- New home sales in November rebounded significantly from the previous month, with an annualized rate of 657,000 units sold, the best reading since March 2018. However, this spike in sales was likely due to homebuilders cutting prices to reduce inventory levels. - At its January meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled that it plans to be patient with further interest rate hikes in light of muted inflation and concerns about the global economy. The Fed also removed forward guidance about gradual rate hikes, saying future adjustments will be based on supporting maximum employment and stable prices. - Markets responded positively to the Fed's dovish signals, with stocks rallying and bond yields falling after the January meeting. However, home

1. momentum for condos/lofts fell 0.5 of a
point to +7.6.
Our momentum statistics are based on
12-month moving averages to eliminate
monthly and seasonal variations.
This is an extraordinarily tough market
for buyers. It's important to be calm and
realistic. If you don't know what to do or
where to begin, give me a call and let's
discuss your situation and your options.
Home sales were at their lowest level in
January since January 2009 when only
81 homes were sold. Last month 95
homes were sold, a drop of 39.5% from
December. Year-over-year, home sales
were off 42.1%.
Condo/loft sales were at their lowest
level since February 2009. There were
110 condos sold last month, off 38.5%
from December, and, they were down
33.3% year-over-year.
Year-over-year, the median sales price
for homes was up 6.8% and the average
price gained 9.6%. That’s the fifteenth
month in a row prices have been higher
than the year before. Nevertheless, since
reaching new highs in October, prices
have been declining.
The median price for condo/loft prices
was up year-over-year 3.4%, while the
average price lost 6.3%. As with homes,
prices declined month-over-month.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what
buyers are paying over what sellers are
asking remains in the triple digits, but
has been declining: 104.2% for homes
and 100.1% for condos/lofts.
Although multiple offers continue to be
the norm, the number of offers on a
property continue to decline.
Average days on market, or the time from
when a property is listed to when it goes
into contract, was up to 41 for homes and
57 for condos/lofts.
for homes dropped 1.8
points to –20.1. Sales
momentum for
condos/lofts was down
1.6 points to –5.6.
for single-family homes
fell 0.7 of a point to
+14.2. Pricing
AMSI Real Estate Services
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/
CA BRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer
ROBB FLEISCHER | RFLEISCHER@AMSIEMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com
Jan 19 Month % Dec 18 Year % Jan 18
Median Price: 1,375,000$ -8.3% 1,500,000$ 9.6% 1,255,000$
Average Price: 1,680,053$ -6.5% 1,796,156$ 6.8% 1,573,083$
Home Sales: 95 -39.5% 157 -42.1% 164
Sale/List Price Ratio: 104.2% -2.1% 106.5% -1.9% 106.2%
Days on Market: 41 24.1% 33 6.5% 39
Jan 19 Month % Dec 18 Year % Jan 18
Median Price: 1,050,000$ -12.1% 1,195,000$ 3.4% 1,015,000$
Average Price: 1,176,949$ -12.2% 1,339,998$ -6.3% 1,255,677$
Home Sales: 110 -38.5% 179 -33.3% 165
Sale/List Price Ratio: 100.1% -0.8% 100.9% -0.4% 100.5%
Days on Market: 57 28.6% 44 8.4% 53
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
(Condominiums)

