SlideShare a Scribd company logo
High-Tax State Exodus
13 Dec 2017
War Room
War Room
Idea Generation
Contextual Training
Scenario Updates
HiddenLevers runs on SCENARIOS like Facebook runs on PHOTOS
The Skinny
US Housing Market Today
Potential Housing Stumbles
Scenario: US Coastal Exodus
High-Tax State Exodus
NEW
HiddenLevers
THE SKINNY
Extreme Weather
Epic Rebound
High-Tax State Exodus - Why Ripe?
sources: HiddenLevers, CNBC,
Tax Changes
High-Tax State Exodus – Let’s take a Look
See it on HiddenLevers
High-income coastal homeowners:
5 FIGURE TAX HIKE COMING
Finance sector inseparable from
real estate, will suffer if it does
Home prices
protected by slow
home construction
High-Tax State Exodus – Take-aways
Push factors bigger than taxes
creating Coastal Exodus
HiddenLevers
US HOUSING MARKET TODAY
TODAY: US Housing Pulse Check
Avg
1.46M
peak
2M
Housing
Starts
Now: 1.29M
12% below
50y average
Low
870k
US home prices are 6% above 2006 peak – but housing starts
are still 12% below the long-term average, underpinning prices.
sources: HiddenLevers, WSJ, Reuters, St. Louis FRED
US Home Prices
Case-Shiller
Index
Now: 195.5
2006: 184.6
TODAY: Real Estate in Equity Markets
sources: HiddenLevers
Finance Sector (VFH)
benefited as much from home
price rise as real estate sector
+50%
+138%
+214%
+101%
+217%
March 2012 – US Home
Prices reach lowest point
since 2004
Since
03/2012
TODAY: Sources of US Housing Demand
sources: HiddenLevers, WSJ, LA Times, NY Times, Builder Online, SJ Mercury News, The Mortgage
FOREIGN
BUYERS
2017 $31.7B
2016 $27.3B
2017 $19B
2016 $8.9B
RISING
INCOMES
First time
home buying
highest since
2000
Rising income
means rising
family
formation
MILLENIALS
Paying
premiums for
proximity to
business
districts
Less interested
in commuting
Single women
buy more than
single men
RETIREES
Not really
downsizing
Not letting
single-family
home areas
rezone for
smaller homes,
or multiple
homes per lot.
TODAY: High SALT Areas
sources: HiddenLevers, Business Insider, FRED
SF LA
USA BOS DC
Home Price Growth 2012-2017
NYC
California = Highest Risk
CA prices outpace USA average
+
high taxes
State + Local Tax Deduction, by County
HiddenLevers
POTENTIAL HOUSING STUMBLES
STUMBLES: History on Deductions
sources: HiddenLevers, TaxHistory, GFOA, NYT, TheBalance, FAS
Allows home owners to reduce taxable
income, promoting homeownership
Introduced: 1986 as part of the Tax
Reform Act
2010 – Controversy to eliminate tax
loopholes + add cut-off points to select
exclusions such as mortgage deduction.
Allows for State and Local Taxes to be
deducted to prevent double taxation
Introduced: 1862 as part of
federal income taxation
1985 - Attempt to repeal by Reagan
1986 – Eliminates deductibility of state
sales tax (Re-introduced in 2004)
Mortgage DeductionState + Local Taxes (SALT)
STUMBLES: High-tax State Impact
sources: HiddenLevers, NY Times, Motley Fool, Business Insider
Average State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction for High-Income (200k+) Tax Filers
States with Highest
SALT Deduction
Repeal of SALT deduction hits coastal metros like NYC, SF, LA, and DC hardest.
Rough estimates for a family with 600k income + 100k SALT deductions:
+22k AMT Repeal
-37k loss of SALT deductions at new top tax rate
-15k under new plan
STUMBLES: SALT deductions vs Bigger Problems
sources: HiddenLevers, NY Times, USA Today, Washington Post, NY Daily News, Coalition for the Homeless, Newsweek, HUD, Daily Californian,
Faster job growth elsewhere
Climate disasters too frequent
Pushback on denser housing
Rising homelessness = trouble
Tax plan kills SALT deductions
-> changes valuation calculus
-> high-tax states mostly on coast
Coastal Correction
Coastal Exodus
2009-16
USA -13%
2017
USA +0.7%
NYC +4%
LA +26%
SF FLAT
Alameda +20%
Homeless in USA
Homeless in USA
HiddenLevers
SCENARIO: US COASTAL EXODUS
NEW
UPDATE: US Housing = Too Basic
Sources: HiddenLevers
US Coastal ExodusUS Housing
BAD
GOOD
SCENARIO: US Coastal Exodus
Home Prices
-15%
S&P 500
-21%
Home Prices
+5%
S&P 500
+6%
$
CHINESE
BUYERS
REAL
DRIVER
Home Prices
-5%
S&P 500
-5%
-10% IN
HIGH-TAX
MARKETS
Foreign Money Steps In
High-Tax State
Correction
UGLY
Tax Plan +
Climate Change
LIFE IN
COASTAL
CITIES JUST
NOT WORTH
IT
NY
CA
NJ
High-Tax State Exodus – Let’s take a Look
See it on HiddenLevers
High-income coastal homeowners:
5 FIGURE TAX HIKE COMING
Finance sector inseparable from
real estate, will suffer if it does
Home prices
protected by slow
home construction
High-Tax State Exodus – Take-aways
Push factors bigger than taxes
creating Coastal Exodus
Sources: HiddenLevers

