The document provides an industry update from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. It discusses 16 weeks of positive news in the housing market including the opening of debt markets, tax credit extensions, and falling mortgage rates. It also notes concerns around "shadow inventory," which refers to the large number of delinquent homes that will eventually hit the market and add supply. However, the document emphasizes that affordability is now the highest it's been in over 30 years, with half of all mortgages costing less than $1,000 per month. It concludes there is currently zero need to build new homes given oversupply issues and lack of demand due to high unemployment.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. Government programs like the FDIC principal reduction program aim to help troubled homeowners. Jumbo mortgages are becoming more available again after tightening during the financial crisis. The document provides tips for homeowners regarding tax deductions and credits.
This document summarizes recent trends in the US housing market and real estate industry. It finds that existing home sales increased for the fourth consecutive month in July, driven by first-time buyers. While home prices and inventory levels remain lower than last year, prices have stabilized and are rising slowly from early 2009 lows. Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, improving affordability. The economy may continue to face challenges but signs point to a recovery in 2010 supported by government programs.
Shawn Kormondy of Reis Group is a top producing real estate agent at a prestigious Beverly Hills real estate firm, Keller Williams Realty. He specializes in Hollywood Hills, West Hollywood, and Miracle Mile real estate. Shawn can be contacted by visiting one of his web sites, www.reisgroup.org or www.developweho.com
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization.
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization. Tips are provided for home sellers to make small, low-cost improvements.
The document provides commentary on recent trends in the US housing market. It discusses how home sales have risen above year-ago levels for the first time since the home buyer tax credit expired, indicating continued recovery without government support. It also notes that while home prices softened slightly in January due to higher distressed home sales, mortgage rates and prices remain favorable for buyers. Housing inventory continues to decline while months of housing supply dropped to its lowest level in over a year. The document also summarizes upcoming increases to Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premiums.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. Government programs like the FDIC principal reduction program aim to help troubled homeowners. Jumbo mortgages are becoming more available again after tightening during the financial crisis. The document provides tips for homeowners regarding tax deductions and credits.
This document summarizes recent trends in the US housing market and real estate industry. It finds that existing home sales increased for the fourth consecutive month in July, driven by first-time buyers. While home prices and inventory levels remain lower than last year, prices have stabilized and are rising slowly from early 2009 lows. Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, improving affordability. The economy may continue to face challenges but signs point to a recovery in 2010 supported by government programs.
Shawn Kormondy of Reis Group is a top producing real estate agent at a prestigious Beverly Hills real estate firm, Keller Williams Realty. He specializes in Hollywood Hills, West Hollywood, and Miracle Mile real estate. Shawn can be contacted by visiting one of his web sites, www.reisgroup.org or www.developweho.com
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization.
This document provides a summary of recent real estate market trends and government actions. It discusses signs of a slow economic recovery and stabilization in home prices. While home sales are improving, foreclosures remain high. The housing market relies on the first-time homebuyer tax credit and Fed mortgage purchases, though these programs may end soon. Sustained recovery requires a balanced housing inventory through price stabilization. Tips are provided for home sellers to make small, low-cost improvements.
The document provides commentary on recent trends in the US housing market. It discusses how home sales have risen above year-ago levels for the first time since the home buyer tax credit expired, indicating continued recovery without government support. It also notes that while home prices softened slightly in January due to higher distressed home sales, mortgage rates and prices remain favorable for buyers. Housing inventory continues to decline while months of housing supply dropped to its lowest level in over a year. The document also summarizes upcoming increases to Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premiums.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. Government programs like the FDIC principal reduction program aim to help troubled homeowners. Jumbo mortgages are becoming more available again after tightening during the financial crisis. The tax deadline is approaching and the document provides tips for homeowner tax deductions and credits.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. The government is taking actions like testing principal reduction to help homeowners. Topics covered for buyers, sellers and owners include tax deductions and credits. The local market varies so talking to a real estate agent is advised.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and fewer homes on the market. Experts expect further recovery in 2010 as the economy grows and the government continues efforts to help homeowners and the unemployed. The FDIC plans a program to reduce principal for underwater homeowners to prevent foreclosures. Jumbo loans are also becoming more available after tightening during the financial crisis.