2. February 1, 2019 -- After a stumble in December, the
Federal Reserve seemed to present a more cohesive
message to markets at the close of its January meet-
ing this week. Last month, markets responded poorly
to what they perceived as a Fed intent on lifting rates
until the economy broke, and one that would not alter
a balance sheet reduction plan that was said to be on
"autopilot."
The January statement was quite clear about the
central bank's intentions: "In light of global economic
and financial developments and muted inflation pres-
sures, the Committee will be patient as it determines
what future adjustments to the target range for the
federal funds rate may be appropriate to support
these outcomes."
Omitted from the statement was any reference to the
balance of risks to the economy, an indication Fed
members may not be certain if risks of concern are
accumulating somewhere. Perhaps more important
was the removal of any "forward guidance". the state-
ment indicated that the Committed judged "that some
further gradual increases in the target range for the
federal funds rate will be consistent" with meeting
their twin goals of stable employment and prices. Six
weeks later, and it's simply "what future adjust-
ments... may be appropriate".
In the press conference after the meeting, Mr. Powell
notably said that "The case for raising rates has
weakened somewhat."
Collectively, investors liked what they heard, and
both a sizable rally in stocks and a fall in bond yields
happened in the aftermath. The former was enough
to provide stock markets their best January in 30
years (unfortunately, it came on the heels of the
worst December for stocks in about 90 years).
We have known for some time that home sales were
slowing due to a combination of higher home prices,
higher mortgage rates and a lack of desirable inven-
tory. As well, we saw measurable declines in home-
builder sentiment indexes in November and Decem-
ber as they fell back to earth from lofty levels, but
believed that a couple of point rebound in January
might have revealed an uptick in sales of new
homes.
In fact, the delayed November report covering sales
of new homes out this week did just that, revealing
that a significant rebound in sales took place during
November. The report noted that the annualized rate
of sale rose by 95,000 to 657,000 units, the best
reading since March 2018; Of course, this flare in
sales was arguably caused by price cutting by build-
ers to help clear inventory, as the month-to-month
(Continued on page 4)
ROBB FLEISCHER
AMSI REAL ESTATE SERVICES
(415) 447-2009
RFLEISCHER@AMSIEMAIL.COM
CA BRE #01403882
The chart above shows the National month-
ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/.
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
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01-19
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,375,000$ 1,680,053$ 95 41 104.2% 9.6% 6.8% -42.1% -8.3% -6.5% -39.5%
D1: Northwest 1,575,000$ 2,108,409$ 11 40 100.6% -10.0% 20.5% ###### -18.7% -1.2% -31.3%
D2: Central West 1,374,000$ 1,423,500$ 18 37 110.5% 1.8% -0.3% 5.9% 6.5% 2.9% -28.0%
D3: Southwest 951,500$ 986,333$ 6 35 107.0% 0.7% -7.5% -45.5% -17.3% -21.5% -33.3%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,700,000$ 1,589,333$ 9 47 105.7% -20.0% -20.5% -18.2% 2.8% -13.0% -62.5%
D5: Central 2,550,000$ 2,788,077$ 13 36 102.4% 25.9% 14.3% 44.4% 15.1% 14.4% -50.0%
D6: Central North 1,800,000$ 2,006,667$ 3 35 98.0% -7.7% -8.8% 0.0% 2.0% 10.3% -25.0%
D7: North 4,695,000$ 4,231,667$ 3 59 100.8% 18.9% -12.1% -50.0% 32.3% -8.4% -40.0%
D8: Northeast 2,650,000$ 2,650,000$ 1 147 102.1% -48.7% -48.7% -50.0% 15.2% 21.9% -66.7%
D9: Central East 1,300,000$ 1,324,222$ 9 41 107.6% -35.2% -31.7% 12.5% -4.6% -20.3% -35.7%
D10: Southeast 929,000$ 956,344$ 22 40 105.3% -6.0% -3.6% -18.5% -16.7% -14.3% -29.0%
January Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

3. ROBB FLEISCHER
AMSI REAL ESTATE SERVICES
(415) 447-2009
RFLEISCHER@AMSIEMAIL.COM
CA BRE #014038820
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San Francisco Homes: Days on Market
© 2019 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum
Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,050,000$ 1,176,949$ 110 57 100.1% 3.4% -6.3% -33.3% -12.1% -12.2% -38.5%
D1: Northwest 1,187,500$ 1,222,500$ 4 68 96.8% -1.0% -8.8% -20.0% 5.6% 3.3% -69.2%
D2: Central West 957,500$ 957,500$ 2 41 101.2% -24.9% -24.9% 100.0% -3.3% 8.3% -60.0%
D3: Southwest -$ -$ 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D4: Twin Peaks 648,000$ 672,463$ 5 84 102.6% 21.1% 25.7% 400.0% -2.6% -14.6% 66.7%
D5: Central 1,255,000$ 1,353,357$ 14 22 107.8% 2.0% 5.9% 16.7% -18.6% -11.1% -30.0%
D6: Central North 777,500$ 1,035,500$ 6 109 97.5% -37.6% -11.8% -64.7% -25.8% -16.5% -66.7%
D7: North 1,190,000$ 1,470,806$ 14 53 101.0% -45.8% -38.2% -12.5% -32.0% -25.5% -17.6%
D8: Northeast 975,000$ 1,134,639$ 18 80 96.6% -4.9% -22.1% -33.3% -23.1% -21.5% -40.0%
D9: Central East 989,818$ 1,196,276$ 39 47 98.9% -10.0% -1.1% -17.0% -14.3% -5.4% -40.0%
D10: Southeast 805,000$ 768,800$ 5 70 102.4% 21.6% 16.6% -50.0% 2.5% -2.1% 400.0%
January Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

4. Robb Fleischer
AMSI Real Estate Services
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
change in median sales prices fell by more
than 10%. With the boos in sales, inventory
levels at the present pace of sale fell back
to six months (some 330,000 units, the
highest actual-unit figure of the years-long
recovery and expansion).
It's unlikely that existing homeowners would
(or could) cut prices so aggressively, which
in turn would help fuel more sales of exist-
ing homes, so potential buyers will have to
content themselves with mortgage rates
about a half-percentage point below recent
peaks to help offset affordability troubles. That said,
lower rates may not be sufficient to provide
much immediate help, as the National Associa-
tion of Realtors reports that Pending Home
(Continued from page 2)
Sales Index declined another 2.2% in December, a
twelfth consecutive month that this index has post- ed year-over-year declines.
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change
© 2019 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2019 rereport.com