More Related Content

What's hot

May Housing Report
May Housing ReportMay Housing Report
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018
Annie Williams
 
Switch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to community
Switch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to communitySwitch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to community
Switch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to community
Tracy Dvorak-Marshall
 
A Bright Future For Housing in 2008
A Bright Future For Housing in 2008A Bright Future For Housing in 2008
A Bright Future For Housing in 2008
John Taylor
 
May 2020 Realtor Report
May 2020 Realtor ReportMay 2020 Realtor Report
Mortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate Report
Mortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate ReportMortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate Report
Mortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate Report
AMSI, San Francisco
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020
Jon Weaver
 
2018 January Real Estate Report
2018 January Real Estate Report2018 January Real Estate Report
2018 January Real Estate Report
Robb Fleischer, GRI
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020
Jon Weaver
 
Las Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market Statistics
Las Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market StatisticsLas Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market Statistics
Las Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market Statistics
Luxury Home Source
 
Interest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 Final
Interest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 FinalInterest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 Final
Interest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 Final
Bryan Spondre
 
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate Report
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate ReportZillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate Report
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate Report
AMSI, San Francisco
 
Would you like to own a home someday??
Would you like to own a home someday??Would you like to own a home someday??
Would you like to own a home someday??
talreznik
 
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
REALTORS
 
10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year
10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year
10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year
Tommy Toy
 
Marketmonitor11714
Marketmonitor11714Marketmonitor11714
Marketmonitor11714
Linda Twining
 
Robb fleischersf 2019feb
Robb fleischersf 2019febRobb fleischersf 2019feb
Robb fleischersf 2019feb
Robb Fleischer, GRI
 

What's hot (20)

May Housing Report
May Housing ReportMay Housing Report
May Housing Report
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2018
 
Economy Blues
Economy BluesEconomy Blues
Economy Blues
 
Switch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to community
Switch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to communitySwitch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to community
Switch. Save. Give.: Using energy deregulation to give back to community
 
A Bright Future For Housing in 2008
A Bright Future For Housing in 2008A Bright Future For Housing in 2008
A Bright Future For Housing in 2008
 
Big zero
Big zeroBig zero
Big zero
 
May 2020 Realtor Report
May 2020 Realtor ReportMay 2020 Realtor Report
May 2020 Realtor Report
 
Mortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate Report
Mortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate ReportMortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate Report
Mortgages Easier to Get - July/August Real Estate Report
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020
 