Shawn Kormondy of Kelller Williams Realty and REIS GROUP, Inc. present "This Month in Real Estate, September 2009. This report features interesting data on who is buying, what those people are buying and how they are funding the purchase.
This document provides a summary of the real estate market in July 2009. It notes that home sales and prices have increased for four months while inventory has decreased, signaling a recovery. However, tight credit availability remains a challenge. The economy appears to be slowly improving, though unemployment and interest rates could impact the recovery. Recent government actions include expanding loan modification programs and FHA capacity to support the market.
The document discusses recent housing market trends and government actions. It provides data on home sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government action extended the homebuyer tax credit deadline. Topics for home buyers, sellers, and owners include real estate investing opportunities and working with a local Keller Williams agent to understand the local market.
- The housing market continues its gradual recovery without government assistance like tax credits, while interest rates hit new lows but have started rising as the economy improves. Consumer confidence and retail sales are up substantially from last year.
- Home sales dipped slightly in October but pending sales rose over 10%, signaling stronger future sales. Inventory fell as prices stabilized near 1% changes. Affordability remains near record highs.
- The government extended conforming loan limits in expensive markets to provide continued support through 2011 as the market strengthens without as much assistance. Overall the document discusses positive economic and housing market trends.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
This document provides a summary of recent developments in the US housing market in August 2009. It discusses signs of recovery such as rising home sales and prices. It also summarizes key housing market indicators like inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government actions to help homeowners and first-time buyers are also outlined.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
Budding signs of economic recovery continued in October. GDP grew 3.5% in Q3, the first quarterly growth in over a year. Home sales jumped 9.4% in September due to the homebuyer tax credit. An extension of the tax credit passed through Congress in early November, expanding eligibility. The recovery is ongoing but unemployment, government debt, and trade imbalances still need addressing.
The housing market continues to gradually improve without government support. While home prices and sales have declined compared to last year, inventory levels have returned to pre-tax credit levels. Low interest rates are encouraging buyers, but are expected to rise over 2012. Employment growth needs to continue for a full housing recovery, as jobs enable people to buy homes. Stimulus efforts will gradually wind down, but buyers still have favorable conditions in the market.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the "doom and gloom" messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, though prices remained stable. Mortgage rates set new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages, credit reports, credit/debit cards, and creates a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner. Local lenders may offer more competitive rates than large banks.
This Month in Real Estate PowerPoint for U.S. Market - September 2010Keller Williams Careers
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, while home prices remained stable. Mortgage rates continued setting new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages and credit cards intended to protect consumers.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner compared to a 30-year loan.
This Month in Real Estate, September 2001, is brought to you by Paul W. Drury, Real Estate Broker with Keller Williams Realty Greater Cleveland West. It is a collection of national news, information, and statistics as well as information specific to the North Central Ohio Region between Lakewood and Sandusky and south to the Lodi / Ashland Area.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across North America. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help Keller Williams Realty realtors combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on the state of the real estate market.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US housing market in September 2009. It discusses signs of recovery including rising home sales and stabilizing home prices. Existing home sales increased for the 4th consecutive month in July. First-time buyers and distressed home sales continue to drive the market. Mortgage rates remain low, improving affordability. The government's homebuyer tax credit and "Cash for Clunkers" programs boosted the economy. Overall the market indicates continued recovery, though unemployment remains high.
Things to Consider When Buying a Home - Summer 2023 EditionTom Blefko
Buying a new home can be a complicated process. This guide will inform you and answer many of your questions about buying a home in the Summer of 2023.
The document summarizes key real estate market trends in Canada from December 2009. Home sales increased 72% year-over-year in December, while the average home price rose 19% to $337,410 nationally. Inventory levels also increased from the previous year, but remained low overall indicating a strong seller's market. Mortgage rates remained low at 5.49% for a 5-year fixed rate, supporting buyer demand. The document also discusses recent economic events and provides tips for home buyers in competitive bidding situations.
