Highlights: 2015 Fall Enrollment Estimates
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Analysis of estimated undergraduate enrollment in Massachusetts public colleges and universities, comparing the early estimates of fall 2015 enrollment with historic data. Presented to the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education on October 27, 2015.
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Highlights: 2015 Fall Enrollment Estimates
- 1. Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 27, 2015
- 2. 2 160,928 188,120 196,847 194,371 190,822 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 Fall Undergraduate Enrollment: SystemTotal Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates SecondYear of Decline in Last 10Years PeakYear -6,205 Decline from Peak
- 3. 3 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Consensus Among Multiple Projections 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 NumberHighSchoolGraduates 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FallHeadcount Donahue: Public Higher Ed EnrollmentsWICHE: High School Graduates NCES: 2010-2023 Change in Public High School Graduates Decline 5% or more Decline up to 5% Grow up to 5% Grow 5% or more
- 4. 4 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Enrollment Booms and Busts are Normal 166,674 148,538 196,540 190,822 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2015 Fall Undergraduate Enrollment: 1988–2015 Source: MA DHE, USDOE
- 5. 5 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Recent Enrollment ChangeVaries by Segment 51,966 56,303 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 University of Massachusetts 40,512 42,390 41,812 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 State Universities PeakYear 100,480 100,798 92,707 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 Community Colleges PeakYear
- 6. 6 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates University of Massachusetts Recent increases in undergraduate enrollment associated with notable increase in international student enrollment. Fall-2012 Fall-2013 Fall-2014 Fall-2015 2012-2015 Change In-State 45,508 45,668 45,924 46,418 +2% Out-of-State 6,710 6,806 6,823 6,731 0% International 1,646 2,162 2,630 3,150 +91% University of Massachusetts Undergraduate Enrollment
- 7. 7 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates State Universities Growth in state university undergraduate enrollment has slowed in recent years. Past year showed no growth at the segment level. 1.9% 1.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.8% 0.5% 1.3% -0.6%-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 06 to 07 07 to 08 08 to 09 09 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15 State UniversityYear-to-Year Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change
- 8. 8 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Community Colleges Accelerated enrollment declines in recent years follow years of unprecedented enrollment growth. Note that rapid growth from ‘06 to ‘10 coincided with both a boom in high school graduates and the onslaught of the great recession. 1.5% 3.6% 5.0% 10.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.4% -1.0% -4.3%-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 06 to 07 07 to 08 08 to 09 09 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15 Community CollegeYear-to-Year Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change
- 9. 9 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Community Colleges Historically, Community College Enrollment is more volatile than enrollment at the four-year institutions. 72,774 66,779 88,936 100,798 92,707 42,280 33,922 41,841 41,812 51,620 43,750 56,303 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2015 Fall Undergraduate Enrollment 1988–2015 Community Colleges State Universities UMass Source: MA DHE, USDOE
- 10. 10 What factors necessitate the need for increased enrollment? “The Perfect Storm” Growth in jobs that require a college-educated workforce Declines in college-age population Persistent low college completion rates Persistent gaps in college enrollment and completion among growing underserved populations. Public Higher Education in Massachusetts has been grappling with relatively flat student outcomes at a time in which the demand for college degrees is perpetually increasing. Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Enrollment Influences and Strategies
- 11. 11 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Enrollment Influences and Strategies 72% of jobs will require postsecondary education Growth in Jobs that Require a College-EducatedWorkforce: 2010–2020 Source: “Job Growth and Education RequirementsThrough 2020”, GeorgetownCenter on Education and theWorkforce 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 Estimated Jobs by Education Level 2010–2020 Less than High School High School Diploma Some College Associates Degree Bachelors Masters Or Higher
- 12. 12 Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Enrollment Influences and Strategies - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bachelors Associates Estimated Shortfall in Public Higher Education Degreed Workers Compared with Estimated Need: 2015–2020 Source: “Job Growth and Education RequirementsThrough 2020”, GeorgetownCenter on Education and theWorkforce
- 13. 13 Implementation of new system-wide policies and practices can change the trajectory. However, there needs to be a continuous PK–16 effort to advance educational attainment if we are to adequately meet the requirements of the Commonwealth’s economy. Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates Strategies to Address Declines “The BigThree”
- 14. Discussion