2018 January Real Estate Report
2018 January Real Estate Report2018 January Real Estate Report
2018 January Real Estate Report
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - July 2020
 
Las Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market Statistics
Las Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market StatisticsLas Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market Statistics
Las Vegas Luxury Home Source December 2017 Market Statistics
 
Interest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 Final
Interest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 FinalInterest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 Final
Interest Trade Me Revolution April28 30 Final
 
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate Report
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate ReportZillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate Report
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate Report
 
Would you like to own a home someday??
Would you like to own a home someday??Would you like to own a home someday??
Would you like to own a home someday??
 
Nar+midyear2010+residential final 51310
Nar+midyear2010+residential final 51310Nar+midyear2010+residential final 51310
Nar+midyear2010+residential final 51310
 
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
Housing Market and Economic Outlook: July 2011
 
10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year
10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year
10 Housing Markets That May Collapse This Year
 
Marketmonitor11714
Marketmonitor11714Marketmonitor11714
Marketmonitor11714
 
Robb fleischersf 2019feb
Robb fleischersf 2019febRobb fleischersf 2019feb
Robb fleischersf 2019feb
 

Similar to High tax state exodus - webinar-slides

Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020
Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020
Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020
hiddenlevers
 
Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015
Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015
Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015
hiddenlevers
 
Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?
Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?
Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?Yannick Naud
 
John Burns National Housing Update
John Burns National Housing UpdateJohn Burns National Housing Update
John Burns National Housing Update
hollybernie
 
Final sub prime crisis
Final sub prime crisisFinal sub prime crisis
Final sub prime crisis
Rahul Verma
 
Fund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New York
Fund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New YorkFund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New York
Fund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New York
strongforall
 
Real estate - Canada - December 2017
Real estate -  Canada - December 2017Real estate -  Canada - December 2017
Real estate - Canada - December 2017
paul young cpa, cga
 
Conservative economic mythology
Conservative economic mythologyConservative economic mythology
Conservative economic mythology
David Doney
 
Real Estate - Canada - November 2017
Real Estate  - Canada - November 2017Real Estate  - Canada - November 2017
Real Estate - Canada - November 2017
paul young cpa, cga
 
The Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New View
The Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New ViewThe Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New View
The Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New View
Kevin Erdmann
 
Explaining the Financial Crisis
Explaining the Financial CrisisExplaining the Financial Crisis
Explaining the Financial Crisis
Sal DB
 
Myth 100829211251-phpapp01
Myth 100829211251-phpapp01Myth 100829211251-phpapp01
Myth 100829211251-phpapp01plmcinto2
 
Equinaire's TARP Overview
Equinaire's TARP OverviewEquinaire's TARP Overview
Equinaire's TARP Overview
guestba5a0c8
 
Housing New Orleans
Housing New OrleansHousing New Orleans
Housing New Orleans
jadymitchell
 
Govt spending 28 oct 2021 - war-room slides
Govt spending   28 oct 2021 - war-room slidesGovt spending   28 oct 2021 - war-room slides
Govt spending 28 oct 2021 - war-room slides
hiddenlevers
 
Presentation22
Presentation22Presentation22
Presentation22rbbrown
 
Sub prime & eurozone crisis
Sub prime & eurozone crisisSub prime & eurozone crisis
Sub prime & eurozone crisisSiddhant Agarwal
 

Similar to High tax state exodus - webinar-slides (20)

Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020
Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020
Real Estate Post COVID War Room slides - 28 may 2020
 
Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015
Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015
Housing rebound webinar 09-01-2015
 
Jed Smith (Sept. 2008)
Jed Smith (Sept. 2008)Jed Smith (Sept. 2008)
Jed Smith (Sept. 2008)
 
Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?
Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?
Is the Fed blowing bubbles to cover up growing inequality.... …again?
 
