The document discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, highlighting a potential V-shaped recovery despite ongoing challenges. Housing market indicators show a decline in sales but an increase in pending sales, alongside rising median prices and low inventory. Overall, the report suggests a cautious optimism for recovery in the housing market as consumer confidence begins to return.

1. What’s Next?
Remember the good old days when the only thing we had to worry about was a deadly pandemic? Seems like
only yesterday. Oh wait…
Yet with exceptions made for protesters and looters, our households are still on modified lockdown due to CV-19
that is continuing to wreak havoc with our economy, with our local business community and with our municipal
budgets. As one columnist recently noted, ‘we’re participating willingly and, with some, quite enthusiastically, in
burning down our economic house.’
But it could be that some areas of the economy are starting to rebound. Stock market and jobs data released
today pointed to a big rally on Wall Street, and suggested the economy could be on a much quicker than
expected path to recovery. We may see that V shaped recovery instead of the more prolonged swoosh after all,
although we’re certainly not out of the woods yet.
However, there are some brighter lights in housing and both our state and national Chief Economists, as well as
other local prognosticators, point to housing as one economic element that will lead the charge out of the
morass. While consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since 1973, the record 10 year recovery
and jobs streak has ended, and GDP has taken a shot across the bow, interest rates are again at record lows
with the possibility of dropping further, and mortgage applications hit their low point the week of April 10 and
have been climbing ever since.
Locally we did see a further decline in sales of 9% month-over-month (760 / 695) and a 39% drop year-over-year
(1131), Year-to-date we’re only off 9% (4,171 / 3,815) which puts us back to 2014 sales level. And while I will
make the argument that given what we’re going through, that’s not that bad, I will also point to the fact that
pending sales are up 28% heading into June (857 / 1,183). While that won’t put us on track to win any prizes, it’s
certainly a good omen and precursor of a decent month. As the market loosens up, as consumer confidence
returns, as the economy rebounds, buyers moved by low interest rates may come into the market in droves.
Further, shifts in attitudes may drive more buyers to our inland communities signaling an end to the decade-long
California myth perpetuated by Sacramento that ‘everybody wants to live in highly dense urban areas
convenient to shopping and transportation hubs.’ Until, that is, a pandemic comes along and those high density
areas prove to be the most deadly. And until the wave of Millenials discover the joys of family life with 2 kids and
a pet and their own backyard. Reality trumps Agenda 21 driven ‘smart growth’ planning.
More good news, median prices across the region rose 2% month-over-month ($405,667 / $414,150) and
maintained a 6% lead year-over-year ($388,974). Year-to-date we’re also up by 6% (377,964 / $403,972) with
our regional median price crossing the $400,000 barrier for the first time in over a decade. The pro’s suggest
prices statewide may only appreciate 0% - 2% this year and rise just 1% - 3% next year. In one recent forecast
CoreLogic opined we may actually see a drop in median price in 2021. Barring a broader market retraction
(always possible), I’m just not seeing that. Then again, they get paid for their opinions so what do I know. I guess
time will tell.
Here’s why. You’d have to go back to July of 2013 to find a lower inventory, 1,193 units on the market providing
just 1.9 months of backup. 1.3 in Lake Elsinore, 1.5 in Murrieta and Menifee, 1.6 in Temecula and Perris. And
properties continue to fly off the market. While average days on market was up to 22.9 days in May from 16 days
in April, it’s still just 12 days in Wildomar, 13 in Murrieta and 17 in Temecula. Let’s see – inventory down, interest
rates dropping, demand rising, the economy improving – sounds like a recipe for market resurgence to me.
But we also can’t take a single month and extrapolate too far down the road. There’s still time to drive this bus
off the track, and given some of the bills that Sacramento is trying to foist on us, could happen. In the meanwhile,
stay safe, practice your distancing, and support your local businesses trying to reopen.

