling 100 or more students and graduating 67% or less of them, more than 50% were located in cities. But just a quarter of all high schools were located in urban areas.
- There are more than 11,000 (60.7 percent) high schools across the country that graduated 85 percent or more of students in 2014. This means that for every low-graduation-rate high school in the nation there are more than four high-graduation-rate high schools. Of these high-graduation-rate high schools, nearly 40 percent were small high schools in rural areas, and close to 30 percent were found in suburban areas. Just 17 percent of these high-performing high schools were located in cities.
- Percentage of High Schools 67% or Below, by State map The number of high schools enrolling 100 students or more and graduating 67 percent or less of students in each state varies greatly, from one each in Maine and West Virginia to 203 in Florida and 276 in New York. The percentages of these schools varies greatly as well. In two states – Alaska and New Mexico – low-grad-rate high schools are 40% or more of all high schools. 30% of high schools are low-grad-rate schools in Florida. More than a quarter of high schools were low-grad-rate schools in Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. With the exception of Delaware, all of the states in which low-grad-rate high schools make up 20% or more of all high schools have overall grad rates in the 60s and 70s.
- In terms of non-graduates, Alaska, Colorado, and Idaho had 30% or more of non-grads coming from alternative schools. Florida, Michigan, Washington, Utah, and Texas had 20% or more of non-grads coming from alternative schools.
- In terms of non-grads, 43% of non-grads in Ohio came from charter schools, 37% of non-grads in Arizona came from charter schools. Between 20 and 25% of non-grads came from charter schools in Florida, Pennsylvania, Idaho, and California.
- In terms of non-grads, Ohio and Idaho, had 26 and 25 percent of non-grads, respectively, coming from virtual schools. South Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota, Kansas, Colorado, and Pennsylvania each had between 10 and 14 percent of non-grads coming from virtual schools.
- Questions have been raised in recent years about whether schools have lowered standards to graduate more students on time. Some have also raised concerns over the reporting of graduation rates by states, and whether these numbers are being inflated. We looked at some measures of rigor, as well as enrollment and cohort data to see if states may be playing with their graduation rate numbers.