John Burns National Housing Update
John Burns National Housing UpdateJohn Burns National Housing Update
John Burns National Housing Update
 
Final sub prime crisis
Final sub prime crisisFinal sub prime crisis
Final sub prime crisis
 
Fund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New York
Fund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New YorkFund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New York
Fund Our Future Tax The Rich Invest In Our New York
 
Real estate - Canada - December 2017
Real estate -  Canada - December 2017Real estate -  Canada - December 2017
Real estate - Canada - December 2017
 
Conservative economic mythology
Conservative economic mythologyConservative economic mythology
Conservative economic mythology
 
Real Estate - Canada - November 2017
Real Estate  - Canada - November 2017Real Estate  - Canada - November 2017
Real Estate - Canada - November 2017
 
The Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New View
The Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New ViewThe Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New View
The Housing Bubble and Financial Crisis: A New View
 
Explaining the Financial Crisis
Explaining the Financial CrisisExplaining the Financial Crisis
Explaining the Financial Crisis
 
Myth Busters
Myth BustersMyth Busters
Myth Busters
 
Myth 100829211251-phpapp01
Myth 100829211251-phpapp01Myth 100829211251-phpapp01
Myth 100829211251-phpapp01
 
Equinaire's TARP Overview
Equinaire's TARP OverviewEquinaire's TARP Overview
Equinaire's TARP Overview
 
Housing New Orleans
Housing New OrleansHousing New Orleans
Housing New Orleans
 
The Great Recession
The  Great  RecessionThe  Great  Recession
The Great Recession
 
Govt spending 28 oct 2021 - war-room slides
Govt spending   28 oct 2021 - war-room slidesGovt spending   28 oct 2021 - war-room slides
Govt spending 28 oct 2021 - war-room slides
 
Presentation22
Presentation22Presentation22
Presentation22
 
Sub prime & eurozone crisis
Sub prime & eurozone crisisSub prime & eurozone crisis
Sub prime & eurozone crisis
 

More from hiddenlevers

OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxOAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptxOAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptxOAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptxOAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptxOAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptxOAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptxOAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptxOAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptxOAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptxOAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptxOAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptxOAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptxOAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptxOAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptxOAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptxOAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptxOAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptxOAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptxOAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptxOAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptx
hiddenlevers
 

More from hiddenlevers (20)

OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxOAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptxOAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep18 WeighingTheRisks_Mar24_GlobalCredit.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptxOAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep17 WeighingTheRisks_Feb24_ChinasEconomicRisks.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptxOAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep16 WeighingTheRisks_Jan24_BitcointotheMoon.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptxOAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep15 WeighingTheRisks_Dec23_HealthCareConcerns.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptxOAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep14 WeighingTheRisks_Nov23_GeopoliticalConcerns.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptxOAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep13 WeighingTheRisks_Oct23_Immigration.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptxOAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep12 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_VulnerableRealEstatePrices.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptxOAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep11 WeighingTheRisks_Aug23_RisingEnergyPrices.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptxOAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep10 Weighingthe Risks_Jul 2023 Xavier Goss_Hannah Greene.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptxOAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep9 WeighingTheRisks_June23_AIBubbleBurst.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptxOAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep8 WeighingTheRisks_May23_BankingCrisis.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptxOAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep7 Weighingthe Risks_Apr2023_Debt.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptxOAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptxOAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep5 Weighingthe Risks_Feb 2023 Brendan Ahern.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptxOAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep4 Weighingthe Risks_Jan2022_Mike Ashton.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptxOAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep2 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Kim Arthur.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptxOAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Matthew Bartolini.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptxOAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep3 Weighingthe Risks_Dec2022_Grant Engelbart.pptx
 
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptxOAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep1 Weighingthe Risks_Midterm Election 2022_disclosures.pptx
 

Recently uploaded

how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
DOT TECH
 
managementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.ppt
managementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.pptmanagementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.ppt
managementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.ppt
SuseelaPalanimuthu
 
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theoriesScope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
nomankalyar153
 