2. Southwest
California
Reporting
Period
Current
Month
Last
Month Year Ago
Change from
Last Month
Change from
Year Ago
Existing Home Sales
(SFR Detached)
May 2020 695 760 1131 9% 39%
Median Home Price $414,150 $405,667 $388,974 2% 6%
Unsold Inventory Index
(SFR Units)
1,193 1,490 2,440 20% 51%
Unsold Inventory Index
(Months)
1.9 2.1 2.4 10% 21%
Median Time on
Market (Days)
22.9 16 34.2 28% 32%
SW Market @ A Glance
Source: CRMLS

3. 6%

4. April 2020 SFR Transaction Value*:
Temecula $66,648,889 Lake Elsinore $32,556,820
Murrieta $71,854,635 Wildomar $86,77,580
Menifee $59,408,425 Canyon $10,510,900
Hemet $35,153,134 San Jacinto $16,955,544
Perris $22,393,240 Total $324,159,167
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.
Year-Over-Year Median Price:
2019 2020 %
Temecula $487,000 $507,700 4%
Murrieta $437,000 $459,950 5%
Menifee $375,000 $400,700 6%
Lake Elsinore $374,000 $405,000 8%
Wildomar $415,000 $445,000 7%
Canyon Lake $485,500 $520,000 7%
Hemet $270,000 $288,000 6%
San Jacinto $309,900 $302,000 3%
Perris $345,750 $385,000 10%
May 2020 SFR Transaction Value*:
Temecula $73,263,010 Lake Elsinore $33,344,896
Murrieta $59,950,609 Wildomar $11,082,800
Menifee $54,609,394 Canyon Lake $97,98,300
Hemet $25,937,170 San Jacinto $14,100,233
Perris $18,668,380 Total $300,754,792
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.

5. May Demand
Supply (1,490 – 1,193) 20%
Pending (857 – 1,183) 28%
Demand (760 - 695) 9%
Days on Market (16 – 22.9) 30%
Months Inventory (2.1 – 1.9) 10%
Absorption ( 88% - 66%) 25%
Month over Month

6. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Wildomar
0
50
100
150
200
250
Hemet Perris Canyon Lake Menifee San Jacinto
Southwest California Homes
SFR sales I-15 corridor
Southwest California Homes
SFR sales I-215 corridor

7. $250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Lake Elsinore
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris

8. Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold % of MKT
Temecula 198 96% 125 98% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Murrieta 154 83% 111 89% 5 3% 1 1% 2 1% 0 0%
Wildomar 40 93% 23 92% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Lake Elsinore 101 94% 81 98% 1 1% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Menifee 194 96% 129 93% 1 0% 0 0% 0 0% 3 2%
Canyon Lake 60 92% 17 100% 1 2% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Hemet 221 91% 81 91% 3 1% 0 0% 3 1% 1 1%
San Jacinto 61 92% 43 93% 0 0% 2 4% 1 2% 0 0%
Perris 67 91% 43 77% 1 1% 0 0% 1 1% 0 0%
Regional
Average
1096 92% 653 92% 12 1% 3 0% 7 1% 4 1%
May 2020 Market Activity
By Sales Type
Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale
City Median Sold $ Average Sold $ Average SqFt Bed Bath YrBlt
Temecula $507,700 $576,874 2,549 4 3 1997
Murrieta $459,950 $483,473 2,462 4 3 2002
Wildomar $445,000 $443,312 2,429 4 3 1998
Lake Elsinore $405,000 $401,746 22,008 4 3 2005
Menifee $400,700 $395,720 2,124 4 3 2004
Canyon Lake $520,000 $576,371 1,754 3 3 1984
Hemet $288,000 $291,429 1,887 4 2 1987
San Jacinto $302,000 $306,527 2,216 4 2 1997
Perris $385,000 $414,853 2,116 4 3 2002
Your 'Average' House, May 2020
By City
Source: CRMLS

10. Summary of
Recent presentation from
California Association of Realtors®
&
National Association of Realtors®