Dr. Lawrence Yun - 13th Annual Economic SummitNVAR .com
The document summarizes real estate market trends and outlook in the United States. It discusses topics such as national existing home sales, home prices, housing affordability, foreclosure and delinquency rates, housing starts, the state of the economy, job changes, and the federal budget deficit. It also provides forecasts for home sales and prices and discusses factors that could lead to inflation or deflation in the future. The outlook is that stimulus spending and falling housing inventory will help stabilize home prices in the coming years.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. Government programs like the FDIC principal reduction program aim to help troubled homeowners. Jumbo mortgages are becoming more available again after tightening during the financial crisis. The tax deadline is approaching and the document provides tips for homeowner tax deductions and credits.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. The government is taking actions like testing principal reduction to help homeowners. Topics covered for buyers, sellers and owners include tax deductions and credits. The local market varies so talking to a real estate agent is advised.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and fewer homes on the market. Experts expect further recovery in 2010 as the economy grows and the government continues efforts to help homeowners and the unemployed. The FDIC plans a program to reduce principal for underwater homeowners to prevent foreclosures. Jumbo loans are also becoming more available after tightening during the financial crisis.
Shawn Kormondy of Kelller Williams Realty and REIS GROUP, Inc. present "This Month in Real Estate, September 2009. This report features interesting data on who is buying, what those people are buying and how they are funding the purchase.
This document provides a summary of the real estate market in July 2009. It notes that home sales and prices have increased for four months while inventory has decreased, signaling a recovery. However, tight credit availability remains a challenge. The economy appears to be slowly improving, though unemployment and interest rates could impact the recovery. Recent government actions include expanding loan modification programs and FHA capacity to support the market.
The document discusses recent housing market trends and government actions. It provides data on home sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government action extended the homebuyer tax credit deadline. Topics for home buyers, sellers, and owners include real estate investing opportunities and working with a local Keller Williams agent to understand the local market.
- The housing market continues its gradual recovery without government assistance like tax credits, while interest rates hit new lows but have started rising as the economy improves. Consumer confidence and retail sales are up substantially from last year.
- Home sales dipped slightly in October but pending sales rose over 10%, signaling stronger future sales. Inventory fell as prices stabilized near 1% changes. Affordability remains near record highs.
- The government extended conforming loan limits in expensive markets to provide continued support through 2011 as the market strengthens without as much assistance. Overall the document discusses positive economic and housing market trends.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
This document provides a summary of recent developments in the US housing market in August 2009. It discusses signs of recovery such as rising home sales and prices. It also summarizes key housing market indicators like inventory, mortgage rates, and affordability. Recent government actions to help homeowners and first-time buyers are also outlined.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
Budding signs of economic recovery continued in October. GDP grew 3.5% in Q3, the first quarterly growth in over a year. Home sales jumped 9.4% in September due to the homebuyer tax credit. An extension of the tax credit passed through Congress in early November, expanding eligibility. The recovery is ongoing but unemployment, government debt, and trade imbalances still need addressing.
The housing market continues to gradually improve without government support. While home prices and sales have declined compared to last year, inventory levels have returned to pre-tax credit levels. Low interest rates are encouraging buyers, but are expected to rise over 2012. Employment growth needs to continue for a full housing recovery, as jobs enable people to buy homes. Stimulus efforts will gradually wind down, but buyers still have favorable conditions in the market.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across the nation. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help agents combat the "doom and gloom" messages of the national print and television media with real information on real estate.
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, though prices remained stable. Mortgage rates set new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages, credit reports, credit/debit cards, and creates a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner. Local lenders may offer more competitive rates than large banks.
This Month in Real Estate PowerPoint for U.S. Market - September 2010Keller Williams Careers
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, while home prices remained stable. Mortgage rates continued setting new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages and credit cards intended to protect consumers.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner compared to a 30-year loan.
This Month in Real Estate, September 2001, is brought to you by Paul W. Drury, Real Estate Broker with Keller Williams Realty Greater Cleveland West. It is a collection of national news, information, and statistics as well as information specific to the North Central Ohio Region between Lakewood and Sandusky and south to the Lodi / Ashland Area.
Each month, This Month in Real Estate provides expert opinion and analysis on real estate trends across North America. The aim of the consumer-oriented segments is to help Keller Williams Realty realtors combat the “doom and gloom” messages of the national print and television media with real information on the state of the real estate market.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US housing market in September 2009. It discusses signs of recovery including rising home sales and stabilizing home prices. Existing home sales increased for the 4th consecutive month in July. First-time buyers and distressed home sales continue to drive the market. Mortgage rates remain low, improving affordability. The government's homebuyer tax credit and "Cash for Clunkers" programs boosted the economy. Overall the market indicates continued recovery, though unemployment remains high.