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxFinancial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Writo-Finance
 
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfUS Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
pchutichetpong
 
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
lamluanvan.net Viết thuê luận văn
 
Summary of financial results for 1Q2024
Summary of financial  results for 1Q2024Summary of financial  results for 1Q2024
Summary of financial results for 1Q2024
InterCars
 
What website can I sell pi coins securely.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.What website can I sell pi coins securely.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.
DOT TECH
 
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
DOT TECH
 
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...
Vighnesh Shashtri
 
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
DOT TECH
 
what is the future of Pi Network currency.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.what is the future of Pi Network currency.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.
DOT TECH
 
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingThe European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
GRAPE
 
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.
DOT TECH
 
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchange
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangehow to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchange
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchange
DOT TECH
 
Which Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdf
Which Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdfWhich Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdf
Which Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdf
Kezex (KZX)
 
234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt
234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt
234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt
PravinPatil144525
 
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Introduction to Indian Financial System ()
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()
Avanish Goel
 
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont BraunWebinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
FinTech Belgium
 
Introduction to Value Added Tax System.ppt
Introduction to Value Added Tax System.pptIntroduction to Value Added Tax System.ppt
Introduction to Value Added Tax System.ppt
VishnuVenugopal84
 

Recently uploaded (20)

how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
 
managementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.ppt
managementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.pptmanagementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.ppt
managementaccountingunitiv-230422140105-dd17d80b.ppt
 
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theoriesScope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
 
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxFinancial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx
 
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfUS Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
 
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
This assessment plan proposal is to outline a structured approach to evaluati...
 
Summary of financial results for 1Q2024
Summary of financial  results for 1Q2024Summary of financial  results for 1Q2024
Summary of financial results for 1Q2024
 
What website can I sell pi coins securely.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.What website can I sell pi coins securely.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.
 
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
 
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...
 
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
 
what is the future of Pi Network currency.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.what is the future of Pi Network currency.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.
 
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingThe European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
 
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.
 
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchange
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangehow to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchange
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchange
 
Which Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdf
Which Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdfWhich Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdf
Which Crypto to Buy Today for Short-Term in May-June 2024.pdf
 
234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt
234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt
234Presentation on Indian Debt Market.ppt
 
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Introduction to Indian Financial System ()
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()
 
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont BraunWebinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
 
Introduction to Value Added Tax System.ppt
Introduction to Value Added Tax System.pptIntroduction to Value Added Tax System.ppt
Introduction to Value Added Tax System.ppt
 

High tax state exodus - webinar-slides

  • 1. High-Tax State Exodus 13 Dec 2017 War Room
  • 2. War Room Idea Generation Contextual Training Scenario Updates HiddenLevers runs on SCENARIOS like Facebook runs on PHOTOS
  • 3. The Skinny US Housing Market Today Potential Housing Stumbles Scenario: US Coastal Exodus High-Tax State Exodus NEW
  • 5. Extreme Weather Epic Rebound High-Tax State Exodus - Why Ripe? sources: HiddenLevers, CNBC, Tax Changes
  • 6. High-Tax State Exodus – Let’s take a Look See it on HiddenLevers
  • 7. High-income coastal homeowners: 5 FIGURE TAX HIKE COMING Finance sector inseparable from real estate, will suffer if it does Home prices protected by slow home construction High-Tax State Exodus – Take-aways Push factors bigger than taxes creating Coastal Exodus
  • 9. TODAY: US Housing Pulse Check Avg 1.46M peak 2M Housing Starts Now: 1.29M 12% below 50y average Low 870k US home prices are 6% above 2006 peak – but housing starts are still 12% below the long-term average, underpinning prices. sources: HiddenLevers, WSJ, Reuters, St. Louis FRED US Home Prices Case-Shiller Index Now: 195.5 2006: 184.6
  • 10. TODAY: Real Estate in Equity Markets sources: HiddenLevers Finance Sector (VFH) benefited as much from home price rise as real estate sector +50% +138% +214% +101% +217% March 2012 – US Home Prices reach lowest point since 2004 Since 03/2012
  • 11. TODAY: Sources of US Housing Demand sources: HiddenLevers, WSJ, LA Times, NY Times, Builder Online, SJ Mercury News, The Mortgage FOREIGN BUYERS 2017 $31.7B 2016 $27.3B 2017 $19B 2016 $8.9B RISING INCOMES First time home buying highest since 2000 Rising income means rising family formation MILLENIALS Paying premiums for proximity to business districts Less interested in commuting Single women buy more than single men RETIREES Not really downsizing Not letting single-family home areas rezone for smaller homes, or multiple homes per lot.
  • 12. TODAY: High SALT Areas sources: HiddenLevers, Business Insider, FRED SF LA USA BOS DC Home Price Growth 2012-2017 NYC California = Highest Risk CA prices outpace USA average + high taxes State + Local Tax Deduction, by County
  • 14. STUMBLES: History on Deductions sources: HiddenLevers, TaxHistory, GFOA, NYT, TheBalance, FAS Allows home owners to reduce taxable income, promoting homeownership Introduced: 1986 as part of the Tax Reform Act 2010 – Controversy to eliminate tax loopholes + add cut-off points to select exclusions such as mortgage deduction. Allows for State and Local Taxes to be deducted to prevent double taxation Introduced: 1862 as part of federal income taxation 1985 - Attempt to repeal by Reagan 1986 – Eliminates deductibility of state sales tax (Re-introduced in 2004) Mortgage DeductionState + Local Taxes (SALT)
  • 15. STUMBLES: High-tax State Impact sources: HiddenLevers, NY Times, Motley Fool, Business Insider Average State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction for High-Income (200k+) Tax Filers States with Highest SALT Deduction Repeal of SALT deduction hits coastal metros like NYC, SF, LA, and DC hardest. Rough estimates for a family with 600k income + 100k SALT deductions: +22k AMT Repeal -37k loss of SALT deductions at new top tax rate -15k under new plan
  • 16. STUMBLES: SALT deductions vs Bigger Problems sources: HiddenLevers, NY Times, USA Today, Washington Post, NY Daily News, Coalition for the Homeless, Newsweek, HUD, Daily Californian, Faster job growth elsewhere Climate disasters too frequent Pushback on denser housing Rising homelessness = trouble Tax plan kills SALT deductions -> changes valuation calculus -> high-tax states mostly on coast Coastal Correction Coastal Exodus 2009-16 USA -13% 2017 USA +0.7% NYC +4% LA +26% SF FLAT Alameda +20% Homeless in USA Homeless in USA
  • 18. UPDATE: US Housing = Too Basic Sources: HiddenLevers US Coastal ExodusUS Housing
  • 19. BAD GOOD SCENARIO: US Coastal Exodus Home Prices -15% S&P 500 -21% Home Prices +5% S&P 500 +6% $ CHINESE BUYERS REAL DRIVER Home Prices -5% S&P 500 -5% -10% IN HIGH-TAX MARKETS Foreign Money Steps In High-Tax State Correction UGLY Tax Plan + Climate Change LIFE IN COASTAL CITIES JUST NOT WORTH IT NY CA NJ
  • 20. High-Tax State Exodus – Let’s take a Look See it on HiddenLevers
  • 21. High-income coastal homeowners: 5 FIGURE TAX HIKE COMING Finance sector inseparable from real estate, will suffer if it does Home prices protected by slow home construction High-Tax State Exodus – Take-aways Push factors bigger than taxes creating Coastal Exodus Sources: HiddenLevers

Editor's Notes

  1. 10. AS: homebuilder stocks / etfs / mutual fund performance (US incomes rising, economy growing, Re construction) 14. AS: history – how long has SALT deduction been around? Mortgage deduction? 1985 attempt to repeal SALT deductions… mortgage interest deduction created mid 2000s bubble Property taxes diferentiated from SALT State property and mortgage interest What When introduced Attempts to repeal /limit