Things to Consider When Buying a Home - Summer 2023 EditionTom Blefko
Buying a new home can be a complicated process. This guide will inform you and answer many of your questions about buying a home in the Summer of 2023.
The document summarizes key real estate market trends in Canada from December 2009. Home sales increased 72% year-over-year in December, while the average home price rose 19% to $337,410 nationally. Inventory levels also increased from the previous year, but remained low overall indicating a strong seller's market. Mortgage rates remained low at 5.49% for a 5-year fixed rate, supporting buyer demand. The document also discusses recent economic events and provides tips for home buyers in competitive bidding situations.
Dr. Lawrence Yun - 13th Annual Economic SummitNVAR .com
The document summarizes real estate market trends and outlook in the United States. It discusses topics such as national existing home sales, home prices, housing affordability, foreclosure and delinquency rates, housing starts, the state of the economy, job changes, and the federal budget deficit. It also provides forecasts for home sales and prices and discusses factors that could lead to inflation or deflation in the future. The outlook is that stimulus spending and falling housing inventory will help stabilize home prices in the coming years.
2010 Real Estate Market Forecast: Jed Smith Real Estate Roundtable PresentationKent Simpson
Real estate market forecast for the rest of 2010 provided by Jed Smith, economist for National Association of REALTORS - presented on the Real Estate RoundTable show on BlogTalkRadio March 5, 2010.
Mortgage Closing Costs Rising - The Real Estate Report August/SeptemberAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report August/September, local market trends San Francisco: "Mortgage Closing Costs Rising" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
The document discusses trends in the US housing market and forecasts for the future. It notes that housing sales and prices have declined significantly from their peaks but seem to have stabilized. It analyzes factors like the economy, job market, mortgage rates, foreclosures, and consumer confidence and their impact on the housing market. It forecasts that the housing market will continue to be slow in the short-run but recover in coming years as the economy and job market improve and housing inventory and foreclosures are reduced.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. Government programs like the FDIC principal reduction program aim to help troubled homeowners. Jumbo mortgages are becoming more available again. The tax filing season brings deductions and credits for homeowners from 2009. Local market conditions vary so buyers and sellers should consult their real estate agent.
The document summarizes recent developments in the US housing market. It discusses signs of recovery including lower mortgage rates and inventory. The government is taking actions like testing principal reduction to help homeowners. Topics covered for buyers, sellers and owners include tax deductions and credits. The local market varies so talking to a real estate agent is advised.
- Home sales fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months due to the expiration of the federal tax credit, while home prices remained stable. Mortgage rates continued setting new record lows.
- The new financial reform law establishes new regulations for mortgages, credit reports, credit/debit cards, and creates a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to regulate consumer loans.
- Buying a home with a 15-year mortgage allows buyers to build equity faster by paying off the loan sooner compared to a 30-year loan. Local lenders may offer more competitive rates than large banks.
Annie Williams Real Estate Market Trends Aug/Sep 2013Jon Weaver
The document summarizes local real estate market trends in San Francisco. It reports that median condo prices rose 10.3% month-over-month and 24.6% year-over-year in July. Condo sales were down 26.3% from June but up 18.9% year-over-year. Single-family home sales were up 19.9% year-over-year in July, while the median price dipped 7.3% from June but rose 17.3% from the previous July. Mortgage closing costs have increased 6% over the past year due to low rates bringing more refinancing and new regulations. Foreclosure activity remained low with one notice of default and sale filed
This document provides advice and information for homeowners considering selling their house. It contains the following key points:
1. The housing market is recovering, but sales are increasing faster than prices. Prices may continue softening through 2012 as foreclosures enter the market.
2. Sellers have a limited window of opportunity to sell for a higher price before renewed downward pressure on prices in the second half of 2012 from delayed foreclosures hitting the market.
3. Paying a full real estate commission is worthwhile because agents can expertly guide sellers through today's complex market and negotiate the best deal. Cutting commissions may result in less experienced representation.
The housing market recovery slowed in July after the homebuyer tax credit expired, with home sales falling below year-ago levels for the first time in 14 months. However, home prices remained stable and mortgage rates set new record lows, maintaining historically high affordability. The job market and economy recovery remained concerns. New financial reform laws aimed to strengthen consumer protections for mortgages and credit reporting.
The document summarizes recent housing market data and trends. Mortgage rates are at record lows but job growth is needed for sustained recovery. Home sales increased year-over-year but slowed in May. Prices rose slightly from a year ago but distressed home sales still impact the market. Inventory levels remained similar to last year, supporting price stability. Affordability remains high due to low prices and rates.
Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence YunWRAR
Housing Market Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings
Washington, D.C.
May 12, 2011
- The housing market outlook report discusses factors that could lead to higher home sales in 2011 such as improving job creation, a stabilizing real estate market, and more potential home buyers who can afford to purchase.
- However, there are also risks like tight lending standards, high unemployment, and potential changes in housing policies that could negatively impact the housing market recovery.
- The baseline housing market outlook predicts a moderate economic expansion with rising home sales and values but stable national home prices over the next two years.
- The document summarizes the state of the US housing market and economic outlook based on a presentation by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors.
- It finds that the first-time homebuyer tax credit was successful in stimulating home sales but much of the benefit went to those who would have bought anyway. Continued job growth is needed for further recovery.
- While home prices and sales are stabilizing, high foreclosure and housing inventory rates remain risks going forward. The outlook expects moderate economic and housing market growth through 2010 but uncertainty remains from factors like a possible Greek debt crisis contagion.
Similar to John Burns National Housing Update (20)
2. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
3. Our experienced management team stays on top of housing issues by: Buying, charting and forecasting all of the data we can, by MSA. Analyzing all of the data for a diverse group of execs. Surveying those in the field who manage thousands of new home communities, and interviewing local expertise where we do not have offices. Investigating breaking news and legislation. Managing market research teams who visit thousands of communities each year as part of customized consulting assignments. Managing major market feasibility and valuation assignments. Analyzing commercial real estate trends. Pulling it all together for a diverse group of executive clients (builders, developers, lenders, private equity, hedge funds, etc.). Steve Dutra 20 yrs industry data mgmt., No Cal-based Wayne Yamano 10 yrs of analysis, Irvine-based Jody Kahn 85 Industry M&A deals, New England-based Lisa Marquis Jackson 20 years of industry reporting, TX based Mollie Carmichael SVP Lennar, Pulte, Irvine Co., Irvine-based Don Walker Former Home Builder Pres., San Diego-based Lesley Deutch Wall St. researcher, FL based John Burns Founder
4. Full Knowledge: Our Retainer clients make decisions with excellent information. Proprietary Survey Highly accurate report on market conditions within 4 days of monthend. Banks /Manufacturers Housing’s implications on related industries. Best Data We spend a fortune on data that we will provide in Excel upon request. US Housing Forecast Complete history and charts on 60+ indicators, including forecasts. Industry Contacts and Knowledge We can introduce you to the players. Regional Analysis Complete data and analysis by MSA. Leading Research We answer the tough questions. Builder Market Conditions Look up each builder’s markets and community count by market. Consultants We are trusted advisors on big decisions. Local Expert CallEach month, we record qualitative feedback from our local market experts. Special Research We give our clients an early “heads up” on pertinent issues. The Summit Our diversified client base meets to debate the issues and learn from each other. Consultations We help you pull it all together.
5. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
6. The news since Halloween has generally been very positive.
7. Be more bullish! A lot has changed in 16 weeks. Summary of Positive Surprises Opening of the debt markets Tax credit extension and expansion NOL carryback extension No major changes to FHA Falling Mortgage Rates Better employment picture Rising land prices
8. The debt markets opened up, even to builders whose target share price (by several analysts) was $0. Impact: More builder confidence, more competition and more liquidity.
9. The tax credit was extended and expanded to move-up buyers.. Impact: Muted Dec / Jan sales decline.November closings were pushed to December. Buyers with renewed confidence will buy this Spring.
10. Public builders will receive more than $4.4 billion in tax refunds. The recent extension from 2 years to 5 years will reduce their Debt/Cap by 9%. Impact: Big Positive. Better balance sheets will result in more competition for home sales and land acquisition. The tax ruling saved a few builders and increased the cash position of all builders.
11. An insolvent FHA will keep insuring loans with minimal changes. Impact: Slightly Positive. We were anticipating continued support, but with more stringent underwriting than proposed. Source: Citi
12. Fixed Rates are down slightly from August, with more optimism that they will stay low. Impact: Slightly More Positive We were expecting a slight upward trend.
13. Employment losses were at their worst in August, and have recovered better than anticipated. Impact: Slightly More Positive We were expecting recovery, but not quite as quickly.
14. One result has been that the land market has heated up. Impact: Positive for the economy. Starts and sales will rise more quickly. Banks will lose much less on disposition.
15. In the meantime, housing hasn’t been this affordable in 30+ years, at least! $1,000/Month! Half of all mortgages today requires a 5% down payment and cost less than $1,000 per month.
16. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
17. Big Bet #1: Mortgage rates.We assume they stay low and then rise to 7.0% and 7.5% in 2012 and 2013
18. Big Bet #2: Job GrowthWe assume jobs turns MoM positive in July 2010, YoY positive in January 2011, and 2% thereafter.
19. Big Bet #3: Government Intervention will disappear in July. Housing: $8,000 / $6,500 Federal tax credit to buy a house through June 2010. Mortgage Rates: Will stay low. Down payments: Mostly 5% or less required through the FHA. Economy: Should have mild job growth by mid-2010.
20. Down Payment is a Huge Obstacle.Government low down payment programs comprise 59% of new home sales.
21. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
23. Layoffs and Option ARM resets have driven foreclosure starts above 3 million, and they will stay high for years. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
24. At least 7 MSAs had more pre-foreclosure notices than sales in the last year.
25. … so where’s the supply? REO is not the problem, because banks sell quickly The problem is the massive number of delinquent homes that will eventually be sold as REO or short sale 14.4% mortgage delinquency in U.S. =5 million units Shadow Inventory =10 months of shadow supply … and growing
26. Total Filings are rising faster than REO filings, showing growing shadow inventory of REOs.
27. CA, FL, NV, and AZ are where REO sales will be highest.TX, Northeast, Atlantic and the Midwest will haveless REO distress Quarterly Foreclosure Notices Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
28. CA, FL, NV and AZ have Highest Delinquency >30% Delinquency: Ft Myers, Naples, Miami, Orlando >25% Delinquency: Merced, Stockton, Riverside-San Bernardino, Modesto
29. FL, Inland CA and Chicago Will Be Hit Hardest by Shadow Inventory 21 months: Chicago 20+ months: Riverside-San Bernardino, Bakersfield, Fresno 24+ months: Orlando, Miami
31. Closer look at Methodology:Riverside-San Bernardino Shadow Inventory 2) Metro adjustment based on relative ratio of NODs per mortgage 1) State-level mortgage delinquency from MBA 3) Estimate of mortgage delinquency for metro 4) How many of the delinquent loans will become supply? Used a range of liquidation probabilities
32. 5) Total mortgages from Census American Community Survey x x = Metro Mortgages Metro Delinquency Liquidation Probability 6) Subtract currently listed shadow units RESULT: 115K to 155K units of Shadow Inventory
33. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
34. Home prices are back to 2003 levels in many markets. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
36. In fact, owning is now cheaper than renting in many marketsSacramento homeownership is $41 per month cheaper than renting Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
37. Affordability is the Big Positive Elephant in the Room We are placing more emphasis on affordability – Sensitivity analysis shows us that rates could go to 7.5% and housing would still be historically affordable. If prices rise 5% and rates go to 8%
38. Very few markets have an affordability problem(dark red only) Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
39. New home price erosion is almost over. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Feb. 2010 survey of 2,000+ new home communities.
40. Pricing softened a bit in No Cal last month, but had been flat prior to that.
41. Potential Upside is Affordability. Housing will still be affordable if prices go up 5% and rates rise to 7.5% (our 2013 forecast).
42. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
43. Methodology 1: The need for more homes. Zero. Housing Stock = Too much Normally, we need 1.7 million total homes constructed every year (1.3 mil new households + 400,000 for replacement and 2nd homes), but we exceeded this for 5 consecutive years, and have about 2 million more vacant homes than needed. Demand = 0 A growing number of adults with jobs creates demand. We’d like 2 million jobs / year (1.5%), but we have 4.1 million losses (-3.0%). Affordability Favors Homeownership Payments: We’d like Payment / Income of 38% and we have 27%!! Price: We’d like Price / Income of 3.7 and we have 3.4!!
44. Demand: Adults with incomesEmployment losses are significant and widespread, but this is improving quickly. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
45. MSA data is calculated YOY (purple line), but monthly employment losses have stabilized (columns).
46. Signs of job growth are emerging. Look for temp hiring, more hours worked, and bank credit for businesses as early indicators. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
47. So Cal’s 1990s recessionary downturn lasted 8 years Similar to Current U.S. Job Losses: So Cal lost 7% of its employment base from 1990 – 1994 and didn’t recover all the jobs until 1997 “L” Construction Recovery: So Cal construction remained very low for 8+ years “V” Price Recovery”: So Cal prices fell 22% from 1991 – 1995 and did not recover full values until 1999
48. Excess Housing StockWe have almost 2 million excess vacant homes, all added since 2002. } 500K Meant to Be Owner Occupied Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
49. Homeowner vacancy has never been close to this high, showing a real demand for no more homes constructed purely based on the need for shelter. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
50. Houston’s 1983 oversupply downturn lasted 9 years “L” or “U” Construction Recovery Construction in Houston fell 88% from 1983 to 1987, and stayed low through 1996. V Price Recovery Houston home prices fell 25% from 1983 – 1987, and did not recover full values until 1992.
51. Standing inventory has shrunk to the point where new home construction will begin again, purely for business reasons. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
52. Forecasting “U” Construction at Low Levels:Single-family construction is at the bottom. Lack of construction financing will keep construction low Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
53. New home sales are bottoming, but won’t reach 1996 levels for at least 4 more years. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
54. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
55. Methodology 2: The ability to sell homes. Excellent! But… Demand = 5.8 million The norm is that 4.6% of all households buy a home every year, and we are at 5.2%. For-sale Supply = Normal, but… The norm is 7.3 months of resale supply, and we have 7.2 months. 5 million Shadow Inventory homes will soon be for sale though! Affordability Will Help Cushion the Shadow Inventory Blow Payments: We’d like Payment / Income of 38% and we have 27%!! Price: We’d like Price / Income of 3.7 and we have 3.4!!
56. Months of Supply of Homes For Sale Measures the Balance of Demand and Supply. The Long-Term Averages Since 1982 (first year of supply data) are: 3.6% home price appreciation ( ~0.9% in real dollars) 7.3 months of resale supply In the last 13 months, supply has fallen from 11.0 months to 7.2 months.
58. Strong Home Buyer DemandIn CA and FL, resale sales are increasing rapidly from very low levels, while they are falling in Texas and elsewhere. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
59. Sales volumes are actually above historical norms, thanks to investors and government intervention Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
60. New home sales per community is still less than half of norm, but has been relatively stable for 9 months. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
61. Data Date: Dec/Jan 2010 / Pub: Feb 2010 Resale Months of Supply is very low in the West, where prices are trending up, and high in Florida. Still high in FL
62. PRESENTATION ORGANIZATION JBREC Resources 16 Weeks of Positive News You Have to Make 3 Big Bets The Big Negative: Shadow Inventory The Big Positive: Affordability The Need for More Homes The Ability to Sell Homes Conclusions MAXIMIZE REWARD / RISK
63. So We Have Two Elephants in the Room. The Positive Elephant Affordability The NegativeElephant Shadow Inventory
80. All markets have a poor grade for risk, but there are more markets on the upswing than the downswing. Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting Housing Industry Market Monitor, Feb. 2009
81. What Would I Do With This? Look at Price / Tangible Book because that is how the builders look at acquiring each other. Pay attention to entry-level and retiree focus. Pay attention to management’s willingness to bet heavy on land. Pay attention to geographic concentrations (see our monthly report)
83. Builders’ Market Supply MetricsBased on Geographic Concentration Brookfield and Meritage have less downward pricing pressure based on the markets they are in Brookfield heavy in CA Meritage heavy in TX